makoman

I mean, his power started going away in 2010 (.139 ISO) and 2011 (.122 ISO) before the HBP. It was an odd progression after an MVP-caliber year (led the league in bWAR!) in 2008.

Adding to my last post... Markakis was BA's #21 prospect pre-2006 (when he made the team after a nice spring). At 21 in 2005 he spent 91 games in Frederick, with a nice 300/379/480, then spent 33 games in Bowie, killing the Eastern League for 339/420/573/992. Diaz is definitely a lot more like Markakis than Jones, but Nick was also better than Diaz at the same age, although it was only 33 games. I think we can all agree that Nick's power never quite blossomed as we all hoped it would, and I do think at 22 we can still hope for some more growth in that power potential for Diaz. I think Markakis with more power or Jones with more plate discipline but a bit less power would be excellent ceilings for Diaz. Sounds like a several time all star. Likelihood of reaching? Who knows

Diaz played all last year at age 21. His total at AA at age 21 was 285/392/449/841 OPS, if you want to be a homer and exclude Bowie cause he was changing his mechanics or it's tough to change orgs or whatever he was 314/428/477/905 at Tulsa. He's been anywhere from the 30s-70s in the top 100 prospects in baseball. His wRC+ was 152 for Tulsa and 106 for Bowie. In his age 21 season Adam Jones got to the majors for about 40 games (he also did at age 20 for a similar amount). His prospect rankings prior to that year seemed like 20s-40s. In AAA at age 20 his line was 287/345/484/829, and at age 21 it was 314/382/586/967. His wRC+ was 117 at age 20 in AAA, and 144 at 21 in AAA. Already you can see they were different kinds of players. A lot more walks for Diaz, more power for Jones. Jones was better at higher levels. Jones' stats are PCL, generally higher, but wRC+ should account for league averages and park and stuff he did fine at AAA age 21, while Diaz also did a bit better at AA Tulsa at age 21. What's all that mean? I have no idea. Jones was better at higher levels, but they were also different kinds of players. Two ifs: if Bowie was just an aberration and if Diaz develops power, that will be very nice. He has shown a good eye, so if he could approach Jones-like power that would be really exciting.

Isn't locking them up cheaper if you have more team control left? I.e. if your 5 year extension is only buying out 2 FA years instead of 3, because you sent them down for a few weeks at the start of their career?

You’re right and that’s what I meant. Doesn’t change it. They knew this was coming and should be prepared. There was never a question that the Nats would get many millions in rights fees. Also, this money isn’t just coming out of their pockets. The point, as I understand it, is that MASN has to pay the Nats rights fees based to some extent on what MASN is bringing in. Even though the programming sucks, they are bringing in a lot of money via the monthly fee that everyone in the area has to pay per month. I doubt MASN is broke. My point was just, this isn’t some surprise amount that is suddenly coming out of the Angelos bank account. This was an expected expense that should have been planned for and that had a revenue stream to pay for it.

I mean, they’ve known all along that they will owe the Nats some large amount of money. They’d be idiots to not have at least the minimal amount ready to go. If I have a $1000 bill coming I save for it; should be no different for MASN’s $150k-$300k bill (Also, someone said, maybe here or elsewhere, that they may have already paid some base amount and we’re just arguing over the excess, but I have no idea).

Sounds like "anyone who knows baseball" would pick, in this late inning situation, 2018 Chris Davis and his 168/243/296 but with 16 HR (1 every 32 plate appearances!) over 2004 Ichiro and his 372/414/445 but only 8 HR (1 every 95 plate appearances). It's all about who is more likely to tie with one swing of the bat and Davis is like 3 times as likely as Ichiro. Is that what you're saying?