Alasdaire

Does that mean closers don't matter because they're inherently fungible, or is it that closers don't matter if the rest of your team is so good that it lessens the importance of the closer? If it's the latter, I don't think the rest of the 2023 Orioles are at that level as evidenced by almost every team statistic being mediocre.

That's fair. We do have more options at closer. But if any one of them fails where Felix wouldn't have, the consequences are catastrophic.

Is it not plausible that going from Felix to not Felix is the difference in swinging one game in the ninth inning in the playoffs? Is it not plausible that one game in the playoffs leads to being eliminated? I don't think a metric like WAR tells the whole story here. That's a fine indicator over the course of many games. But in the playoffs, if the closer blows it, the game is over. There's no time within the game or possibly even the series or adjust. I understand this is a squishy thought, but if McCann allows a passed ball in the third inning that Adley wouldn't have, there's a way to recover from that. No such case if the closer hangs a breaking ball. Plus I would argue the relevance of a closer increases in the playoffs. Unlike the regular season, they can theoretically appear in every game. And the competitive balance is typically tighter in the playoffs, so you would expect more close games that beget their appearing. Even if you don't think he's the most valuable player, he's not too far down the list.

It's not just the individual brilliance of the player, it's the dropoff between the player and his replacement. 2023 Adley --> 2023 McCann isn't as steep of a cliff as 2023 Felix --> 2023 whoever his replacement is. You have to adjust for importance of the position. But I think when you shrink the sample size to the playoffs where one inning is the difference between a championship and not, closer becomes even more important. There's a straight faced argument Felix is the most indispensable player.

I posted this in the thread about Shohei, but when Ohtani first came over, they were treating him delicately and he still had nagging injuries. So they decided to revert to what he did in Japan and go full bore. It worked until it didn't.

"Back in my day, pitchers needed work, none of this babying BS."

The remaining 11 opportunities in the regular season are one thing since they'll only matter in terms of seeding. The bigger issue is the margin of error in the playoffs. Even if the dropoff between Felix and whoever else is just one game over the course of a playoff run, there's a fair chance that's alone leads to elimination. If that difference is more than one game, which I think is plausible given the competitive nature of playoff games and the frequency with which Felix would be used, then I don't think the team can overcome that.

You've been calling for him in every single remotely closely game this year, right? Maybe you should reevaluate your approach to how hard relievers should be used.

It almost looks like the decision to pull him had some forethought, like they had gone over the scenario. Hopefully just a precaution...

Hahaha touche.

Fuji looking more confident now. I maintain Hyde should've built him up rather than baptizing him by fire.

We are who the BJs think they are. See ya next year!

He has a whopping seven pitches according to statcast. It's just that he has pared down the secondary offerings over time because location has been such an issue. Couple that with the fastball not having much movement and hitters sitting on it and there's just a lot to work on. I think he could have a turnaround with the benefit of an offseason though. I would consider extending him on a prove-it deal if you can get a good price now.

Good call. Should have checked, just had in my head that he recovered so quickly and didn't realize he technically missed the first few weeks.

That's not what I'm saying. My point is that specifically with a player like Showalter--ie a prep pitcher in his first season of professional baseball--the Orioles have much more information than anyone else relative to older players. If a guy went to college and then has been playing in the minors for a couple of years, there's plenty of tape on him such that anyone can get a pretty good feel for the player even if they don't have the in-house data that his team does. But when you're dealing with a 19 year old who has played in 10 pro games, the public information is seriously lacking. You're going off of a whopping 30 innings of grainy video from rookie ball and low-A. That's a massive disparity compared to the team that has been vetting him for a full year outside of those 30 innings. So none of us, nor even the Cardinals, can really form nearly as good of an opinion on him as the Orioles can. Certain guys impress immediately. Coaches and players can see it right away and know what they have. If that was Showalter, I don't think the O's would have thrown him in as the third piece to get a mediocre rental. But they did, so they probably don't think Showalter is that kind of guy. I'm the first person to express hesitation at dealing high-upside prospects, and of course he could put it together and be a winning ticket, but making Showalter out to be anything more than wishful thinking is romanticizing him.

I remember reading a piece awhile back that said Ohtani was being treated delicately when he first came over, ie skipping his spot in the rotation frequently and giving him days off as a batter. But it wasn't preventing injuries, so they decided to revert to the way he played in Japan, which was just going full tilt and then rehabbing as much as possible. Can't find the article now because there are so many search results for Ohtani. But it felt like a ticking time bomb to me. Bryce Harper had TJ this past offseason and was back by opening day. I have no doubt Ohtani will take his recovery as seriously. I don't know what that means as a pitcher, but maybe the next chapter of his wonderful story is learning to play in the outfield. He has elite speed and obviously an elite arm, so he could become GG level there.

My prevailing thoughts are the same in the sense that if you've offered St. Louis Prieto + Rom and they're insisting on another high-upside piece, the question is whether you're really willing to torpedo the deal over that ask. And in this case, it wasn't. But it is conceivable to me that there's a reality where you say no based on what you've seen. Showalter has been in the building for a year now, which is enough time to have a more complete picture of his upside than you can gleam from high school scouting reports. And that information is relatively proprietary given that he hasn't had much time to put professional tape out there for other teams to see. So I'm not saying that the O's have soured on Showalter, but I do think they wouldn't have dealt him if they viewed him as more than a lottery ticket. This is conjecture, but you could imagine a conscious strategy of bringing in high-profile/overslot guys, vetting them in-house, and then making available the ones who haven't passed your checklist but still have that shine on them from their pre-draft/signing days.

The Orioles have, far and away, the best intel on Showalter. They've scouted him and watched him train/play. If they thought he had the kind of upside you're guessing he has, I highly doubt they would have included him in the trade. Obviously a kid that young can put things together in ways that can't be foreseen. And it's worth bringing those types of guys into the system because of that. But the fact that he was likely the third addition to a multi-prospect deal for a rental who isn't particularly good should tell you what the Orioles--who know him way better than you, I, or the Cardinals--think about his value.

He should make this his profile picture.

Golf swing from Santander. He has underrated plate coverage.

There's speed and then there's THAT. What a demon on the bases. Also, Mansolino has been great with his sends this year.

Do we play every AL team in their park every year? I can't keep track of the schedule changes anymore. I'm just curious how MASN chooses to cover things now after the Brown debacle.

Has MASN given much coverage to the fact that this is the last time the O's will play in Oakland? I haven't had the volume on much during this series. Feel bad for these fans, would be sad as well having to endure a season like this.

I would give Vespi as many opportunities as possible to prove himself. We need lefties badly.

Sit down, Felix.