btdart20
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Posts posted by btdart20
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20 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:
Lol, this!
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8 hours ago, Frobby said:
Thought about it, but it’s really hard to judge defense based on 33 games. Overall I think it’s close to a wash. What do you think?
C, 1B, SS, and RF = bump
2B Mateo/Westburg > Frazier
3B Westburg > Urias
CF healthy Mullins > dinged up Mullins
LF Cowser seems like more range than Hays.
Another category is the bench. That's a tougher read because of RIP strategy and how 2023 maximized the matchups. Gunnar took a while but showed things. Hicks and O'Hearn were gems. 2024 bench has Westburg graduated and Cowser flashing his upside plus a good defense. O'Hearn has built on his success and is now a trusted strong side platoon. Mateo was a bench guy coming in and is now performing (fingers crossed). Last year we were tossing vets against the wall to see what sticks. This year we're tossing the young talent against the wall.
Bullpen feels more balanced vs Bautista/Cano dominated. TBD...
Rotation is more trustworthy. Each have some questions but the floor feels much more stable because of the depth.
We knew the offense was going to score. And we still haven't really gotten many hard hits from our #4. But to balance it out we've had a couple going nuts with not much history before it. Only real surprise is less BBs to do it.
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It bumps more realistic topics off the front page quicker.
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Congrats to McDermott!
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This is the first time Santa has hit 5th this season.
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Get past their SPs and into their mediocre BP...
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18 hours ago, Sports Guy said:
Can’t believe Povich isn’t #1
/s
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1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:
Yes..whole career. We are talking about how someone can perform at this level, correct?
Now, you provided something worth discussing.
Blake Snell has made an excellent pro career with poor str% numbers.
He is an exception to the rule for sure. (aJ Burnett is probably another guy)
Do you think Povich has the stuff and ability to be what Snell has been?
And btw, the numbers you are showing are for qualified players only. That makes it a little misleading when you say 50th. 50th is actually at or near the bottom of qualified starters. That isn’t good, just so you know. (We have already proven that math isn’t your strong point here)
Dude, no one is saying Povich is going to be a top 30 pitcher in the game. He can find success as a LHP in the bottom 20% of str%. Again, LHP get leash...
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36 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:
Mayo now has 22 homers at AAA and doesn’t turn 23 until after this season. Barring injury (to him or at the MLB level getting him called up), chance he ends up with 40+ homers in AAA before age 23. I wonder how often that’s ever been done before? Have to figure that most prospects good enough to do that get called up before they accumulate enough AAA ABs to do it.
@Jim'sKid26 @DrungoHazewood - When people compare us to the Rays, this is exhibit A in my mind. Depth, transition management, "slow rolling", match-ups... (and the low payroll but that's another thread).
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1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:
Early on I tend to not move guys much at the top unless of extreme performances one way or the other. You could argue Povich's start is an extremely good start and he could be bumped up. They're pretty exchangeable as prospects talent goes so I wouldn't argue if someone thought Povich belonged ahead of Beavers.
That's fair. I've been higher on Povich than most for the last two years, so my bias is probably showing a bit too. At this rate, it'll be interesting to see how he pops on mid-season nationals... it wouldn't shock me if jumps into top 50s.
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1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:
I just never got the Carter love or why anyone thought he should get the bonus he got. He was coming off a horrid junior season and even in his "breakout" sophomore season he struck out too much against inferior college pitching.
I've never seen him flash a plus tool, he was a huge disappointment defensively, and he just can't hit.
The fact that they spent 30K on a guy like Jalen Vasquez and he looks like a much better player in almost every aspect really shows that no matter how far evaluations have come, there are still going to busts and guys who "overachieve" based on draft status.
The one thing the Carter situation hopefully taught the Orioles brass is that you can't just ignore college stats (particularly when they are not good) from a hitter's perceptive. They've tried this tact a few times now and not surprising, they can't hit in the pros either.
IIRC, the hope for Carter was if there was something hidden by the injury... He was touted, then got hurt, them crapped the bed, then a dice roll and some $. Unfortunately, he’s still waking up a mess.
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13 hours ago, Just Regular said:
April 2024 - BAL ranked 26th MLB-wide, as the offensive strategy Do Damage looks very clear - even Adley is partying. Buck and Adam Jones are probably enjoying this brand of run production.
Player, and April percentile among MLB bats, 70 PA minimum, in Chase Rate:
O'Hearn 92
Cowser 84
Gunnar 72
Mullins 53
Westburg 36
Adley 24
Mountcastle 10
Santander 7
All that damage resulted in league best wRC+ and runs/game. We'll see if opposing pitchers start nibbling more trying to hide from the smashes.
Gunnar in MVP mode looks like maybe he's finding that happy medium. Is Adley experimenting or evolving?
Feels pretty clear that the brass trusts their talent. Previously it was about working every angle to close the talent gap. Now we're coaching to let them eat.
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Just now, btdart20 said:
rarpy
The alpha lion version of "early".
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11 hours ago, Tony-OH said:
Updated
Prerty stable rarpy on, which makes sense.
Was there much of a decision between Beavers and Povich? Not that Beavers deserves to be bumped down, but it does feel like Povich deserves a bump up. Especially doing it at AAA.
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20 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:
He's probably next in line for a promotion to Bowie. I'd like to see him a little more power from him for his size, but he's doing well overall.
Gotta like the BB:K ratio and there's hope in the adage of "doubles become HRs".
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12 hours ago, SteveA said:
6706 fans witnessed history today.
I hope they got the stubs for that one!
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Stanton's swing at Webb's noncompetitive slider in the dirt was comedic. That's what a commitment to a bad contract looks like...
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28 minutes ago, dystopia said:
Kremer was lucky with the placement of a lot of those ground balls yesterday, but Judge and Stanton don’t have much speed so that also helps. He may have been lucky but who cares, he got results and we won. That stuff evens out.
Sure. But I'll take grounders from Judge and the ghost of Stanton all day, any day.
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2 hours ago, Tony-OH said:
It honestly boggles my mind that every single Shorebirds offensive prospects has complete crapping the bed and we've started into May. I know they are young, but wow, Sosa, Tavera and Estrada to a lesser extent because he wasn't though of as highly have really struggled to make the jump from the FCL.
I'm learning a valuable lesson though about ranking these international players too high until they've proven themselves in Low-a ball at least. The track record of the international hitting prospects after Basallo, and Bencosme to a lesser extent has really been disappointing once they hit Low-A ball.
Whatever is being worked on in the DSL and FCL for hitting techniques really needs to be looked at because it's not translating to the field.
I think Koby Perez has done a great job overall, but he really needs some of these guys to start having some success above rookie ball. It's still early, but man, every time I look at a box score I see another 0-fer with multiple Ks.
I'm also realizing i need to wait until I see these guys in live games before ranking them so high based on the feedback I received because these guys who really not proving it at levels where it starts to really matter.
Is our approach to players in low A any different from other organizations? Are we younger or maybe more international heavy?
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1 minute ago, sportsfan8703 said:
Can Mayo and Norby pitch out the pen?
Mayo would be fun to see try!
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2 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:
They need to give him at least 2 months to get in a grove and work on the things that they told him to work on.
I know there was a lot of speculation, but do we know they have asked him to work on anything? Has anyone seen a change in his swing or whatever in AAA? Or is mostly about AAA experience before trying to rip the rookie packaging off a second time?
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Neither are on the 40. Both would add risk to the floor. Both have a higher ceiling with a good chance of not reaching it in the 2024 season. Both could surpass Urias this year though, assuming we're committed to their MLB PAs. In any case, I don't think the NYY series is the right timing.
I like the long-term thought, especially for Mayo, but think we're not there yet.
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Ideally, he would take the next step with his FB command. Fortunately, the velo difference and quality CH sets him apart. Still a stud.
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18 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:
SSS alert but Cowser’s OAA is an outstanding +3 early on…94 percentile.
The defense in LF looks legit, so even if he’s slumping at the plate (which he will because he does have a good bit of swing and miss in his game), he should help in the field. The arm is legit, he had good sprint and in game speed, so he will help in a lot of ways.
He had a good play in the 9th back in the LF nook/corner on the drive off Coulombe.
The Defense Thread, 2024
in Orioles Talk
Posted
This play was that unique confluence of situational awareness, hustle, speed, athleticism, and arm. Turned an easy advance on an error into an out without a slide. Mateo is hungry.