Brooks The Great
-
Posts
1174 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
1
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Events
Posts posted by Brooks The Great
-
-
4 hours ago, Bird Lady said:
The never ending obsession with Ryan Mckenna
Seriously. What's the point of giving DH at bats to a career 4th/5th OF with no options remaining? I get it, spring training doesn't matter. But why not get a couple extra looks at the several prospects that fit in the team's long-term plans?
-
1
-
-
15 hours ago, btdart20 said:
I'm on the same page. Platooning is great if you're poor, like the Rays. They pull it off well because of their analytics, development, and some minor league depth. But they do it because they are a small market, low budget team.
Players get platooned because they obviously have more pronounced flaws from one side of the plate. But the goal of any team should be to have as many star players at as many positions as possible in order to win a World Series. Star players - or any valuable player - aren't going to get platooned. The Braves and Dodgers are examples of having star players at almost every position, and the Orioles have the talent to be on the Braves/Dodgers side of the platooning spectrum this season. On the opposite side of the Rays.
Hyde and Elias really irked me last season because they loved platooning mediocre vets like Frazier, Mateo, Hicks, and O'Hearn (yes, Hicks and O'Hearn produced for stretches, but I believe those were merely lucky/hot small sample sizes) when they had several talented prospects at their disposal who not only may have outproduced those vets in the short-term, but could have also gained some valuable experience to establish themselves as non-platooning stars/valuable players in the medium-to-long-term.
I'm sure someone will point out that the team won 101 games last season as a reason for why Hyde and Elias platooning was successful. But to me, maximizing your talent is always the most efficient approach to winning games, and Hyde and Elias didn't do that as well as they could have last season (and in 2022 as well, when Jordan Westburg could have helped the Orioles make more of a push to the playoffs by replacing Rougned Odor).
-
1
-
-
36 minutes ago, Frobby said:
All by himself, Jeter was -14 in 1996, -11 in 1999, and -23 in 2000. So that 2000 team actually was +1 other than Jeter.
Such a joke that Jeter won so many Gold Gloves. He's a good example of why that award is actually mostly an award for offense in disguise.
-
1
-
-
2 hours ago, Jagwar said:
If Urias and Mateo are still on the roster on opening day, I can't see how Mayo or Holliday make the team out of spring training.
Considering how Elias stuck until the bitter end with scrubs like Odor, Frazier, and Voth, it's a lock that Urias and Mateo will be on the OD roster. I don't like Mateo as a player at all and would have released him last season to give Westburg and Ortiz more playing time, but, unlike Frazier and Odor, I can understand the value that Elias sees in Mateo's speed and defensive versatility. And Urias has actual value to any team. The only way Urias and Mateo aren't on the Opening Day roster is if one of them is traded (no one will want Mateo except perhaps as a throw-in, so it would likely be Urias getting traded) or one of them gets hurt.
-
1
-
-
18 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:
He could, but I'm not a fan of that. I'd rather see him get used to pitching every 2 to 3 days or even back to back to learn that recovery skill.
I just don't think Elias will decide to convert him to a reliever to that degree if he's pitching decently as a starter. Nor should he. I think Elias and the organization need to see if Johnson can fulfill his upside projection as a rotation arm, and this season will be critical to evaluating that.
If Johnson has trouble consistently going deep into games or he gets hit much harder the second/third time though a lineup, that's a different story. But I think Johnson will get a couple months worth of starts in the minors to see whether that's the case.
-
2 hours ago, Tony-OH said:
I'll be honest, I'm very interested in seeing how Johnson is used this spring and this season.
With current bullpen needs I can see the Orioles being tempted to convert him and take a look. He's not going to open the season with the Orioles, but I could see a path for him to pitch some innings out of the pen in the second half in Baltimore if he's converted to a reliever.He could also start during his time in the minors, but get called up to the O's to pitch out of the pen in the second half. Not sure if that's what you meant by converting him to a reliever, but it would be a good way to leverage his skill set for this season while also keeping his innings down coming off of TJS.
Then he could be treated as a starter for next season (if he pitches well as a starter in the minors this season).
-
1
-
-
10 hours ago, sevastras said:
Gunnar has MVP caliber talent. I’m sure he won’t be looked over.
I think Gunnar's gold glove caliber-defense is what will make it tough for any other Oriole to be more valuable than him over the next few years. And yes, his combination of offense and defense will put him in the AL MVP discussion if he stays healthy.
-
On 2/11/2024 at 9:34 AM, BRobinsonfan said:
This is one of those posts that just didn't age well.
Not surprising, considering that post was coming from one of the board's biggest trolls. He's the king of horrible one-sentence takes. His ratio of incorrect and inflammatory opinions per typed words in posts is atronomical.
-
31 minutes ago, Yardball85 said:
I met Tim after he gave a talk at his alma mater University of Maryland. Don't know anyone with a bad thing to say about him.
He's just great.
I love Tim. I met him at Dempsey's (now called Superbook) after the Orioles lost Game 1 of the 2014 ALCS to the Royals. I mentioned that I was doing some sports writing at the time, and asked him if he would be willing to do an interview with me about the Orioles during the offseason. He graciously agreed and gave me his contact info. The transcribed interview was published by Tony here on Orioles Hangout, although the article may no longer be up. Tim Kirkjian is pure class.
-
1
-
-
1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:
Nope, he still went to Duke. That’s how this works. There’s only been one exception… Lefty.
Someone probably already mentioned it, and surely some of the news articles have, but Rubenstein went to Duke undergrad also. So the incoming future majority owner of the O's and one of the future minority owners are Duke guys.
-
6 hours ago, NCRaven said:
If the Rays can be better by staying healthy, the Orioles can be better since their young players have another year of experience.
Plus more full time at bats and more at bats in general from your young players who showed offensive impact in the minors.
Westburg alone playing every day and not losing at bats to Adam Frazier, who was a complete black hole at the plate the final 2+ months of the season (0 home runs and garbage OPS+), will improve both the offense and the defense. Cowser and Kjerstad will provide superior depth in case Santander or Hays get hurt, and I like Kjerstad's chances to provide similar or better production to what O'Hearn provided in O'Hearn's DH/1B platoon at bats last season.
Then there are Jackson Holliday and Coby Mayo, who should both debut in 2024. And that's not considering Joey Ortiz, who quite possibly has a better bat than either Ramon Urias or Jorge Mateo (and is also likely the best defender of the three, especially since Mateo's defense regressed last season).
As long as Hyde doesn't give too many at bats to Mateo, Urias, or O'Hearn, the O's offense should easily be significantly better than it was in 2023. And the defense will be quite good, especially in the infield.
-
11 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:
Not saying I'd make the deal but this is a bizarre argument.
The goal is to win the World Series not collect guys that played here for six seasons of a HoF career.
Edit-In hindsight I would have traded Manny in 2014 for a ring and a TOR pitcher.
Trading one of the best young players in baseball for a pitcher that will generate less overall value just because the team needs a starting picher - when starting pitching can be acquired in other ways - is a bizarre argument.
Gunnar just produced a 6+ WAR season, and he has upside for more. Neither Kirby nor Strider have surpassed a 4 WAR season. Me saying that Gunnar has the best chance for a Hall of Fame career is a straightforward and concise way of expressing that he has not only been a considerably more valuable player than either Kirby or Strider, but that he will continue to be more valuable, and that the Orioles shouldn't trade him for a pitcher. And I have no doubt that they won't.
I can see why you're one of the most antagonistic and least liked posters on this board. You offer up terrible takes with a confrontational tone.
-
1
-
-
No chance. Gunnar has the best chance of the three for a Hall of Fame career.
-
1
-
-
6 hours ago, SoxFan3344 said:
Luzardo is not going to cost less than Cease. Garrett, might, but Marlins aren’t just gonna give away a pitcher with 5 years of control for scraps or Jorge Mateo’s/Anthony Santanders
Not sure why you group Mateo and Santander together. One is a legimitate middle of the order bat who plays every day, the other is a scrub who's going to be fighting to be on major league rosters the next few years.
-
26 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:
My point is stocking the minors with vets to improve our chances of winning at that level should be very low on his priority list. And fielding a competiive MLB team / roster should be very high on his priority list. Can he do both? Maybe, but he certainly hasn't demonstrated that yet.
Just because it's low on the priority list doesn't mean Elias shouldn't do it at all.
-
12 minutes ago, Otter said:
Yes, gotcha. But I'm thinking it goes beyond rare to wondering if the O's have ever done a trade like that?
The Orioles have never had a farm system as stacked as this one, and it's stacked with predominantly hitters. Previous history doesn't apply to this situation.
All it takes is to find another team with a need for MLB-ready position players that has more pitching in its farm system (or young controllable MLB SPs) by comparison. There are a few (Marlins, Guardians, Mariners come to mind), so I don't think it would be too difficult for Elias to find a trade partner if he wants to land an upper level pitching prospect or two.
-
11 minutes ago, RZNJ said:
Elias didn’t try to delay GRod’s service clock. Just saying.
He obviously got injured in 2022, so he was originally scheduled to debut late in the 2022 season, similarly to Gunnar.
Elias also games the chances for an extra draft pick for AL ROY award, which is another strategic angle at play with Holliday. Both Gunnar and Grayson were planned to be promoted late enough in 2022 so they could still maintain rookie eligibility for 2023. So that's one reason that G-Rod was placed on the OD roster in 2023. Not only was he ready to face MLB hitters, but he gave the team an extra chance for ROY draft pick compensation.
Jackson isn't ready to compete for AL ROY this season. His power just isn't there yet. But if he's promoted late enough in 2024... guess what, he's eligible for the 2025 ROY award, when he'll be more physically developed to tap into more game power. The draft pick consideration is another reason I'm confident Jackson won't be on the OD roster, and why he'll be treated similarly to how Gunnar was.
-
2
-
-
I think Tony is 100% correct on Holliday not having a chance to make the OD roster.
It would be completely out of line with Elias's MO for him to bring Holliday north with the team. Elias has blocked elite prospects such as Jordan Westburg and Joey Ortiz with total scrubs in Adam Frazier and Rougned Odor (along with Jorge Mateo and Ramon Urias getting playing time the past 2 seasons as well).
Now that Frazier is gone and Mateo has had his playing time appropriately scaled back, Westburg and Ortiz are finally going to get a chance to get playing time to show what they can do. If Elias was willing to keep Westburg and Ortiz in the minors or on the major league bench for Odor and Frazier, he'll definitely have no problem keeping Holliday down an extra few months now that he has young, talented middle infielders to plug in at 2B and a surplus of MIs overall (plus Mayo close at 3B or 1B).
When you consider that Elias would also be delaying starting Holliday's service time clock and giving him more reps at SS and 2B defensively by keeping him in the minors for a few months longer, it becomes an even more clear-cut decision.
It would take 2 or 3 injuries to middle infielders AND Jackson playing well in spring training for him to make the team for Opening Day.
-
3 hours ago, Tony-OH said:
Are you being serious Clark?
Do we really have bring up the demise rates of average 30-somethings with a slow player's game skills? O'Hearn skills wise is a left-handed hitting Trey Mancini with less bat.
Even if you aren't concerned over his turning 30, are you concerned that his .312/.361/.532/.893 slashline to start the year (155 PAs thru 7/14) was at least partially driven by an unsustainable .370 BABIP?
O'Hearn was a nice story, but he turned back into a little better version o the pumpkin he was before coming to the Orioles. He should have no role on this team. Santander can play 1B better than O'Hearn and Adley was pretty good in the minors.
Kjerstad belongs on this opening day roster and that will be tough to do if O'Hearn is taking up a roster spot. I'm hoping he can be traded for value but I get a feel he's going to end up DFA'd at some point or traded for a low level minor leaguer. Maybe the A's will give up somebody for him?
If there's one thing I criticize Elias for, it's his tendency to block his own prospects and stick with veterans for way too long. Odor, Frazier, Mateo. I think Elias got really lucky with Hicks staying hot for a couple months, and Hicks wound up blocking Cowser.
I really don't want O'Hearn blocking Kjerstad and Cowser. But I think it's going to happen early in the season.
-
43 minutes ago, oriole said:
I hope it’s Holliday at 2B, Westburg at 3B and Urias is off the roster. Otherwise, it’s highly likely to be Westburg at 2B and Urias at 3B.
Only way Urias is off the roster is if he's traded. Hopefully Elias can work a trade with the Marlins that sends off Urias or Mateo.
-
3 hours ago, Warehouse said:
Hard disagree on the Cowser to Markakis comp. Markakis struck out 13% of the time over his major league career. Cowser has struck out 26% of the time over his minor league career. If Cowser were to match Nick’s career .136 ISO, he’ll struggle to hit for more than a .730 OPS given the swing-and-miss in his game.
That being said, Cowser has shown some promising signs in the power department so I think he will have more pop than Nick. This season in AAA, his power metrics were as good or better than Kjerstad (especially if you normalize for Heston’s 5 triples and inside-the-park HR).
If you only want to look at K%, maybe the comp isn't accurate. But Cowser was one of the best pure OBP hitters his whole time in the minors. He has an exquisite ability to draw walks. So from a purely OBP standpoint, that makes the comp more accurate.
I think Cowser will wind up with a better major league career than Markakis - I'm a believer in Colton and I think his small sample MLB stint where he never played regularly makes most Orioles fans and posters on this board severely underrate him.
-
1 minute ago, now said:
I admit a subjective bias in favor of Norby over Westburg. Still, I don't see Westburg having more than a utility (ceiling Zobrist?) role when Holliday and Mayo arrive. In the meantime I imagine other teams share your perception of better value in Westburg, so he would bring us more back in trade.
That's fair, and I do think Westburg would bring back more in a trade, especially if he performs as well as I expect him to for the Orioles this upcoming season in more of a full time role now that Frazier is thankfully gone.
Realistically in a best case scenario for the Orioles and all of their current prospects and MLB players, both Norby and Westburg are going to be traded. I love Westburg. But I would trade him before Coby Mayo and Samuel Basallo, and I expect/hope for both of them to be regulars for the Orioles in 2025/2026.
-
On 12/29/2023 at 3:03 PM, Three Run Homer said:
Aside from needing trade bait to land a top starting pitcher, there is nothing forcing us to trade either one. There is room for both Cowser and Kjerstad in the team's lineup going forward. We should not hesitate to trade Mountcastle, Santander, and/or Hays for the right return, because Cowser, Kjerstad and Mayo are ready to take their at bats and produce.
Totally agree, and that right there is the answer to the Cowser vs. Kjerstad debate for me. Keep both.
The only thing that concerns me is that Elias has demonstrated both a reluctance to trade his top prospects, AND also has shown to overvalue mediocre veterans and block prospects with them (Odor, Frazier, Mateo). I'm already worried about guys like O'Hearn, Urias, Mateo and even Mountcastle and Hays taking AB's away from Cowser, Kjerstad, Ortiz and possibly Norby and Mayo. Not only could those prospects provide better immediate value than those veterans in certain scenarios, but those prospects losing playing time to vets could very possibly be detrimental to their development.
-
1
-
-
On 12/28/2023 at 11:43 AM, Spy Fox said:
It's a ceiling vs floor thing for me. I think Cowser's ceiling is higher but Kjerstad is the more likely to hit his floor as a quality MLB hitter.
Given our depth of position player prospects, I'm more drawn to the higher upside player. So I personally would rather keep Cowser and trade Kjerstad.
I actually think it's the opposite. I think Cowser will be the safer bet to hit his floor because he's such a good hitter, and a potentially solid defender in either corner outfield spot. Meanwhile, Kjerstad is the higher upside player. Cowser didn't hit well in the majors obviously, but he also wasn't given a chance to play every day. Kjerstad's risky profile as a defender lowers his floor, but Kjerstad's power is what makes him the higher ceiling player for me.
You used the Markakis comp for Cowser, which I think is accurate and a common comp used for Cowser. Markakis was also a high floor kind of player. He never hit for big power, but was a very good hitter with a great arm, and ultimately a valuable player his whole time with the Orioles.
Orioles 5-2 over Pirates (observations)
in Orioles Talk
Posted
Why do you think he won't be the high average, high OBP hitter the Orioles drafted? There's no statistical evidence to back up that conclusion - in fact, the evidence points to the opposite being true.
In 399 plate appearances in AAA last season - after Cowser's swing was "re-worked", as you pointed out - Cowser had a .417 OBP. And his OBP throughout the entirety of his minor league career has been excellent. Cowser has been the closest thing in the minors to Juan Soto-level OBP since Cowser was drafted. If you don't think he's going to be able to be the high OBP guy we drafted, I think that's because you're putting way to much stock in an extreme major league SSS last season where Cowser was never given an opportunity to play every day.
Cowser's BABIP of .175 in the small sample size of 77 at bats strongly suggests he was merely unlucky in 2023 at the MLB level, but regardless of whether Cowser was unlucky, struggled, or some combination of both, his 16.9% BB% was very good for a rookie's first stint in the majors with sporadic playing time.
I think Cowser will be the high average, high OBP the Orioles drafted. And it's going to be frustrating seeing Ryan O'Hearn take at bats that will come at the expense of Cowser early this season.