Filmstudy

I did not read through all 20 pages of responses here, but I have 1 major question with the trade; How certain are the Orioles of Diaz's age? At 21, the deal looks decent with a couple of OBP prospects with power. However, if Diaz were really 23, he'd be a hell of a lot less of a prospect. Does anyone know if the media has questioned the Orioles on this topic?

I can guess how you get to 32%, although it seems low if you're estimating Davis' OBP vs. that pitcher plus the residual chance of a WP, PB, E, etc. How are you estimating the 63%?

We used to call him "Cautious Cal" in the 1980s. In fact, when I say Stubbs held at 3rd, I thought Dickerson was channeling Cal Ripken circa 9/22/92 when Cal held Brady at 3B on a shallow fly to Devon White.

I heard Scully do broadcasts 30 years ago and he was outstanding, but he's made concessions to age. Chuck Thompson was outstanding and we heard some of the same things happen to him as well as he got older. It won't ever diminish who either was in his prime. I have heard Harwell's call of the 9th inning of Wilhelm's no-no, but I don't believe I have ever heard a recording of Red Barber doing a game.

I'm with you. I think there is less than a 50% chance the division will have 2 teams win 93 games this season. I'd say it's more like 30% that there will be 2 teams with 94 wins. So while the winning team may have 97, the 2nd place team is likely to have 92 or fewer, which is **close** to saying 93 wins is what it will take to win the division. It's not exactly the same, because the teams play each other, so 97 wins (say) reduces the chance of another team getting 93.

Listening to Vin Scully monolog his way through a broadcast with stories of a haunted hotel David Price stayed at in Scranton that don't have a punchline. It's a little like the following Jack Handy: I remember we were all horrified to see Grandpa up on the roof with his Superman cape on. "Get down!" yelled Uncle Lou. "Don't move!" screamed Grandma. But Grandpa wouldn't listen. He walked to the edge of the roof and stuck out his arms, like he was going to fly. I forget what happened after that. Don't get me wrong, it's remarkable Scully can do what he does at age 88. But on a non-age-adjusted basis, he's not a very good baseball announcer.

Only a game behind the Cubs now for the best record in baseball, but there is lots of competition.

If you are addicted to schaudenfreude, please take a read of Girardi's post-game press conference.

Wow, unreal 9th inning in the Bronx. To summarize: --Yankees led 6-5 when the inning started at 10:36 PM in a heavy rain. --Chapman walked the first hitter, then went 3-1 on the 2nd. --Girardi asked the umps to stop the game, which they did. --Rain delay lasted 3:35. --Play resumed at approximately 2:15 AM with Yates replacing Chapman. --Yates struck out the first batter then surrendered HBP, HBP, 2-run single, HBP, BB, 2-run single for a 9-6 lead. --Yankees go down in the bottom of the 9th without scoring. --Game ended at 2:45 AM on Ellsbury's flyout to left with 2 runners on, so the 9th inning took 4:09 of elapsed time to complete.

I thought at the time the ball was clearly not triple. It was played too quickly on the bounce off the door. If Bradley had to chase it down, it could have been 3. The way to tell with better certainty is to time from contact until pickup. It would be fair to say that Manny didn't know the ball would be picked up cleanly as he was jogging around first, so the effort was sub par.

How many consecutive strikes? I can see it had to be at least 33!

I come from an actuarial pricing background, not a securities background, but the interesting inputs/assumptions are: --derivation method for the future valuations and cash flows --discount rate --tax treatment of player income and dividends (is there double taxation) --Method by which Fantex can make money, including any elements that are not guaranteed --covenants and recourse of the investors --Who is the guarantor in the event Fantex fails? If anyone has access to "fine print" I would love to review.

You think like me. So many times I've wanted to do that on a futures wager where only 1 side is available. I can also recall thinking the same thing about a number of rookie cards when those were the rage in the 1980s. I recall wanting shorts on Pete Incaviglia and Pat Dodson. That said, I still have 800 Stan Javier cards sitting in my closet that will be part of my estate.

Very interesting. I wonder which investors are underwriting this risk and how the shares are paid off (article is not clear). I also wonder if the IRS has bought into this concept (whose IT rate is used? Is there double taxation?).

I think the problem is not evaluation by players and managers. That's like tabulating votes on a hotline to answer the question "Is life fair?" This screams out for electronic evaluation, even if an electronic strike zone is not employed. That will give feedback to the pitches missed that, when paired with video, will help umpires reduce the number of calls they miss. An electronic strike zone is inevitable in time, but I expect there will always be a home plate umpire as backup to make a call if the system fails. It's an attractive option to speed up play, because there will no longer be any target for argument. And I don't think any sport in which replay is now used is suffering any significant backlash from the process, so we have electronically assisted officiating in just about every sport.

That was the worst strike zone I have seen in a very long time. Chuck Meriwether comes to mind.