EERinthe804

Since GRod likely won’t need any rehab starts, I’m thinking they conveniently time a Kimbrel IL stint with GRod’s return next week (or the following week). That would shift either Means or Irvin to bullpen.

Sorry I forgot about the demographics on this board . I’ll do better next time.

No hate but I do think his upside is limited. He’s certainly steady and thus far hasnt been injury prone.

….once everyone is back and healthy…the best rotation may be: Burnes G Rod Bradish Povich Suraez Don’t crush me…lol

Yep all points are correct. Minor league depth is meant to be minor league depth prospects, not for this year and maybe not for next year. It’s organizational depth not necessarily 2024 depth.

After roughly 1/3 of spring training games and not much else to do, I put together my thoughts on my OD predictions at this point: I don't think Elias is necessarily going to try to put the best possible lineup out there for OD. He is trying to win the World Series, not win April. In doing this, he has to balance risk/liability with winning games. Ideally, these two differing ideas reconcile, but early in the year I believe they won't. For instance, if Elias brings up all the young prospects (Mayo, Holliday, Coswer, etc) and jettisons the veterans (Mateo, Urias, McKenna, etc), that very well may be the best "team" he could field in order to win games, but it doesn't address mitigation for injuries/players playing poorly, etc. Elias wants to keep all options/flexibility open for as long as its feasible. For instance, we may believe Mayo is an upgrade to Urias and will help win more games overall - which may or may not be the case. Why would Elias want to have Mayo on OD and DFA (for instance) Urias? That's a huge gamble and opens up a ton of liability/risk for the team. In that scenario, if Mayo doesn't play well or gets injured, Urias is no longer rostered to replace him - it's an all or nothing gamble. Instead he can start OD with Urias and have Mayo in AAA, see how the season plays out for those 2 players and as the season moves forward, risk begins to go down for 2 reasons (1) you have a better sample size of each player and how they will perform and (2) there is less season left for injuries, etc to occur. With all of this said, I do think as we get late into the year and near playoff time, Elias does want to go "all-in" on the his best "team" and will do what's appropriate to have the best players rostered and ready to contribute - no matter if they are young players or more experienced veterans. It's too early in the year to take these risks, in my opinion. Let the season playout some then place your bets on who to DFA or call up. With this in mind - below is my thoughts on opening day (and a little peek at organization depth) as of this point (the players in green are not on the 40-man roster). I think they try to pass Nevin and Maton thru waivers to get them at AAA for depth. Opening Minor League Day Depth CF Mullins Cowser/Bradfield C Rutschman Basallo SS Henderson Servideo/Bencosme RF Santander Kjerstad/Horvath 1B Mountcastle Willems DH O'Hearn Fabian LF Hays Stowers/Beavers 3B Westburg Mayo/Wagner 2B Holliday Norby/Wong SP Burnes Teheran SP Rodriguez McDermott SP Kremer Povich SP Wells Armbruester SP Irvin Krook RP Kimbrel Vespi RP Cano Charles RP Coulombe Seth Johnson RP Perez Heasley RP Tate Baker RP Webb Ort RP Baumann Watson RP Akin Zimmerman Bench McCann Bench Mateo Bench Urias Bench McKenna Injured Means Injured Bradish Injured Bautista

I wouldn't be shocked to see Mayo make the OD roster and Holliday start in AAA. If Mayo has a nice spring and Holliday doesn't - it will be interesting.

I’d like to see the Os work out a trade where Santander goes to Marlins for high leverage RP and then Os sign Bellinger on 2 year deal. Bellinger gives ultimate flexibility in outfield where all 3 starters could play CF. The caveat to this is that Bellinger will likely get or already likely has better than a 2 year deal in hand.

I don't like having up to 6 guys that are out of options. Elias & Co. seem to favor optionable guys as it provides such flexibility during the season for injuries, performance, etc. I expect the Os to trade for another RP this offseason or during Spring Training and potentially make room for them by including one of the RPs without options like Baumann/Webb (and maybe Urias or Mateo too, with maybe a prospect thrown in). I don't think Baumann (and maybe Webb) will be on the roster on OD - just my opinion. The infield needs sorted out too and I do believe they keep either Mateo or Urias but I don't see keeping both (that's why I think one of them will be included in a trade to make roster space).

I’ve finally decided…I want Jesus Lazardo from Marlins. I think he’s a better pitcher than Cease. I’d give up Santander, Mateo (they need a SS), Ortiz, and Cowser. Lazardo is under control for 3 years and he’ll likely get via arbitration $5.5m/yr which will increase slightly per year. Now, what if the Os also did something crazy on top of that? It could only happen if Cody Bellinger doesn’t get the long term deal he’s looking for. Sign Bellinger for 2 years at $50m total deal. He’s a plus OF that can play all 3 positions + 1B. He takes Santander’s spot in the lineup and he looks fully healthy now after that nasty shoulder injury a few years ago. I love Santander but this is an upgrade over him at a reasonable cost. $25m vs $11.5m in 2024….only paying $14m more. Santander will be a FA after 2024 anyway. So the Os would get a #2-3 SP and an upgrade in OF for relatively cheap. Am I nuts?

Lots of options on the infield as many of the prospects and current players can play multiple positions (Mayo-3B/1B, Ortiz-2B/SS, Holliday-2B/SS, Henderson, 3B/SS, Westburg-2B/3B, Urias-2B/3B/1B, etc) I see an issue in the OF, however. The Os love players that can move around and play various positions in case of injury or rest is needed. Santander and Kjerstad are sort of a liability in this department. I suppose one could argue that Santander could (and has) played 1B but neither of them can play around the OF. If Mullins is injured or needs the day off, the Os are sort of forced to use Hays there or someone off the bench. Cowser played CF a few times last year but from what I saw he wasn't what we need (unless he just had some bad games fielding those days). I expect them to move Santander this offseason. For one, his lack of flexibility in the field and two, he's in his final year anyway. That way you only have one liability position-wise in the OF - Kjerstad and it gives you an extra spot for another OF that can play multiple positions. Just my two cents.

1 Holliday 2B 2 Rutschman 1B 3 Henderson SS 4 Kjerstad RF 5 Mayo DH 6 Westburg 3B 7 Cowser LF 8 Basallo C 9 Bradfield CF

Looks like Urias and Rutschman are late scratches tonight due to illness. I’m thinking that was Gibsons issue too.

Kremer mentioned he had to call him because he wasn’t there. Is he sick?

Cade texted his dad after the game that he was tipping pitches as the other team was signaling what was coming before they took him out because his glove is too small…

Tell me you don’t know what operating income is without telling me you don’t know what operating income is.

All of what you described times 10 doesn't cost $100MM/year.

Yes, Cade's dad is on another message board that I'm on and he says that he's starting tonight in the deciding game!

I'd love to see the P&L for the Orioles. We all know Angelos is a liar regarding what the Os can afford and not afford in terms of long-term contracts. But this thread got me thinking...~2MM people at an avg ticket price of $34 (link to avg ticket price: https://www.statista.com/statistics/203453/baltimore-orioles-average-ticket-price/) basically pays the entire big league roster by itself. Sponsorships/Concessions/Concerts etc likely pay the front office staff and other facility/minor league expenses. So basically Angelos is pocketing close to $100MM annually ($60MM national TV share + $40MM MASN TV share). Heck, let's say I underestimated the "other expenses" outside of the MLB payroll by $50MM....he's still pocketing $50MM/year....

Billy Joel concert at M&T stadium on 10/7, the same day Orioles host ALDS Game 1 if they win division. That will be interesting.

I would love for them to make a run at Manoah. Apparantly he is disgruntled in Toronto - they sent him to AAA a month or two ago and he failed to report. His value has never been lower and his talent is sky high. If anyone can fix him it's the Os coaches.

Obviously there will be acquisitions, DFAs, non-tendered players, etc so it's impossible to know who ends up on the opening day 26-man roster but for fun here's mine: SP (5) - Bradish, Means, Rodriguez, Kremer, Wells (starts year in AAA/AA - DL Hall, Seth Johnson, Cole Irvin, Chayce McDermott, Cade Povich, Kyle Brnovich) RP- (8) - Perez, Cano, Coulombe, Webb, Baumann, 3 new RP's not in org today (starts year in AAA/AA - Vespi, Tate, Zimmerman, Krehbiel, Baker, Akin) Infielders (6) - Mountcastle, O'Hearn, Henderson, Urias, Westburg, Holliday (starts year in AAA/AA - Ortiz, Norby, Mayo, Vavra) Outfielders (5) - Hays, Mullins, Kjerstad, Cowser, McKenna (starts year in AAA/AA - Stowers, Dylan Beavers, Jud Fabian) Catcher (2) - Rutschman, McCann (starts year in AAA/AA - Basallo) I like the fact that in the minors, the organization has some veterans and talented prospects to bring up as injuries occur or the need for reinforcements. The only real trade candidates would be Santander or O'Hearn but I think they keep O'Hearn. Felix Bautista - assumes he misses 2024 due to surgery. I don't want to see it happen but since Santander is due to be a FA at the end of next year and he had a good year this year, they may trade him this offseason for some relief/starting pitching help and some young prospects.

Kjerstad came up for Vavra and is playoff eligible

I believe the 26-man playoff roster allows for no more than 13 pitchers. See my thoughts below: Starting Pitchers (4): Bradish, Rodriguez, Kremer, Means Relief Pitchers (8): Bautista (if healthy), Wells (if healthy), Cano, Perez, Coulombe, Webb, Hall, and Gibson (emergency starter/long relief). If Bautista or Wells can't go, I'm assuming the options are: Irvin, Flaherty, Krehbiel, Baumann, Fujinami, Baker, and Vespi, - not real excited about any of those options. Outfielders (5): Hays, Mullins, Santander, Hicks, and Kjerstad Infielders (7): Henderson, Mountcastle, O'Hearn, Urias, Mateo, Frazier, and Westburg Catchers (2): Rutschman, McCann I think off the bench it's nice to have some specialty players such as Mateo (pinch runner and great defensive replacement) and Kjerstad (power hitter, pinch hit HR type). It seems like the Bautista situation is inching toward him giving it a go but the Wells situation is going the other way.