kidrock

Very helpful. Great analysis. Seems like even in many of the games they lose this year, they are fairly close games. You have to go back to the Jays or Rays series to find a game that they were truly out of by the 7th or 8th inning.

I am certainly enjoying it. Just interested to figure out why.

Do you think that part of the reason is that they have the right defender in Left? Hays seems to have good, though not elite range to go along with a pretty good arm. Seems to me that's what you really want with the new left field dimensions.

It really does feel like a big uptick in defense plus the wall has gotten the team out of jams/innings much faster. Thus, preventing the gassing of the bullpen. All it takes is one out to prevent an awful inning/game. Having Hays with his above average speed and strong arm in left fits pretty well.

Hey O's faithful, I have been a fan of the O's since 1999. Though, I am not nearly as knowledgeable as some of the cats on here. Can someone please explain in laymans terms, what the heck happened to the team? Why have they, as a team, exceeded expectations so much. Is it really bullpen and defense? When I look through the stats, they just don't seem like they should be over 500. Is the team's defense really that good? Is the bullpen that good? Are some of these starters better than the general public thought? Is Adley really a 5-10 game improvement from one person? Is Elias' player development finally starting to work? Thanks

Luke Scott had a career .821 OPS. That's really good. Seems like overall health issues really killed him. He played more than 131 games just once (148).

I am happy and would love for him to heat up. I actually started this thread because I have always had a soft spot for him, but couldn't even justify him anymore to my biased self.

Exactly, and maybe a couple bucks saved due to the time value of money. This could have happened 2 years ago.

Agree - my point was that it just doesn't save much money.

This team is on a budget and they are investing their budgeted dollars into international scouting and facilities along with improved analytics. While 5m may not seem like much, it buys a lot of scouts, facility improvements and analytics people/machines. Not trying to be combative, but 6m matters to this club.

That's my interpretation, but agree, it is not clear. At the end of the day, this doesn't really save all that much money. The O's get some time value of money benefits and maybe they save the 6m of next years deferred, but that's it.

I think this saves the O's the 6m deferral of next years salary. The 17m in cash he would receive next year is split over 3 years.

Bob Nightengale said he will still be paid, just deferred over 3 years.

I have been pretty patient as I think he has some really good OBP skills. But I am at the point where I just don’t see his skills translating enough. He just doesn’t have enough of a hit tool, defense tool or power tool to pair with his OBP. I really liked him and was able to look past the occasional defensive gaff. I’m not an expert at all, so I ask the hangout faithful: am I missing something? I really want to see something in him, but OBP isn’t enough, you need to have some other skills. He swings and misses routinely.

I think I worded it poorly. My point was that it takes more than just Grayson and Adley to build a championship team. Not only do we need those guys to pan out as stars, we need a ton of depth and mid-level talent. But even acquiring that many stars is difficult.

Perhaps I worded poorly. I meant that the support cast and depth is going to take time to build out. Maybe Grayson and Adley become stars, but there is a lot of mid range talent that this team needs to develop/acquire.

True, but it is incredibly difficult and requires a ton of injury luck.

Exactly. Elias wants a talent pipeline. Not some quick fix compete for 4 years window.

That's exactly my point. You see these teams with 3-5 stars who still sit at 500. I think it is going to take 4-5 to truly assemble enough stars and supporting cast.

I'm not knocking Elias. I know some are frustrated with him, but I am happy with his progress. He's not perfect, but I like his plan/vision. Just don't think this team is less than 4-5 years at a minimum away from getting 90-100 wins

You worded your post better than my original post. I just don't see this team competing for a real championship for a while. 500? Sure, maybe by 2023. But when guys like Adley, Grayson, Gunner, DL, etc come up, we cant expect them to produce year 1 at a high level. They could, but it is unlikely that they all compete at a high level right away. Because of that, I think Means and Mullins should be traded if the right offer comes across. I would not trade them just for the sake of trading and don't think that Means is at peak value right now. But I wouldn't be holding on to players in hopes that we compete by 2023. I think its a given that Mancini won't be here by the time we are relevant, but I'm not sure what value he has in the market.

Fair points. I'm still struggling to see a 90 win team in 2-3 years from now, let along a 95+ win team that can take it all.

Yes, absolutely terrible.

After reading through an article on who the Cubs may potentially trade away, I began to think that we are further away in the rebuild than I originally thought. They have many decent to plus players who many think they are going to trade. If they can't compete with a core of Bryant, Rizzo, Baez, Kimbrel, Hendricks, Davies, Wisdom, it makes me feel like the O's are just so far away. Maybe I am being foolish or dramatic, but look at St Louis, Wash DC, Atlanta, Philly, NYM. All have much better rosters, yet they are all around 500. The Braves weren't doing that great before Acuna got hurt from what I remember. Am I off base here?

Agreed. Really seemed to focus on guys who could make contact. There need to be some players who can beat the shift and put the ball in play. Hoping he is ahead of the new trend.