btdart20
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Posts posted by btdart20
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A's RP Lucas Erceg was placed on the IL with a forearm issue. If it's something serious, that will have an impact on the RP trade market.
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9 hours ago, emmett16 said:
It seems to me they should probably change their approach or the season will end up a disaster. It’s frankly unexplainable they haven’t demoted/traded/DFA’d the players that aren’t performing. It’s a joke management thinks this group of players has any chance of winning anything. Imagine if they could just walk more..
And no help from the "pipeline". Can we discuss competing in the payroll race?
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Dustin Ackley says hi too!
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2 hours ago, Jagwar said:
CBS Sports suggests 5 names Atlanta could pursue.
- Tommy Pham - CWS
- Taylor Ward - LAA
- Brent Rooker - OAK
- Bryan De La Cruz - MIA
- Jesse Winker - WAS
Does Elias call offering Hays? Does Antho screen that call?
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Just now, Can_of_corn said:
Why did Ohtani?
They want to compete in the majors, with the team of their choice.
That's not my question.
Why would he sign for $3m with LAD when he can sign for $5+m (or whatever) with the 2025 LAD pool of money?
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19 hours ago, Warehouse said:
The Dodgers wouldn’t have left over $3 million unused in their bonus pool if they weren’t confident in signing him. They don’t operate like that.
Why would he sign for the 2024 $3 million instead of waiting for the next bucket of money? Maybe there's already an agreement before he's technically available?
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More smoke to the Sasaki to the MLB rumors. If so, he'll be an international amateur signing.
https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2025-international-signing-bonus-pools-for-each-mlb-team/
Which gives WS contenders better odds if they're in on the bidding.
Does a team push all of their bonus money in on one guy? Are the O's one of those teams?
I like the risk reward here. Do we have enough to beat a west coast team preference (LAD, SEA namely)?
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The fans.
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Eli's math says Wells' slider looks like his FB... until it doesn't.
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https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/05/steinbrenner-current-payroll-not-sustainable.html
This one could go in a few different spots but thought NYY payroll mostly impacts the SP market as it relates to the O's.
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11 hours ago, Frobby said:
Pretty good effort from Baumeister tonight: 4.2 IP, 0 R, 4 H, 3 BB, 7 K’s. 43 of 72 pitches for strikes. You’d like to see fewer walks/more strikes, but I’m glad to see 15.4 P/IP.
I got to see a few IP. Most (all?) of the bad stuff happened early because he he was throwing a lot strikes when I was watching. Some good benders mixed in too.
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5 minutes ago, Frobby said:
Is there a list anywhere of all the players who have been DFA in MLB this year?
Yep
https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/transaction-tracker?&transactiontype=dfa
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33 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:
Does she prefer Baseball Reference or Fangraphs?
BRef doesn't track barrel rates.
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29 minutes ago, ShoelesJoe said:
I don't quite agree with your math, and here is why: Gunnar is averaging 4.49 plate appearances per game when he starts. Let's compare that to somebody who regularly bats 3rd or 4th in the lineup -- Ryan Mountcastle is averaging 4.35 plate appearances when he starts. The difference between the two, over the course of an entire season, would be 23 plate appearances. But Mountcastle has come up to bat 81 times so far with men on base, while Gunnar has come up only 68 times in those situations. We're 28% into the season, do the math and Mountcastle would come up 46 more times with men on base than Henderson over the course of the season, even though he'd have 23 fewer plate appearances.
In which scenario would Gunnar likely do more damage?
A) 23 more PA at leadoff (2/3 of which will probably be with the bases empty)
or B) 23 fewer PA all told batting 3rd or 4th, but 46 more PA with men on base?
I think he'd do more damage with B, but maybe I'm missing something.
PS -- it took me a while to do the calculations and put all that down on paper. I see now that Frobby made pretty much the same argument as I did in about a tenth the time. Coke to Frobby.
Better and deeper hitting quality is a bigger factor than batting order. But I still want my dynamic hitters getting more PAs.
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The OP frames it well. It's about the risk/reward appetite. And the biggest risk is a long term guaranteed deal.
I would try to stagger/ladder the maturity date of our investment portfolio to aid decision making. FA markets change from year to year. Trade markets too. Having assets near maturity and not having too many assets maturing at once is (IMHO) a key piece of sustainability.
I'd offer a front loaded contract with a player opt out after 2 years to maximize the Adley Years. Something that puts $90m guaranteed in the Burnes Family Trust. Then drops to whatever projectable glide path with annual player opt outs.
From Burnes' perspective that gives him another FA option after his age 31 season. Young enough go still go for length and max $ along the lines of deGrom.
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52 minutes ago, emmett16 said:
Gunnar has already had 19 more PA than the #2 most (Adley), 22 more PA than the #3 most (Santander), 27 more PA than #4 (Westburg), and 29 more PA than #5 (Mountcastle). That is just over 1/4 of the season. Batting him 4th means that he will very often get only 4 PA per game instead of 5, and that 5th PA will take place at a critical time in the 9th inning. He hits a HR every 12.6 PAs (this year & every 19.9 PA career) so batting him second is coughing up 1-2 HR so far this season, 3rd or 4th is -3HR....and that's in just a little over 1/4 of the season. So, by moving him to 3rd or 4th you're taking away ~10HR over the course of a full season. Instead of putting him lower in the line-up, I'd like to see a higher OBP guy in front of him in the 9 spot. Gunnar has the tools to be a tremendous lead-off hitter.
This! Part of the evolution of the game.
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33 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:
Elias for not bringing back Frazier?
Pouring one out for my home, Odor... Forgotten too soon.
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Core for '24: Adley, Mounty, O'Hearn, Gunnar, Westburg, Santa, Mullins, Cowser.
* Hays is probably core. But he's the RHH OF in flux.
Defensive role floor: Mateo, McCann
That leaves Urias and a bench bat. That's just roster spots, not PAs.
Mayo and Holliday have to prove it before we count of them for the post-season. We can win without them. It's not a foregone conclusion that 2024 Holliday is better than 2024 Mateo.
* Holliday and Mayo could be up for Urias and the bench bat. Playing time would come from Mateo and Hays and an assortment of cannibalizing others/each other. Possible but improbable. Maybe both when the rosters expand, then see if we catch lightning.
HKs profile is tantalizing in a DL Hall sort of way. Big difference is the MOO bat vs. the high CSW% ceiling. How does the Sigbot handicap that for a BP upgrade?
Agree with @Matt Bennett on Mateo. Cherry-picking stats to fit a narrative misses a piece of the puzzle. Let's not fall into an echo chamber thinking that Mateo isn't some type of contributor. Mateo is all about risk management, a Sig specialty. Mateo has been quite good defensively at 2B. Our IF has to be pretty close to top-in-class for range.
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Nunez needs a thread and is spinning it so far tonight (4 IP 0 BB 9 K so far).
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14 minutes ago, Malike said:
Oh, they literally claim that a limitation to it is that command has nothing to do with how they rank it. Two of the top 10 teams according to Stuff+ are 3rd and 4th worst in team walks in all of baseball.
Edit for the apparently easily confused. If you can be among the best in the league with Stuff+ and be among the worst in the league in BB%, I don't think it adds real context.
Nowhere did I say stuff+ = low BB%. They are two separate skills. I'm talking about the thread topic not what stuff+ uses.
My point is that O's happen to be good at both. The teams you referenced aren't good at both.
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5 minutes ago, Malike said:
Okay they seem to have left it off of their graph of how they calculate Stuff+
Left what off? BB%? I wasn't saying that BB% was part of stuff+. I was saying BB% adds context to what the stuff+ says.
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7 minutes ago, Malike said:
Sure but in the top 10 are TB, HOU, CWS, TOR who are all near the bottom of the league in pitching. It's a fun metric that I put no weight in.
It's a navigational beacon like any stat. BB% gives practical results to stuff+ models.
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47 minutes ago, Malike said:
I've always been dubious of Stuff+ because it doesn't account for command at all. No matter how good a pitch is, even if it can't be thrown for a strike, Stuff+ will still love it. (I'm looking at you Fujinami)
4th in team BB% helps.
Elias addressing media at 4:05 today
in Orioles Talk
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Brutal news for Means and Wells. Godspeed on their surgeries and recovery.
From a team standpoint, it's far from a shipwrecked season. Contributions from them were "nice to haves" not "need to haves". We've still got 3 hosses. We've got Kremer, Irvin, and Suarez also on the 26. Plus Povich in AAA. Maybe even McDermott. I doubt we target a #1-2 SP type (unless there's team control involved). Maybe a depth guy bit probably not.
Bullpen is still the position of need.