emmett16
-
Posts
6412 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
3
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Events
Posts posted by emmett16
-
-
13 minutes ago, now said:
Agreed--longer, as in, it sounds an awful lot like what Ted Williams preached and practiced.
For sure. He had his BA % for quadrants in the strike zone as well as the count. It's pretty remarkable how far ahead of his time he was. I really wish I could have seen him play. The Science of Hitting is easily the best book out there on hitting.
-
1
-
-
3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:
This is from a Fangraphs piece I just posted elsewhere.
I think it's been going on for longer than a year but I guess maybe it's reached a tipping point?
I think it's a result of the shift and better more athletic defenders. It's been going on for a long time, but ever since Kyle Boddy disrupted player dev. in 2012 it's been a focus and has been expanded on. See-ing eye singles aren't really a thing anymore. Heck, defensive positioning rarely allows bloop hits anymore. If you aren't putting the ball in play at 95mph+ with a launch angle of 8-25 degrees, your chance of getting a hit is slim to none. And how can you achieve those results? Sell out on balls you can handle, often times even with 2 strikes if the situation/pitcher warrant that approach. I know some teams use a chart that shows the strike zone with a diamond in the middle of it, essentially eliminating all 4 corners. You are dinged if you go after a pitch in those 4 quadrants with less than 2 strikes. You're also dinged if you don't go after a pitch in the hot zone (regardless of count). I'm sure it gets much more sophisticated and personalized than that.
-
1
-
-
19 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:
From the video, it looks like he really gets on top of the ball and drives it down. Giving him that "heavy fastball". He's not the closer that we need, but he most certainly looks to be an option as a middle relief impact arm for the MLB team later this season.
That's been my hope since the beginning of the year. He looks like he can be a shut down reliever and we desperately need someone to fill that role.
-
54 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:
Overall hitting numbers 2023-24:
2023
1370 K (22.4%), 512 BB (8.4%), K/BB 2.68, OPS .742, OPS+ 107, .255/.321/.421
2024
346 K (22.3%), 107 BB (6.9%), K/BB 3.23, OPS .746, OPS+ 117, .245/.304/.442
The walks are down but K's are level. OPS is slightly up, but up a bit more on a league adjusted basis. Average and OBP are down, .SLG is up. Overall, if this is a new approach, it does not appear to be hurting us.
One of the biggest differentials is Adley, who has gone from elite 13.4% BB% down to Mateo level 5.0%. However, Adley is hitting .314 and slugging .509, so again the approach does not seem to be hurting us. Is Adley adopting a new approach, or is he adjusting to being pitched differently? Will be interesting to see how it plays out.
Other differentials: Santander, Mountcastle, and Gunnar are all down but only by about 1%. Mullins is down from 9% to 5%, but he is sucking overall so hard to tell what that means. The outlier is O'Hearn up from 4% to 12%.
Some of this could be due to the mix of teams we have faced. Red Sox and Twins are 1-2 in BB allowed. Nats, Jays, Dbacks, Royals, Pirates and Reds are all in the top half. We have faced zero of the bottom five and only four below median teams. I think that could account for the guys whose BB% is down incrementally.
That really just leaves Adley. My interpretation is that there is a book out on him and he is adjusting. Will be interesting to see how he continues to develop.
Yea, there is no different approach. Its a SSS in a long season.
Their wOBA and ISO are up this year over last year. Their OBP is down slightly but can be attributed to a .278 BABIP this year vs. a .305 last year. The k% is almost identical and the BB % is off by -1.5%. I'd wager that by the end of season, the BB% will be up and the numbers will be up across the board.
wRC+ 114 this year vs. 105 last year. Why are people complaining? Because it seems like we are being less patient?
-
2
-
-
1 hour ago, Frobby said:
We might see this. However, I think Hyde likes having good hitters at different parts of the lineup so that opponents never have an inning they can coast through. I’m not too fussed about it either way. Studies have shown that batting order makes very little difference in run scoring. I do think there’s logic in getting your best hitters the most at bats, by putting them at the top.
Interesting. I've never thought about that before. I've read the studies on line-ups and understand there isn't a huge difference, but for me you have to have your best hitters at the top of the lineup. Gunnar was due up 4th in the bottom of the 9th yesterday. Of all the 'botches' people have been complaining about yesterday from Hyde, had we lost that game with our best hitter not coming to the plate in the bottom of the 9th, that would have been my #1 complaint.
-
I have not been a Webb fan. I’m happy to eat crow. His CU is pretty devastating and when batters are protecting against it his FB plays. Yesterday he was not at his best and found a way to make a pitch when he needed to. It will be interesting to see how he does for a full year. If he could be a 2.5-3.0 BB/9 guy, he’d be super valuable.
-
1
-
-
52 minutes ago, Frobby said:
Not all pickoffs are counted as CS. It depends if the runner is tagged out while trying to get back to the original base, or takes off for the next past. Only the latter are treated as CS.
I looked at Bradfield’s game logs and the box scores of the three times he’s been caught stealing (twice last year, once this year). None of those were the result of pickoffs. So, any pickoffs he’s had were in addition to the times he was caught stealing. I’m aware of two pickoffs he’s had this year, once in the first weekend of the year, and then yesterday. I also know of at least once that he was thrown out trying to stretch a double into a triple recently.
Still, I don’t think any of that necessarily makes Bradfield too aggressive. It depends what his overall success rate is. His success rate on stolen bases is phenomenal even if you factor in the two pickoffs, and I suspect he’s taken a lot of extra bases too. The guy has been on base 28 times and has scored 17 runs. That’s a very good ratio.
Correct. That’s why I said hard to tell if any of the CS were PIKs. The post I was replying to mentioned him being picked off at second and more times than not you're going back to the bag. I’d say most picks that result in CS are lefty’s going to first.
Thanks for the follow up and looking in to the CS. I briefly tried to find the PIKs but didn’t have any luck.
Agree on his SB rate. With that success rate, I’ll take a few PIKs. Heck, if he can continue that his low ISO might not be an issue, he just needs to find a way to get on base. If all those SBs could combine with the singles to become doubles, his OPS would be off the charts.
-
On 5/10/2024 at 12:17 PM, Tony-OH said:
For an organization that certainly values defense at the major league level, they sure do draft/sign a lot of bat first guys and hope their defense can be developed.
One of my concerns with their defensive developmental plans is the org put such a value on being versatile, that most players never play one position all the time. Instead they are moved around a lot. I can understand that with some players who will need that versatility to have value in the majors, but guys that are going to be everyday big leagues need to play the position where they are most likely going to play with the Orioles.
Sure, I get playing a guy in another position once in awhile, but put the best out there at their best positions and let it fly. Look at all the positions these Latin American infielders play in the DSL/FCL. They sign so many "SS's" but when you see them live, I'm like, "No way you should have been wasting SS reps on this guy."
So yes, I do think it's ok to question the Orioles player development strategy under Blood to play guys all over versus having them focus on their most likely major league position.
It may have worked with uber athletes like Gunnar or Westburg, but it's not working with others.
I think there is more to it than just simply versatility. There are PHDs out there that study and focus on high level achievers, mostly in sports but also in other areas. They’ve found that the brain grows through a process called myelination when someone repeatedly puts forth a concentrated, specific, and challenged effort. This is why implements and constraints are used in throwing and hitting development. A hitter will become much better if they are using different size & weight bats and if their bodies are in different positions. The brain organizes the motor skills and works hard to achieve an end and in doing so becomes better at that skill. This is why pitchers use different weight balls and balls of different sizes to hone in on command. A batter using the same bat, from the same position, hitting the same pitch will never improve even if they take 1,000 swings per day. The same theory goes for fielding. Different balls, from different angles, in different positions that require differ throws all while concentrating/focusing at a high level (not being comfortable repeating the same stuff) will have a greater longer term effect than repeated non-challenging reps from one position. The brain adapts and grows from performing challenging and specific motor skills. I agree they need to pick and chose a bit who this so best suited for. I also agree is super frustrating to watch as the players take their lumps, play new positions, and even play positions for the first time. I also think defense is much easier to develop than hitting. So I understand the thought of drafting bat first players who are athletic and then working with them. Will this work? I don’t think we can say for sure yet. I think we will need to see the second, third, and fourth wave come through to determine that. But I do think it’s done intentionally with the long term goal to develop the absolute best possible baseball player and not done hap haphazardly.
-
8 minutes ago, owknows said:
He's been picked off at second a couple of times as I understand it.
I imagine so. He has 41 SB in 45 MiLB games. He has 3 CS. Hard to tell from stat line of any of those CS are PIKs. To your point, he needs to figure out what he can and can’t get away with and low minors is the place to push the envelope.
-
2 hours ago, owknows said:
Base running is more than just speed. It's a skill. That skill has to be honed like any other. Reading pitchers. Seeing the play in front of you. Understanding how much of a lead is enough. Hearing the second baseman moving toward the bag behind you.
As defenses incrementally improves as a player progresses through the minors, so too should base running skill.
But only if it is exercised and challenged
Has EBJ been trying to pad his stats by stealing first after advancing to second? I kid I kid
Agree on your point re:base running is a skill that needs to be honed.
-
-
1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:
He ain’t long for here. Unless he starts mashing right away or something.
That might get him traded even faster.
-
37 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:
If you're Stowers, you're happy to have two or three weeks in Baltimore again cause this is probably your last go-round here.
That and the paycheck bump.
-
1
-
-
1 minute ago, allquixotic said:
The way they've been swinging the bats on the whole, Hyde may have a point there: we're more probable to execute a squeeze play than to hit the ball out of the infield for a sac fly or base hit with RISP. That says a lot about our offense, but by the numbers it might actually be true.
If he got the bunt down, folks would have called him a genius. I like the play. Beats a K. Anytime you make the D execute a perfect play at home To save a run you’re doing something right.
-
2
-
-
9 minutes ago, Uli2001 said:
This is one of those wins that feels like a tie.
Kinda. Was just painful because of all the build up with no scoring. 11 hits but only 1 with RISP. They only had 5 and scored on a botched route by Santander. If they get 1 or 2 more hits with RISP it’s a blowout.
-
10 minutes ago, SteveA said:
Sure we do. We out hit them 11-5.
And they scored their only runs on a ball that should have been caught.
-
1
-
-
THE STREAK CONTINUES!!!
-
Not having Gunnar due up in this inning is inexcusable.
-
1 minute ago, maybenxtyr said:
I've been listening via XM and following on GameDay...out of all of the mistakes made today, not letting Stowers bat has to be the biggest. How does a team that is so analytically driven not understand when a guy hits left on left well?
Because they don’t put as much stock in results as they do the probability of success of certain swing planes vs. certain pitching repertoire.
-
O’Hearn in for defense……not to hit. wtf
-
Lol Stowers removed for Urias.
-
2 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:
I'm not watching, just lurking here... did we really do a suicide squeeze with McCann?
Safety squeeze.
-
1 minute ago, FlaO'sFan said:
Either way, hate bunting there, especially with 2 strikes.
He struck out last time with 2 strikes. I don’t hate the play.
-
1 minute ago, dystopia said:
Sounded like the challenge was that the catcher blocked the plate, not that he was safe. Neither KB nor JP picked up on it.
I heard that, too. Not sure that matters, though.
The Defense Thread, 2024
in Orioles Talk
Posted
Cano’s nickname should be El Gato.