Greg Pappas

Who wouldn't? I understand that we have Bradish and GRod, but most of us are clamoring for a ToR starter to be even better this season. I suspect, as most do, that will come from our hitting depth.

Yes, he has added pitching, but that doesn't refute the OP's main point. Just look at the Top prospects list and see the difference. We need difference makers in pitching and I suspect that will come via trades from our wealth of hitting prospects.

This is not a new revelation, as I and others have mentioned this before, but, since the hiring of Elias and his subsequent drafts, the focus seems to have been on taking the safer hitters over the riskier pitchers. This is a philosophy that makes sense given Elias and Sig Mejdal's deep understanding of statistical analysis. In the draft, the odds of the average hitter being a quality ML'er is higher than a pitcher. Thus, if I'm right, a plan to draft the best bats available, especially early in the draft where the most value lies, was begun. Part one, draft the bats. Part two, trade for arms as needed. I don't believe Elias has ever admitted to such a plan, which would be natural, but it seems pretty transparent given the evidence. So, they had/have a plan and have executed the first part to near perfection; draft the bats. 2019: Adley, Gunnar, Stowers, Ortiz, Hernaiz (traded for Cole Irvin)... 1st pitcher taken was in round 8. 2020: Kjerstad, Westburg, Mayo... Covid shortened draft, 1st pitcher taken was in round 5. 2021: Cowser, Norby... 1st pitcher taken was in round 5. 2022: Holliday, Beavers, Wagner, Fabian... 1st pitcher taken was in round 3. 2023: Bradfield, Horvath... Pitchers taken in rounds 2-4, 6-9. The system was bereft of pitching, so I feel they took arms (after two bats) to help offset that discrepancy. Part two is trade for pitching as needed. The need is there, yet which bats to deal is difficult to gauge as many of these bats are just arriving at the big league level. I get the feeling Elias will wait to add pitching at the trade deadline this Summer, once he gets a better feel of who he wants filling spots moving forward. However, if an opportunity arises this offseason (or Spring) it wouldn't be a surprise to see him pull the trigger. Time will tell... it always does. What are your thoughts?

This was well-thought out and I appreciate the time and effort you took to share.

'Twas the night before Christmas, when all through the Hangout Not a poster was stirring, even Sports Guy logged out; The pinned post were stuck with their usual care, Knowing that viewers would soon find them there; The newbies were nestled all snug in their beds, While visions of rep points danced in their heads; And Mrs. Pente in her PJ’s, and “T” in his cap, Had just settled down for an overdue nap, When his server warning beeped, there arose such a fracas In a panic he pondered “Did a hacker attack us?!” Stumbling to his computer, he powered on his screen, Tore open a Red Bull, preparing to scream. When, what to his bewildered eyes should appear, But the site was chock-full, most posters in years It was quickly apparent, and while it seemed absurd He knew in a moment it must be ‘bigbird’. Sure enough it was, he was letting us know Cal Ripken was the new owner of our beloved O’s! "Now, Brooksie! now, Murray! now, Palmer and Boog! Oh, Cuellar and McNally have you all heard the news?” The Oriole Way was back, Cal would lay down the law Now sing! now dance! Go celebrate all!" Tony was smiling, reading post after post. Before he chimed in, proposing a toast. “Here’s to Cal, and every member of this site.. Merry Christmas to all, and to all a good-night!"

You as well!

Yeah, Hays would likely be served by a new park. He is a talented guy and would draw some interest I'm sure. What sort of value he'd bring back would be fun to speculate on.

The comparison was for, "a decent offensive comp," so physical stature or defense was not mentioned. You may be right that Cowser has a bit less BA and more power, but maybe not on either account. It's hard to say, but the comp doesn't feel far off to me.

I've now seen Markakis remarked upon as a decent offensive comp, and I can see that. Here are Nick's average stats per 162 games during his nine-year career in Baltimore: .290 BA / .358 OBP / .435 SLG / .793 OPS, with 16 HR, 35 2B, 73 RBI, and 7/10 SB.

I suspect he'll be better this spring, and look like the guy scouts like so much. So, better at the plate and in the field.

I concur... good post. I think he'll be somewhere around the .775-825 OPS mark, but hard to guess at with any confidence.

He is an excellent defender in LF, no doubt, though his splits last year were similar (.763 v RHP / .786 v LHP). My issue with Hays is his infuriating inability to hit with any consistency. Just last year was typical Hays, hitting to the tune of an .853 OPS in the first half, and a .667 OPS in the second half. He's just so super streaky. Could we carry him as a platoon guy in LF with Cowser? Sure, and that could happen, but I just don't want to see him given full time AB's.

It's a funny thing about Colton Cowser, as most of us (including me) seem okay dealing him, but I wonder if his debut had gone very well, whether we'd still be offering him up in these many different trade scenarios? What should we suspect from the 6'2-220 outfielder? Cowser, who turns 24 in March, had a stellar amateur career at Sam Houston State and with Team USA, before the O's took him 5th overall in the 2021 draft. He has a sweet lefty bat that produced a .982 OPS in 2021, an .874 OPS in 2022, and a .937 OPS last year in AAA Norfolk. He has the power to produce 20+ HR's, hit for a good average.280-.300, and get on base at a high rate. Yet, his strike out rate has been concerning, whiffing 304 times over in his 1174 PA's over his 2+ years in the minors. He is the #14 prospect overall in MLB.com's most recent Top Prospects list, but I suspect he may drop a bit when updated closer to the 2024 season. I think his numbers in 114 games over two seasons at AAA are a good barometer to look at: 523 PA, 428 AB, 25 2B, 1 3B, 22 HR, 73 RBI, 9 SB, 3 CS, 77 BB, 145 K's, .280 BA, .399 OBP, .498 SLG, .896 OPS Defensively he has a good reputation, but my eyes showed an adequate fielder with an okay arm and one that did not get the best jumps off the bat. So, I'm not sure if the SSS was truly telling in that regard and, besides, others would have a far better view on his defensive skillset than I do. Still, overall, I have three questions for you: Could his poor showing in the SSS (77 PA and a .433 OPS) in Baltimore have lowered his trade value at all, and if so, should we wait to allow him to allay any concerns to that end? What sort of numbers would you suspect we'd see if Cowser were given the chance to get 500+ AB's here in Baltimore? What is his floor/ceiling moving forward?

I suspect we wouldn't deal both Cowser and Santander, but one certainly could be in play.

Yeah, I wondered whether Cowser could net Miller by himself, as the value seems about right, but with Norby added, Seattle should be very happy, even with Aiden Smith coming to us as well. If the M's want at least one ML'er, either Santander or Mountcastle make sense, though neither alone could get Miller (or Woo) in my estimation. Westburg was mentioned above as a potential option, but I suspect he has a lot of value to us for his versatlity and potential breakout in year two.

With Woo and Miller potentially available, what sort of deal do you feel makes sense if Mountcastle went to Seattle? I just asked about Miller above, so I guess I'd like to get your take on potential matchups with the M's.

Bryce Miller is such an interesting guy. His numbers in his rookie season last year were okay, but not as such to match his dynamic stuff. Yet a deeper dive into what the M's have done with him to get him from a college reliever to where he is now, is impressive. @Sports Guy what do you think his value is in trade from our side?

Yeah, I'd give up Santander, Hays, or Mountcastle if it helped get a SP like Miller. I'm not high on either Hays or Mountcastle though, and suspect the return for them would be less than ideal. Yet, it's hard to say how other teams value our vets.

Idea: Seattle sends RHSP Bryce Miller and OF Aiden Smith (19) to us for Cowser and Norby. @Sports Guy just posted about the Mariners RHP Bryce Miller (25) in the Framber Valdez thread, highlighting how good Miller's stuff is. He's the guy I want the most, in comparison to Valdez or Cease. I wonder in Cowser alone could net him? If so, great. I love Miller at five controlled years more than Cease at two and Valdez at three, even if losing Cowser and Norby for six seasons. With the loss of Jared Kelenic to the Braves, the M's have a need in LF and a lefthanded bat, and need a good 2B as well. Norby's defense is questionable, but his power is not. Seems like a good fit. From a needs perspective, Mountcastle would also make sense as a trade candidate for the M's. Smith is a very good prospect, taken in R4 last year out of the Texas HS ranks. Click the link to learn more. I suspect some to scoff at the cost, but Miller could be a an excellent addition to our staff for years to come and Smith would be a nice pick up as well as a high ceiling OF.

That's the best alignment and exactly how I'd prefer it. In the OP I copied and pasted but forgot to adjust the preference section. Gunnar is not a lock for SS, just a lock to be here.

I assume @sportsfan8703 was actually joking, but if not, I agree with @Frobby wholeheartedly.

I agree that a blockbuster deal is not likely this off-season. But time will tell... it always does.

Maybe this should have been a trade poster x for y thread?

Paging @Sports Guy

Me too Moose. Big Kam was an interesting guy, and if I recall threw sidearm. I may be misremembering that, but I had high hopes for him at the time.