Jammer7
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On 6/4/2020 at 8:26 AM, Greg Pappas said:
My preferred list of potential picks at 30/39, excluding Nick Bitsko, whom I expect to be gone before 30:
HS SS Ed Howard, HS LHP Dax Fulton, HS RHP Justin Lange, HS 3B Jordan Walker, HS RHP Tanner Witt, HS RHP Carson Montgomery, Miss St SS Jordan Westburg, Miami RHP Chris McMahon, HS SS Carson Tucker, HS 1B Blaze Jordan
That's a really good list. The mock picks from 10-29 seem all over the place. I think you are right about Bitsko being gone, but Mick Abel (not likely) or Jared Kelley could be there at 30. I would add: Bobby Miller RHP (Louisville-would be a redraft), Slade Cecconi RHP (MIami-another redraft), Nick Loftin SS (Baylor), Cole Henry RHP (LSU), Cole Wilcox RHP (Georgia-Over slot?), Drew Romo C (Tx. HS), Jared Jones RHP/OF (Ca. HS) and Kevin Parada C (Ca. HS).
Parada is a bit of a sleeper here. He seems to be rising because of the bat in high-level competition and a solid catcher who can stay behind the plate. There is a solid amount of Perfect Game data on him. Romo is supposed to be an excellent defensive catcher who is hit over power right now. And Walker is supposed to be a above average to plus athlete and a 60 runner, so maybe he is a corner OF down the road.
As to what I think the Orioles may do, I hope they have Dax Fulton pegged at #39. If other teams are showing serious interest from 31-38, then take him at 30. I think his profile and upside is that of a top 5 pick in three years if he goes to college. He may be the only risk they take in the top 3 rounds.
I would love to see Ed Howard there at #30, they may grab him. Tanner Witt and Jared Kelley may turn their heads as well, but that might be too much risk if they plan on Fulton at #39. I think they go college otherwise. Cole Wilcox is my top pick of the more likely possibilities at pitcher, but he may be over slot as well. I like Westberg a lot, but Loftin is real solid across the board and was driving the ball more this Spring. Maybe they can save a little of the slot for these two at #30? Or maybe they stay around slot. There is not much out there about Fulton's bonus demands, but an assumption about over slot based on where he would be if he were healthy.
This is one of the more fun drafts in recent years for me. Do the Orioles stay with more of a college approach? Or is Sig's data base and modeling advanced enough now to be bolder with HS talents with less recent looks?
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3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:
Boras can't do a lot here. It would very likely cost any of these top picks a lot of money to not sign and go back to school for a senior year.
I'd be fine with picking 1-3 in next year's stacked draft.
Yes, agreed. But if he can save a little of the slot amount at #2, then great. Maybe get Boras to agree to split the difference between picks #2 and 3. Save a few hundred thousand and use it at 30/39. To me, that is the goal. Boras is likely saying Martin should be paid at full slot, maybe over.
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43 minutes ago, RZNJ said:
Don't overthink it. Martin. Torkelson if Martin somehow goes first. I think they are just negotiating whether directly or indirectly by suggesting the underslot scenario. If Martin drops down a spot or two he loses money. So having him think that they are trying to save some money on the #2 slot. Just my guess and hope. Lacy sounds good but there is so much risk on pitcher's health and the control is not A+. I wouldn't hate Lacy at #2 but I'm not for it. The HS OF is a corner guy so it's all about the bat. Martin is more proven and can likely play 3B, 2B or CF. Martin seems like a no brainer to me if he's there. He would be a complete no brainer if he was a SS. Semi no brainer at 2B. Even at 3B or CF, his overall games seems to be the best of anyone, HS or college.
This is mostly where I am. I think we will see Martin taken. He is the best player available. His bat will play anywhere. If he was a legit proven SS, he would likely not be available at #2. I would play it safe and take Martin
The Boras factor certainly is in play. Perhaps they are trying to save as much of the slot as they can for picks 30/39, which, in my opinion, are huge in this draft. Even if this speculation saves 300-500k from the #2 pick, it is worth it. There may certainly be some serious HS talent there, and it will not come cheap. Then they could maybe go underslot at rounds 3/4/5.
Zac Veen, however, may end up being much more athletic than most think. He is still growing and developing. When he gets more coordinated and comfortable in his own body, and gets stronger, I can see the Bellinger comps. He is fluid and loose, just needs to add more strength and explosiveness with training and nutrition. If Elias goes this route, it is risky, sure. But I won’t be upset with it if he saves some money and takes top sliding talents with 30/39.
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@hoosiers Good response. I agree that it would be very unlikely. We may not see either one make it to pick 30. This hypothetical scenario is the only way I would not take Martin or Lacy at pick #2. We would be fortunate to take Martin and get Fulton at #30, and that is what I hope for.
We could take Martin, and then a college starter at #30, like a Cade Cavalli or a Bobby Miller, if either is still there. And then hope Fulton is still there at #39. We’d have to go underslot somewhere, maybe the remaining three picks.
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So, a hypothetical draft of:
1 (pick #2) Zac Veen OF*
2 (pick #30) Nick Bitsko RHP
3. (pick #39) Dax Fulton LHP
Would you be good with this haul in the first two rounds? You would likely have to save some money at #2 to take the next two, assuming they are there. That would be the only way I do not take Austin Martin or Asa Lacy. You would have to not worry about the competitive cycle beginning in less than five years. Bitsko and Fulton were top 15-20 talents overall, Fulton had the TJ surgery but he is the top HS LHP despite that.
Personally, I would do this. What say you?
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15 minutes ago, Greg Pappas said:
Here's a new piece about 5 potential draft choices for the O's, from Dan Connolly of TheAthletic.com. It's behind a paywall ($).
Note: Perhaps one other (long shot) prospect Dan could've added is HS OF'er Zac Veen.
I will only share this bit on Asa Lacy:
That is a good article from Dan Connolly. In this draft, I really like Lacy a lot and would be just fine with him at #2. Though I would slightly prefer Martin if Tork is gone. Not much wear and tear this year, which is not the norm for college juniors who are Friday night starters.
Regarding Veen, I guess maybe DC thinks the O’s will be conservative here and not go HS based on the limited data. I like Veen a lot, from what I have seen and heard. Some of my Scorpions friends tell me he is the real deal with a ton of upside still. But there is a considerable amount of risk there, and none of us want to see the Orioles blow this pick. Not with Martin, Tork, or Lacy there. He could save money for picks 30/39, sure. But he may be giving away a championship caliber player in Tork, Martin or Lacy. Gonzalez is such a wildcard, and he would be a ballsy pick for Elias when he could have taken the other three. Gonzalez might be a legit hitter with more power than most think, but Elias has better be right if he takes him to save money. He would have to be Altuve without the plus speed for this pick to work for me.
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On 5/29/2020 at 10:17 AM, Greg Pappas said:
It's hard to know what Blaze Jordan becomes at just 17. I agree with you that his prolific power is his one big tool, but he may yet develop into a decent defender somewhere and develop his batting eye. Time will tell. I prefer we look at him after 39, but he may not be available at 74. Hard to determine.
Eye of the beholder thing. He’s just not for me. He has apparently worked hard to tone his body. It is hard to say what he will become, but the risk is extreme with him. I would hope he goes to college and develops an ability to hit good pitching and get to his power in games.
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20 hours ago, Greg Pappas said:
As I've brought up before, I love Blaze Jordan's upside and would be very happy to get him. His stock dropped after a so-so showing against tougher pitching this past summer, but high upside HS'ers always intrigue me.
It is encouraging to hear LHP Dax Fulton. I’ve been hoping we would take him with one of 30/39. Not a huge Blaze Jordan guy. It’s one big tool, raw power, and a 1B/DH profile. The raw power is nice though.
There are a few college SS’s and college arms I figure Elias might be looking at for one of the two picks. But there are several very toolsy HS picks that should be there if Elias wants to take a chance.
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On 5/26/2020 at 11:12 AM, hoosiers said:
Jammer,
below is the mlb writeup on Halpin. It is a bit different than your critique. As writeups go, not many flaws mentioned. Mentions Halpin being underappreciated by scouts. What I like is that he is young for his age so strength, power may be there but a bit behind in showing - reminding that . Halpin is rated 74th for the class, but I think he is going to go a good bit earlier. Maybe too early for 39 or maybe he signs for slot and we spend bigger with our third round pick. The main hiccup to that strategy is that 39 is the first pick of the second round and I think the Os are going to put out a bunch of phone calls at the end of day 1 and will have something arranged for someone who slipped into the second day at 39 - pick 2:2.
Halpin wasn't considered an elite-level player as the summer showcase circuit started last summer, as evidenced by him not getting an invite to either the Perfect Game All-American Classic or the Under Armour All-American Game. But a strong performance in the PDP League led to a spot at the MLB High School All-Star Game in Cleveland and he performed well later in the summer at the Area Code Games to put him more firmly on the map.
The outfielder often displays impressive tools across the board. He's a plus runner, one who led the PDP League by going a perfect 6-for-6 in stolen base attempts, and that speed allows him to cover a lot of ground in the outfield. He also has a very strong arm, one that's been up to 92 mph off the mound. He makes loud contact consistently from the left side of the plate and while he's hit over power now, he's shown the ability to drive the ball and was launching balls out at Angels Stadium this past fall during the Angels Elite showcase, the same event where 2019 first-rounder Keoni Cavaco showed up for the first time.
Halpin, who initially committed to UCLA but then decided to head out of state and play at Texas should the Draft not work out, might be underestimated by some scouts. Pete Crow-Armstrong is the more famous name among California prep outfielders, but don't be surprised if Halpin isn't all that far behind him.
Thanks for posting this. I read this Monday and meant to comment to you. Drastically different from BA’s write up that I referenced. Not my critique, theirs. I’ve never seen the kid. I am two years removed from most of the HS kids. I know many of the college Sophomores and Juniors fairly well. I have some info on the Central Florida kids, but that’s about all I got as a personal knowledge base.
I like what MLB wrote about Halpin. If that is what Elias sees, then perhaps he’s higher on the board. I believe Elias May take 1-2 HS kids, at most. Just based on limited data and all. Quite polar reports, but that’s how it goes. One scout sees him on a bad few days. Another sees him on a good few games. What I take from that is inconsistency would make it tougher to draft him unless you are all in on him as an area scout and cross checker.
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1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:
From what I've read (which isn't a ton) Jordan was a lot rougher on his teammates than Jones or Reynolds.
That's acceptable if you are the best player of your generation and you are one of five guys on the field of play for your team. I'm not sure how a Jordanesque attitude will play in a baseball clubhouse, especially if you end up as an occasional all star caliber player.
I agree. See Christian Laettner as another example at Duke. But he had to shut up and sit the bench on the Dream Team...lol
Remains to be seen just how far he takes it, but I doubt it is anywhere near those two. That would be something the area scout would have to do his homework on. Elias will have that diagnosed. If you win, you're a leader. If you lose, you are a malcontent or ego maniacal because you hate losing. Martin has been a baseball player for along time, so I am sure his fire is tempered some. Its a game of failure, and that is what Jordan learned as a Birmingham Baron. It's very humbling. From what I have seen, Martin has the respect of his Vandy teammates. You have to have some Alphas on a winning team. Whether anyone likes them or not.
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24 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:
Less data could help or hinder the Orioles compared to other teams. How good are Sig's projections?
Agreed. Perhaps the scouting, in-person and video, is going to lead more so in the decision making. Projection seems to need to play a bigger role. The college guys should have some amount of data, and they've been followed for several years now. Luke had great timing with his new job.
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3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:
The was posted before and I'll repeat that I'm not sure it's that great a trait.
My apologies on the re-post. Did not see it. To have the competitiveness, along with what is called "a slow heart beat" in pressure situations, I find to be a positive. I can see some downside if it makes the player try to do things they are incapable of doing. I have not seen that in his game. I suppose it could create some harsh feelings with some teammates being called out or pushed to be better, but major league players should have a thick enough skin to handle that. People lauded Adam Jones and Mark Reynolds, for instance, during the Orioles' recent competitive years for their ability to hold their teammates accountable. Frank Robinson would certainly be another from a much different era.
Can you expound on how you consider to not "that great a trait?"
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On 5/21/2020 at 8:01 AM, waroriole said:
Is Tork a given at #1? If so, I’d go with Martin. Too unsettling using the #2 pick on a SP
I agree, generally. This year is a bit different to me. The junior year of the college pitchers did not allow for much development, but also limited the wear and tear on them. Traditionally, the junior years of college #1 pitchers, Friday night starters, are when they are perhaps over-used. Does that have any impact on your thoughts, negative or positive? Just curious.
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This is a good article about Martin's makeup. To even allude to Michael Jordan, as a competitor, is unfair to anyone. When it comes from respected Vanderbilt Head Coach Tim Corbin, I take it as high praise. Who knows Martin better? No coach can teach the intangibles this young man has. We've read a lot about the performance and the tools. All of that is readily available and he has been under immense scrutiny as all top level prospects are. Every wart in their game gets magnified. The kid is a fierce competitor, a great teammate and a winner. I believe we need more of that to solidify the culture we all want in Baltimore.
https://www.mlb.com/news/2020-mlb-draft-prospect-austin-martin
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3 hours ago, wildcard said:
I agree several outlets have martin going #2. I guess I am in the minority thinking Lacy or Hancock are better picks for the O's.
Its all good, sir. Eye of the beholder and all. You may end up being correct. Not an exact science. I enjoy tossing ideas back and forth. There is not really any consensus about the first five picks. No clear cut leaders. Maybe Detroit takes Martin, then what? I prefer Lacy, really like his upside, over Hancock. Not really convinced that Torkelson is the guy if he's available. And I'm sure some here will say I'm nuts.
I just happened across this from BA. "Martin is more of a plus runner than a true burner..." https://www.baseballamerica.com/rankings/2020-mlb-draft-top-prospects/
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3 hours ago, hoosiers said:
Jammer, good to have you active during the draft.
I do like the Veen write-ups I have read. Very strong. The question I have is how much $ is Bitsko looking for. Is he looking for $3.5M-$4M - which would mean he is nearly unsignable once he gets past the first 15 -20 picks? Would he really turn down the Os slot of $2.4M as the first pick of the supplemental first round to go to college? What is Ginn's number?
I wouldn't mind trying to save $ at 1:2 and to spend the savings with our third round pick to sign a kid for $1.5M. That would give us four guys drafted and signed at $1.5M and above.
I note the two HSers the Os took in the first five rounds last year were young for the class. This year, the younger HS seniors include Jordan Walker - who could be a strong candidate for our 30th pick - and Petey Halpin - who might be a small reach at 39, but doesn't seem likely to be available at 74. Would one then lean toward Lacy instead of Martin if our targets at 30/39 were Walker/Halpin? Most of those three would presumably be done at slot or below based on rankings - though I have seen Halpin drafted earlier than his current MLB ranking in several mocks.
Thank you, sir. My favorite time of year. I have been away from baseball, in general, for a few months. I needed a break from the game and all media associated with it. I was not coaching thanks to COVID, so seemed like a great time to unplug and get away.
Great points. I have not seen a "number" associated with Bitsko. I am sure Mike Elias has done the work there. Seems likely it will be fairly high since he reclassified and he was touted to be a potential top 10 by many. His home is not far from Baltimore, but neither is UVA. And he may not be there when we pick if his number isn't high.
Veen is legit from what my Scorpion friends tell me. A corner power bat with enough arm for RF and solid athlete. Excellent attitude, hard worker, and plus hit tool.
Ginn is quite interesting, despite the TJ surgery. I have never seen him pitch, and only a little video. Have not seen any buzz on his interest in signing or a number. For me, I would think he would sign for second round slot rather than rehab for year and have less leverage next year even though he's a draft eligible sophomore currently. He would need to get healthy and pitch in college in 2022 to get his value back up any further. But then he'd have no leverage then as a senior. And major college programs will be looking at ways to maximize their 11.7 scholarships. So, older players rehabbing is problematic, especially for programs in conferences like the SEC.
Walker is interesting, huge guy with huge raw power. But the swing and miss is concerning. Long armed. He is supposed to be very athletic, surprisingly so, apparently. Never seen him. Projections have him at 1B, so, for me, he would have to be a 60 hit tool with the raw power he has. He seems to be a risky profile for where the Orioles are in this time in their cycle.
I think they will go best player available. So if it's Lacy, who I really like BTW, I could still see them going with any of the pitchers mentioned here by posters. It may be unlikely, but possible. Elias likes who he likes. I doubt he picks more than 1-2 HS kids this year. I would think he would go with one of Bitsko RHP, Dax Fulton LHP, Carson Montgomery RHP or maybe Alex Santos RHP or Jared Jones RHP/OF at one of the 30-39 picks. The other I expect a college player like Casey Martin SS, or Jordan Westburg SS, Nick Loftin SS or maybe Alika Williams SS. California has several interesting HS OF's as well. Chase Davis, in particular, with an 80 arm.
I like Halpin, but I would not spend a second round pick on him. I may not draft him at all this year with only five rounds. No tools stand out, solid line drive hitter. Above average runner, average defender with an erratic arm built for LF. At least that is what I just read about him. His profile seems like the Mangum kid from Miss. State last year. I see a grinder who should go to college.
This is an interesting draft for many reasons. Not a dominant player at the top, but it's a deep class. I expect the Orioles to pick Austin Martin. He is just a difference maker, a winner. Wherever he goes, he will get big hits. He barrels the baseball consistently. I will gladly take Lacy as well. He's a bulldog. But an everyday player has an impact 150 games a year. A TOR is important certainly for 33 starts, but his impact is largely tied to one game every fifth day. They say a TOR saves wear/tear on the pen, and sets the tone for the rest of the rotation. And its valid. But I take the player if all else is relatively equal.
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3 minutes ago, wildcard said:
He's more of a solid than a plus runner ...... Jim Callis
That would put him above average, no? Between solid (aka average/50) and plus (60)...which is more or less what I said. He is generally considered above average by everything I have read. Jim Callis also has him going to the Baltimore Orioles in his mocks. He also has had Austin going #1 in the past mocks. So, obviously, Jim Callis likes him. So does every other outlet.
Richie Martin is an 80 runner...and...not a factor. Honestly, stolen bases are not a concern of mine in evaluating him. Austin hits, and he does it in big moments. He’s a winning player.
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36 minutes ago, wildcard said:
Molitor was drafted as a SS. He only spent on season in the minors and moved 2B his first year with the Brewers because they had Robin Yount at SS. Molitor was a speedster and had the nickname the Ignitor. He stole 30 bases his first year in the majors and 40 bases 4 times in his career. He is not a good comp for Martin IMO.
I am well aware of Paul Molitor’s speed, and his stats. He had great instincts as well. There is not an exact comp for Austin, or any player. It was a much different era in the game, obviously. I was referring to his hitting exploits and general defensive abilities through his major league career in comparison to what I imagine Austin will end up. Anyone can poke holes in any comp, which is why I generally hesitate to put them out there. I think it was useful in this conversation to frame what kind of player Austin may become. They are similar in my opinion.
Martin has above average speed, maybe 55-60. Molitor was more of a 70 runner as a HS prospect and young MLB player. But I still think Martin could steal more bases than you think. Brian Roberts, for instance, stole a lot of bases with just above average speed. And in the longer term, speed is the least sustainable of the five tools.
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I would love Bitsko at #30. Carson Montgomery is a very good young pitcher from an outstanding family. My son played with him a few years ago. Have not seen him in person since, but the video is very good. He will learn how to refine that change up and develop nicely.
I also like Casey Martin SS (Arkansas), Jared Jones RHP (Ca. HS), Alex Santos RHP (NY HS), and Dax Fulton LHP (OK HS).
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I picked Martin for the many reasons we all know. But Lacy would be just fine with me. He needs development to smooth out some things, but he looks the part of a TOR starter. He is a winner on the mound.
Hancock does not miss bats as much as I would like. Not sure if that is something that can be a product of sequencing or other adjustments. I do not love his delivery either.
Zac Veen is interesting to me. Talented young OF, and the same HS as Austin Hays. Could be a way for the O’s to save some money for #30 and #39. I want Martin or Lacy, but I can see this scenario if it helps sign a guy like Bitsko. Too much risk for me under the circumstances that surround the Orioles. -
Are we reading too much into early season throwing issues? I don’t know, but it is certainly possible. Many players have a bit of soreness early in the season. And I never saw any issues with his throws in previous years from 3B. I prefer him at 2B, or CF, but I would not count him out as a 3B.
In regards to the speed not being “elite,” and the thought that he would be just an average defender in CF, many great CF’s were not 70-80 runners. Adam Jones was never that, for instance. From all of the information I have seen, his instincts are excellent. If he is chosen at 1.2, the Orioles will find a place for him to develop. Austin can hit. And he hits top pitching in big moments. I think you find a place for that guy.
Paul Molitor and Craig Biggio were 2B who were probably solid, but maybe not elite defenders, but the hit tool was elite. Would you draft that profile at 1.2?
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5 minutes ago, interloper said:
Mason Williams and Eric Hanhold are both non-roster guys who could make the team.
I can think of six NRI's that can realistically make this team:
- Eric Hanhold
- Wade Leblanc
- Tom Milone
- Pat Valaika
- Mason Williams
- Bryan Holaday
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3 minutes ago, interloper said:
Yeah, I think what's interesting is that it's this early in ST.
I wonder if this means they are about to add someone to the 40-man roster from outside the organization. I imagine it also means they feel good about all three of Cobb, LeBlanc, and Milone, two of whom need to be added to the 40-man.
And perhaps you were correct that Armstrong has earned a spot in the pen. Maybe Carroll and/or Hanhold as well. So no room I guess for even one Rule 5. Very curious to see what happens now with Kohl Stewart. His status will have an impact on several guys. Does Kohl have an option left? I thought he was out of options.
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1 minute ago, Enjoy Terror said:
Blown away.
They seemed to earn raves from camp for their stuff. Maybe they'll try to trade for them. The tweets that Interloper included in another thread make it sound like there is a signing or a trade imminent to add others to the 40 man.
Composite Top 100 MLB Draft Prospects
in Orioles Talk
Posted
Some like him, some don't. A ton of raw power in BP, but a lot of swing and miss in games. For me, he has to prove he can hit higher level pitching consistently. Probably a 1B profile, but maybe a corner OF if he works hard.