Bubble Buddy

I enjoy player development, i.e. checking prospect box scores and profiles, farm system rankings, and then watching guys grow in MLB. But right now, we don't even necessarily have a lot of top prospects from our system on the MLB team. The possibility of having games that matter 3 years before I was expecting, plus before we've really graduated a lot of players from our system? Sign me up. The last time we had meaningful games was September 2017. It may not last much longer, but I'll certainly be rooting for it to continue, even if it ends up being smoke and mirrors.

It does show it, I just don't think it's correct. Shows the Jays and Houston currently out and only shows 3 spots when they're should be 5 wild cards technically (if they're calling all non division winners wild card).

Can anyone find somewhere with the wildcard standings? ESPN's doesn't seem right to me as it shows TB and HOU in the wild card list, even though they are both solidly second in their divisions. Edit: Baseball reference has a useful "most likely playoff scenario" chart along with their playoff odds: https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2020-playoff-odds.shtml

I agree with this. Have no interest in taking the focus off the future. And yet I’ve only been alive for a couple playoff seasons that I really remember (2012, 2014, 2016) and they were all fun as hell. Even that we’re in this position has me watching more games than I normally would during a rebuild season. So I want it to keep rolling, because it may not be real playoff baseball in the end, but I think my mind, body, soul won’t know the difference. And if we were able to somehow make it in, that would likely mean we kept the Jays out, which would be satisfying in a season I thought we’d finish 30th.

Fair enough. I like to set my expectations low with a team like this.. lol. Go O's.

Well, this is pretty grim, http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/rpi/_/sort/sos: Our SOS thus far has been.466, 3rd worst in MLB. And then our projected SOS is gonna be the toughest in the AL to finish out the season as it stands right now. I'll still root like hell in the Toronto season if we can avoid a sweep against Tampa, but those are some rough numbers that contribute to our our more conservative playoff projections by Fangraphs.

Favorite & enemy are kind of an interesting mix. It used to be Bautista for sure on the Blue Jays. And accordingly I think I probably dislike the Jays the most of any division rivals. Also, Mookie Betts when he smashed us that one year. Both are now gone, so currently I perhaps have a hole there. Aaron Judge is a complete menace at the plate, so I guess I'd have to go with him for now.

What is ROS W %? And then is SOS foward looking or what we've already played? We've either been through the toughest in the American League or have the toughest remaining.

Whoops, thanks. I think I didn't add it up correctly the first time. Was a 13 game stretch. 5-4 would leave us 1 game over .500 headed into harder part of schedule.

After salvaging a split with the Red Sox, I'm hoping to grab at least one game from Tampa. And with the surge that the White Sox have made, it would set up a really interesting 4 game set against the Blue Jays. In such a short season, it does look like it will be the two division rivals battling for that last wild card spot, although much can still change as we've seen losing streaks and winning streaks across MLB from contenders and pretenders. I was hoping for 7-5 in the next 12. We are 2-2. Would love to find a way to go 5-3 in the next 8. Could be tough. I think the most likely path would be 1-2 against TB, 3-1 against TOR, and 1-1 against NYM. Hopefully the boys get some good rest today.

I would love to somehow beat Toronto out for that spot. They’re more talented than us, but youthful as well. We gotta punch back at them next round.

DH Nunez: will be interesting to see what his 60 game totals will be. 1B Sisco: if the bat and the patience keeps up, I'd be curious to see how he could be at 1B. LF Mountcastle: Hoping he can be average out in left so the bat will play CF Hayes: Looks good defensively. Excited to see if he can regain some of last year's momentum. RF: Santander: Keep it up big guy I still am intrigued by Diaz and Mancini. And am curious if Kjerstad will be able to break in by then.

I think the next 12 games that precede a 4 game set against NYY are pretty favorable. Normally I'd be content with going 6-6 to get to 18-18 (and depending on how far we slide here, I may be), but I'm concerned that 8 games against the Yankees paired with 3 against ATL and then 4 against TB could be a killer stretch. I think we need to go at least 7-5 over the next 12. That would give us a chance to go 6-9 against NYY, TB, ATL and head into the final 6 games against BOS and TOR right around .500 with a chance at one of those wild cards.

My comment was in reference to your statement that you quickly moving in the direction that they will keep him down all season. That's improbable. More improbable that they are keeping him down for development's sake.

You don't get how people buy into the development story the organization is offering, yet the one you are leaning toward is more improbable. I'll be just as frustrated if they hold him out until next year.

I understand your distrust of the organization. I also understand the service time manipulation game. But I also don't find reason to be overly critical of Elias yet and I don't mind taking him at his word for now. And again, if he's BSing because of service time, well, that's an MLB wide problem, not just us. The article below mentions in detail the work they are doing with Mountcastle. "Executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias said this was “a unique opportunity to get some real development done,” both with his plate discipline and at his new position in left field. Mountcastle is getting targeted coaching at both." https://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/bs-sp-orioles-ryan-mountcastle-bowie-camp-20200807-getfuiiepnetbjofa7vhkcd2xa-story.html

And I'm not against bringing him up. I just also don't mind if the organization keeps him down a bit for whatever reasons they have.

Mountcastle may already be an upgrade over Smith, but that says nothing. Wilkerson certainly surpised, although he's not much of a prospect so we didn't have much to lose. If Mountcastle was destined to be a DH, then by all means bring him up. But I think there's value in trying to bring him along at a pace that's best for him. Perhaps that pace is more coaching and instruction before we try to pass him as an OF? That's my main point. Unfortunately, normally we'd get to track his progress defensively in the minors. We don't get to see how he's being coached and the reps he's getting.

I was referencing him being a safer choice in that context because at least he's been an outfielder for a long time and wouldn't be learning anew at the MLB level. IMO, yes, Mountcastle is ready offensively, but I think it makes sense to get him some reps in the OF if we're gonna put him there. Either isn't quite where we'd like them to be, but if I'm picking one over the other, I'd like to see Mountcastle have a defensive foundation and position (in theory) before throwing him out there.

I think that’s fair as well.

I agree that Smith is awful defensively. I just am more measured with when we bring valued guys up and am OK if management wants to promote more conservatively because I do think you can throw a guy into a situation where it hurts his development. Diaz could be a safer choice than Mountcastle, if I'm going with the theory that they are trying to give Mountcastle a defensive foundation. I still wish that Diaz had swung the bat a bit better last year, but at least he's played outfield for a minute.

Fair enough. I think the reps and coaching could make a difference, especially for a guy that's learning a new position or two and hasn't found one he's even average at yet.

Not what I said, although I could have been more clear with the last sentence. Guys can develop in the majors, but I imagine you want them at a certain threshold to start with. And for a guy like Mountcastle that doesn't have any passable defensive position to speak of, I'm OK if they want to try to build up his defensive skillset so he's not destined to be a DH. I'm a believer that minor league development makes a difference. Some guys can get thrown into the majors and do well right away. But I think timing of when and how you promote prospects can make a difference for the majority.

The key is, we want Mountcastle to be quite a bit better than Smith in the field. And if management finds they are able to get him some reps in the outfield at camp and prep him to be better than Smith, not just marginally so, then so be it. And I think that goes for a lot of the guys we think could be quality major leaguers. I imagine management is taking a full perspective on a guy's development and wanting to bring them up when they are ready enough. With someone like Mountcastle, we might as well try to see if he can improve his OF defense with more practice reps, before throwing him out into the majors. Sure, some guys can develop defensively in the majors, but I think that's rare.

Taking a deeper look at all of these guys historical stats today, I think Severino is the most surprising and feels like the least likely to sustain according to his minor league numbers. What’s wild is a good chunk of these guys pushed their way through minor league systems by age 22. They have similar stories of doing pretty well in the minors but scuffling in the majors in limited appearances. And just from what I looked at, even Severino’s production last year seems out of nowhere. You could argue he was rushed to the majors and perhaps that hurt his development for a while and his minor league production. I feel like the rest of the guys could be legitimate role players on our next contending team, at the very least. They all did well in the minors either through their whole careers or at later points and are flashing some tools, now that they’ve been given time to develop. Which makes me excited. It’s like we’ve hit on a handful of Gio Urshela’s