Safelykept
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Posts posted by Safelykept
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26 minutes ago, Billy F-Face3 said:
I agree. Webb needs some rest.
Dont like to criticize Hyde, but if Irvin was available today, why not let him start the 7th and possibly complete the game.
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26 minutes ago, Fiver6565 said:
Two hits today. Apparently I was on to something this morning....
Board just gives up way too soon on players working through slumps.
Henderson was once again brilliant, O'Hearn with another big time home run, Burnes?, was Burnes. The rest of the day was whipping boy day. Mateo keeps doing what hes been doing, great Defense, the scratch single to right followed by a steal took third on an error which brought us to MCann, down 0-2 he brings in Mateo( not to mention he gives Adley a full day off. 8th inning rally was 3 that have been slumping the worst Cowser( other than the last 2 games) Hayes and Mullins. If Hayes and Mullins start playing like they can you're going to see the non believers come out of the woodwork.
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16 minutes ago, Frobby said:
Nice to see Mullins hit a straight up line drive RBI single. That’s something he hasn’t been doing.
Added a stolen base, had the quiet Hit last night. It all starts somewhere, come on Cedric snap out of it.
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9 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:
I'd be singing a different tune if he were making some loud outs, if he'd been robbed of a few hits...but man, he just can't do anything at the plate. Like, that batting average really resembles just how bad he's been.
Yeah but at least he got a quiet hit this game his first of the year. I know there was a shift in 2020 and he was four years younger and this entire board had left him for dead as prospect, but the quiet hit was a big part of what kick started his career. Just saying.
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2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:
The question is would attendance be greater if they had kept a core together. I wouldn't trust the Cleveland attendance from the late 90's as a guide.
Cleveland opened Jacobs Field in 1994, had some really good teams thru 2001 and were top 5 attendance 1994 until 2001 including a couple of times leading the league It's been all downhill since, dont think the been in the top 10 in the last 20 years.
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Schedule starts to become conducive to increased attendance. You have Seattle the next 2 games(Sat and Sun), then the next 4 home stands( which brings us to All Star break) are as follows, week of Memorial day Boston and Tampa on the weekend, but with the holiday basically 4 weekend dates. Then Atlanta followed by Philly on the weekend, should be the best week of the year so far. Then a 7 game week of Cleveland with a 4 game weekend series against Texas. Finally The Cubs come to town followed by weekend against the Yankees. Should be good.
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3 minutes ago, Hank Scorpio said:
I think everyone agrees when he’s healthy, he’s pretty good.
But that doesn’t mean he should be starting over Cowser. Maybe against lefties but he’s never been lefty assassin.
He can spell Mullins too. Really nice addition if he can get back to playing like Hayes again.Now, if only we can Mullins going.
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22 minutes ago, Frobby said:
Is it me, or is the overall tone of the message board very negative right now?
I realize there are several players in slumps right now, and the overall offense hasn’t been that good the last 14 games or so. Still, big picture, the team is on pace to win 107 games and finish with the highest runs/game in the AL. And despite the recent slump, the team has won 10 of its last 14 games, including taking 3 of 4 from the Yankees. The hitting may have slumped, but the pitchers have been unbelievable of late. Over the 14 game stretch that the offense has been slumping, the team has a 2.13 ERA.
Bottom line, the season has gone great so far. Yeah there are guys slumping. That happens. Some will come out of it, some may have off years or be about done. But this team is winning, consistently. Sometimes the offense carries the pitching, sometimes it’s the other way around. Sometimes everything is hitting on all cylinders, but that doesn’t happen all that much for any team. The O’s are constantly finding ways to win, and that’s what good teams do. So count me as a happy camper, regardless of who’s slumping at the moment.
Overall tone of this board is usually negative, but to you're point, most complaints are against offense production. If you look league wide that's common. Pitchers are ahead of hitters at this point. You think the Yankee board was happy only scoring 6 runs in 4 games. And it does not get any easier this weekend, Seattle comes in, we get to face their best 3 starters, on one of the best staffs in baseball.
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1 hour ago, Matt Bennett said:
I think you forgot Colton Cowser
Not to mention Hayes or even Santander or some impending FA, the thought of a Norby/Stowers platoon in LF, hope were better than that, maybe they move the wall back in.
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4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:
I don’t think you know what definitely means
Who Could?
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7 minutes ago, Frobby said:
What are you trying to say? Adley isn’t going to catch every day. Someone has to catch when he doesn’t. The O’s start McCann either when a LHP is starting, or when there’s a day game following a night game. That has him catching 40% of the time. That’s about where the Orioles want him — last year it was 33%, and my guess is he’ll end up closer to there.
Agree
8 minutes ago, Frobby said:What are you trying to say? Adley isn’t going to catch every day. Someone has to catch when he doesn’t. The O’s start McCann either when a LHP is starting, or when there’s a day game following a night game. That has him catching 40% of the time. That’s about where the Orioles want him — last year it was 33%, and my guess is he’ll end up closer to there.
Agree probably will drift down to 33%, unless they have big plans for Adley, which I hope they do. I know you understand what that means, wonder if that poster we've been responding to does.
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9 minutes ago, maybenxtyr said:
If you don't think they are using McCann as an extra right handed bat against lefties, then I guess we are watching something different.
What are you watching? All hes done is play catcher has he DH or played 1B? How many times has he pinch hit? Whats with this extra bat against lefties? Hes a backup catcher that bats RH, would seem to make sense that when he started it would against A LH, which there were plenty of early on.
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51 minutes ago, maybenxtyr said:
Well, Westburg could start at 2nd instead of Mateo.
McCann could be used as just a back up catcher instead of using him just to get an extra RH bat in the lineup. He's been in 19 of the teams 41 games. That seems a bit excessive for a guy that's just a backup.
You really don't have to squint to see an opportunity for a player to get a chance... especially if he can start hitting rather quickly.
Thats all there using Mcann for is backup catcher 17 starts all at catcher, Mayo does not play catcher.
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5 hours ago, Sports Guy said:
Please stop overrating and overvaluing Mateo. Os fans really can’t learn their lesson with this guy.
He is thriving in his role right now and that’s great. He looks to be turning into a good super UTI guy although we still need to see more of it.
But let’s stop with the idea that he should play over Holliday long term this season.
Who said that, other than You?
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7 hours ago, maybenxtyr said:
They're really getting to the point where they need to do something with Urias or Mateo. Mateo seems to be in favor right now so Urias is the likely candidate to move for Mayo. Mayo could get 4-5 starts a week and hopefully provide some pop after an acclimation period.
Mullins isn't going anywhere because they just don't have a reliable CF other than him.
Grab a BP arm or 2 and roll with what they have.
Mayo For Urias nets Mayo 4 or 5 starts a week. Where? Urias is barely getting one start a week
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8 hours ago, Sports Guy said:
Barring a rash of injuries, the Os are going to be in the playoffs. Seeding matters very little but they will either be the 1 seed or the 4 seed imo.
That said, the reason I mention this is because we have had a lot of discussions about replacing player X or player Y.
The reason to replace this guy or that guy isn’t to improve for the regular season…it’s to improve for the playoffs and give us the best chance to win.
With that in mind, by the time the playoffs get here, these are the players the team will be depending on, again barring injury, unexpected (or continuing) awful performanceor any potential trade:
Offensive players: Mounty, Holliday, Henderson, Westburg, Cowser, Mullins, Hays, Santander and OHearn.
Pitchers: Burnes, Bradish, Grayson, Means, Kremer, Irvin, Cano, DC, Kimbrel
That is 18 players. Mateo and McCann will also be on the postseason roster but McCann isn’t likely to see the field, although Mateo will.
That leaves 6 spots. Some of those spots may be filled by internal candidates for the pen or a guys like Mayo, Kjerstad and Norby. Basallo could get in this picture but his continued slow start makes that even more unlikely than it was.
End of the day, the goal the rest of this season should be to get the roster to the point where they can win a title.
For me, that means a few things:
1) Get 1 high leverage reliever and maybe 2.
2) Get Holliday up within the next 6 weeks.
3) Get Mayo playing time in RF now, so he can get up here in the second half and be ready to contribute. They could use his right handed bat.
As of now, you don’t trade for an offensive player or a starting pitcher unless there is one there that you can control for several years.
The resources the team has should go the pen and getting the right arm(s) for October. We consistently see teams go against the Orioles with these dominant pens where everyone is throwing 98+ with big time swing and miss stuff. This is what the Os will be facing in the playoffs, so we need Holliday and Mayo to get up here to face that a lot and we need arms to match those guys in the playoffs.
For me, the playoffs are a foregone conclusion but success in the playoffs is not. This roster isn’t there yet for that but it can be.
I like the strengthening the BP plan, but not sure how you do this. Also there are other ways to win as per Texas last year, who traded for Montgomery at the deadline (absolute Brilliance) as HE and Evaldi came up huge in the post season. BP addition was Chapman, not sure anybody is saying go after him as an upgrade to the BP. Texas BP did have thier moments last year in the post season but nowhere like the above mentioned starters, and most importantly they came up there swing those bats. Just Saying
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On 5/12/2024 at 11:26 PM, dzorange said:
Baltimore really hasn’t had many great draws so far. In one sense, the Yankees Monday through Thursday was great because they got decent crowds out of days that normally draw the worst crowds. But Oakland, Arizona, Seattle on the weekends is rough. Tampa is in a few weeks as well. You’re not getting out of towners for those.
I’m not expecting great attendance numbers for this upcoming week.
ESPN had announced crowd of 29,570 , How is that? The place looked less than half filled
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44 minutes ago, interloper said:
Love Hyde, and normally support the vast majority of his moves, but this was the worst-managed game of his career. We stole a win somehow, but man oh man.
- Insistence on starting McCann (57 OPS+)
- Playing Mullins over Hays
- Not PHing O'Hearn for McCann (who cares if you lose the DH, it's the 8th inning, go for the win)
- Bunting with 1 out with McCann (and with 2 strikes)
- Urias for Stowers
Brutal. Everyone has a rough game, including managers, so it's whatever. But wow.
Easily in his top 5 so far, perhaps the best of year.
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5 minutes ago, Frobby said:
Oh, I understand that. I didn’t have time to post both rWAR and fWAR when I wrote my post, so I just posted rWAR. But fWAR feels more in line with my impressions of Mountcastle’s season so far. That’s totally subjective on my part. I feel like a .797 OPS for a 1B is good, not great, even in a down offensive year league wide. Anyway, I’d be quite happy if the rest of Mountcastle’s year went like the first quarter has gone. He’s played really good defense this year too.
and the defense? Again I'm a Mountcastle detractor, but if I'm wrong i tip my cap(and its only at the quarter polr) but he has played above expectations
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6 minutes ago, Frobby said:
fWAR only has him at 0.7, so on pace for 2.8. I don’t feel like he’s having a 5 WAR season, but I do think he’s having an above average season by his standards. Not quite far enough above average for me to put him in the exceeding expectations category, but I can see the case for it.
You're original post that i responded to was 1.2 WAR (as per you're post) So now its 0.7 as per f vs r, whatever that means. Again I responded to you're post that had him at 1.2 rWAR, as does BBREF. 1.2 times 4 is closer to 5 than 2.8.
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8 minutes ago, dystopia said:
I don't think losing 1 game counts as being swept.
Me neither but 2 does if you dont have a chance to play the third. This is not Washington, this was scheduled as a 3 game series.
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7 minutes ago, RavensNOsGuy said:
We now are on sweep watch if we lose tomorrow….bet the farm on us winning!
I guess by that rational if were rained out tomorrow the streak ends.
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5 hours ago, Frobby said:
Here are my votes. I didn’t include anyone with less than 50 PA or 15 IP.
Exceeding expectations
Henderson .892 OPS, 2.7 rWAR
Westburg .871 OPS, 1.8 rWAR
Cowser .831 OPS, 0.7 rWAR (ignoring recency bias)
O’Hearn .883 OPS, 1.0 rWAR
Mateo .706 OPS, 0.6 rWAR
Irvin 4-1, 2.90 ERA, 0.9 rWAR
Suarez 2-0, 1.96 ERA, 0.8 rWAR
Webb 0-2, 1.47 ERA, 0.4 rWAR
Akin 1-0, 3.00 ERA, 0.2 rWAR
Coulombe, 0-0, 2.30 ERA, 0.5 rWAR
Meeting expectations
Rutschman .834 OPS, 1.7 rWAR
Mountcastle .797 OPS, 1.2 rWAR
Santander .731 OPS, 0.5 rWAR
McCann .541 OPS, - 0.5 rWAR
Burnes 3-2, 2.68 ERA, 1.0 rWAR
Kremer 3-3, 3.73 ERA, -0.2 rWAR
Rodriguez 4-1, 3.71 ERA, 0.3 rWAR
Cano 2-1, 2.21 ERA, 0.4 rWAR
Baumann 1-0, 4.02 ERA, -0.1 rWAR
Failing to meet expectations
Mullins .592 OPS, 0.4 rWAR
Urias .492 OPS, 0.0 rWAR
Hays .311 OPS, -0.9 rWAR
Wells 0-2, 5.87 ERA, -0.3 rWAR
Kimbrel 4-1, 3.86 ERA, 8 saves, 3 blown saves, 0.0 rWAR
Obviously, many of these are debatable, and largely depend what your expectations were to begin with. For example, Adley is having an excellent season, but I expect excellence from him. He’s probably exceeding my expectations a little, but not enough to put him in the exceeding expectations category. My expectations for Baumann were low, and he’s doing about what I expected.
Bottom line, we have more guys exceeding expectations than failing to meet them, but there’s plenty of room for improvement
Good list. its only the quarter pole, and being often critical of him I'd have to say Mountcastle has far exceeded my expectations > On pace to WAR 4.5 to 5, which would put him in rare company of some past O's first baseman
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1 hour ago, 24fps said:
Joey Ortiz is currently hitting .261/.359/.466/.825 over 88 AB which works out to a 135 OPS+ . He's playing pretty much everyday in Milwaukee against both RHP and LHP. Maybe the O's are being too cute with all the platooning etc., and it's time to pick a direction with some of these guys and stick with it.
What Cowser do over his first 88 ABs this year?
Cedric Mullins 2024
in Orioles Talk
Posted
And who knows?, maybe it is.