CheeryO
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Posts posted by CheeryO
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2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:
Some folks here think he's better than Schoop.
Villar's WAR numbers have been slightly higher than Schoop's for the past two years. That pesky WAR again. Schoop will probably always be dogged by inconsistency. Feel bad for the Brewers. They traded for the 2017 Schoop and got the 2018 version.
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3 hours ago, bobmc said:
They'll be sure to pump gas on the fire!
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13 hours ago, OrioleDog said:
The thing is, we don't really do iBB's as a team anymore (only Astros have fewer this year).
Tonight tie game, 2 out, man on 3rd, Givens pitched to Trout and struck him out. Even Thorne and Palmer in the booth started out "no way Trout gets to hit here", then were mildly surprised when we pitched to him.
Trout has never gotten a hit against Givens. That's probably why they pitched to him.
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2 hours ago, ThomasTomasz said:
I would've understood letting Cruz ($8 m) and Markakis ($15 m) walk, but instead signing Scherzer ($30 m AAV with a lot deferred) or Jon Lester ($25.83 AAV.) That team in 2014 desperately needed an ace starter, and that would've been a huge boon to the 2015 and 2016 squads as well.
Once we failed to grow the arms, we should've bought one. We had plenty of resources coming off the books to improve the major league roster, but added Travis Snyder and that was it. We should've been in on both Scherzer and Lester, however, we all know how risk adverse Angelos is, and the last round of big spending contracts didn't work out in 2005, so that was that.
In retrospect I agree the O's had really no chance at competing during the Showalter/Duquette years unless they had signed someone like Scherzer or Lester. It didn't seem obvious at the time, but if you can't draft and develop or trade for a Verlander, Kershaw, deGrom or Sale or some other clear "ace", then you have to go get one on the free agent market to have a real shot at a title. The first free agent examples that comes to mind are Sabathia putting the Yankees over the hump in 2009 and also David Price finally putting it together last season for the Red Sox.
Ever since the O's traded Erik Bedard the O's have been in desperate need of an ace starter -- and one could make an argument he wasn't an "ace". He was great for a few years but ultimately could not stay healthy and declined fast (after being traded). Chen and Tillman had some excellent seasons but certainly were not aces. I'm sure a lot of people would say the O's have not had a true ace since Mike Mussina.
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1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:
Cashner wasn't a big contract..... Belle, Davis, Cobb, Tejada, Palmeiro are examples.
Davis was a mistake as it was inflated by Angelos negotiating with himself. But most fans wanted Davis resigned, even if they won't admit it now.
Yeah, but I doubt many fans who cared thought Davis was worth that much for that many years. Most fans don't think about contract disaster when it comes to sport. But unless my memory is wrong I believe there were plenty of voices on this board that bemoaned the Davis deal when it was announced.
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3 hours ago, Roll Tide said:
The Orioles have had terrible luck with their big contracts.
If I give a big contract to a player few other teams are willing to sign to a big contract, is it terrible luck or just a terrible contract? The worst that initially come to mind: obviously Chris Davis and I guess then Ubaldo Jimenez. That said, the O's have been on the positive end of some bigger contracts too -- the first two coming to mind are Miguel Tejada and arguably, funny enough, Andrew Cashner.
Tejada was lucky for the O's in that neither the Yankees nor the Red Sox needed a shortstop when his free agency came up. His signing was pretty much a no-brainer -- at least it seemed like it at the time. Too bad the O's never went after any of the big name free agent pitchers -- not that there are that many worth the risk. Scherzer would have been that guy imo.
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On 7/17/2019 at 4:54 AM, DrungoHazewood said:
Right now Martin hits about as well as Belanger, arguably worse considering context. But he's about 30-40 runs worse than Belanger with the glove per season. It's a stretch, but I guess I could see him growing into being an acceptable hitter for a shortstop, say a 70-80 OPS+.
I see no path for him to make up 30-40 runs on defense a season. Occasionally you'll see a player go from below-average to excellent with the bat. Sosa. Chris Davis. Hughie Jennings. Melvin Mora. But I don't think I know of anyone who ever went from minus glove to a plus-plus glove at a key defensive position. Or any position, really. Defense usually peaks the moment a player hits the majors, or maybe before but we just don't see that.
My first impression of Martin was that he's a poor man's Mark Belanger, but when I looked at his numbers I was surprised to see he's considered to be an average SS at best. I just assumed he was great with the glove because he's so bad with the bat. He must be an all ceiling kind of guy because the way he's playing now he doesn't even seem like he could stick at AA at his age.
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Best case scenario is I guess Richie Martin could end up being a poor man's Mark Belanger (if you're old enough to remember Mark Belanger). But that is probably very unlikely. Is Richie Martin even that good with the glove? His DWar for the season is -0.5 according to BR.
The O's have to be better with Villar at SS. Most appear to think Villar definitely gets traded, at least to get rid of his salary I'm assuming. I'd like to see Villar stay but with his salary he's probably too expensive to keep him. I can't see another team giving up a huge amount for Villar, but he does play an important position pretty well.
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I'm thinking the Front Office's real job for the next couple of seasons will be occupied at the minor league levels.
Barring a Mancini trade or maybe cutting Chris Davis -- neither of which I think happen anytime soon -- there are hardly any meaningful moves Elias can do at the Major League level this season. This may be true for next season too.
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7 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:
This is where I am. @glenn__davis isn't necessarily wrong, it's just that you've highlighted the outcome that seems to matter the most, IMO, as we were all thinking we were going to have 4 or 5 stud starters that would propel us to the top of the AL East for years. And that one average ML starter (Tillman) wasn't ours to begin with. Doesn't take any shine away from what Tillman accomplished but he wasn't completely developed here, further adding to the frustration of the Orioles ineptitude for drafting and developing pitching.
Britton was fantastic but we were all hoping he'd have turned out to be a good starter. Captain Red Face was a bust and as happy I was for Arrieta to go on and find greatness, the fact that it didn't happen in Baltimore matters.
First of all, the years Tillman was good he was certainly better than average. His achilles heel was he threw too many pitches to get the job done, but he had three seasons where he had a WAR of better than 2.5 and two seasons where he had a WAR above 3.5. Second, as another poster already mentioned, Tillman discovered and developed the pitch that put him over the top while in Baltimore with the help of Baltimore coaches. So he did develop while in Baltimore.
I'm no expert but my feeling is that it's not a failure to develop pitching being the big problem with the O's; but the failure to go get good young pitchers in general -- be it through the draft, through trades or in the international market. Tillman was one of the good ones they did get through a trade, Wei Yin Chen was one of the very rare good ones they got on the international market, while Arrieta is the best example of a Baltimore draftee who "developed" very well -- just after he left Baltimore.
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11 hours ago, glenn__davis said:
The original "Cavalry" has gotten a bad rap over the years in my most humble of opinions. The Big 4 there really were Matusz, Tillman, Arrieta and Britton. Those 4 produced:
Tillman - Above average starter on a contending Orioles team. De facto ace of the staff that really had no true #1.
Matusz - Decent LOOGY, albeit for not a very long time.
Britton - One of the best relief pitchers in the game for several years.
Arrieta - CY award winner....just not with us.
Ultimately those 4 produced about as well as could reasonably be expected. The only real negative is that none developed as a true shutdown ace for us. Arrieta finding himself elsewhere really was the killer.
I think David Hernandez was the other guy that some considered to be part of the "cavalry". He's not remembered as much because he worked mainly out of the bullpen and got traded. He's been a pretty decent if not great reliever since.
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1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:
I'll be shocked if they are so blatant that they don't spend on the draft. That is easily tracked and would be newsworthy on both a local and national level.
Agreed, my point was more that maybe they didn't want to empower or spend big on things outside of the draft last year until they replaced both Duquette and Showalter. If they don't empower Elias to spend on international players (among other things) this year, then it will be time to get suspicious.
On the other hand, the other thing that is always lurking over the shoulder of the Angelos family is the situation with MASN. If atomic is right that they will continue to be cheap all over the place, legal tie ups with MASN could be their excuse, whether it's legitimate or not. You also have to wonder that if the Angelos' keep butting heads with MLB and the Nationals over the MASN issue they'll come under strong pressure to sell the team.
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6 hours ago, Tony-OH said:
That's what happens when you have no long term plan for success and an owner who did things on his own accord. Hopefully both are different now. We know Elias has a long term plan, but the question is, will John/Lou be able to stay in the background and give him the time to implement said plan. All the sighs so far seem to point to yes, but time will tell.
After all, Daenerys was all breaker of chains and doing good until she ultimately went all mad queen and laid waste to the city and the people in it. Clearly this is fiction, but the point is, only time will prove what kinds of owners John/Lou will be.Well said, and I agree with you; but it looks like others on these boards are not convinced John and Lou have the will to spend money and turn things around. I think we'll know a lot more after the draft and after signings start to happen.
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1 hour ago, atomic said:
They would'n't spend money on the Cuban international signings last summer. They didn't sign one guy to a contract even of a million dollars this off-season. They were able to get rid of O'Day's huge salary. I am not sure what more evidence you need. There is no news of them planning to build a new facility in the Dominican Republic. Hyde was probably the cheapest guy they could get as he interviewed for something like 6 managerial jobs this off-season and was turned down.
We don't even have a scouting director do we?
They may have decided not to spend real money until they had a new GM in place for awhile with a vision and a plan. If they pinch pennies from this year's draft going forward then it could be time to really question and blame. It couldn't have been easy not only to take over from their father but completely change direction too.
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4 hours ago, OFFNY said:
o
Please don't ........ like Malike, I have always said that a dry sense of humor isn't dry if you have to insert an emoticon, informing the readers that you are being humorous (which makes the humor no longer "dry.")
o
Having a dry sense of humor on a message board --- with people you don't know -- is difficult. Jonathan Swift didn't need emoticons not just because he was Jonathan Swift, but because he wasn't texting and posting his modest proposals across the internet of things.
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13 hours ago, mdbdotcom said:
According to Spotrac, the O's current payroll ranks 28th at $73,505,400. Davis, Cobb, Trumbo and Cashner account for about $52mm of that, not including deferred salary.
Thanks for pointing that out. And Cobb's contract is nearly as big a bust as Davis'. Such a shame how a team that was more or less thrifty on the free agent market for so long only started to spend wildly out of a sense of desperation.
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10 hours ago, WalkWithElias said:
Were he to get back to, say, Circa 2015 Crush (OPS .792) in order to make him a useful part to a contender looking for some LH power, the amount of money you would still have to pay get anything decent in return negates the point of calling it a salary dump.
The sole purpose of trading Davis is to remove his name from the 25 man roster to make room for someone else. Were someone to considering him worth $5M per year in his current state and the O's ate $16M, it's because Elias has decided it's that important to get Mountcastle onto the major league roster.
Yes, I agree. Even if Davis had an OPS close to .900 -- which would somewhat miraculous -- he would still be difficult to move because of that contract; and because other teams would consider it a fluke, or suspicious of the performance. Dumping Davis' a large chunk of his salary is almost impossible. Other teams will always think about all the strikeouts and 0 fors. Nobody wants an aging Adam Dunn / Dave Kingman type player.
But as long as the O's are bad they can move him to 3rd base or DH if they want to open a spot for Mountcastle at 1B. Davis, along with Mancini, can play some outfield too. Now the O's are so bad that even if Davis starts hitting like Cody Bellinger they'll still be bad. At this point it's probably better to move Davis around the field than move him off the team.
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54 minutes ago, LookinUp said:
It’s good anytime any Orioles asset has higher value. It might make roster choices harder, but maybe it means the can dump Davis in a trade and “only” eat $60 million. Maybe he becomes a .900 OPS guy again and has real value. That’s good.
Im not suggesting this is likely, but the worst case scenario is the O’s having to eat his entire salary.
Isn't total O's payroll around $50 mil this year? Not like his one terrible contract a really holding the team back from rebuilding with a payroll that low. Not like the Orioles need to dump Davis in a trade if it hurts the return in players coming back.
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3 minutes ago, mdbdotcom said:
Take Cobb with Trey and I'll take anybody.
That was the mistake they made trading Gausman. Including an underperformer or overpaid player with Trey or any other good player would negate the return.
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4 minutes ago, mdbdotcom said:
Trade him for the next Trey Mancini (currently in A-ball) and an undervalued AA relief pitcher.
Trade him for more than they got for Gausman.
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8 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:
They did win 90 last year. I don't think they are surprised by their success.
Good point, but 90 wasn't enough. They need to be convinced who they are trading for is can help them get to 93, 95 or 100 wins. It's unlikely a guy like Trey could do that on his own but he could be part of the difference. And TB is just one example, of course. If not there somewhere else.
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Just now, mdbdotcom said:
I'm afraid Givens is the only one who will bring back anything worth trading for. But if they can get anything for Trey, they should do it, by all means.
Trey probably won't bring back a top 50 prospect, but there's point in acting like the O's should trade him for just anyone they can get for him.
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1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:
One is also proven in the majors.
Well let's just trade everyone.
Yes, you're right, no point in trading everyone or even anyone unless the trades are meaningful.
I hate the Yankees
in Orioles Talk
Posted
Not just the Astros. The Yanks most likely have to get through the Twins or Indians too -- two very good teams.