kidrock
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Posts posted by kidrock
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6 minutes ago, Frobby said:
Santander’s poor decisions have been quite apparent. His chase rate is up from 35.0% last year to 41.8% this year. He needs to get back to being more selective.
Frobby - do you see this as something he can significantly improve mid-season?
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As a pretty negative sports fan, perhaps I am just on a positive rebound after this current Ravens/Lamar debacle. I can't believe the org collectively blew 5 years of cheap Lamar.
Barring incredibly bad injury luck, I think 87-93 wins is realistic. While I am not thrilled with some of the moves, namely Frazier, I do think Elias added guys who can bounce back from last year, including Frazier. I also expect enhanced performance from many.
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8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:
Now, if Westburg/Ortiz get over 800 at bats and Stowers gets 500 at bats, so be it. That’s what matters.
Right now, those numbers seem pretty unlikely to me.
Agreed. I get if injuries disrupt, that's fine. But I don't want young talent riding the pine for this nonsense. I'm trying not to get frustrated, and just trust the front office. But it doesn't seems promising.
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6 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:
I saw Rougned Odor get 426 at bats last year.
I SAW ROUGNED ODOR GET 426 AT BATS LAST YEAR.
Four hundred annnndddd tweeeenty siiiiiiiiix at bats.
They will find a way to get bad players at bats because they have shown a propensity to do so.
This is so hard to get past. I know they want to win. But playing Odor defies logic. It comes off as they don't want to win. I don't get it. I don't know much about McCann or O'Hearn, but I get scared that they are going to get far more at bats than people suspect. Far more.
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11 hours ago, Tony-OH said:
That is really not a bad deal for a 30 year old pitcher.
Of course he comes into the AL East.
But hey, we sign a 31-year old 2B who OPS'd .612 last year for $8 million. Pretty much the same.
I dont post much, but try to read frequently. But your humor/sarcasm is killing me Tony. Much needed right now. I have a lot of respect for Elias and Sig and what they have done to help this club, but I can't understand the Frazier piece for the life of me. Please keep the humor coming.
On Rodon - really not a bad deal if you can get 4 decent to good seasons out of him.
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Would really hope we don't lose someone like Sig. But at this point, I really hope the organization has learned enough about the importance of analytics, that losing him wouldn't be completely detrimental. Our analytics dept should be ready to go on it's own I would hope. At least we have a model down pat that just needs tweaks.
From what I have heard from a friend in the org, Sig builds these elaborate models that tells you who is a good player and who isn't. Obviously placing certain amounts of value on metrics like spin rate and barrel % etc, over other stats. But while that is supremely important, the model was actually wild about Brett Phillips from what my buddy told me. So it works some times and not others.
I think Sig helps a ton when it comes to prospect drafting as it allows them to run the model on hundreds of players and really narrow down who they value.
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21 hours ago, ShoelesJoe said:
This will be Abreu’s last payday. I doubt very much he’ll leave money on the table to maybe play for a winner. He’ll sign with whoever guarantees the most money.
The guy has made 118.8m. I think at that point, you choose the situation you think best fits you. I don't think dollars and cents matter as much here. Would be different if it was someone like Ryan Flaherty leaving the Orioles at age 30, only having earned 5.7m.
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15 minutes ago, MarCakes21 said:
I guess I'm a little surprised by the attention here. Not that I don't think backup catcher is important, but in reality, this player is starting ~40 games. So your goals ought to be 1. Good clubhouse presence and leader 2. Good defensively. There's really no need to spend over league minimum for those traits, and I'd be happy bringing back Chirinos for another year to give Adley a breather. Prioritize money elsewhere.
In reality, the Astros just won the world series starting Maldanado over Vasquez, and he was pretty much Chirinos with the bat.
I guess I view it like this, perhaps ignorantly:
1. I don't want Adley run into the ground. Having a decent backup should help keep him fresh for the next 5 years in which I am hoping the O's are regulars in the playoffs.
2. The season is a marathon and every win counts. I don't recall offhand, but I believe the team had an awful record when Adley wasn't starting. If this player can just help tip the scales in a few of the games, it could make a serious impact.
3. This team has a bunch of average or around average regulars, with Adley and Gunnar being on the high side (128, 123 OPS+ respectively). While I have absolutely no proof of this, I don't think the O's have enough plus offensive players to outweigh 1-2 black holes in the lineup. Every time a non Adley players was catching, it forced an awful player into the game (Chirinos 58, Bemboom 20 OPS+). Couple that with Mateo and Odor (which hopefully we never see that again), the offense would just stuck too easily.
Again, I'm not saying that I have proof, but moreso baseless theories.
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41 minutes ago, btdart20 said:
There's a thread somewhere that said Mountcastle lost 5-7 HR in OPACY this year (I forget which it was). That would put his OPS in the .770-.800 range (assuming those 5-7 HR weren't singles/doubles).
Very cool, thanks
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39 minutes ago, NCRaven said:
If you believe in Statcast, Mountcastle has some of the best below the surface numbers on the Orioles.
Avg Exit Velocity - 88, Max Exit Velocity - 81, HardHit% - 82, xwOBA - 93, xBA - 91, xSLG- 96, and Barrel % - 94 are all outstanding. As Sports Guy points out, these percentiles indicates that Ryan likely hit into a lot of "bad luck" in 2022. Admitedly, he strikes out a bit more than you would like and walks a bit less. I think GM's that look at stats beyond the standard BA and the like would see a lot to like in Ryan Mountcastle.
Full disclosure, I am a big fan of Mountcastle.
Very interesting that his stat cast data is very positive. Hopefully his luck turns around next year. Thanks for the stats.
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6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:
I am fine with him while he is cheap. Talk to me when he’s not cheap anymore.
If they moved on from him, I would be ok with it. If you told Me you were penciling him in over there for the next few years, I would be ok with that too.
I would trade him now but I assume you are getting 60-70 cents on the dollar for him and I don’t see the sense in doing that.
Fair point. At 700k, he's fine. Not sure anyone feels that way at 5m or 10m.
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6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:
He had a lot of bad Iick last year. In any given year, a player can just have a bad season, an unlucky season or a combo of the 2.
Im not the biggest RM fan but I do tend to believe he was more unlucky than bad last year.
The new wall definitely hurt him but he had some very good stat cast numbers.
I still believe, in most seasons, he’s a 780-820 OPS type of guy.
SG - is it fair to say you are in between content and happy with RM at first? Perhaps my opinion on him is just too negative. I was able to watch alot of games during his rough stretch which seems to have soured me a bit.
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Question for the O's faithful here who know far more than I do. Apologies if there are better stats to use:
In RM's first season, limited sample size of 140 PAs, he puts up an OPS of .878.
In his second season, 586 PAs, he puts up an OPS of .796.
In his third season, 609 PAs, he puts up an OPS of .729.
The big change that happened during these years was the wall in left which impacts him more than others I would assume. My questions are
1. Could anyone estimate the amount of OPS the wall cost him.
2. I have a hard time believing that it cost him the full delta between his .796 -> .729. Is it possible that, despite the wall, RM is continually declining as he gets more PAs?
3. Based on his age, experience, tools and profile, do you project improvement, continual decline, or more of a plateau between .720-.740?
4. Does a first baseman who OPSs sub .750 have much value in the game today? It's hard for me to, with my limited league wide knowledge to understand if the league has just declined offensively or if RM is slightly below average player. I am assuming that he does not provide plus defense or base running.
Thanks
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1 hour ago, Jim'sKid26 said:
Is everyone convinced that Mateo is what he is offensively after 770 MLB ABs?
Not particularly convinced that he will improve or not improve. If I had to ignorantly guess, I would say that he doesn't show all that much improvement in his current form in terms of hitting.
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On 10/7/2022 at 1:51 PM, RZNJ said:
Can we start a separate thread for "Moves that completely befuddle us"?
Adding Bemboom to the 40 man makes no sense. I agree but it's not really bothering me.
The move to bring up Hall for that start against the Rays.
Brett Phillips says hi
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5 hours ago, emmett16 said:
https://www.si.com/mlb/2022/08/29/orioles-magic-secret-recipe
This kind of sums it up. They have given up less walks & less home runs. When they give up HRs there are fewer people on base. When they don’t give up HRs the speed in the outfield and D up the middle catches the ball. That plus a strong bullpen, the emergence of the Mountain as an unhittable closer, and Adley being Superman .
great post.
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6 hours ago, Aristotelian said:
A reliable top of the rotation starter would be my focus in the offseason. Maybe a veteran bullpen arm. I think that's it. If anything we might trade off some of the position players to make room for Stowers/Gunnar/Westburg to play full time along with Vavra, plus eventually Cowser and some combination of Ortiz/Norby/Mayo.
Fair point. Would be really helpful to find that.
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1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:
Pitching has gone 1.1 WAR to 16.2 WAR, so plus 15. Biggest contributors have been bullpen (Bautista 2.9, Perez 2.3, Lopez 2.0, Tate 1.4) but the rotation has been much improved too (Kremer 2.0, Wells 1.7, Voth 1.6).
Position players went from 7.6 to 18.0, or plus 10.4. Mullins and Hays have regressed slightly. Biggest improvements have been Mateo 2.9, Urias 2.7, Santander 2.0, plus of course Adley 3.8.
With another month to go we might expect to improve a couple more wins. That would still put us at about 80 and we are on pace for 85+. So either we underperformed our WAR last year or we are overperforming this year, maybe both.
The 2019 team put up 11.9 WAR by position players and 4.6 WAR by pitchers, so WAR seems to think last year's team may have actually outperformed their WAR despite only 52 wins!
Definitely seems like there are a bunch of non-stars contributing heavily. The ones you named are great examples: Mateo, Urias, Santander, Voth, Bautista, Kremer. The O's just seem like a collection of average to above average players with Adley being a clear MVP level (top 20) player.
It really makes you ask the question: how to do you add to this team to make it better, especially considering the fact that there are a few really solid prospects that are .5-2 years away AND the fact that pitching is so unreliable.
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2 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:
In 2021 DRS had the Orioles as a -30 defensive team. This year it's +34 so far. I think DRS may overstate defensive impact compared to OAA, but I think we safe in saying 3-6 wins of the improvement are due to better defense.
Despite the dimension changes to OPACY they're 8th in runs scored this year, were 14th last year. On pace to score about 30 more runs despite runs being down across the league by about a quarter run per game.
But by far the biggest difference is that they're on pace to allow almost 300 fewer runs. Which has to be approaching a record. I don't know a good way of systematically searching for year-to-year improvements but that's almost two full runs a game. Last year the Orioles had the 9th-worst ERA since 1900. Truly historically bad. This year they have the 18th-worst (or 13th-best) ERA in MLB. The only two post-WWII teams worse that the '21 Orioles were a pre-humidor Rockies team and the '96 Tigers. This year they're above average, at least before adjusting for context. Yea, some part of this (say, 30 runs) is due to league runs being down probably due to the increased use of the humidor.
Very helpful. Great analysis.
Seems like even in many of the games they lose this year, they are fairly close games. You have to go back to the Jays or Rays series to find a game that they were truly out of by the 7th or 8th inning.
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10 hours ago, Aristotelian said:
Pitching has gone from league worst to above average despite losing our top starter and not getting our top pitching prospect. The bullpen has been outstanding despite converting our 2021 closer into a starter and then trading our All Star closer for prospects. It really makes zero sense. I think Adley has helped. Maybe something Holt is doing but that is really hard to judge.
I actually think the offense has been pretty meh but the plus defense has helped the pitching.
Who cares? Let's enjoy it.
I am certainly enjoying it. Just interested to figure out why.
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13 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:
But it's been odd that the effect of the wall hasn't been equal. Is that sustainable?
Yes I know Elias has been accumulating left handed power to take advantage, it's still a thing.
Do you think that part of the reason is that they have the right defender in Left? Hays seems to have good, though not elite range to go along with a pretty good arm. Seems to me that's what you really want with the new left field dimensions.
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13 hours ago, Bahama O's Fan said:
Oh, and the wall
It really does feel like a big uptick in defense plus the wall has gotten the team out of jams/innings much faster. Thus, preventing the gassing of the bullpen. All it takes is one out to prevent an awful inning/game.
Having Hays with his above average speed and strong arm in left fits pretty well.
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Hey O's faithful, I have been a fan of the O's since 1999. Though, I am not nearly as knowledgeable as some of the cats on here. Can someone please explain in laymans terms, what the heck happened to the team? Why have they, as a team, exceeded expectations so much. Is it really bullpen and defense? When I look through the stats, they just don't seem like they should be over 500. Is the team's defense really that good? Is the bullpen that good? Are some of these starters better than the general public thought? Is Adley really a 5-10 game improvement from one person? Is Elias' player development finally starting to work? Thanks
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Luke Scott had a career .821 OPS. That's really good. Seems like overall health issues really killed him. He played more than 131 games just once (148).
Runner on 3B, less than 2 out, who do you want to see up?
in Orioles Talk
Posted
I have no clue if the data backs this up, but I really think Urias has a sound approach.
However, I think the answer to this question has to be Adley as he is just so much better than everyone else.