Brooks The Great
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Posts posted by Brooks The Great
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1 minute ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:
Time to pinch hit Adley, Cowser and Stowers. I have zero faith outside another Gunnar home run that the Orioles will more runs tonight.
Hyde went a long way towards losing this game with another one of his terrible lineups. Bottom 5 hitters are 1/15 tonight. Mullins and Hays should not be playing over Cowser and Stowers.
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- Popular Post
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We're at a point in the season where there's enough of a sample size to make some meaningful observations, and it's clear to me that the main issue of this year's Orioles team is the offense, specifically the team's inability to get on base, and the team's over-reliance on solo home runs to generate a bulk of its run production. Even more specifically, the team's veterans are the root of the offensive problem, and it's time to address the problem with roster changes and playing time adjustments.As of today, the following are Orioles hitters on the current roster with an OBP below .300 in order of most at bats to least at bats:Anthony Santander - .283Ryan Mountcastle - .296Cedric Mullins - .242Jorge Mateo - .292Brian McCann - .208Austin Hays - .221Ramon Urias - .226Quite literally all of this team's underperforming hitters are the veterans with more than 3 years of MLB experience - Ryan O'Hearn (.349 OBP) is the only veteran hitter on the team with an OBP above .300. And O'Hearn hasn't been anything special at the plate recently, as he's produced a mediocre .641 OPS over the past 15 days. At his peak on April 16, O'Hearn stood at .333 AVG / .400 OBP / 1.089 OPS. His line is now .276 / .349 / .823 OPS, so to sink to that line, O'Hearn has hit poorly over the course of the past 5 weeks.All those hitters slumping and not working counts and drawing walks is directly responsible for our offensive slump recently, and it's why the team's offense is way too one-dimensional - relying mostly on solo home runs to win games.During the offseason, I took issue with Mike Elias keeping O'Hearn on this year's team because O'Hearn would be blocking multiple prospects such as Heston Kjerstad, Coby Mayo, Connor Norby, and Kyle Stowers at the DH spot. A more specific discussion on O'Hearn is better left for another thread, but it's a good place to mention that a solution to this offense's issues is to start significantly cutting playing time for the veterans, and give this team's prospects (specifically Kjerstad, Stowers, and Norby until Mayo is healthy) more of a legitimate opportunity for regular playing time. And to be clear, I'm not blaming O'Hearn specifically for the team's offensive struggles. He's clearly been one of the team's best hitters thus far and he uses an approach at the plate I wish more of the struggling older hitters would take a page from. But I do strongly believe Mike Elias shouldn't have brought him back this season because the team already had a logjam with its hitting prospects.Moving onto the team's management, the way Mike Elias and Brandon Hyde handled Heston Kjerstad during his MLB stint this season was absolutely terrible. It was irresponsible to call up an elite power bat prospect (who was ripping up AAA pitching at the time) such as Kjerstad and have a player like that sit on the bench and rot, relegated to very irregular starts and pinch-hitting. Elias and Hyde are now making the same irresponsible mistake with Kyle Stowers, but it's time to start making some adjustments and learn from those roster management and player development errors. Play the young prospects.I'd like to see Elias call up Kjerstad and Norby immediately, and relegate Mullins and Hays to strictly bench defensive outfield roles. Anthony Santander should also be platooned more and start seeing fewer at bats until he comes out of his slump (if he ever does), as he's had pronounced L/R splits this season. Santander has no future on this team past this season, so there's more incentive to cut his playing time in favor of a prospect who fits more into the long-term plans with this organization (or who can help build trade value for needed assets at the trade deadline).Colton Cowser can slide over to CF and play there every day, while Kjerstad can be installed as the new everyday LF with Kyle Stowers getting regular at bats in RF against righties and some lefties. Connor Norby can get at bats as the DH against LHP whenever Adley isn't DHing, and Norby can also split some time in RF with Santander against LHP.The O's will be sacrificing defense to do this, but Mike Elias and Brandon Hyde have never truly valued defense - they just claim to value it. Otherwise, they would have never stuck with Rougned Odor and Adam Frazier - two of the worst defensive 2B in baseball - for entire seasons. And they wouldn't let Ryan O'Hearn ever see the outfield, but they do.Most of the time, there's a defensive and offensive tradeoff for players. In this team's case, the offensive upside of our prospects warrant a look despite their defensive shortcomings. And the defensive value of the veterans (specifically Mullins and Hays) quite simply do not justify the cost of their abysmal offensive production.I believe strongly that Mullins and Hays are done as productive regulars, and if that's not the case, they can prove it in limited roles while Elias and Hyde get a look at players that are much more likely to be part of this team's future (or also possibly enhance their value as trade chips in certain cases).The younger players on this team have carried it offensively, and the MLB-ready prospects currently in the minors along with Stowers should get a long look to see if they can improve the offense's shortcomings and turn it into a truly elite offense. Giving regular reps to Kjerstad, Norby, Stowers, and eventually Mayo will also help them get acclimated to MLB pitching sooner, and put them in a better position to help the team in the playoffs.I hope to see Elias make some significant changes soon, and have Hyde move away from the vets. This team is sorely in need of it.-
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Just now, sportsfan8703 said:
There’s probably a shorter curve for Santa to figure it out versus Kjerstad’s learning curve at the MLB level. It is what it is.
Kjerstad had ABs up here. Man, this dudes have been playing baseball their whole lives. He should’ve done something. His defense sucked too. I really like Kjerstad, cool story overcoming myocarditis, but produce bro. Not shedding tears for him.
Kjerstad hasn't gotten a fair opportunity to show what he can do. If you think that he has, we'd never be able to even have a reasonable discussion about it because I couldn't disagree more, and it'd be because we view the game of baseball completely differently.
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14 minutes ago, ledzepp8 said:
I agree that Mullins is probably just about out of a starting job (and he should be) but I don't think you're going to find too many GMs and managers that will just bench veteran starters that just helped a team win 101 games and the division the year before.
Mullins has been awful (one of the worst OFs in baseball offensively) going back to last season, though. Hays, too. It's also very clear at this point that multiple injuries have made Mullins a shell of the player he was in 2021. So I disagree, I think plenty of GMs would make changes with players performing this poorly for this long.
Make Mullins a 4th OF/defensive replacement and give Kjerstad and Stowers a month of everyday at bats, mixing in Norby in RF and DH as well. If any of those young players struggle and Mullins starts putting together competitive at bats in a limited role, then re-evaluate.
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1 minute ago, Frobby said:
Sorry, that’s a blunder. You can’t get caught with your pants down like that.
Yep, that's an inexcusable, amateur mistake with the game on the line.
It's not a good example for Hyde and Elias to be setting to let veterans make mistakes and also hit so poorly for so long, while guys like Kjerstad, Stowers, and Norby (and Westburg and Cowser last season) get no such opportunities to play regularly and make mistakes/struggle.
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Time to pull the plug on both Mullins and Hays. We have options worth playing over them in Kjerstad (sliding Cowser to CF) and Stowers.
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7 minutes ago, Philip said:
This thread is about to close, but can somebody please tell me why hide made the pitching choices that he made? They are literally, and I’m not being rhetorical here I mean, literally, indefensible. There was no excuse for him to do what he did. It was objectively wrong.
I just wanna know what his objectively wrong reasoning wasHe's a bad manager, that's why. A bad manager's bad moves never make sense. Most people don't realize Hyde isn't a good manager because this is a talented team that wins despite all of his incorrect moves, or they just don't want to accept that a winning team can have a terrible manager.
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6 minutes ago, Roy Firestone said:
I agree with most of this.I think Kjerstad deserved a good long look and lots of at bats...we mismanaged him...I would sit Mullins...and put Cowser in CF. He might not dazzle, but he'd be serviceable..what ISNT serviceable is Mullins bat...or lack of it..
Exactly. Cowser can easily slide over to CF, which allows Kjerstad to play LF every day and Santander in RF. And if Santander needs to go on the IL due to being banged up at the moment, or if Tony continues to struggle, give Stowers a long look in RF. And bring Norby up to play RF/DH against lefties to give us more balance until Coby is back from his rib injury - this team is way too lefty-hitter dominant right now.
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4 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:
A .106 XBA is pretty pitiful. Amazing how bad this offense is right now. Seems the hitting coaches are not doing a very good job of preparing these guys because it's crazy to think they all suck at the same time.
The issue is Hyde and his Buck Showalter-like loyalty to struggling veterans, and Elias mishandling our hitting prospects. There are too many guys in the lineup with OBPs below .300 and they're all vets - Mullins, Hays, Mateo, Mountcastle, Santander. Mullins and Hays need to be phased out immediately, but Hyde is way too slow and too dumb to do it.
We had a premium power bat in Kjerstad who should have been playing every day while he was up, but instead he was treated like some sort of scrub and rotted on the bench, rarely playing. That's terrible management by Elias and Hyde.
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Gunnar
Westburg
Grayson
Mayo
Holliday (wait until the offseason and there may be a "buy low" extension opportunity compared to this recent spring training/this past offseason, although that's unlikely with Boras)
Burnes
Cowser
Adley
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12 minutes ago, Hallas said:
A lot of teams (likely driven by analytics) are putting their best overall hitter at 2 (like the Yankees batting Soto 2, and the Dodgers batting Shohei 2) to maximize ABs while guaranteeing that a high-OBP guy is batting in front of him to give him opportunities with men on base. That's probably what we want. It seems logical considering how thoroughly debunked small-ball in the first inning has been. Rutschman at 3 is fine.
It's fine, but I would personally prefer having Cowser and Adley taking tons of pitches back-to-back before Gunnar further punishes the opposing starting pitcher with high exit velo barrels.
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4 minutes ago, Hallas said:
Realistically I think Adley as the leadoff guy is the best lineup for us but if he has trouble batting leadoff in half the games because he can't get his catcher's gear off fast enough then I get it.
Cowser has continued to be incredibly patient, and if Adley can't be our leadoff guy then Cowser is probably our next best option. Of course Cowser also hits a lot of bombs, so it'd be interesting if he goes on another heater.
If Cowser gets off the schneid then Cowser leadoff and Gunnar at 2 could be incredibly potent. I don't think Cowser is actually playing that badly, he's just been running into some bad luck. And he's starting to wake up a little bit anyway.
I was going to say pretty much the same thing about Cowser in my post, but left out my thoughts to keep the post more Gunnar-centric. But I totally agree that Cowser fits the best as this team's leadoff hitter, especially since Holliday doesn't look like he's going to make an impact offensively as early as most of us thought heading into the season.
Going back to last season, I've said Cowser has the best mix of patience, hit tool, power, and speed to be a great leadoff hitter. The strikeouts are most likely always going to be high with him, but he has .380-.400+ OBP makeup, and having someone like that hitting leadoff with Adley and Gunnar hitting directly behind Cowser is going to set things up for an elite offense which is much more dynamic and less one-dimensional than the what we've seen up until this point.
Cowser
Adley
Gunnar
Westburg
O'Hearn
Santander
Mountcastle
Is an ideal top 7 against RHP for right now, with Kjerstad (replacing Hays) and Mayo (essentially replacing Mateo and bumping Westburg to 2B) making the lineup legitimately scary within the next couple months. Mullins and Hays need to be phased out, with Santander and Mountcastle not far behind if those two continue struggling and not reaching base enough to justify hitting in the middle of the order.
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52 minutes ago, ShoelesJoe said:
Your best POWER hitter should get the most at bats with men on base. Gunnar is third on the team in OB%, but far and away the leader in SLG%. Heck, right now he has the highest SLG% in the AL. Yet he has the fewest ABs with men on base of any of our regulars. Batting him leadoff gives Gunnar more opportunities to hit HRs and score runs, but fewer opportunities to drive in runs. 75% of Henderson's HRs have been hit with the base empty. Compare that to Ohtani (62%), Tucker (60%), Ozuna (57%), Naylor (50%), or Judge (46%).
Agreed, appreciate the stats.
Gunnar isn't a leadoff hitter - he's a prototypical #3 hitter or cleanup hitter. Hyde writes poor lineups, and Gunnar hitting leadoff has been one of the consistent problems with the offense this season. Gunnar hitting mostly solo shots is both a consequence and reflection of this offense's flaws - the O's have too many low-OBP hitters in the lineup (hitting in less-than-optimal spots for the most part) and are too reliant on solo homers to generate runs.
At least Hyde has started hitting Westburg leadoff against LHP, which is progress, but Hyde is way too stubborn and too slow to make the correct adjustments. He's very similar to Buck Showalter in that respect.
Anyway, I look forward to Hyde waking up and moving Gunnar down to #3/#4 against RHP.
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It was an absolutely brutal call. I can't wait for the challenge system on balls and strikes. Umpires are terrible at their jobs.
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5 hours ago, Frobby said:
I assume you know that Mateo had a successful sac bunt yesterday, right?
McCann is an excellent bunter. Last year he got one down on a pitch that nearly hit him in the face.
Mateo has a track record of being terrible bunter, especially someone with his speed and awful hit tool (you'd think he'd try to improve as a bunter). One successful sac bunt yesterday doesn't change that.
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8 minutes ago, Hank Scorpio said:
More dumb shit from Hyde. Just pathetic.
He's easily the worst manager in baseball, he's only won because he's had so many talented players at his disposal. As I've said countless times on this board, the Orioles have won DESPITE Hyde and his horrible decisions.
Glad to see Adley bail Hyde out, but we're in major trouble with Hyde managing this team in the playoffs.
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3 minutes ago, e16bball said:
If keeping McCann in the game to try to squeeze in Santander is the decision over PH-ing O’Hearn in that situation, then the Adley as DH strategy has to die.
Hyde as manager has to end. But unfortunately it will take him making moronic decisions like the McCann bunt to lose us a playoff series to get him fired.
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I'm probably the biggest Hyde critic on the entire board, so I'll give him credit on the following good moves for today's lineup:
1. Moving Gunnar out of the leadoff spot
2. Moving Westburg up in the lineup (even though he was hitting 7th in yesterday's lineup, which was bad) to leadoff against a LHP
3. Keeping Cowser in the lineup despite most people's inclination to bench Cowser due to his slump. One of the reasons Gunnar is so improved against LHP this season is because he played every day last season and took his lumps against lefties.
However, starting Mullins against a lefty is terrible. Mullins is unplayable right now in general, but against LHP this season, he's slashing .128/.171/.350. It's inexcusable to start Mullins against any lefty, end of story. Even if Mullins goes 4/4 with a HR today, it's bad baseball and a poor decision.
Cowser should have slid over to CF with Hays getting the start in LF for today's game.
Man is the bottom of the lineup ugly today. Hopefully I can put a Roy Firestone reverse-jinx on it.
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1 minute ago, Bemorewins said:
I’m not questioning the talent/abilities of Cowser or Mullins. But the results are simply not there right now.
It’s hard to succeed as an offense when you have two guys who are auto outs and another guy named Jorge Mateo. That’s an awful lot of water for the other 6 hitters to carry.
The solution is to phase out Mullins and Mateo. But as I added in my post, Cowser is someone who needs to stay in the lineup because the metrics show someone who will come out of his slump. There's very little to suggest, however, that Mullins will return to his 2021 form or that Mateo is anything else but the terrible hitter he's always been.
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4 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:
It’s not like Cowser is hitting either. They both look like auto outs to me right now.
From NBC Sports on Cowser (screenshot attached, not sure if it will display).
Cowser needs to continue to get playing time and be afforded the same opportunity to struggle consistently over a long stretch of games (now half a season pretty much) that Cedric Mullins has been given.
The attached screenshot is a snippet from an article on Baseball Savant metrics for fastest bat swings combined with quickest bat paths. Cowser is one of the MLB leaders in the category, right behind guys like Juan Soto, Gunnar, Bobby Witt, Elly De La Cruz, Fernando Tatis Jr., Pete Alonso, and others.
Cowser has the swing of a stud. Mullins and Hays do not.
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3 minutes ago, interloper said:
I have no problem with Mateo playing right now. He saved Burnes a lot of runs with a couple of excellent double plays last night. The #9 hitter is not the issue.
You say "right now" as if his production at the plate will continue. It won't, it's only going to get worse. And it's not good to begin with.
There's no reason to believe in Mateo aside from small sample size luck. He's just being given preferential treatment because he's a vet, and, similarly to Ryan McKenna, Elias refuses to cut ties with a bad player. That's not good baseball.
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22 minutes ago, eddie83 said:
Mateo has a .931 OPS vs LHP. Last year it was .746. He can play SS and even some OF. More than fine for a platoon tyoe player.
Mayo is does not have a good glove at 3rd. I like Urias but he hasn’t been hitting.
Again, as I mentioned in my post that you're replying to, the OPS is a mirage propped up by 2 home runs. Mateo won't keep that up, even against lefties.
If Mateo settles at .700-.750 OPS against LHP for the season, which is a reasonable projection, he'll be OPSing below that range the rest of the season. That's NOT worth his glove at 2B.
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31 minutes ago, Mooreisbetter27 said:
If hitting is what you're concerned of, the bolded makes no sense. Mateo is light speed faster than Urias, has been hitting better (Urias has been a black hole) and has been playing better defense. Urias over Mateo makes zero sense.
Urias has a proven track record of good defense at 3B and as a much better hitter than Mateo. That's why it's better for the team to play Urias instead of buying into the mirage of another "hot" start by Mateo. Mateo is still the same bad player he's always been.
Ultimately, I prefer calling up Mayo after Super 2 passes. Until then, I'd rather see Urias in the lineup. Everyone is getting fooled into thinking Mateo has played well. He hasn't, he's just been lucky running into a couple home runs. That's not sustainable, and it's foolish to believe that Mateo is anything else other than the player he's shown himself to be since 2022.
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I have very very low expectations for Suarez today...
in Orioles Talk
Posted
Another incredible Firestone Reverse Jinx! Thanks, Roy!