Tony-OH

Well he started going more slider heavy in AAA and now his slider has become his best offspeed pitch and most used. When you look at the contour data for his fastball, he's in the middle of the plate way too much against right-handers. Still, the lack of movement and the surprisingly the slightly below average vertical movement is a bit scary.

I made this post in the Kyle Bradish thread but thought it's worthy of it's own thread for now. I may move this back into the Bradish thread at some point but wanted to get it out. I'm starting to have concerns with his fastball. Against 401 fastballs, batters have done this: BA XBA SLG XSLG wOBA xWOBA WHIFF 2022 .368 .341 .621 .637 .455 .439 16.9% RHB .500 .423 .935 .869 .616 .548 12.5 % LHB .220 .250 .268 .376 .265 .311 22.5% Those fastball numbers against righthanders are scary bad. So I looked at his fastball a little closer and the numbers surprised me. For a guy with a very overhand delivery, he doesn't get great spin rate and his vertical movement (13.9 inch) is actually below average for a 94.9 MPH fastball. That means his vertical movement does not make up for the fact that his fastball is almost dead straight (1 inch of horizonal movement) which comes out to -7.2 inches less than an average MLB fastball at that velocity making it -116% break from average. Let me summarize that for some that don't really get all of that. His fastball is very straight and doesn't have enough velocity or lack of drop to overcome the straightness. Basically his fastball needs to be located very well for success and explains why they are hitting it so hard in the zone. This does not bode well for his long-term success at the major league level an ANY role without an adjustment to his fastball or a sudden ability to locate really well.

The Jim Hunter SSS alert: Adley is slashing .333/.375/.533/.908 in his last 4 games over 15 PAs.

Haha, thanks. I gotta admit at first I was like, "What the..!" Let me add a little bit to that post. I'm starting to have concerns with his fastball. Against 401 fastballs, batters have done this: BA XBA SLG XSLG wOBA xWOBA WHIFF 2022 .368 .341 .621 .637 .455 .439 16.9% RHB .500 .423 .935 .869 .616 .548 12.5 % LHB .220 .250 .268 .376 .265 .311 22.5% Those fastball numbers against righthanders are scary bad. So I looked at his fastball a little closer and the numbers surprised me. For a guy with a very overhand delivery, he doesn't get great spin rate and his vertical movement (13.9 inch) is actually below average for a 94.9 MPH fastball. That means his vertical movement does not make up for the fact that his fastball is almost dead straight (1 inch of horizonal movement) which comes out to -7.2 inches less than an average MLB fastball at that velocity making it -116% break from average. Let me summarize that for some that don't really get all of that. His fastball is very straight and doesn't have enough velocity or lack of drop to overcome the straightness. Basically his fastball needs to be located very well for success and explains why they are hitting it so hard in the zone. This does not bode well for his long-term success at the major league level an ANY role without an adjustment to his fastball or a sudden ability to locate really well.

That is quite awesome. Thanks for sharing. As a Dad, seeing his Dad get emotional hits 100 percent in the feels. Reminds of when my son won the MIAA wrestling championship his senior year. Not at the same level as watching your kid get a major league hit of course, but knowing how much time and effort they put in to reaching a dream and getting there is special. I've been saying for some time that although Stowers is going to be streaky, he's got the best power in the system.

Thanks, I thought that looked low for as hard as it was hit. I looked at the wrong part of the pitch line. Thanks for the correction. 106 oppo at 10 degrees is really, really impressive.

Well hell, what does anyone need my analysis for then??

I looked up Norwood. He's got good velocity but the spin direction on his fastball leads to more arm side run than that vertical backspin teams are looking for now. Despite the velocity. his fastball as been pretty hittable and while his split finger will get swings and misses (42.7 WHIFF), he leaves it up in the middle of the plate too often and it gets hit. The Orioles like those high spin rate fastballs with good vertical break (or lack of drop really) and like them paired with curveballs or changeups with good horizontal break. So while velocity wise I'd say he's interesting, he doesn't seem like the kind of pitches Elias and his crew look for stuff wise.

For sure. he really needs to ditch the cutter as it's been an awful pitch for him. Batters have slashed .471/.346/.618 off the pitch and put up a .485 wOBA though his xwOBA is .372 so he's been a bit unlucky. Both his fastball and the changeup have been pretty good so you gotta wonder why he keeps throwing that cutter which he throws 31.1% of the time. I saw a slow curveball that he used in AAA last year. I'd bring that back instead of the cutter. I think it pairs better with he fastball that has slightly above average vertical drop with good spin rate. All I know is the cutter is not working for him at the major league level.

In case anyone missed it and would like to see. Notice how hard he hit that ball and how it went straight to the gap. 106 MPH to the oppo gap at a 10 degree launch angle is impressive. That's real power. https://www.mlb.com/video/00u7jzgkdtP9kH55c356/reels/kyle-stowers-first-major-league-hit

Can't believe Buster Olney is not all over this!!!

I never played in the major leagues, but I never needed a first base coach to ever do anything for me but point me to second on a hard hit ball to left field when he thought I should have a double.

No real sure why they are plying in down 1-0 in the third.

There are never any consequences for stupid base running mistakes. Hyde will just say they are being aggressive or some kind of BS. But again, this core group of players are not heads up players.

He's knows what he's talking about, does his research, and doesn't use the same old tired cliches.

Thanks, when I move guys around sometimes that last column doesn't move.

I'm not even sure his family and friends were saying that after the way he was playing.

Updated as of 6/13 with the new DSL/FCL players. Kjerstad makes the top ten as well.

Stowers is in the lineup and will his major league debut tonight.

Did I miss the group of people who said Owings was irreplaceable?

Martin is fine as a utility guy though he's going to have to tighten up his defense and base running. He seems to have finally added a little strength and can drive the ball a little more now at the plate. Saying that, utility guys can't be unreliable in the field or on the base baths with dumb errors.

Just a Little League stupid play by Nevin to throw that ball. All he needed to do was tag the runner or third base. Good Lord.

Did anyone think Perez would have a stress free 9th?

Pitched the last two games.

Bautista was definitaly not on his game pitching in back to back games. Command was all over the place.