Jammer7
-
Posts
2579 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Events
Posts posted by Jammer7
-
-
1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:
I don’t think they are a top 10 system without their top 5. I think that’s a reach.
I think they could be in the 12-18 range.
Maybe. Depends on how you value depth vs. higher ranked top 100 guys. I named several orgs that are definitely ahead of us, and some others that are unusually a bit thin. We have a good number of guys off our top 30 or so who could be much higher in other orgs. I’m no expert, and it is very subjective, obviously.
-
1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:
Plus our early picks in the draft.
What I would like to know is where the Os system would be ranked if you take away the top 3? Heck, take away Kjerstad and Cowser too, since they have ML experience. So basically, how does our 6-30 rank against other teams 1-30?
Yep, plus the picks, 22 and 31 in the first round, I believe. Maybe one of them can impact the O’s top 10.
In your scenario, they would probably still be somewhere around 7-12 or so. It depends how you rank the system and how much weight you put on “top 100” types. The Orioles top 5 are top 50 types, the next current 5-7 (includes a few that just missed top 100) and are likely in the range of top 150-200.
I just took a brief dive into BA’s org rankings. Many of our draft picks in 2023 are likely underrated, especially the pitchers who did not pitch last summer. The Rangers, Brewers, Rays, Padres, Dodgers and maybe the Pirates might be ahead of us. The Guardians, Mariners, Reds and Diamondbacks have slipped a little.
-
47 minutes ago, 52520Andrew said:
I don't view it as a concern for the major league team for at least the next couple years.
I do think there is an argument to draft someone relatively early though just because we have shown to be extremely good at developing the position. Then that player can be used as a trade chip down the line or as potential leverage when trying to get a Gunnar/Holliday extension. I don't think we need to spend one of the 1st rounders though unless there is someone we really like.
Well, yes. With injuries and trades to strengthen the big club, prospects can fill holes or be trade capital, as you said. We always need fresh optionable arms for the pen, and rotation depth as well.
The only way for a small to mid-market team, like Baltimore, to maintain a playoff team is to introduce lower cost young talent to balance out the costs of the stars. As this group gets to arb 2/3 years, some may have to be moved so we can sign Adley, Gunnar, and/or Jackson to extensions. Not to mention Grayson, Bradish, Bautista and whomever else. So, we’ll need to keep producing, albeit at less of a level than we’ve have the past three years.
-
It will be interesting to see where we are, talent-wise, in the minors after this season. Potential subtractions of Holliday, Mayo, Kjerstad, Cowser, Ortiz, Norby, and maybe even McDermott, Povich and Seth Johnson. Basallo, Bradfield, Beavers, Horvath, Baumeister, and then what?
Don’t get me wrong, it’s expected as we graduate so many great young talents. I am just referring to how interesting and exciting it is to see who will be the next stars to develop into top 100 types. This is where we will begin to see just how good our system is. No more top of the first round draft picks. True development time.
Off the top of my head: Braylin Tavera, Ayden Almeida, Josh Liranzo, Leandro Arias, Luis DeLeon, Tomas Sosa, Carter Baumler, Trace Bright, Kiefer Lord, Stiven Martinez, Emilio Sanchez and Jake Cunningham all have tools to be guys who can impact the big club someday. Can Fabian, Haskin and Wagner, or even Carter Young, take a big step forward?
Maybe Elias moves a few ML pieces for prospects as well. We have to make room for the young guys. I am not a guy who cares where we rank amongst other clubs, but it will be interesting to see where we are this time next year. If only in the context of how effective the system is working.
-
6 minutes ago, Malike said:
Burnes was the guy I wanted all along.
Me too. The return is very fair, and it hurts a little. But this is what takes a young team to the next level. Awesome deal!
-
1
-
-
47 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:
How childish. Has the team never asked him to sit on a story before? Not a great look to impress his new employer.
Unless the days off were not his idea.
-
3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:
Even if they don’t have options, you DFa them and they won’t be picked up in all likelihood.
Yeah, I agree. They are depth, nothing more.
Akin is a decent middle inning guy when healthy. Certainly expendable.
I will say that Zimm looked better with less velo. The ball seemed to have more movement with a bit less velo. SSS and all, but he looked the best at had ever seen him. Interesting that he had the core injury at that time.
-
4 hours ago, RZNJ said:
Why don’t you think Akin and Zimmerman each have an option?
Roch, back in November seemed to think Akin did.
Mateo, Akin, McKenna and Hilliard have contracts but no promises. Akin is the only one with a minor league option.
He was optioned in 2020, 2021 and 2023. Perhaps the 2020 option to the alternate site does not count?
-
26 minutes ago, Just Regular said:
Yea, fingers crossed for good Dillon Tate, but I'll admit overall for me this is in the ballpark of hoping rest helps an arm strain, and I'm pessimistic in general. I don't think you can really know until the pitcher has to throw hot amplified by real game adrenaline.
I'm used each March 1 to getting the first crop of bad news reports on one batch of pitchers where the chinks in the armor show up even in hot bullpens, and then another cycle closer to Opening Day.
If Baumann and Cionel are good, I could see the Sigbot utilizing options with one of the Tate-Hall-Cano trio who still have them. Whenever the pitching staff stacks a few bad nights in a row, Elias will at some point have the decision how cemented into the 26-man roster Webb, Baumann and Cionel are.
If I had to guess today if one of those guys will pitch for say the Colorado Rockies sometime this season, I think I'd guess they will.
Absolutely. They need to keep adding young pen arms who have upside and options for that purpose. Coulombe was huge last year. Can he be that good again?
I am curious what happens to Baker, Akin and Zimmermann. I believe Baker has an option left, the other two do not. (Fangraphs roster resource says they have one remaining, but I think that is incorrect.) All of them could be in, say Colorado, but the end of the year.
Heasley is interesting. Ultimately, I think Seth Johnson and Chayce McDermott are pen arms.
-
10 minutes ago, Just Regular said:
I could see an argument Hector Neris is not too far away from where Dylan Cease is…
We don't really know yet if the Sigbot RP pipeline with Felix, Cano will repeat results on a 3rd guy as it seems to have with Gunnar, Mayo, Basallo. It’s harder to idenfity signal there as relievers are so mercurial. Let's see if Michael Baumann has a good deathball this spring.
The first part is interesting. It is mitigated by the last part, though. Relievers are so volatile, in general.
While Neris would have been interesting, certainly, I am more intrigued by what Dillon Tate can do in 2024. He can be as good as Neris, in the same proximity anyway, and we already know him and what it takes to get him going. He should be healthy and rested.
Baumann is someone I believe they like a lot in the pen. When he was healthy, Hyde used him in many higher leverage situations, and with good results until he wore down.
-
1
-
-
To say Ottavino or Nero’s is a better closer than Kimbrel, that’s funny. If, at the end of the season, it turns out that way, fine. Kimbrel has been a far superior closer than either over their careers. If you are talking about overall value for the money, ok, maybe. I can see that argument, not that I agree. And maybe he pursued them, but they chose other teams for whatever reason.
To say Elias has screwed the pooch, good lord. They won 101 games in 2023, or did you forget? But the GM who built that team apparently doesn’t know much about his job? There are factors here we do not know everything about. The only obvious things are that Angelos does handcuff us financially and Elias will not just overpay and give away prospects. Good for Elias to hold onto his top guys. I will defend the Gibson signing, now the Frazier salary of $8 million was too rich for me. Frazier did show up big for us with a few clutch hits to win big games, though.
To look at Gibson’s 2023 season stats and point to the ERA of 4.70, you have to add in the 190 innings and 17 quality starts. He saved the pen on some other nights and stayed in longer than maybe he should have. And, he provided veteran leadership to a bunch of young guys who had never been successful MLB starters, much less in the playoff hunt.
FA’s are signing now for less than they would have earlier. Their market has dwindled some at this point. The market moved slower this year, obviously. There are still some options out there. We’ll see what happens.
I get the disappointment of not adding a top starter yet. However, Kimbrel blew less saves last year than Bautista, just for the record. And he’ll have a better defense in Baltimore than he had in Philly. We lost very little. We get Means and Tate back, though we cannot be certain what they’ll give us. We’ll have other injuries as well. Bradish and Rodriguez should improve upon 2023. Kremer should be somewhat similar to 2023. Other GM’s are banking on Elias getting desperate, and making the mistake of overpaying and jeopardizing the long term future of the organization.
-
2
-
-
My answer was “neither one,” at least not now.
Generally, I was always under the impression that you should not trade an everyday star player for a starting pitcher. Especially not a star who is under control for five more years. That said, if we get to arb 2 year with no hope in sight for an extension or re-signing him, then yes.
Pitchers break too easily. Strider might be a very durable guy, however, because of his mechanics and strong lower half. I could see an argument for him, but Kirby is kinda slight of build.
-
1
-
-
I believe Albert Belle had an outstanding throwing arm at one time. I don’t remember if he still had that as an Oriole.
-
I would rather pick up a TOR starter, but this has me tired of the process. So, I voted to go “as is.” Between Hall, Wells and Irvin, I think we’re covered. I actually really liked what I saw from Zimmermann at the end of the year as well. He was not throwing the ball with as much velo, but had better command and movement than I had ever seen him. It may have been just my imagination, and I would like to see more, but it was interesting to me.
Above it all, DL Hall deserves a shot. If we can get him locked-in, his stuff is obviously great. He could be a difference maker in the rotation, or the pen.
-
32 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:
The funny thing about saying that there is a big drop off from Basallo/Mayo to Kjerstad/Cowser is that Kjerstad was the former #2 overall draft pick that just had his first full healthy pro season, and Cowser got up to as high as #10 on some prospect lists last year.
The big drop off is after 5. However, EBJ has the ceiling to get into that convo with the top 5. Let’s see how he hits this year.
It depends on how you look at it. do think it’s a huge drop after Holliday, Basallo and Mayo to Kjerstad and Cowser. Just based on potential. Maybe the actual outcome will be less of a gap, but Basallo has 80 future raw power, per Tony. He and Mayo are generally rated as 70 power guys, and they are both large humans. Kjerstad is rated at 60-65. Basallo and Mayo have 70 arms, and Basallo is seen as a guy who can remain at catcher (premium position) despite his size. Cowser and Kjerstad may have higher floors, but ceiling-wise, the top three are well above them.
I’m not as high on Cowser as some. What does a successful Cowser look like at the MLB level? A corner OF with 55 power? Is that the profile we want, as a legitimate first division contender? To me, he also has a lot to prove about his makeup.
I think Kjerstad is a little underrated by some. Another year of experience and I think we see less swing and miss, better decisions and we see him get to his 65 power more. He’s a better defender than some say, probably about average, maybe a tick above. Maybe around the same as Santander, another underrated defender.
I am very curious what EBJ is going to look like. A true elite CF. Can he hit? I think so, and what better organization for him to learn? 80 speed and defense would look nice in CF as Mullins’ replacement in 25-26.
-
2
-
-
Tony’s list is certainly the most informed, and the most timely. The MLB list will probably be different when their preseason list comes out. That list was last re-ranked at the All Star break, I think. I’m not sure about the CBS list.
BA has Holliday, Basallo, Mayo, Cowser and Kjerstad. That list is fresh as well, and it is well-informed since Jon Meoli writes it.
IMHO, Holliday is the only untouchable. Basallo, Mayo and Kjerstad should not go anywhere, unless it’s for a crazy-good deal they cannot pass up.
-
3
-
-
29 minutes ago, Billy F-Face3 said:
Seeing Anthony Santander behind the scenes just makes me appreciate him more. Not only is he a big run producer, but Santander has such a positive attitude and he's always keeping the clubhouse fun. He's a great teammate! "Mah Man."
I agree. I think we also can confirm how much Hays means to this group.
-
16 minutes ago, Billy F-Face3 said:
That's pretty cool. You made history by making it into the documentary. Congratulations!
Pretty cool, for sure. Probably the best Orioles games I have seen in person in my life. The O’s fans were electric. We did take over the Trop that weekend series. It reminded me, and the baseball world, that O’s fans are among the very best when the team is worthy.
-
- Popular Post
- Popular Post
I just finished watching the video. We were surprised to see a close-up of my wife and I in Tampa. Great video, telling a great story.
-
8
-
1
-
Not a good fit for the Orioles, in more ways than one. Personally, I think he’s a fiery competitor, but he is not worth the money or the headaches.
-
I went with CF. Ced is very good, when healthy. A lot of leg issues for a guy whose game is his legs. If you want Ced to be productive in September and October, you need to get him off his feet more during the season.
We need to solidify the position. Perhaps Hilliard was to that end, or he might be getting Hays a break more than Ced. Cowser has a lot to prove, and doesn’t look, to me, like he belongs in CF. McKenna is out of options, and who knows if they plan on doing another move to replace Hicks’ production. I don’t think Hicks would be a guy I would want in 2024.
-
1
-
-
1 hour ago, Just Regular said:
I think its a reasonable guess Rosenthal's source was someone or someones out of Flaherty, Gibson, Lopez and Fujinami. We know the organization has a good process for running quiet, and Rosenthal has his reputation here for liking to stir the Orioles pot.
I agree, though it is likely the agent of a pitcher, rather than the pitcher themselves. It could be the bullpen catcher, the clubbies, or maybe even Darren Holmes. If there is some kind of issue, so be it. No staff is perfect. Rosenthal’s shtick is running on empty since Baltimore is winning.
-
1 hour ago, RZNJ said:
I thought you were gonna quit watching highlights?
The ball can really jump off the bat when he is in rhythm and gets extension through the ball.
-
20 minutes ago, RZNJ said:
Last April, Jorge Mateo was one of the best players in baseball. He hit for power, stole 10/11 and controlled the strike zone (6 walks/12 strikeouts in 82 PA). He had the stretch in 2022 where he resembled a plus player. There is a ton of talent there and the Orioles must feel he’s worth keeping around. I’m not defending him. Besides those hot streaks he’s been one of the worst hitters in baseball and his defense slipped, noticeably, last year.
It’s hard to fathom. He hit 13 homers in 22 and looked stronger last April but from May onward he couldn’t reach the fences anywhere. I thought about injury or steroids trying to make sense of it. It’s a mystery to me.
Yes, a mystery indeed. In ‘22, they opened his stance, probably in an effort to get his lower involved better and in sync with his upper half. Mateo, at his best, has good posture, stays inside the ball and does not swing at pitches he cannot hit well. His hand path is good, and his hands do not drift. Of course, when he is bad, none of those things are true. Nuance seems to be something that escapes Jorge, at least when he has a bat in his hands.
In ‘22, he had a freak injury, In Milwaukee, maybe? He ran into a fielder along the 1B line, IIRC. He had been on a hot streak, and driving the ball well. I think it was a neck injury, my old man brain not really working yet this morning. He immediately went into a slump, but continued to play through the injury after a day or two off.
He is quite the conundrum. Ah well.
Keith Law Top 100
in Minors
Posted
Yeah, exactly. Nothing wrong with giving the kid some grace period as he adjusts, I.e. be patient. I am certain that, given some time to adjust, he’ll be similar to Machado in the way he made changes and grew into his body and game. He will not be in awe of anything. Jackson is different. I am all for having him start the season at 2B. Let him play and learn. Bat him 9th and watch him blossom. The game will not be too fast for him. Not for long anyway.