Bubble Buddy
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Posts posted by Bubble Buddy
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I actually enjoyed the article. There wasn't a 100% clear reason for the improvement, but they looked at a lot of different factors. Two takeaways for me: The reduction in ground balls and the improvement against off speed pitches.
It could be temporary, but I definitely like to see the improvement against off speed stuff as it's one of the biggest hurdles once you get to MLB. Definitely sounds like an adjustment to me that could be sustainable. He's gone from very poor against them to average, while still mashing fastballs.
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On 6/6/2019 at 9:31 AM, Frobby said:
He’s almost always been inconsistent in the first half of the season, then gets his act together. But viewed as a whole, his performance is disappointing. Still topping out at 98 yesterday. He’s just not that good.
I thought he could put it all together. But the further we get along, the clearer it is that he is just a two pitch pitcher and that was basically the scouting report out of college. And even the splitter isn't the most reliable second pitch. When he has the slider going, he can be dominant. But he's never developed it consistently and doesn't look like he will.
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13 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:
With the Nats Severino walked in 8.9% of PAs. With the O's it 10.0%. Small uptick.
With the Nats Severino had one brief, 33-game stint in AAA where he OPS'd .756. His overall AAA OPS is .664. His career minor league OPS is .642, and his career OPS as a pro, including this year, is .645.
Kinda reminds me of Sandy Leon. Now Pedro is younger, but certainly signs point to him crashing back down, or becoming a huge outlier.
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Good little write up on fangraphs. I feel like it just puts some numbers to what we've been seeing. Means may be able to be a #4/5 if no further improvement is made. If he can add an effective breaking ball, perhaps this is just the beginning.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/john-means-changeup-means-business/
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13 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:
I sure hope he can show he has mastered the level at some point.
Kid is 22. 39 games at Norfolk. He's obviously kicking A right now, but I don't have an issue with him staying down there at least half a season. We'll obviously get to see exactly what the FO does with a real prospect soon and it will be interesting to see how they define "master".
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3 hours ago, BohKnowsBmore said:
Surprised nobody has mentioned Givens. ERA is now under 3, K/9 is past the 9.0 threshold, he's got a WHIP of 1.125 (actually below career) and he's got saves. He may not be the most deserving reliever or player on the Os, but relievers tend to be one of the easier guys to work onto the roster.
I wonder if people on here are thinking he may be traded by then. I know that rumor came out that he was on the market.
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1 hour ago, Aglets said:
Currently slashing .302/.378/.492 at Bowie.
Hasn't failed at any level of minor league baseball yet.......is he a future piece?
Definitely should be encouraging that he's kinda bounced back and is putting up good numbers at AA right now. Struggled a bit end of last year. Hopefully he can keep it up.
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21 hours ago, Cy Bundy said:
How Reputable is MLBPipeline? Nice to see we have 4 guys in there (that I counted, although I think it should be 5 guys if Rodriguez is our #5 guy)
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3 hours ago, LA2 said:
Guthrie, Millwood, Matusz, Arrieta, Bergesen. Actually had a semblance of a rotation then. Not much of a record, but except for the future CY Award winner, they made their starts and averaged close to or over 6 innings.
Kevin freaking Millwood. Haven't thought about his season with the Orioles in a long time.
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4 hours ago, Frobby said:
I’ll go to my grave wondering what happened to Matusz.
As to Means, we deserve a pleasant surprise.
Me too. The experience of watching him rise and then fall off a cliff as a starter has definitely kept me cautious about putting hopes in a young pitcher. I feel like I wait at least a year and a half before setting serious expectations.
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It's no joke that this guy now sits at 92 MPH on his fastball. (https://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=16269&position=P&pitchgraphs=true&statArr=&legend=1&split=base&time=daily&start=2018&end=2019&rtype=mult>1=15&dStatArray=FA&ymin=&ymax=)
If the change stays and he can get a breaker over the plate, what's not real about him? It's not like he's up there throwing 88. Sitting 92, with location and a change up could very well continue to play. I'm excited. When Brian Matusz was dominant for that early stretch, his change up was his best pitch IMO. Could pitch backwards, low 90's FB. His breaker is better than Means, but hopefully means can stay consistent with the change up how Matusz couldn't.
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2 minutes ago, Frobby said:
I’m feeling optimistic, but “legit” doesn’t come from one start, or even a handful. “Legit” comes when the whole league has seen a guy a couple of times and they still can’t do much against him. That said, Means’ change-up is a weapon. I think Hyde is right to keep encouraging Means to throw his breaking pitches, so that hitters can’t just sit back and wait on a two-pitch mix.
I didn't get to watch last night. It looks like he threw a lot more breaking pitches.. And he didn't get shelled? Did they look passable enough? Threw them as strikes?
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1 hour ago, sdmarkakis said:
Pretty much every writeup of Lowther has him as an MLB quality pitcher. I guess you know better from your random dismissal of him. Wells isn't a rock star but he's a guy who will likely find his way into a decent MLB career as a back of the rotation starter or mid-relief guy.
'Decent' is a low bar. So maybe you should just choose your words more carefully.
Also, isn't Keegan Akin a decent prospect? Backend starter type? Struggling a bit in AAA right now, but had a good year last year.
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On 4/28/2019 at 2:59 PM, atomic said:
Dylan Buddy and Hunter Harvey were great at that stage too. If he gets 17 career WAR like Ballard we should be very happy.
And both of those guys were really legit pitching prospects that have been beset by injury. So barring injury, it's easy to get excited about the kid.
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His breaking ball isn't great, but I thought it looked at least average a couple times he offered it up. About 80% of the time it was pretty bad, but he had a couple good ones. Control looks pretty good. FB velocity definitely playable and his control is pretty good too. If he can throw a breaking pitch for a strike, we might have a pretty solid starter on our hands.
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43 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:
Outfielders since WWII with an OPS+ between 74 and 80 through age 27 (min 1000 PAs):
Rk Player Year OPS+ PA From To Age G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB IBB SO 1 Delino DeShields 2019 77 1600 2015 2019 22-26 441 1375 254 334 60 14 15 103 167 1 362 2 Jake Marisnick 2018 79 1532 2013 2018 22-27 565 1399 197 316 61 7 44 144 83 5 456 3 Felix Pie 2011 77 1051 2007 2011 22-26 398 964 127 240 44 13 17 97 68 1 214 4 Tony Gwynn 2010 75 1054 2006 2010 23-27 366 924 112 225 26 12 5 56 107 7 161 5 Chris Burke 2007 80 1155 2004 2007 24-27 359 1020 148 254 61 5 20 94 80 1 194 6 Cory Sullivan 2007 80 1020 2005 2007 25-27 337 904 130 254 47 15 8 74 69 4 208 7 Brian Hunter 1998 79 2302 1994 1998 23-27 520 2124 307 576 100 17 15 144 141 1 365 8 Marc Newfield 1998 76 1051 1993 1998 20-25 355 957 98 238 53 1 22 132 69 4 162 9 Tom Goodwin 1996 75 1230 1991 1996 22-27 381 1103 176 309 32 8 5 67 84 0 166 10 David Hulse 1995 74 1243 1992 1995 24-27 342 1148 189 310 32 20 5 97 68 3 188 11 Darren Lewis 1995 75 2287 1990 1995 22-27 579 2022 303 503 58 23 9 135 189 0 227 12 Brady Anderson 1991 77 1273 1988 1991 24-27 390 1081 139 237 42 11 10 88 135 8 210 13 Herm Winningham 1989 77 1466 1984 1989 22-27 581 1325 148 318 47 19 14 112 122 15 293 14 Marvell Wynne 1987 78 2001 1983 1987 23-27 595 1832 215 455 73 20 18 144 133 5 263 15 George Wright 1986 79 2325 1982 1986 23-27 627 2160 231 529 88 18 42 208 126 21 314 16 John Shelby 1985 78 1015 1981 1985 23-27 356 950 134 233 36 9 19 86 45 2 185 17 Hector Cruz 1980 79 1658 1973 1980 20-27 554 1479 170 332 65 9 32 185 157 15 289 18 Tony Scott 1979 77 1370 1973 1979 21-27 466 1249 158 315 47 17 10 135 94 11 223 19 Rusty Torres 1976 80 1100 1971 1976 22-27 440 951 107 198 36 4 21 83 117 12 177 20 Don Hahn 1975 75 1149 1969 1975 20-26 454 997 104 235 38 4 7 74 122 9 158 21 Boots Day 1974 76 1289 1969 1974 21-26 471 1151 146 295 28 6 8 98 95 11 141 22 Bill Voss 1971 80 1151 1965 1971 21-27 397 1029 107 238 21 9 18 118 101 11 145 23 Cap Peterson 1969 80 1289 1962 1969 19-26 536 1170 106 269 44 5 19 122 101 11 195 24 Bill Robinson 1969 75 1009 1966 1969 23-26 316 917 89 190 33 11 16 93 70 10 150 25 Jose Tartabull 1966 78 1300 1962 1966 23-27 463 1192 154 316 36 21 2 78 77 0 92 26 Nelson Mathews 1965 78 1076 1960 1965 18-23 306 978 93 218 39 14 22 98 88 13 248 27 Bob Borkowski 1953 74 1046 1950 1953 24-27 363 971 110 246 30 9 15 92 66 3 140 28 Hal Jeffcoat 1952 76 1706 1948 1952 23-27 523 1590 190 404 84 15 16 143 81 3 202 29 Lloyd Merriman 1951 75 1038 1949 1951 24-26 309 944 113 230 50 10 11 93 82 4 93
Brady didn't just have the best career among players on this list, he lapped the field three times. Tom Goodwin (.670 OPS, 244 SB) is probably #2. Brady and Felix Pie were neck-and-neck through 27.
Interesting. Felix Pie has his moments with us. That's a good comparison for me to temper expectations.
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36 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:
It's 2019. My 12-year-old soccer playing kid throws 88.
So I exaggerate, but "occasionally hits 95" is getting darned close to MLB average.
His first two seasons his FB average was 94.8 and 94.9 MPH. So he was sitting 95. And that was as a starter most of the time.
This year it's 93.6. Definitely didn't get the velocity bump out of the pen, which is a bit surprising because a lot of guys do.
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Also, Alex Gordon has had a pretty hot start to the season this year after a few years of scuffling.
I know it's one anecdotal case, but nice to see someone in as deep of a hole as Chris bouncing back a bit.
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58 minutes ago, interloper said:
100%. The way the fans started to boo but then slowly got behind him? That's beautiful.
I think things really took a dark turn during the Palmer-Davis-Coolbaugh episode last season. I'm still not sure what to make of all that, but Cool is gone and I'm good with clean-slating all that just like Elias and Hyde probably are.
I always said it would be one of the best stories in baseball if he turned it around this year suddenly. Davis is not going to hinder a rebuild all that much if he stays. It may make folks worried about Elias' level of control in the organization and I get that. But I'm willing to let it play out.
I've thought about that situation as well with Palmer. I know we can't know all the details, but it wreaked of "kicking a man while he's down". I really like Palmer as the color guy and I know he's connected to people. But not really a fan of the way he hung Davis out to dry like that. And obviously Davis is showing he's not lazy or a quitter.
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42 minutes ago, interloper said:
They mention "raw stuff" and "94 mph fastball" and that's the thing about Mike Wright. He doesn't have all that good of stuff! When he humps it up to 96 on rare occasion, then it's a little more intriguing. But his slider stinks most of the time, his fastball is mediocre and he can't command it, and that's the extent of his repertoire.
I can't imagine they squeeze more out of him other than a couple of good initial appearances (because that's how Wright rolls), but if they do, I'll be extremely curious about it.
Didn't Wright used to hit high 90's every now and then? I feel like I remember in his first couple of starts he was hitting high 90's?
Answer is yep. He used to sit around 95 MPH. https://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=12586&position=P&pitch=FA&statArr=&legend=1&split=base&time=daily&start=2015&end=2019&rtype=mult>1=15&dStatArray=FA&ymin=&ymax=I always thought he'd be some kinda useful out of the pen. But the results were putrid.
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1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:
Seems like the Jays thought he was much like DJ Stewart. Kind of a 1st rd bust. Avg to below defense, even in the corners. They didn’t care about the base running. Not eye popping athleticism. Seems like they wanted to go with “higher ceiling” players.
The guy just plays the game the right way. Consistent good ABs and he’s hitting from the top of the order.
Great pickup.
I can kinda see it from their perspective and basically what you were saying: 747 OPS in minor league career. Not a big HR hitter. Average OBP.
Makes me feel like he's probably due for a pretty good regression. But he's been a great pick up for us and we've got room to see if he can blossom in MLB. From my amateur eye test, his game looks pretty good.
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He usually really struggles with pitches up in the zone. Took that 92 MPH heater the other way.
I hate to get my hopes up, but I'm encouraged. I honestly think so much of what he's gone through has been mental. Here's to hoping he can keep it rolling.
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10 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:
We certainly didn't pay him as a #5!
I guess that's fair. Based on his production last year and how the market has been, he probably deserved a 1 year deal at 3-5 mil. But I don't know, it was a short term deal so didn't hamper that much and hopefully he can eat innings this year.
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8 hours ago, Il BuonO said:
Yeah, he’s goofy looking. Liked his stuff tonight, though.
He has pretty decent stuff. I think he does well for this team and honestly might have been OK as a #5 last year. But everyone else pretty much sucked too. If he stays healthy he can eat some innings, which has value at this stage of our development.
Rays Offering $2 Tickets Vs O's
in Orioles Talk
Posted · Edited by Bubble Buddy
Driving down from Gainesville for July 3rd game. Just bought 2 tix and reserved an air b&b for me and the fiancee. The Trop is the worst, but ain't making the trip to Baltimore this year. I'll take in some O's baseball for $6 total ($1 service fee for each seat).
Edit: Shoot, Means is slated to start too! I am happy with this purchase.