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foxfield

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    Peter Angelos has Passed Away

    in Orioles Talk

    Posted

    Rest In Peace Peter Angelos.  I am thankful that your love of Baltimore made sure the Orioles stayed here.  My condolences to the entire Angelos family.  And on this day, I will fondly remember the best of you.

    • Upvote 2
    • Like 1

    Roch: Holliday, Mayo, Kjerstad, Stowers, Norby, and Al Suarez optioned

    in Orioles Talk

    Posted

    4 hours ago, Gurgi said:

    If feel like Mike Elias promised us a puppy if we were good and did our homework.  Well we did all our homework and did chores around the house and everything.....but instead of getting us that beautiful German Shepard puppy he went and got a damn chihahua mutt mix instead.  And to top it off Elias punched the German Shepard puppy right in the face.  

    You can’t have any Jackson Holliday if you don’t eat your meat!  How can any Jackson Holliday if you don’t eat your meat????

    • Haha 1

    TT: How both Jackson Holliday and Coby Mayo can make the opening day roster

    in Orioles Talk

    Posted · Edited by foxfield

    5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

    They aren't going to be sitting, they just aren't going to be playing as often.

    They will still be working in ML facilities with ML coaches and experiencing life in the majors.

    That way they will be more ready when the time comes for them to start.

    If someone isn't talented enough to force their way onto the roster I'm not worried about year six or seven.  Do you care if the 2030 Orioles have the rights to a 30 year old Norby?

    I've already stated that I'd put Mayo at third and make Westburg a super utility getting reps in the infield and outfield.

    That’s fair. But that’s not sitting a potential impact rookie. If you think Mayo is ready I’d do it that way too. You would still likely keep one of Mateo or Urias. And they would sit. I’m fine with that. 

    TT: How both Jackson Holliday and Coby Mayo can make the opening day roster

    in Orioles Talk

    Posted

    2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

    Do you think playing at a lower level than their talent warrants might hamper their development?

    That’s not the question. The question is which one is worse. Sitting at a higher level or playing at a lower level?  And a corollary question is which way is a better use of service time?

    I think for any player you think can be an impact player you want them playing most every day when they come up.   
     

    I’d like to see us move beyond McKenna. But am fine with Mateo and Urias. 
     

    Who do want to make a part time player?

    Stowers? Mayo? Kjerstad? Norby?

    We need a trade but I get why it hasn’t happened yet.

     

    Are You One Of Those People

    in Orioles Talk

    Posted

    In fairness, human nature lets us believe in the good stats. Particularly when it’s from young players. And it lets us dismiss the poor stats. Especially from the vets. 
     

    Reality says it may mean something…or it may mean nothing. 

    Predict the 26

    in Orioles Talk

    Posted

    2 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

    I hope Holliday makes it, and I think Burdick is backup so we can DFA McKenna.

    Moves

    - McKenna, Nevin, and Maton are DFA’d

    - Bradish and Means are transferred to the 60 day IL.

    - Holliday and JT added to the 26 and 40 man.

    The 40 man roster will be at 37. Gives Elias room to claim 3 guys.  Probably a reliever that is out of options and a guy that can play CF that has an option.

    (5) Burnes, GR, Kremer, Irvin, Wells

    (8) Kimbrel, Cano, Coloumbe, Perez, Webb, Baumann, JT, Tate

    9 LU

    1. Holliday 2B L (Gotta get those ROY #s)

    2. Adley C S

    3. Gunnar 3B L

    4. Santa RF S

    5. Mounty 1B R

    6. O’Hearn DH L

    7. Hays LF R

    8. Mullins CF L

    9. Westburg 3B R

    (4) Bench - McCann, Mateo, Urias, Cowser

    This post says Mateo is both DFA'd and a bench player....

    Will striking out 40% of the time ....

    in Orioles Talk

    Posted

    27 minutes ago, Brooks The Great said:

    There certainly is a way the move is made in less than a month or two. If Gunnar were to get hurt in late April, for example, then Holliday would be called up. So I completely disagree with you when you say there's no way the move is made in a month or two if Holliday begins the season in the minors.

    But yes, barring injuries, it will be longer than two weeks.

    If the IF group of Gunnar, Westburg, and Urias stays healthy, there's a possibility Holliday gets the Gunnar treatment. Late August callup in order to preserve his rookie eligibility to have a better chance to place in the top 3 ROY vote-getters in 2025. Which is another secondary - yet not totally insignificant - factor that people who think Jackson is making the OD roster may not be considering.

    All of the above is fair…sure there IS a way he can be up.  That does not mean he would be.  Most of the ways he could be will bring a strong chance that you lose a full year of service without the benefit of having him.  Not to mention the other potential benefits if he happens to be in the ROY hunt. Which he is currently one of the favorites for…
     

    I am not saying he can’t.  Of course he could.  I am saying if he goes down they are planning on him being down long enough to gain the year and keep his rookie status like Gunnar. 
     

    Any you better believe that Elias is running through all of this in his risk calculation. There is just an awful lot of risk to send him down to game his service time. And therefore, I think if Elias thinks he is ready he goes north and if he isn’t he goes down and stays late. Injuries or not. At least that would be the plan IMHO. 

    Will striking out 40% of the time ....

    in Orioles Talk

    Posted

    4 hours ago, Brooks The Great said:

    Yes he does. An extra year of Holliday is extremely valuable to any organization, especially this one. If Holliday gets sent down, that'll be the reason. I think it's quite possible that I'm wrong and he makes the team (with no injuries or trades), but I think Elias will ultimately feel that using Westburg at 2B and Urias at 3B for 1-2 months will be worth gaining the extra year of Holliday. 

    For the 1100th time. You are correct that at this point if Holliday goes down it will likely be to gain a year. However…

    After losing the extra year with Rutschman, who came up on May 21…there is no way this move is made in a month or 2.  And it certainly will not be a couple of weeks. 
     

    If Holliday goes down it will likely longer than Adley and likely until the All-Star break or later. 

    Mullins replaced in 1st inning...

    in Orioles Talk

    Posted

    43 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

    Interested to see how much he runs when the lights go on.     For playing roto, some of the stuff I've read as the Clubs digest Year 1 of the pizza box is success rates were so high, Clubs may plan to dial it up even louder in 2024.    I think this is a huge edge for Mateo if he is battling Urias for one spot.

    Mullins ran wild in April 2023, then there were bumps and he made it to the finish line, but he ran less and did the legs hollow out his pop?    His 2nd half wRC+ was ~70 like defensive specialists.

    For me he's maybe at the Mike Trout don't let the running game disrupt your potent bat kind of stage of things.  

    Rope-a-dope the advance scouts until fall, and be the 25 HR, 5 SB version of Andrew McCutchen!

     

    10 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

    I think Mullins might be able to help keep up his very good play by planning to attempt SB a little bit less, or being told to by Hyde.

    He was not a very good player grinding out the end of the 2023 season.

    I think I need to change the batteries on my Just Regular decoder....

     

     

    • Haha 1

    Will striking out 40% of the time ....

    in Orioles Talk

    Posted

    7 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

    I think that would be a clear indication that the O's don't actually value winning very highly.

    If they do something like that and then fail to make the playoffs...ohh boy.

    Must be tough for you. What with Elias getting the Os rebuild done effectively, the team exceeding expectations and the owner in the process of going away. 

    • Haha 1

    JJ Cooper: Tanking is not why the Orioles won 101 games

    in Orioles Talk

    Posted

    11 minutes ago, StottyByNature said:

    I think we just need to embrace the power of "and" here.  The 2023 Orioles won 101 games because of tanking AND the excellent work the front office did with those advantages gained from tanking.  Put another way, tanking only provides opportunity, it does not guarantee success (see: Pirates, Pittsburgh).

    I think some of you are missing the point on the "everyone had a shot at Gunnar" notion.  Sure, that's true, but picking at the top of the second round still helped us.  What if other teams were considering him for the second round (not unreasonable if there were signability concerns) and we simply had the earlier selection?  Picking earlier in any round is always preferable to later.

    There is nothing wrong with conceding that tanking provided the opportunity but the front office excelled at capitalizing on those opportunities.  If another front office had the exact same resources the Orioles have had over the last 5 years it is unlikely they would reproduce the same results.  Still, the resources were there for a reason.

    I am probably splitting hairs, but part of my point was that the Orioles benefit of tanking has not really even produced yet.  Regardless of where Gunnar went he was a result of the horrible failure of 2018.  Nothing from 2018 season, including the draft in 2019 has anything to do with tanking.

    I will point out that in 2018, the Orioles started the season with around the 14th or so highest payroll in all of baseball.  It was also only about 100 Million off of #1.   They sold off assets after the break.  Teams do that all the time.  In 2023, the Orioles were 27th in baseball with a $64M or so in payroll...nearly $270M behind the Mets.

    The Organization has benefitted from the tanking so yes, I do agree that the word AND has a place in this discussion.  The depth in the Org has given the Orioles a chance to make other moves that have benefited the team in both '22 and '23.  I just think too many make the easy leap to what some in the press were calling a 5 year tank job even as the Orioles were defying people in 2022 by actually winning games.  It was a surprise then, it was still last year.

    The tank resulted in favored draft positions in 2020-2022.  But even here, the results are not what they seem.  In 2020, Covid impacted the draft, reducing it to 5 rounds, and also impacted our top pick Heston Kjerstad.  While he has recovered, the Orioles only got 6 picks and still turned them in to Kjerstad, Westburg and Mayo.  

    The success rate has at this point, been nothing short of spectacular.  And the waiver pickups and small trades have had an impact even with some swings and misses.

    The overall point, is that if ever a team had to go through a rebuild, what the Orioles have done is something that isn't explained by tanking.  Certainly not in 2022 or even 2023 although if I am fair, Westburg had an impact on 2023 and he was a 2020 draft pick with the 30th pick (Supplemental).  What the Orioles are doing and have done so far...if it continues and blooms into a WS title or three, is going to be talked about for a long time.  

    Therefore it is important to keep the story straight, less the story becomes "Orioles tank and build dynasty."  The Orioles did tank and it is a part of the story.  But the success of that tanking has barely even been felt yet.  Even here, in 2022, there were folks talking about the 5 year tank from 2018-2022.  (not picking anyone out here)

    In hindsite, it looks like DD did a better job than we thought on the sell off and left quite a bit to work with after shedding salary.  And it seems that Mike Elias has set a new standard for how to build a team in both acquiring and developing talent.  (We haven't even begun to talk about International yet)

    Now, let's get to the place where he general manages all of it into that dynasty.

     

    JJ Cooper: Tanking is not why the Orioles won 101 games

    in Orioles Talk

    Posted · Edited by foxfield

    Gunner cannot be looked at as a benefit of tanking....Every single team in MLB had a chance to draft him and did not.  And as SG already pointed out, the Orioles were definitely not "tanking" in 2018.  When they did punt, it was prudent and also in character for a cheap team.

    Coby Mayo was passed not once, not twice, but three times by every team in MLB.  (I know he was not involved with the OP list of top 10 players in our '23 season.)

    Tanking helped the Orioles in their draft position, that is obvious.

    But their success is clearly superior drafting and excellent resource management by Elias.  Even if you account for the multiplier affect of having more higher chances...the quality of picks is what has made the difference.  

    Rutschman, was not the slam dunk choice of everyone.  Gunner was passed by everyone as was Westburg and Ortiz.

    The Orioles clearly tanked in 2019, 2020, 2021.  The only player acquired during that time who impacted the 101 wins in 2023 was Bradish who as the OP pointed out was acquired in the Bundy trade.  You could argue that either way as Bundy was clearly not going to be here long enough to survive the tank.  Moving him was as much for financial reasons and was clearly a move that even non tanking teams make....see Milwaukee Brewers and Corbin Burnes.

     

    5 of the 10 players were acquired by Elias and you can debate what the Orioles development by Elias had to do with Bautista who was already here.

    Mullins, Hays, Santander and Mountcastle were all here, but clearly given the opportunity to develop during the tank...they were very valuable to the 101 wins, but no one is begging for them on the trade market.

    IF the Orioles win the WS in 2024 and Holliday is ROY/MVP in any combination, then the tanking is definitely involved.  But it is also fair to point out that even Holliday when we picked him was not the consensus #1 pick.  Many thought the pick was an example of the O's underslotting to get more talent later.

    The Orioles did tank.  From 2019-2021.  That is indisputable.  I think a fair analysis of that time period and how it has impacted the Orioles on the field (in '23) would reach the conclusion that the fruit from that period is still yet to be produced.

     

    • Upvote 2

    Will striking out 40% of the time ....

    in Orioles Talk

    Posted

    24 minutes ago, TommyPickles said:

    Giving up three or four weeks of a 20-year-old splitting time in a crowded infield mix in exchange for a shot at an extra year of control of a potential All-Star-type player?

    Kind of a no-brainer for the ownership. I don't see Holliday making the OD roster.

    It wouldn’t be three or four weeks. If you recall, the Orioles brought Adley up on May 21. He finished second in the ROY vote and earned a full year of service. 
     

    Holliday may not be the ROY but he is certainly in the running. But there should be little doubt that bringing him up in late April would leave him plenty of time to earn that full year. 
     

    Getting bitten by this once was unlucky for Elias. Getting burned on it again would be a mistake and I don’t think he does that. 
     

    So the question should go something like this. Is Holliday the best option for the Orioles in ‘24?  If so he makes the team.  The answer seems obvious but…
     

    They could decide they are going to try to game the clock, a send him down. But it won’t be for three or four weeks, it would be until at least June and likely later.  And they might go this stall route. I just don’t believe that 3-4 weeks is a viable option if he is sent down because it has a high risk of backfiring.  If they want him here in a month he goes north with the team. 

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