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dzorange

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Posts posted by dzorange

  1. 12 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

    I think we need to take these reports with a grain of salt.  Elias doesn’t let things leak out.  Could be a smoke screen for something else or, just bad info.

    It’s not real info. They are accounts that make stuff up to get followers. Even the video on Bassitt was intentionally misquoted in the tweet he shared. I wish this guy would stop posting these.

  2. 14 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

    To me he has very little value with a .305 OBP. That was a big problem this year with the majority of our team and the run differential 

    I think there is some optimism for Mountcastle in that department next year. His BB% increased from 5.1% in the first half of 2022 to 9.4% in the second half. He's a .261 career hitter and he only hit .221 in the second half last year. 

    He's never going to be an on-base machine but I would not be surprised if he makes strides next season at the plate.

    Mountcastle has a career 7.1 BB%, which is not good, but it's not downright terrible and is much better than someone like Austin Hays.

  3. 8 minutes ago, dtk9119 said:

    Sorry if this has been addressed but I am just now looking at the lineup... why in the **** is Rutchman not in the lineup tonight? Especially when Mullins is also sitting? Are we in a playoff race or not? This series needs to be SWEPT.. anything else is a disappointment. No time for rest boys..

    Facing a lefty tonight. Adley has struggled mightily against lefties at this year and has been struggling of late as well. Orioles also have 7 games in the next 6 days. They're going to have to rest him at some point.

  4. I don't understand the Aguilar hate. He's on the team to provide an extra bat. This is obviously a "B" lineup tonight. Adley and Mullins are out, Aguilar provides some power to replace those two and spells Mountcastle at first base. No one is really hitting great right now.

    I know Aguilar is struggling this year, but if this was Mancini in this spot no one would be complaining. Both have fairly similar career numbers.

    The O's also could have benched McKenna or Mountcastle for Stowers, but they didn't. He did get Odor out of the lineup tonight.

    • Upvote 2
  5. 31 minutes ago, deward said:

    Why would you not be surprised to see Aguilar in there over Stowers vs a RHP? Stowers is at least as likely as Aguilar is to add punch to the lineup.

    Because Stowers offers more value at Camden. It's also clear that Stowers is not going to be an every day player for the rest of this season.

    I also think it's a stretch to say that Stowers, who has 1 HR in 34 PAs in his career is at least as likely to add punch as Aguilar, who has 108 HRs in 2500 career PAs.

    I'd rather have Stowers out there, mostly because it takes Santander off the field defensively and I want to see what he can do, but there's a reason the O's signed Aguilar and he's going to get ABs.

    • Upvote 1
  6. 14 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

    Mateo and Hays to the bench. Odor still in the lineup. Don't love the lineup but we have an interesting mix of R/L hitters to bring off the bench whenever needed. Kinda surprised to see Aguilar in there.

    I wouldn't be surprised to see Aguilar get a lot of ABs on the road. O's need some punch in their lineup, it's probably not worth trotting him out there at Camden too often.

    I expect Stowers to get back in the lineup more regularly on this homestand. I'm not surprised that he's not out there tonight, but I am surprised that Vavra is.

    • Upvote 1
  7. I don't see them giving less playing time to Henderson or Urias. Seems like everyone's just going to be on a rotation. Udor's defense has picked up, but as much as I'd like to bench him, I'd also like to get Santander out of the field. Not sure what their plan with Stowers is. Odd lineup tonight.

  8. Hall can get a strikeout at any time. Situationally, he can be an asset on the MLB roster. Especially in extra innings where you start with a guy on second. Right now, Bautista is that guy that can get us out of those jams,  but he can’t do it every time. He’s also starting to throw multiple innings to close out a game. I wouldn’t trust Hall for more than a batter or two, but he’d be one of their best options situationally. Plus, he’s a lefty.

  9. Imagine if the Orioles spent money this past offseason and we weren’t able to see the development of guys like Hays, Santander, Mateo, Urias, McKenna, Bautista, Lopez, Perez, Kremer, etc.

    Odor, the one position player they did sign, people are clamoring to he benched or DFA’d.

    The plan wasn’t for the O’s to be competitive this season and probably even next season. Instead, they’ve made good decisions and they’ve also had the ability to throw guys like Kremer and Bradish out there to see what they’ve got.

    I’d love for the O’s to spend money this offseason, but only if it’s in a way that helps us for the 2024 and 2025 seasons. We can’t jeopardize future years to try to win now, when we still aren’t fully set up to win now.

     

  10. 26 minutes ago, casadeozo said:

    Who is a ML comp for Stowers?

    My crude guess last year was a Ryan Braun type but maybe thats way too generous?

    Braun won an MVP and has a career WAR over 40. Way too generous. Stowers isn't a top 100 prospect.

    I might get flack for this, but I could see him having similar type of offensive numbers as Steve Pearce when he was in Baltimore. That's a fairly small sample size, but Pearce slashed .255/.337/.473 in 999 plate appearances with Baltimore. I think Stowers can put up those type of numbers.

  11. I don't think Vavra was ever going to be anything other than a super utility type. Him being a lefty off the bench who can play infield and outfield would be very valuable. At worst, he takes Tyler Nevin's spot and is better offensively and likely better defensively. He and McKenna off the bench could be a luxury.

  12. 41 minutes ago, Satyr3206 said:

    I agree about Gunnar. Grayson is rehabbing so that won't work. Westburg would cause a logjam at his position. Might be time to trade some prospects for a proven rotation guy.

    I don't think I'd sell off any of our prospects. There are guys at the MLB level like Santander, Mountcastle and Hays that I'd rather trade and open up the positions for prospects. Baltimore is likely targeting 2024 or 2025 as the year to go all in, anyways.

    If Rodriguez has success at the MLB level, I'm absolutely cool with going into next year with a rotation of Wells, Lyles (exercising his option), Rodriguez, Kramer, and trying to sign a veteran like Joe Musgrove or someone else. Still have Bradish, Hall, Means (later in the year) and others to throw in when needed. I think it's too soon to make many major moves with the rotation. 2023 isn't the year to do it, unless the O's are just tearing it up by the trade deadline.

  13. 16 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

    Not if you listen to twitterverse.  It’s astonishing how much crap he gets for every single little move and how people think he should be fired.

    I don't know how anyone can really analyze Hyde's performance that deep. He's in the playoff hunt with a decent roster, but a roster that is not set up to be in the playoff hunt. Trading away two key pieces at the deadline, still rostering guys like Odor, Nevin and Chirinos, blindly throwing darts at a dartboard with the rotation hoping they stick.

    Hyde gets a thumbs up grade for his job with the clubhouse. Everything other grade is TBD.

  14. 16 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

    Honestly, I think we’re in a position where we have to win to get Gunnar up here. Even a 3-3 road trip probably costs us ground in the WC. We’re going to have to play out of our minds these next 6 to get Gunnar up here. Maybe if we take the 1st game in Houston tonight. 
     

    What do the analytics say about being 2.5GB with 38 remaining?  Given the schedules. Probably not good and not good enough for Elias to give up a year of control. A 4-2, 5-1 road trip could change that. 

    There's no real reason to wait to call him up in terms of losing service time. Fangraphs has the Orioles projected at 80.6 wins and a 4.5% chance of making the playoffs.

    I'd say the timing/PR is pretty good right now to call him up with Stowers hitting that HR last night. But they could wait until after the weekend.

  15. 11 minutes ago, Brooks The Great said:

    Gunnar wouldn't be eligible for the postseason roster if he's added in September. 

    Also, it actually helps Gunnar financially to preserve his rookie status for 2023 if he finishes top 3 in the AL ROY voting and is on the Opening Day roster next year.

    While I think it's very unlikely for the O's to make the playoffs, I think it would be a lukewarm message to the fans if somehow the O's make the playoffs and Henderson is not available for the postseason roster. Especially if he lights it up immediately. With the Orioles selling at the deadline, they're showing a willingness to use their prospects as ammunition. If they're going to call up Gunnar, it doesn't make sense to not do it this week for a number of reasons.

  16. 2 hours ago, clapdiddy said:

    Agreed.  I think Henderson should be at third and let Urias/Odor platoon at second.  I would actually rather see a Urias/Vavra platoon at second, but I think Hyde likes Odor out there.  

    I think if Odor is going to the bench, the only way that happens is if Henderson takes his spot. It's easier to pitch to Odor and the team that the #1 prospect in baseball is supplanting Odor.

    If Henderson takes over at third, it's going to be tough to sell Urias and Vavra getting playing time over Odor if he's as much of a clubhouse guy as he's portrayed to be. Regardless, Odor will get plenty of playing time in a bench role with a jam packed schedule the rest of the year and by limiting Henderson's ABs from time to time.

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