Jammer7
-
Posts
2703 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Events
Posts posted by Jammer7
-
-
55 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:
Baseball America released their Top 100 list today, three Orioles made the list, all three in the top 50. No Hays or Mountcastle.
5. Rutschman
35. Grayson Rodriguez
47. DL Hall
Just finished reading that article. A bit surprised, at first, that Mountcastle and Hays did not make the list. As I read on, it seems that BA values more contact and plate discipline than these two have. It is hard to understand that 100 prospects are more valuable than a 22 year old kid who dominated AAA last year and was the International League POY. He had a great year offensively and expanded his profile to a corner OF spot, and fell about 20 spots on the list...wow. He supposedly was in the next five after the top 100.
Hays may end up the Rookie of the Year, but it is fair that he was not in the top 100. Injuries and plate discipline, along with mediocre results last year in the minors, certainly hurt his case. He was in the "next 98," according to BA. Mountcastle, Hays and Yusniel Diaz were all on the "just-missed" list.
-
Looks like a solid pick up of a guy that needed a change of scenery. He was rushed up from AA three years ago and has struggled to find a role. Natural LH hitter who started switch hitting as a pro, in 2013. Not saying he’s going to be an all star, but why not pick him up and take a look at him in Spring training?
Supposed to have quick twitch athleticism and a plus arm. He was the Jays’ #4 prospect after 2015, according to BA. and was in their top 10 through 2017. I guess it will depend on Richard and the attitude he brings into his new opportunity.
-
Congratulations @Luke-OH!!! Your passion shines through in all you have done here, and I am sure it will be the same with the Orioles. It isn’t a surprise that you were snapped up by a forward thinking organization. I am pleased that it is the Orioles. Well deserved, sir. You made the OH a better place. Best of luck!
-
1
-
-
23 hours ago, Luke-OH said:
About 2100, vs 2450 for Bundy.
Although Stewart probably has an extra tick or maybe two.
If teams have figured out how to increase fastball spin other than grip substances (which pretty much everyone already uses), it’s not something that I’m aware of.
The only spin efficiency numbers that are public are the Statcast “active spin” and that doesn’t distinguish 2S/sinkers from 4S fastballs. But there may be a spin efficiency issue, his active spin is listed as 73.6% and the pitch had only 6-7in of vertical rise (not counting the effect of gravity. Drew Smyly who has similar 4S fastball spin axis and spin rate but 92.7% active spin has 9-10 inches of vertical action.
Good stuff! Thanks. I like this move, solid upside with limited risk. I wonder about his health.
-
3 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:
Doesn’t have the same spin on the 4S fastball, will have to command it better to get similar results.
What is his 4S spin rate? And, do you see a mechanical adjustment/tweak that can get a better spin rate? Is that something that as a reliever could increase where he could just rear back and let it eat?
-
2 minutes ago, 24fps said:
Hever Bueno - now there's a great baseball name. And a pitcher no less!
I thought Taylor Grover was too, but he’s no bueno.
-
2 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:
Cumberland is ahead of Sedlock and Fenter on my personal list.
Reed would probably be in the mid 20s, Tom and Palacios would be around McKenna.
Only Rijo would be up with Akin and Kremer.
Fuentes would be around Wells.
Bailey, Sharp would probably be late teens or early 20s.
Yonny is more of a Rule 5 fit than a top prospect, I’d have him over Hernaiz just because of my uncertainty about Hernaiz (he’s lower on my personal list for that reason), but behind Hall (who has more chance to be a regular).
Fermin is probably the best prospect on this list and might be a top 10 in the O’s system. He’s kind of like Hall but a better approach.
The relievers would be lower, all 20s or later, none better than a healthy Pop. It’s just relievers, and especially upper minors relievers are the easiest to carry.
Very interesting stuff all around. Thanks for all of your hard work!
i was wondering what you may think about a comp of Buddy Reed and Cameron Maybin? For me, that may be Reed’s realistic ceiling.
-
1 minute ago, 7Mo said:
Nice. That's a new name for me. He sure has upside if he's fixable.
I doubt the Orioles would select a pitcher with no shot at competing this year though, so Valdez and all the other single A pitchers are likely not going to be selected by Baltimore. They’d likely go with a guy like Barlow, or perhaps the lefty that Luke brought up On another thread. Name escapes me right now.
-
2
-
-
18 minutes ago, 7Mo said:
I'm convinced we wind up with one pitcher and one position player. Maybe we pick both or maybe pick one and trade for one.
Do you have a pitcher you would take?
I just thought we pretty much added a rule 5 type with Marcos Diplan. And we added Isaac Mattson from the Angels. My two picks for position player would be Wander Javier and Buddy Reed. Each would fill a bench role with a lot of development to do. Both are premium athletes and Reed is an excellent CF. Javier has all the tools, but a long way to go developmentally. I looked at Esteury Ruiz of the Padres, but I would want a better defensive player. Though his offensive upside seems considerable.
That said, Luke has been dissecting video on the pitchers, and I will defer to him. There is a few interesting names out there. But Dauris Valdez has huge upside.
-
3
-
-
18 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:
If the Orioles took Javier, basically they would just be stashing him for a year and maybe use him as a utility guy on occasion. Considering the way he hit last year, he might struggle to hit .150 at the major league level right now.
And I would be great with that, personally. He’s a talented kid that had some injuries, mostly a non-throwing shoulder labrum tear. He was a $4 million signing bonus. And the Orioles can steal him for $100,000. I want him, Buddy Reed and Jose Fermin.
-
1
-
-
On 11/28/2019 at 3:23 AM, ShoelesJoe said:
The debate over whether to take Hancock or Torkelson (assuming there's no shake up at the top of the draft class, and that Martin goes #1 to the Tigers) is interesting. The player with more potential (Hancock) is also the player who is more likely to crash and burn. The guy with the lower ceiling (Torkelson) will probably have a better chance to reach that ceiling. Such a conundrum.
Since 1991 the Orioles have drafted 21 pitchers before the second round, and I believe the best of the lot was Kevin Gausman and his 10 WAR in 6 seasons as an Oriole. Most of those 21 never pitched an inning at the major league level. That's a miserable rate of success, and a prime reason the Orioles have been bottom dwellers for most of that time. Somebody stated previously in this thread that the failure of our vaunted "Cavalry" back in the day proved that you can never have enough pitching. IMO it proved the exact opposite: drafting a lot of pitching (especially at the top of the draft) is a fool's game. Too many young pitchers get hurt and/or fail to provide meaningful value at the major league level for a team in the Orioles' present position to gamble on that choice.
Just pulling numbers and comparisons out of thin air for the purpose of discussion -- let's say the team calculates that Hancock has a 50% chance of being Beau Hale , a 40% chance of being Dylan Bundy, and a 10% chance of being Gerrit Cole. While Torkelson has a 30% chance of being Billy Rowell, a 40% chance of being Trey Mancini, and a 30% chance of being Paul Konerko. Who do you take?In that scenario I take the position player every time.
I lean to position players as well. But with Chris Holt's impact on the system, I am more open to a polished power college pitcher. If Torkelson can play a solid 3B, or even corner OF, I would say the decision is easier.
I am curious to see if a legit HS player enters the picture. I know we expect Elias to favor college players, but we'll see who pops up in his evaluation.
-
1 minute ago, Luke-OH said:
Both of those guys have improved since those videos. Clay is getting big sink on his fastball now, it’s 91-94mph.
Bueno is practically a different guy, he was 97-99 t100 with a nasty curveball he wasn’t even using in that instructs video. He’s definitely a long shot because he hasn’t been above A ball, but he’s a former PAC-12 starter who is 24 already with premium stuff, he’s as good of a chance as anyone to make the jump. I’ll try to grab some MiLB.tv video when I get a chance.
Ok, cool. Thank you. Clay's HR rate really jumps at you, and the sink would explain that. I did see a bit of Zack Britton there, just not the velo. Did he scrap the CB, and just go sinker/slider? Would you take Clay over Burrows?
-
I am torn on the Villar waiver, and perhaps non-tender. I hardly think Elias is a buffoon as one poster said, but I understand the emotion. I find it very hard to believe that he had any market for him at all in July, and the same now. If no team claims him on waivers, are all GM's buffoons? They all have the same decision to make, is Villar worth $10.5 million for 2020? If he clears waivers, and perhaps we re-sign him to a reasonable amount. Maybe we trade him in July 2020. It's a big gamble either way. Sign him through arbitration and he flops, or non-tender and he has another great year elsewhere. Who knows at this point, but it may just be an outstanding move.
He was exciting last year, more so in the second half, and we still lost 108 games. Without him, do we lose 112? He has had 2 very good seasons in seven years, 2016 (3.9 WAR) and 2019 (4.0). The defense can be good at times, and it can be lackadaisical. The 20 errors do not tell the story, but there were many balls he mishandled and mental mistakes. The defensive metrics do not favor him either, but not sure they have much merit.
The Orioles are his third team. There are reasons why guys with lots of tools move around like he has, and sometimes it's things that aren't always public. We do not know what all goes into this decision, but to say it is simply 'tanking" or cost cutting seems simplistic to me. There is a reason why no one has taken him off our hands for any moderate return.
If they sign Adeiny Hechevarria to play SS, maybe for $1-2 million. Or Jose Iglesias for a maybe twice that. We lose the offense Villar provided last year, but no guarantee we would get anything close to that output again for the arbitration figure he wants.
I will wait to judge the move until after things settle. These are very intelligent people running the show. And yes, I will give Mr. Elias the benefit of the doubt that he and his team know what they are doing.
-
1
-
-
1 hour ago, Luke-OH said:
Some more obscure names I like if you want to look them up or have questions.
Stephen Alemais
Hever Bueno
Sam Clay
Trevor Megill
John Nogowski (not a fit for the O’s but a favorite nonetheless)
Bueno - seems like a good bit of effort in delivery. TJ surgery at Arizona State. Was their Friday starter though. Lots of injuries have led to very little experience. Some recoil and I don't love the finish at all. Topped out in SAL last year. Pass for me.
Clay - I just watched some video, the slider flashes promise, and the hook is the get me over type and can get slurvey. Change has no depth and the FB was straight. Looks like there is more there, and seems to not get as much extension as he could. Stat wise, walk rate is 5.1 and H/9 is 8.7, 1.53 career WHIP, but K rate is 9.6 and does not give up many HR's (only 6 in 405 innings). Interesting under the radar guy.
-
15 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:
He’s got a better eye than Martin and isn’t as much of an extreme GB guy, less bat speed, but less swing and miss as well. He’s not going to hit well, but a Jose Iglesias type bat is very possible.
Alemias seems interesting, maybe as a second pick. The shoulder would be concerning, but I like the profile. Here is a useful article on him.
https://rumbunter.com/2018/01/24/pirate-prospect-watch-2018-stephen-alemais/
-
1
-
-
@Luke-OH What are your thoughts on Buddy Reed CF (Padres AA) and Jose Fermin SS (Indians A-)?
For me, Reed fills the back up CF role and is a switch hitter with some offensive upside left due to his relative inexperience and constant swing changes in his 3.5 professional years. Every report I have read says he plays an excellent CF. I saw him play a lot at UF with Richie Martin. Premium athleticism, size and attitude. He may be a guy that just needs an organization change, and he is from Baltimore originally (not that it really has any bearing).
Fermin is the son of Felix Fermin. Solid defensively according to one report I read in BA. Low A player with solid idea of the strike zone, but does not drive the ball much. Certainly should be over matched in a large role, but is he capable of filling a bench role? I would only consider him as a second round pick, but perhaps worth a flyer?
-
1
-
-
I think re-signing Mason Williams is a solid minor league depth move. I just hope he gets serious about his workouts this off-season, and comes into Spring in much better shape than he appeared to be a few months ago. Not too many major league center fielders with a belly.
He's a local kid from West Orange HS here in Orlando, which has produced many pro players. I remember watching him play as a senior. He was quick twitch and could really run.
-
1
-
-
Just now, Number5 said:
Very intrigued by his speed/defense, but it seems doubtful if he's ready to hit MLB pitching. Struggled at the plate in AA. Does have a little pop, but I think MLB pitchers would probably exploit his holes. He'd be a great guy to have in the system, but I'm not sure if the O's can spend a 26-man spot on him all year. We've already got some roster clutter, IMO. I could see a contending team with a very solid 25-man roster that wouldn't have participated in the Rule 5 draft in previous years selecting him this year to take advantage of the 26-man roster and use him as a pinch-runner/late inning defensive replacement, then send him to AA or AAA in 2021 to work on his hitting.
That’s fair, and I agree he would be overmatched for the most part. But there is a good amount of upside here. He is still raw, but he may just be on the verge of things. He may be a guy that at age 27 ends up a late bloomer like Aaron Hicks.
If you have not yet done so, read the article above shared by @7Mo. The Orioles are looking for a back up CF, and he could fill that void. As far as being able to hit enough, no one knows long term. Would you take the production of what Martin did last year, but from a guy who will not need to start much? For $100,000, I think I would do so on a rebuilding team. I’ll take him over Dwight Smith Jr. and Stevie Wilkerson, and probably over DJ Stewart for now.If Santander and Mancini are in the corners, with Hays roaming CF, he seems like a pretty good fit for a bench OF. There may be other players out there who are better picks. But at first glance, for me, Buddy really stands out.
-
On 11/21/2019 at 8:49 AM, weams said:
Some interesting talent this year. To me, at first glance, I like Buddy Reed. Excellent CF out of SD Padres organization, 2016 2nd round pick out of University of Florida. Played with Richie Martin. Super athletic, strong arm and 70 grade runner. He’s a switch hitter, and he’s had some ups and downs, but I think he just need a little more time.
He grew up just outside Baltimore, and was supposedly an incredible hockey player, and a very talented soccer player. He went to an elite private school in Rhode Island for high school. He really could be an impact late bloomer as he did not play much baseball growing up.
I watched him play a good bit here in Florida and I remember how impressed I was with his athleticism. I also remember moments where he was raw and inexperienced. He could be a steal, if our development minded staff can click with him. If nothing else, he would provide a great defensive CF to back up Hays while they work on his hitting.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/05/buddy-reed-interview-florida-mlb-draft.html
-
2
-
-
1 hour ago, birdwatcher55 said:
I'm no scout but off this info I would be looking at Martin or the second best pitcher if no big drop off after Hancock with that likely second pick.
I will not write off Torkelson, but Martin is my favorite position guy. I’m interested to see if Elias sticks with college guys at the top of the draft, or is willing to go with a HS player.
-
2 hours ago, POR said:
There is a difference between a 21 year old player in short season ball that has been playing pro ball for several years and a 21 year old college player that was just drafted this year.
Is there? No matter where you’ve been for the past 4-5 years, it’s where you are headed from here. No?
I get what you’re saying, but does that really matter in the grand scheme? I mean if he takes off, prospect wise, from here, does anyone care that he has been in professional baseball for 5 years before getting to Delmarva? Does he somehow become less of a prospect? Or is he a success story of perseverance and good coaching? He seems to be another existing talent that Chris Holt and staff have helped turn a corner.
-
3 hours ago, MurphDogg said:
They do not have $4 million left.
The started with just under $6.5 million, their top 4 signings signed for $1.5 million total, the remainder of the players certainly signed for a total of more than $1 million.
Perez in his conversation with Dan Connolly in The Athletic estimated that they would have 30 to 40 percent of their slot money remaining after July 2. That equates to between $1.95 and $2.6 Million.
Ok, my misunderstanding. I saw a tweet from Jon Shepherd with that figure. Thanks.
-
I believe I read a recent comment from Elias that quoted him as saying the O’s would spend nearly all of the International Signing Bonus $ in this year. Makes me wonder what he and Koby have up their sleeve. A bigger name Cuban defector, perhaps? They have about 4 million left.
-
5 hours ago, Frobby said:
No, that’s not the one. Here’s the one I saw, and I have to say, it is very reminiscent of Martin’s play yesterday. https://mobile.twitter.com/orioles/status/894301319506341888
Definitely a nice play. Where was the runner? Was that the VMart play?
Part of the impressive nature of Richie’s play for me yesterday was the fact he threw out a speedy runner hustling down the line. Swaggy T still made a nice play there though. Great memory.
An Early Look at the 2020 Draft's Top Prospects
in O's Amateur Draft and International Signings
Posted
Yes, agree. He has added 15-20 pounds of muscle according to two reports I have read. The Scorpions people I know rave about this kid's upside and work ethic. Solid athleticism, probably a corner OF. Not sure he can play CF in pro ball, and the arm, to me, is probably average in RF. Goes to the same high school that Austin Hays went to, Spruce Creek.