Jim'sKid26

I like the analysis here. So 115 starts at C and 35-40 at DH? If you catch him that much does he play 1B at all? I think not. I honestly don't recall either PB. Can you provide any context?

Please pass the Orange Kool-aid.

Big questions to answer here. 1) How many innings do GRod and DL give you in 2023? 2) Who can repeat (or better) their 2022 performance in 2023 from the Bradish, Kremer, Voth contingent? 3) Who of the available FA SP is interested in coming to B'more. 4) Will the ownership signoff on a ToR SP deal? I think after you answer those questions you can decide whether to keep Lyles. He is what he is. He's unlikely to pitch better and he's very likely to regress. It's hard to see a scenario where he is worth the option salary for 2023.

Beyond the obvious issue of the effect not really being measurable in it's purest sense. I personally think the shift ban is mostly propaganda and fits in the "don't just stand there....do something," category.

I am fascinated to see if this is true. I don't think it will have much effect. Only time will tell. However, I think you might be giving MLB leadership a bit too much credit (in the bolded part).

There is actually very little data to support this position. “Nothing really changed,” Kevin Randel, manager of the Marlins’ Double-A affiliate at Pensacola, said last fall. “I didn’t see any advantages or disadvantages to it at all. In the end it all kind of evened out … You steal some outs and you give up some cheap hits. I think it was pretty much all the same.” One consideration to take into account is that shifts are less common in the minors than they are in the majors, so banning the shift could have a greater effect in the majors than it did in the minors. Still, it is notable that the other rules changes MLB implemented—namely the pitch clock and larger bases—made measurable differences during testing in the minor leagues. Banning the shift, so far, has not. Banning Shifts Had Almost No Effect On Batted Ball Outcomes in the Minors (baseballamerica.com)

Perhaps the organization has matured from, "if you are a hammer everything's a nail," to "it's nice to have a number of tools hanging off my tool belt."

Just want to go record as saying that this type of content is found on no other message board of which I am aware. This is pure gold. Thank you, FRobby.

Right, I saw that too but there is little to allow a comparison to his minor league stats. For example is he swinging at strikes in the strike zone and missing them? Is he getting beat up in the strike zone with premium velocity? Does he have a pronounced upper cut swing that can be tweaked? Also, we are focusing on offense. Is he a good defender? If he can play and contribute in CF that would allow for a little less offensive prowess.

So the breaking ball is not a strength. Do the O's have the wherewithal to fix his cutter or slider so that he has an effective third pitch? Seems like a thing that the pitching gurus have done before. 101 mph with and effective splitter and third pitch to keep guys off the FB could be worth a 4/$80M investment. I'm not sure he's worth that contract with just 2 MLB caliber pitches, however. The other issue is workload. 124 innings is not a ton and he is not build like a prototypical starter.

So the big question is why does he strike out so much in MLB? I am suspicious its an inability to handle breaking pitches as opposed to lack of bat speed or inability to handle velocity. But I just don't know. The advanced metrics about swing decisions are not available, at least I can't find them, on his minor league experience. Maybe someone who has seen him play a lot can enlighten us.

This speaks volumes. He might be done. His fall from grace is one of the most precipitous in recent memory.

Why would he choose to come to Baltimore? In essence, why would an elite Japanese pitcher choose to come to Baltimore? 1) A chance to win. This is likely. 2) A contract that ensures his financial security. This remains to be seen. 3) A team experience that allows him to feel comfortable culturally. Baltimore has a checkered past in this regard. 4) A chance to pitch in a manner consistent with his previous success. In other words, he stays as a starting pitcher. He slots as a 2-3 on the current roster. If the O's can provide him with all of those aspects, he and his agents will consider their offer. Otherwise, he plays for another team.

I find this line of thought remarkably short sighted. At some point the O's will not be selecting in the first 5-10 positions in the draft and will need to be as creative as possible with their endeavors at talent acquisition. Kelenic is an intriguing player who was drafted at #6 overall for a reason. He has talent. Now can the O's, or any other team, find the key that unlocks his talent? This is, of course, the bottom line of this issue. However, good teams should be on the look out for talent wherever and whenever it presents itself. Not trading with Seattle because they are in direct competition with them for a playoff spot is just nonsensical. Of course your trade with them. If they have available talent you need to make your club better, of course you trade with them. In fact, you trade with any team who has available talent that makes your club better.

So this guy has an interesting development curve. In 2019, age 19, he plays 50 games at low A ball. Then 46 games at A+ ball and at both stops he hits very well. Then the move him at the end of the year to AA for 19 games and he does OK. Then COVID takes away 2020 for him. I don't know what the Mariners did for their prospects during COVID but whatever happened he did not benefit from the break. In 2021, age 21, he plays 30 games at in the Pacific Coast League (AAA) and posts a .320/.392/.624 with 9 HRs and he is promoted to MLB and struggles. In 93 games he posts .181/.265/.350 with 14 HRs. Iso was .169. In 2022, age 22, he is back at AAA for 86 games and does well again, .295/.365/.557 with 18 HRs. Then back at MLB level for 54 games in a pennant race and stinks it up again, .121/.241/.313 with 7 HRs. Now the PCL is a notoriously good hitters league compared to the International league. Are the PCL numbers making him look better than he actually is? His 2 trips to the PCL he had BABIP of .323 and .339. I think it will take a bit more data to explain his MLB difficulties. He's a bit of an enigma.

I appreciate that position and agree that our young OF should not be blocked. I'm thinking about his bat as part of a platoon with Mountcastle at 1B primarily. Also as a late innings defensive replacement in the OF.

MLB rumors has his likely ARB3 number at $18.1M for 2023. It is widely rumored that the Dodgers won't tender him a contract and he will be a free agent. His 2022 numbers are not encouraging. However, he is coming into his age 28 and he is a former RoY and NL MVP. Would he benefit from a change of scenery? Can the O's analytics shop figure out what might work for him moving forward at the plate? Would he be a valuable 1B/DH/OF for the O's at a reasonable price point? Thoughts? Cubs should keep close eye on non-tender candidate Cody Bellinger (cubbiescrib.com)

To me he really seems like a very good 4th OF on a playoff team. He's got speed, defensive chops and a great arm. He can play CF in a pinch. If he gets 250-300 ABs and is reasonably productive when he plays great. I just don't see an everyday corner OF when I look at Hays. But I think he can be very effective in a part-time role. He might stay healthy as well.

A bold statement without supportive assessment and analysis. Care to elaborate?

So the Twins need a SS. How about Mateo to Minnesota for Sonny Gray and a mid level prospect. Like Simeon Woods Richardson. O's pick up Gray's $12.7M club option.

Your criticism of the comparison is fair. I was looking for an elite defender whose age 27 season was followed by a significantly improved age 28 season. I agree the players are very different and I don't think Mateo will ever have the power that Hardy had. But then Hardy doesn't have the speed Mateo has. My point is 28 is typically when players begin to peak. Milwaukee made a mistake trading Hardy prior to his age 28 season. I'm not certain that we have seen the best of Jorge Mateo. But you can also make the case that his trade value may never again be this high.

JJ Hardy age 27 season in Milwaukee (2010): 101 games, .268/.320/.394 with 6 HRs and 44 RBI Age 28 season after trade to Baltimore, (2011): .269/.310/.491 with 30 HRs and 76 RBI. It's been done before...

Is everyone convinced that Mateo is what he is offensively after 770 MLB ABs?

He made $10.3M last year on a 1 yr deal. Fangraphs has him worth $4.7M in 2022. So I think you could get him for less than you are going to pay Santander in arbitration.

It seems to me there are plenty of LH OFs in the system. There is no 1B. I think Gallo could play 1B. But Rizzo is a real 1B with multiple pieces of precious metal...