Frobby

Through 8/28/14 This week the Yankees went 5-2, the Indians and Mariners went 4-2, the Tigers, Royals, Angels and A's went 4-3, the Orioles and Rays went 3-4, and the Blue Jays went 2-4. BAL 76-56 92-70 97.9% 96.8% NYY 69-63 84-78 08.4% 02.7% TOR 67-66 81-81 01.4% 00.4% TBR 65-69 80-82 00.3% 00.1% KCR 74-59 89-73 72.8% 51.7% DET 72-60 88-74 68.0% 44.4% CLE 68-64 83-79 09.4% 03.8% LAA 80-53 96-66 99.9% 70.4% OAK 78-55 95-67 99.4% 29.3% SEA 72-60 87-75 42.7% 00.3% The Orioles by week: 7/31: 60-47 88-74 71.5% 49.2% 8/07: 65-49 89-73 86.3% 73.8% (5-2 this week) 8/14: 69-50 91-71 94.0% 90.5% (4-1 this week) 8/21: 73-52 93-73 98.2% 97.1% (4-2 this week) 8/28: 76-56 92-70 97.9% 96.8% (3-4 this week) So, the Yankees went 5-2 while we went 3-4 and our odds of winning the division went down by.....wait for it.....00.3%. In fact, after our Friday night win, our odds are now 97.4%, better than they were before the Cubs series began. Why? Because the Yankees are simply running out of time, and the Blue Jays are basically out of the picture. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

4-6 6-4 6-4 6-4 4-6 5-5 5-5 6-4 7-3 6-4 7-3 7-3 6-4 75-55 after 130 games. This team has been amazingly consistent.

Through 8/21/14 Over the last week, the Angels went 6-1, the Orioles, Indians and Royals went 4-2, the Yankees, Mariners and Tigers went 3-3, the Blue Jays went 2-3, the Rays went 2-4, and the A's went 1-4. Team/Current Record/Projected Record*/Playoff Odds/Division Odds BAL 73-52 93-73 98.2% 97.1% TOR 65-62 83-79 05.2% 01.3% NYY 64-61 82-80 04.7% 01.3% TBR 62-65 81-81 01.2% 00.4% KCR 70-56 89-73 73.6% 51.9% DET 68-57 88-74 69.1% 44.7% CLE 64-62 82-80 08.3% 03.4% LAA 76-50 96-66 99.7% 68.6% OAK 74-52 94-68 98.9% 31.0% SEA 68-58 87-75 41.1% 00.5% The White Sox's chances fell to 0.00% after our sweep, according to BP, so I've dropped them from the list. The Orioles by week: 7/31: 60-47 88-74 71.5% 49.2% 8/07: 65-49 89-73 86.3% 73.8% (5-2 this week) 8/14: 69-50 91-71 94.0% 90.5% (4-1 this week) 8/21: 73-52 93-73 98.2% 97.1% (4-2 this week) http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

What a shame. That could be the end for Nate. I guess it's a good thing we didn't re-sign him.

The sand is slipping through the hourglass.... :mwahaha:

Through 8/14/14 Over the last week, the Royals went 6-1, the Mariners went 5-1, he Orioles went 4-1, the Rays went 5-2, the Indians and Angels went 3-2, the Tigers and A's went 3-4, the Blue Jays and White Sox went 2-4, and the Yankees went 1-4. Team/Current Record/Projected Record*/Playoff Odds/Division Odds BAL 69-50 91-71 94.0% 90.5% TOR 63-59 85-77 10.4% 03.9% NYY 61-58 82-80 07.0% 03.0% TBR 60-61 82-80 06.1% 02.6% DET 65-54 88-74 68.4% 52.7% KCR 66-54 87-75 62.8% 44.5% CLE 60-60 81-81 08.2% 03.7% CWS 57-64 76-86 00.2% 0.01% OAK 73-48 96-66 99.7% 62.3% LAA 70-49 94-68 98.9% 37.0% SEA 65-55 87-75 46.2% 02.8% The Orioles by week: 7/31: 60-47 88-74 71.5% 49.2% 8/07: 65-49 89-73 86.3% 73.8% (5-2 this week) 8/14: 69-50 91-71 94.0% 90.5% (4-1 this week) Look how much our division odds improved in just two weeks, all the way from 49.2% to 90.5%. We went 9-3 while the Rays went 7-6, the Yankees went 6-6, and the Blue Jays went 3-9. By the way, what happens when the Orioles, Yankees and Blue Jays all lose, like last night? Our division odds improved from 90.5% to 91.3%! :beerchug1: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

Oops, late night brain fart! I fixed it. Anyway, what strikes me is that the team has done a great job of avoiding protracted losing streaks. Hopefully tonight we can preserve our streak of not having lost two games in a row for 39 straight games. We did break a streak of winning 7 straight series openers (8 if you count the solo Washington game) last night.

4-6 6-4 6-4 6-4 4-6 5-5 5-5 6-4 7-3 6-4 7-3 7-3 69-51 after 120 games.

Blowout wins (5+ margin): Oakland 25-7 Detroit 18-12 Los Angeles 17-10 Baltimore 14-11 Toronto 18-17 New York 10-16 We don't play a lot of laughers.

Through 8/7/14 Over the last week, the Royals went 5-1, the Orioles and Yankees went 5-2, the Mariners went 3-2, the Tigers, Indians, and A's went 4-3, the Angels went 4-4, the White Sox went 3-4, the Rays went 2-4, and the Blue Jays went 1-5. Our 3.5 game gain on Toronto catapulted our odds of winning the division from 49.2% to 73.8% in a week's time. Team/Current Record/Projected Record*/Playoff Odds/Division Odds BAL 65-49 89-73 86.3% 73.8% TOR 61-55 85-77 28.7% 12.8% NYY 60-54 84-78 25.3% 11.3% TBR 55-59 81-81 05.7% 02.1% DET 62-50 89-73 84.9% 79.2% KCR 60-53 84-78 34.3% 17.6% CLE 57-58 81-81 08.2% 03.7% CWS 55-60 77-85 00.9% 00.6% OAK 70-44 97-65 99.8% 68.5% LAA 67-47 94-68 99.3% 31.3% SEA 59-54 84-78 26.3% 00.2% *The "projected record" is based on a simulator playing the upcoming remainder of the season 1,000,000 times, and taking the average of all the outcomes. Strength of schedule is taken into account in these projections. The results reported above are rounded to the nearest projected win/loss. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

O I'm pretty sure that 6+3=9.

Bump... resuming this thread from last year. I plan to update it once a week or so. Only the teams with at least some remote shot are listed. Through 7/31/14 Team/Current Record/Projected Record*/Playoff Odds/Division Odds BAL 60-47 88-74 71.5% 49.2% TOR 60-50 87-75 60.1% 38.1% NYY 55-52 82-80 18.4% 08.6% TBR 53-55 81-81 10.1% 04.1% DET 58-47 89-73 87.3% 83.9% KCR 55-52 82-80 16.5% 09.4% CLE 53-55 81-81 09.6% 04.8% CWS 52-56 78-84 03.9% 01.7% OAK 66-41 97-65 99.9% 61.9% LAA 63-43 95-67 99.4% 38.0% SEA 56-52 83-79 23.0% 00.1% *The "projected record" is based on a simulator playing the upcoming remainder of the season 1,000,000 times, and taking the average of all the outcomes. Strength of schedule is taken into account in these projections. The results reported above are rounded to the nearest projected win/loss. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

I will buy your points 2 and 3. I think it is arguable either way whether Miller in 2014 is having a better season than KRod was having in 2013. KRod had a 1.09 ERA at the time, and had been promoted to closer and had 10 saves without any blown saves. He was Plan B if Jim Johnson went down. For me, the bigger part of the equation is that I really liked EdRod, despite some struggles this year. Delmonico was a guy without a position and it wasn't clear he'd hit enough to play a corner spot. EdRod has a much higher ceiling and floor IMO.

I like Miller, but EdRod was too steep a price. Last year we got KRod for Delmonico. EdRod is a significantly better prospect than Delmonico, IMO, despite having a rocky season. Miller is not having as good a season as KRod was having last year when we acquired him, though his K rate is outrageous. So, this is the ultimate "now" trade. To justify it, we need to win the division with Miller playing a significant role down the stretch, and IMO, we need to get somewhere in the playoffs.

Last I looked, we were well over .500 against the sub-.500 teams. But we just need to keep doing what we've been doing. We're on a 91-71 pace and that should do the trick.

2014 all-star break recap. Players marked with an * are currently on the DL. Baltimore -- Machado (24), Davis (12), Wieters* (60), Gonzalez (11), Hunter (18), Norris (13), Jimenez* (5). Reimold, Almanzar, Peguero and Escalona all began the year on the DL, but there is no guarantee that any of them would have been on the Orioles' roster if healthy. Boston -- Breslow (8), Victorino* (70), Middlebrooks* (72), Napoli (14), Buchholz (28), Carp (33), Doubront (19), Lavarnway* (42). Steven Wright has been out all year, but wasn't sure to make the team. New York -- Ryan (31), Teixeira (15), Robertson (13), Cervelli (58), Nova* (76), Billings (16), Pineda* (63), Sabathia* (59), Beltran* (26), Kelley (31), Tanaka* (5) Tampa -- Moore* (89), Cobb (35), Oviedo (19), Zobrist (14), Guyer (23), Hanigan (23), Myers* (41), DeJesus* (23), Escobar (16), Hellickson (92), Sands* (20). Tim Beckham has been out all year, but may not have made the team. Toronto -- Happ (13), Janssen (37), Reyes (17), Izturis* (84), Lind* (24), Santos (31), Rasmus (33), Cecil (14), Encarnacion* (6), Gillespie* (6), Reimold* (6), Lawrie* (18), Morrow* (67). I think we can stop talking about the adversity the Orioles have faced. They've been the most injury-free team in the division by far.

I was watching Manny warm up between innings. He takes the grounders right on the 3B line, at the very back of the dirt of the infield. In other words, just about the longest throw he'd ever have to make in a game. And he just throws from there, effortlessly, over and over between innings. Getting back to the OP, I think Manny is going to be closer to Jones (.825-.850) than to a .900+ guy. But he is showing a bit more patience this year, and the power is starting to bloom, too. I think he can be a bit better than Jones as a hitter, with slightly less power but a better OBP.

Boog played on better teams. There have been very few teams in baseball history as good as the 1969-71 Orioles. That is something that Brooks would say, being the modest man that he is. But Brooks won six straight Gold Gloves before Boog became the every day first baseman, so don't let Brooks' modesty mislead you. He was going to the Hall of Fame with or without Boog. I agree though that Boog had a good set of hands.

I like it the way it is, a very rare honor. And at this point, it's a little late to retire Boog's number, don't you think? Buck is wearing it, Johnny Oates wore it, Joe Altobelli wore it, and numerous others since Boog have worn it. http://www.oriolesnumbers.com/twenties.html Eddie as an Oriole: .294/.370/.498, 343 homers, 1224 RBI, 139 OPS+, 56.3 WAR Boog as an Oriole: .266/.362/.465, 303 homers, 1063 RBI, 135 OPS+, 35.3 WAR It's reasonably close, but Edide is the best first baseman to play for the Orioles. As an aside, I frequently read that Boog was a very good defensive first baseman. dWAR certainly doesn't think so: -12.6 in his Orioles career, and in negative territory literally every single season of his career. dWAR doesn't like Eddie, either: -6.4 as an Oriole, including a -0.4 total in the three years he won a Gold Glove. But Eddie certainly was the better fielder of the two.

7-3 in games 81-90. 4-6 6-4 6-4 6-4 4-6 5-5 5-5 6-4 7-3

Manny's 2014 numbers now look a lot like 2012-13: 2012: .262/.294/.445 2013: .283/.314/.432 2014: .269/.315/.423 Manny's also at 1.7 rWAR, 1.6 fWAR after 58 games played. Not at last year's level, but not too shabby. I think his offensive numbers will continue to go up from here.

He does that, we win the AL East. Simple as that, I think.

From May 31 through last night: .304/.346/.512 with 8 2B and 6 HR in 31 games. I'd take that for the rest of the year!

4-6 6-4 6-4 6-4 4-6 5-5 5-5 6-4 Right now the Orioles are 6-2 in games 81-88. It could be the first time they exceed 6-4 -- or not. I thought it might be interesting to compare our AL East competitors: Toronto 5-5 6-4 2-8 7-3 8-2 8-2 4-6 4-6 3-7 New York 5-5 7-3 4-6 5-5 6-4 4-6 6-4 4-6 3-4 in the current set. Boston 4-6 5-5 5-5 6-4 1-9 6-4 5-5 4-6 3-5 inthe current set. Tampa 5-5 5-5 4-6 3-7 5-5 1-9 4-6 5-5 8-2 1-0 in the current set. Bottom line, the O's have been steady if unspectacular. They haven't had any really long winning streaks (5 is their longest) or losing streaks (4). They've played well over the last few weeks and hopefully will continue to do so despite the tougher schedule ahead.

June 2014 16-12 record 9-8 vs. AL East 9-9 at home 7-3 on the road 1-1 in extra innings 3-4 in one run games 4.46 runs scored per game was 5th in the AL .784 OPS was 2nd in the AL .329 OBP was 3rd in the AL .270 BA was 4th in the AL .455 SLG was 2nd in the AL 1.64 HR/game was 1st in the AL (by a huge margin; 1.22 was 2nd) .234/.300/.431 with runners in scoring position (246 PA, 209 AB) 3.43 ERA was 4th in the AL 1.07 HR allowed/game was 6th in the AL 3.71 RA was 4th in the AL 3.47 starters' ERA 3.35 bullpen ERA 5.74 IP per start 9 save opportunities was tied for 8th in the AL 6 saves was tied for th in the AL 3 blown saves was tied for 6th in the AL 7 unearned runs allowed was tied for 4th fewest in the AL .57 errors per game (16 total) 14.5 UZR (7.7 IF, 6.8 OF) 10 Rtot 2.1 dWAR Cumulative through June 4.27 runs/game is 7th in the AL .740 OPS is 5th in the AL .319 OBP is 9th in the AL .265 BA in 2nd in the AL .421 SLG is 3rd in the AL 1.22 HR/game is 2d in the AL .264/.334/.405 with runners in scoring position (727 PA, 618 AB) is 6th in OPS (.738) with RISP 3.95 ERA is 7th in the AL 4.15 RA is 4th in the AL 1.04 HR allowed per game is 14th in the AL (2nd worst) 4.15 starters' ERA is 10th in the AL 3.62 relievers' ERA in 7th in the AL 5.77 IP/start is 10th in the AL 34 save opportunities is 2nd in the AL 23 saves is 5th in the AL 11 blown saves is tied for 4th most in the AL 16 unearned runs is lowest in the AL .51 errors per game (42 total) is 3rd best in the AL 19.0 UZR (9.0 IF, 10.0 OF) 11 Rtot 3.0 dWAR Conclusion: The O's were pretty good in all facets of the game in June. It feels like the team could have done better than its 16-12 record. The team hit a ton of homers, but did not have a good BA/OBP with runners in scoring position. The pitching was pretty good until it hit a hiccup in the Tampa series (other than Tillman's good game). Overall, three more months like June would have us in the playoff hunt down to the wire, but we didn't really take enough advantage of a pretty easy schedule, and didn't play well at home. Things will get harder from here.