Pickles
-
Posts
5829 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
7
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Events
Posts posted by Pickles
-
-
1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:
Probably but it also depends on when he comes up, since WAR is largely a counting stat.
Thats the hidden part of this conversation. When do the Os bring him up? Is it all season? Is it as soon as the extra year kicks in? Is it into May? Is it after super 2 (usually late May/early June)?
Frobs kind of covered that by making it a rate, so it is WAR/162.
However, the conversation really probably becomes, how much does he catch?
If he catches 95% of his abs, and puts up that OPS, he'll be well above 3 WAR.
If he catches 60%, that's probably about right.
-
5 hours ago, Frobby said:
Adley Rutschman currently has a .936 OPS in AAA (38 games) following .901 in AA (80 games). Let’s have your predictions for his OPS as a rookie next year.
While we’re at it, take a shot at rWAR/162. We’ll do that based on what percentage of the 162 games Rutschman is on the O’s roster, not the number of games he plays. So, if he was called up after 40 games and posted 3.0 rWAR the rest of the way, that would be 4.0 rWAR/162.
I’ll go first: .817 OPS and 3.1 rWAR/162.
It seems likely that if his OPS is that high, his WAR would be higher.
-
This team is one of the worst I've seen at doing anything, except hitting homeruns.
-
12 minutes ago, Frobby said:
I think Harrison is likely to be significantly better I’ve always liked the guy. He’s versatile and seems like a very good teammate.
Also you may be forgetting just how bad Franco was this year. -1.6 rWAR in less than 2/3 of a season (104 G, 404 PA). That’s worse that Chris Davis was in a similar amount of playing time in 2019 (-1.1 rWAR, 105 G, 352 PA).
He was horrendous. And I'll admit, I didn't realize it was that bad.
And we should of course take more recent information as more important. However, excluding this season, their last 3-4 are pretty similar. And Franco is of course significantly younger.
My point isn't really about Franco though. Or Harrison even.
Rather, that these kinds of signings should definitely be explored, but they aren't a significant departure from the strategy of the last few years. We're just hoping maybe it works out a little bit better.
-
I know he's had a far more successful career, and a their 2021s are polar opposites, but isn't it like a coin flip if this guy is better than Franco next year? Or a hell of a lot more like a coin flip that we might want to admit?
-
1
-
-
15 minutes ago, Frobby said:
I don’t think fWAR penalizes defense more than rWAR. They just measure defense differently. Some players get judged as better defenders by rWAR than fWAR, and for others its the other way around.
Are their positional adjustments the same?
-
3 hours ago, Frobby said:
I’ve heard this term “three level jump” from several posters describing the movement of Stowers, Westburg, and Henderson this year. To me, if you start the year in Hi A, move to AA and then to AAA, that’s a two-level jump. You’re two levels above where you started, not three. Same with Low A to Hi A to AA.
Makes me think of the 3 Rbi homerun.
-
7 hours ago, Frobby said:
It affected guys like Koufax, Kaline and Killebrew. Overall about 60 players over 19 years. An explanation and a list here:
https://www.baseball-almanac.com/legendary/Bonus_Babies.shtmlRoberto Clemente too.
It's almost as if- even HOFs- benefit from MiL play. Crazy.
-
3 hours ago, Tryptamine said:
You might as well just says he's not available then. No one is going to give up that type of payment for a guy who has never pitched a full season, due to repeated arm fatigue, and has his peripherals. Yes, he's obviously underestimated by FIP and xFIP because they don't take into consideration quality of contact much in the way Kyle Hendricks is, but you're also talking about a guy who has posted a 4.26 ERA, 7.32 K/9 since the spider tack crack down on June 15th. There's too much uncertainty floating around him to warrant that kind of package. If Robert Hassell and a back end of the Padre top 20 was available, I think that would be a really good haul considering those uncertainties.
That's fine.
If someone wants to trade for him based on the idea that's he's overvalued because of his whip, or spider tack, they can get bent.
-
Two top 50. Or go away.
-
- Popular Post
Bringing misery to others is the only thing that brings me joy.
-
1
-
1
-
3
-
5 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:
That’s why I’m trading Mullins, Means, and Mancini this offseason. Add to the 2024 team.
2024 is looking legit.
C - AR
1B - Mountcastle
2B - Westburg
SS - Gunnar
3B - Mayo
LF - Stowers
RF - Greene(2022 #1 pick)
CF - Cowser
DH - Kjerstad
Rotation: Grod, Hall
If we look legit in 2024 without acquiring anything for Mullins, Means, or Mancini..... why trade them?
-
7 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:
Just like all the other ones are different.
Yes. Now you're catching on.
-
3 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:
That last sentence revolves around the notion that no other moves will be made for the staff. While that's a distinct possibility, I don't believe they could trade Means and not find a decent replacement. Now I doubt they sign someone like Robbie Ray, but if they traded Means and signed Ray, I'd be happy.
Means is a good pitcher, not a great one. I suppose we can debate on what "reasonable" and "fair" means. But I don't think any of us should get our hopes up and be "blown away" on a return for Means. That's not likely to happen if he's traded.
The market, IMO, always wins. We might like to think starting the conversation centers around two top 50 global prospects. The market might tell us different.
It isn't impossible for them to trade Means and improve next year. It's just highly unlikely.
When the market is unfavorable, you don't make the deal. That's how you "beat" the market.
Means pitching like a top 10 pitcher in July gets you two top 50 prospects. So you wait.
And if it never materializes, if he gets injured or regresses, what did you miss out on? Josh Bell (The prospect we received from the LAD for George Sherrill)?
That won't kill your rebuild. Trading your best pitcher, and one of your best developmental successes, for nothing will.
-
I said when the idea came up this spring:
If you even want to start the conversation its two top 50 global prospects. Then we'll figure out the rest.
I'm not interested in a "reasonable" return. A "fair" return. If that's your offer, keep on walking.
If we trade Means- and I'm not saying I'm unwilling, see above- I don't see how it is possible we improve next year.
-
1
-
-
3 hours ago, Frobby said:
Ryan Mountcastle played in his 162nd major league game last night. Here’s the tale of the tape after the equivalent of one full season:
656 PA, 597 AB, 80 R, 165 H, 28 2B, 1 3B, 33 HR, 103 RBI, 4 SB, 46 BB, 170 K’s, .276/.328/.492, 118 OPS+.
Not too shabby for a rookie. I think it’s realistic to think he can be an .850+ OPS guy in his prime, and maybe threaten .900 in his best seasons.
You know, three months ago, I would have been inclined to disagree with this.
But now this is basically my position too.
If you've been watching him the last few months you have been able to watch him grow his approach in real time. He can hit. If he makes them throw him strikes, he can really hit. He's seemed to have figured that out.
Outside of Mullins, Mountcastle establishing himself as a ML regular this year has to be high on the feel good story list.
-
1 hour ago, interloper said:
Ask any professional scout, if Adley was around in 2009 with Wieters who would be the #1 prospect that year. Come on guy.
In 2021, I have no doubt most would say Adley.
In 2009? I bet answers would be different.
-
43 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:
Just some food for thought, the only time we have them at the same age and level in at 23-years old in AAA but we have to remember Rutschman missed an entire year because of COVID.
Wieters in 39 AAA games: .305/.387/.504/.890 with 9 2B, 5 HR and 20-30 BB-K in 163 PAs
Rutschman in 30 AAA gs: .330/.425/.528/.953 with 8 2B, 3 HR and 17-23 BB-K in 129 PAsRutschman has more raw power for me, better understanding of the zone, and is more athletic than Wieters. Wieters had a better more accurate arm and controlled the run game better.
As a hitter, I think Rutschman is a better overall prospect and will be a middle of the order hitter. I also think we will see him DH and play some 1B (Mountcastle to DH) a good bit to keep his legs fresh. He'll probably catch in the 110-120 range.
While I won't get into the semantics of who was the better prospect since it's really just conjecture at this point, Rutschman's athleticism, work ethic, and overall hit tool gives him the edge in my book.
Saying all that, he'll need to prove it at the major league level which will start next season.This is all fair. To say I have a preference for AR is completely defensible. To act as if they are in different categories of prospect, or that a preference for Wieters isn't reasonable, is not.
The only thing in this post that surprises me is your contention that AR has more raw power. I would have gave the nod there to Wieters.
They are/were very similar prospects in terms of value. Now that doesn't mean their ML careers will mirror each other. I think we all hope that AR has a better career than Wieters. But as you say, that's no guarantee. And we'll get to start seeing it next year.
-
1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:
Good for you. I can’t wait to hear more stories about your failed attempt at being an athlete. It was literally the best thing you have ever given to this site. You actually gave us comedy. Thank you for that.
You're just a sad, bitter little man.
My thoughts turn to Norm Macdonald. Freshly passed away. The most brilliant comedian I believe I'll ever see. Dead of cancer. Which he hid from the world. And carried himself.
Norm didn't lose his battle with cancer. It was a draw at least.
And I'm not a failed athlete. I didn't make a million dollars, but I carry with me what I learned.
-
I actually prefer we lose this way than the typical down 5-0 in the 2nd way which we have so perfected this year.
At least this way I get to watch a few innings of baseball first.
-
1
-
-
15 minutes ago, 7Mo said:
So when you said you "broke it so many times", you meant you severely dislocated it?
Yes. I'm sorry to have mislead you so badly and to have used such hyperbolic language.
-
27 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:
I never saw anything in Bowie. Maybe it was on here but I didn’t watch or see it. I don’t recall ever seeing anything like that on here but maybe it was? I really don’t know.
I have seen enough video of Adley to feel far differently about him based on initial evaluations vs Wieters. Why is that such a big deal to you? You seem to want to b*tch and moan about it but why do you care? It’s my opinion. I was right about Wieters. We will see if I am about Adley. If im Not, no biggie. It likely won’t change your life or mine.
And if you think my evaluation of Adley is based on solely my opinion, you are a clueless person. I’m taking into account the evaluations of everyone and everything I read, the stats he has put up, the leadership he shows, etc…
And by the way, your “sold point” is saying you know more than Callis. I hope you realize that. Talk about arrogance.
I find it hard to believe that you miss much on this site. I believe full Wieters at-bats were posted in the Minors sections by Just D. Again, I recall the playoffs being livestreamed. Certainly I remember the same kind of video highlights available here as w Adley.
I think this is you inventing narratives in your head. You weren't "right" about Wieters. He won GGs, went to All-Star games, and received MVP votes, and was instrumental in turning this franchise around. Is that what you predicted? Just exactly what amazing prediction did you make regarding Wieters? And when? That he'd win GGs, and go to All-Star games, but not be.......... Johnny Bench?...... because he had a "slow bat" and was "unathletic?"
You're a real prophet.
And as far as, "Why do I care?"
"Why do you care if I care?"
This is a discussion board. If you don't want feedback, then don't discuss. And, of course, that reveals much about you: You don't want to discuss. You want to lecture.
I return to the investment analogy. We are all invested in this team. We are all shareholders in that sense. And that is what we argue about mostly. I think you are making bad presumptions. And I want to say so. So I will.
-
2 minutes ago, 7Mo said:
So did you break your thumb or no?
The more accurate term is probably severe dislocation. And yes. Monthly.
-
1 hour ago, 7Mo said:
Isn't everything you've posted in this thread "to me", the same as what you accuse SG of?
You're not citing anything except your own opinions.
I'd say no.
I'd say stating that AR and MW were similarly valued prospects is not really an opinion. It's a fact.
That's a far different thing than stating that AR is clearly a better prospect. Because that's revisionism. Because it's based on nothing but hindsight.
And retreating into "to me" when making such a claim is really a dodge from the revisionism.
What’s your OPS and WAR/162 prediction for Rutschman next year?
in Orioles Talk
Posted
I'll throw my predictions in here, though I haven't read everyone else's, so as not to just criticize others'.
I think he goes 775 OPS and 4 WAR/162.