Filmstudy

So far this year in the AL: AL East: 65-37, .637 AL Rest: 84-113, .426 If you remove the division games (which by definition include .500 divisional record) AL East: 51-23, .689 The Orioles are one of several teams benefitting from the more balanced schedule.

That's the right neighborhood as I recall from Bill James talking about Henderson hurting the A's in 1982 (slightly) with his 128 SB season. It's also about right by the old linear weights model. One thing I don't often hear discussed is how not running enough can hurt you. The idea is this, the Orioles have stolen 25/28 successfully (89.2%), which is clearly a net positive of runs, but are they passing up on marginal opportunities to steal with an 80% success rate given the new environment for pitcher constraints/base-to-base distance? I'm not saying that is happening necessarily, but it's something to inspect with the team and league SB% in the stratosphere.

Through 18 games, the Orioles have now outwalked their opponents 87-49, an edge of 2.11 per game. This has been a return to the baseball of my youth (I became a fan in 1971), during which the 1968-1985 Orioles (coincident with the 18 consecutive winning seasons) outwalked their opponents in every single season and by an average of more than 100 per year. Some of it was pitching and some of it was the hitting, but the grinding always made baseball entertaining and dramatic to me. I hope the value of walks and all of the ancillary benefits from outstanding plate discipline are not again lost to Orioles lore if Elias and his team move on.

A couple of notes on Adley's historic day... 1. He raised his career OPS from .807 to .829 2. As has been widely discussed, that's the first 5-hit game ever on opening day for a catcher. To put that in context, since 1901, there have been 2786 opening day starting catchers (1393 games including 2023).

Did you mean to say "Why Not?"

Yes on Grayrod, Cowser, Holliday all I would expect for PV of earnings over $50M over 10 years and each is capable of dwarfing that number. Hall is a no, although I think he could be good. Too much risk as a pitcher who has yet to put it together and may be a reliever. I'll ride out his time as an Oriole and see how it goes. Norby (22) I see as an above-average ML hitter, but he will suffer some from Camden Yards. He'll likely be ready for a ML callup next September, so let's call it 9 ML seasons are possible. I'm not sure Norby or his agent would be thrilled about a contract that sends him to Free agency for his baseball age 33 season. I'm not thrilled about his position on the defensive spectrum, on which a lot of value is wagered or his plate disciplne, which I see as unproven. I think I'd say $35-40M is a risk I'd take to get a good RHB in the middle of a predominantly LH lineup. Mayo (21 in Dec) is young and has been doing OK relative to his level while much younger. We could see a big maturation in 2023, but I thought that about 2022 as well. His K rate is way up in 2022 and he's getting by with a BABIP he can't maintain. I think he has a good chance to be in the majors some time in 2024, but I'd factor for struggles with the ballpark and adjustment to ML pitching, since we've been seeing that. I think I can't come up with a number that would not insult Mayo, but 10 years for $28-36M is the sort of risk I'd be comfortable with. For him to sign such a contract, he'd have to be self-effacing enough to realize he might never make it for more than a year or 2. Ortiz (Turned 24 in July) is not a spring chicken and on a tremendous heater currently. IN a sense, we'd be buying at the highest his stock has ever been. However, we don't know where he'll play in the bigs or if the O's have room for another infielder. As a hitter, I'm most worried about his plate discipline and I think he could reduce his streakiness with a commitment to that. Ballpark concerns persist for a RHB. I also don't like the fact that a 10-year deal would mean just a couple of years of expected improvement before inevitable decline. He might very well understand now how tenuous his ML future is, but the $18-22M I think it is worth risking to lock him up until he's 34 won't be an exciting number to him. If you want to add 1 more name, I'd probably pay Jordan Westburg in the same range as Norby. Development track relative to age is close. Despite streakiness as a hitter, he's been extremely consistent in terms of total production for his time in the organization. This year, his XBH pop has made up for a significant decrease in BABIP, which seems more replicatable than the other way around. He'll also struggle with Camden Yards, but wouldn't it be great to find the needed RHBs in the minors rather than try to buy them via FA and possibly have to overpay.

The Diamondbacks won 77 games in 2005, so 7 more wins eclipses them. I'm hoping the Orioles top them by about 12.

Pretty cool twist. And it makes sense that anyone wearing a Stephen Vogt jersey must be a Vogt family member. There was a large A's fan contingent in that section, so I assume that's where all the comp seats were for players.

Back to Gunnar, though...tonight's game was another blast and the most fun I've had at a game since 2016 for sure. Why?: 1. Gunnar has looked good defensively at 3 positions. He's maintained the wait-and-hit style he showed in the minors (even at the cost of increased Ks), and he can fly. For his ABs, like Adley's, I won't miss a pitch fast forwarding (something I do for almost every Odor AB when watching on TV--I'm much less frustrated seeing his ABs run by in approximately 10 seconds than 2 minutes). 2. Pennant race baseball is tense and satisfying with every win and every moment of a really good game like tonight. I know I don't have to tell the older folks this. 3. This race is starting to feel like 1974 in terms of the Orioles ability to go on a streak and pick up a lot of ground in a hurry. The 1974 Orioles were 63-65 on August 28, 8 games behind the Red Sox. They won 10 straight (5 shutouts, none with more than 2 runs allowed) and trailed the Sox by just 1 game on the way to a hotly-contested race...with the Yankees that they won by 2 games. Replace Red Sox with Yankees, Yankees with Rays, and I'm not ready to give up hope the 2022 O's can make a run at the division. 4. A woman in a Vogt jersey in the section next to us (31, row 1) had a foul ball come back to her and reached up to make the catch (with a glove). She was absolutely shocked she caught the ball. About 4 innings later, another ball came right to her and she dropped it (boos on what was a much easier grab). 5. Getting back to Adley. Everything about that bases-loaded walk was great. He walked up towards the plate to pinch hit for Hays, who appeared genuinely surprised he was getting pulled (it looked like Hays thought Adley had come out of the dugout to bat for Mateo). Great PA to draw the walk. My wife, Maureen said "I'm on the phone for a walk" before hand and was deleriously happy with herself after the go-ahead RBI. That wouldn't normally matter, but on the way back to the car she asked if Saturday was a night game also and said we should try to go again. She's the right girl for me.

I get catalogs regularly from 2 big auction houses (Heritage and Goldin) with cards that I enjoy seeing in a catalog, but will never buy. Let me start by saying I both love and hate the 1971 black border Topps set. My first year collecting cards, but they were simply impossible to keep in decent shape (for a 7-year old kid, anyway). So I have the full 1971 set (completed in the 1980s). I then saw the 1971 Thurman Munson (#5, gutter common first series) just sold via Heritage Auction for $200,000 in mint condition (not sure if it was 9, 9.5, or 10). I have the card, but it probably rates a 2-3 by today's condition standards, which makes it worth perhaps $20-50 (I'm guessing). The point is that while I really enjoyed collecting at one time, hyper focus on the extreme right end of the condition curve has turned me off.

I think the answer to the original question is that the baselines for WP are based on league average performance from that point forward in the game. That said, I don't know if they use a 3-year rolling average or just 2022, or whatever to model win probabilities by game/base/out situation.

When talking about the offseason for football players I say that they all work out to stay in shape and what the great ones do is get positional coaching. In Creed's case, I think he needs to dedicate himself to conditioning, both dropping a bunch of weight and finding a dietary routine he can follow to stay in shape on the road next season.

Stowers batting 5th tonight.

I didn't see a prior post for him. I notice he has been returned to the FCL for today's game, which will be his 4th stop this season (Bowie, Aberdeen, Delmarva also). That screams out "organizational guy" who they can move around to fill holes as needed like Cullen, Yahn, and others we've seen over the last couple of years. Then I looked and he's only 20 (born 2/2/02). Is it unusual that a player is designated as an organizational piece at such a young age? I have seen there are some fairly significant rules/penalties for improperly reporting age, but do any of the 1980s questions about the veracity of age for Dominican players still exist today and perhaps extend to other players born outside the US (Mantecon is Cuban)?

With him turning 24 in July and the current hot streak, I'm surprised the Orioles have not moved him up to let him either succeed or fail forward in 100 or so AAA PAs.

Sorry, I see the thread duplication here, please merge.

Non-heated discussion on twitter about how many wins it will take. I would take the over on 86.5 for the last spot, even though that means some teams are going to have to improve from their current winning percentages to get there. Reasoning: 1) September Effect says contenders play better and those out of contention play worse 2) Trades that reinforce disparity have not yet shown up in cumulative winning percentages 3) Teams that have more to play for are more likely to bring up minor leaguers that can truly help them down the stretch 4) There are 7 AL teams contending for the Central title plus 3 WCs, all of which have between a .521 and .539 winning percentage currently 5) There are 6 weak sisters in the AL (I'm including the Red Sox) which have a combined record of 296-407 (.421). I'd expect a drop off to perhaps .370 down the stretch which is going to help a lot of contenders fatten up. Let's hear your over/under on wins for the last AL WC.

The "September Effect" originally postulated by Bill James would tell you it will take more than 85 games. Winning teams get better in September, losing teams get worse when the games don't matter with trades/salary dumps making substantial contributions.

the 1951 New York Giants had a record of 59-51 and trailed the Dodgers by 13 games. Earlier (5/25) they had called up one of the best prospects in baseball just 3 weeks after his 20th birthday. Despite a slump that dropped his OPS from .926 on 8/11 to .826 at the end of the season, The Giants went 37-8 down the stretch until Thompson's HR beat Branca. The Orioles are 58-52 and trail the Yankees by 12 pending a result on 8/11 and have one of the best prospects in baseball at AAA. Just saying.

Another note on Rutschman's amazing rookie year... Most of what we have heard to date in terms of greatness involves projection to a 162-game season or rate statistics like OPS. However, as of Today, in 60 games (!), Adley Rutschman has the 16th highest WAA (2.0, a cumulative statistic) for any rookie catcher in MLB history. https://stathead.com/tiny/JXsmY If he continues at the same rate, he'll crack the top 5 of all time with almost 4 WAA which could put him as high as 3rd all time behind only Fisk and Piazza, but ahead of Thurman Munson, Josh Gibson, Johnny Bench, and Buster Posey.

Analogous player from the 1980s...Tom O'Malley. Analogous isn't exactly the right word, since I think Vavra has the potential to be much better, but meteoric in-season rise was similar. He wasn't a rookie in 1986, but was a 25-year-old, LHB, utility infielder with less than 1000 career ABs. Weaver liked something about him after a brief hot streak and installed him as the 3 hitter at Fenway Park on 6/22/86 and then left him there for 4 games. Even Earl played the hot hand once in a while instead of hi more common hitter vs pitcher stats. O'Malley lasted until age 29 and played for 6 teams.

Can we move this to the "Minors" forum when he gets DFA'd?

Maybe this is a more interesting question...with what technology have you kept up with scoreboard watching over the years. I'll start as best I can recall: Internet/smartphone for about the last 12 years Blackberry when not around a PC before then for maybe 2-3 years Internet PC from about 2000-07 A box I had from Stats Inc (forget the name of it, but it was about the size of a pager) in the late 1990s that would allow you to see the score/base/out situation in any game Earlier in the 1990s--ESPN or the actual scoreboard at Camden Yards, which was a big improvement over Memorial Stadium--In that era I wanted the Orioles to have a "featured opponent" game where they would give the score/base/out situation continuously, but that never came to be. 1990-91 when scoring games in the press box I could go back to the AP (I think) wire to see what was happening in another big game. 1978 through most of the 1980s--postgame show then wait for scores to come up on the 11 PM news or call the scores hotline for the TV station (they all had these set up to avoid calls and that's actually how I found out the final score of the 1980 US/USSR hockey which was showed delayed here) 1971-77 If I didn't catch it on the postgame show, morning paper was the next shot (the Sun did a good job delivering late scores back then, including O's west coast games) We've come a long way in terms of satisfying our need for instant sports information.

For the first time in several years, I watched the end of the Mariners/Angels game on Friday with an Orioles rooting interest. It's feeling good to watch the scoreboard again! Tonight, doing so again and the Ms are losing game 2 6-1 in the 9th to LAA.

I wonder if there is something more going on with the Diplan release. He's not yet 26 and was pitching decently for Norfolk.