Tony-OH

I'll be honest, I could care less if it has a name or not. It's dumb looking, but if it makes him feel better, then whatever. It's still better than the disgusting Licopotamus!

As I stated in another thread, I have concerns about his penchant for allowing home runs for him to be a back end guy. Plus, we know he can go multiple innings and there's value in that for keeping Hyde from burning through his bullpen like he did in the first half last year.

If the Orioles don't acquire another starter, then he will get every opportunity to win a rotation spot again. But it's been discussed ad nauseum the reasons why it's too late to expect 175 innings from Wells in other threads. If they need to use him for the first half again then I'd be ok with that, but if they acquire a top starter that they need, he's going to be depth behind the current four (Bradish, Grod, Means, Kremer). Also, we all know his stuff plays in relief though his penchant of giving up homers means I would not want him closing or in one run games late with power hitters coming up.

Who is manipulating data? You are being ridiculous. Whatever your hate for this guy is, it's unfounded. You've been proven wrong, not with manipulation, but with actual stats that matter. No one is cherry picking anything. Feel free to hate the signing and player all you want, but the stats say this is a great signing and the more I dig into his numbers the more I like what I see from him last year after the bad start. Last year's poor start was an outlier to his career.

Contending teams don't just bet that a "good relief pitcher" can close. Baseball history is littered with guys who can't handle the pressure of closing. Kimbrel had a bad start to year last year, no doubt. But after his awful May 3rd appearance, he pitched to a 2.21 ERA over his last 57 innings holding batters to a .162/.246/.293/.538 slash line. I'll take that as closer.

I won't argue that, just stating that it was two poor outings, not that he looked bad the entire post season.

Yes, the implosion guys are really the guys fighting for spots. I probably should have written that differently though right now, one of Irvin/Wells would need to be the 5th starter.

What he did in his 20s means nothing to no one, including Elias. Again, you refuse to tell us what in his stats from last year make you think he's just a name and not still very good? What, because he had two bad post season games?

He actually only had two bad appearances in the NLCS where he lost two games back to back. He was actually very good the rest of the post season.

How I see things assuming Kimbrel signs: Bullpen: Closer: Kimbrel (though others will get shots at times) 8th inning: Cano (depends on matchups) Wells could also get some play in this role depending on Cano 7th inning: Hall (depends on matchups) Set up/Matchups: Coloumbe (LHP) Set up/Matchups: Perez (LHP) Set up/Matchups: Tate is healthy (Webb here if not) Multi inning: Wells (RHP) Multi Inning: Irvin (LHP) if he doesn't break as 5th starter. Early starter implosion guy: Baumann/Webb/Baker/Akin Rotation: (I'm hoping they add a top starter here) 1. Kyle Bradish 2. Grayson Rodriguez 3. John Means 4. Dean Kremer 5. (for now) Cole Irvin/Tyler Wells

There were some major red flags with Given's knee and weight that the Orioles ignored and flushed $5 million down the drain. I don't see Kimbrel being anywhere near the risk that Givens was.

If I did, I did it off the cuff (probably allowed his terrible outings in the NLCS to affect my thoughts of him) and not after looking at his numbers. Once I heard about the potential signing I looked up all of his stuff and was surprised by how good he was last year. I also saw that most of his runs were given up through homers and that he would have thrown four less in Camden Yards. That makes me feel like he will have more success with us and his ERA should go down. Now obviously he'll be 36 next year so you don't know how he'll really be, but I like his signing a whole lot more than the Givens signing last year.

How can you look at his stats last year and his statcast data and determine that he's not "good". What do you not like? I hate his vulture stance before the pitch as well, but his stuff is still good and if the Orioles are getting him on a one or two year contract that reasonable I'm 100% on board in this.

For the life of me I don't understand why people don't like this signing. He's got a plus fastball and curveball. He can miss bats (12.3 K/9). He's got a ton of playoff experience, Neither lefties or righties hit him very well: RHB: .179/.253/.359/.612 LHB: .184/.302/.306/.608 Last year he allowed too many homers (11) but only 7 would have been out of Camden Yards. I think people are being influenced by two bad outings in the NLCS. Personally I think he will be great addition to the bullpen, even at 36-years old. I will even get used to his stupid vulture pre-pitch stance!

What if they felt he needs AAA PAs to really develop? Each player is different and maybe they felt it doesn't make sense to keep him at the lower levels because he can just dominate those kinds of players? Holliday very well may be promoted before August, but if there's no need on the big league club, it makes sense long term to give him that development time in AAA and financially for the club because it breaks his free agency up with Gunnar's by two years.

The real question is what does Elias have to gain by being consistent about this? Is he making sure teams know that Westburg, Ortiz and Norby are available? One would think teams already should know this. Elias is calculated and smart. There is an ulterior motive to "show" his cards like this. This in an organization that treats an injury on a FCL player like it's a state secret. Why so open about their plans for Holliday? Don't get me wrong, I don't believe for a second Holliday will make this team on OD unless Westburg AND Ortiz are moved this offseason, but it does make me ponder the why, more than taking anything else out of these statements.

As I stated in his scouting profile, he improved a bunch last year defensively. His footwork improved and in turn his accuracy in throwing improved. The biggest change was at Norfolk where they worked on him with a drop step on balls hit to his right allowing him to play closer to the hitter. this allowed him to come on on more balls effectively. There are still going to be some errors and while he's not a plus defender, I do think he can be an adequate defensive 3B who will also make some plays others can't because his absolute hose of an arm.

If you go back and reread my comment, I said Henderson was more physical at the same age, not necessarily amore advanced. Henderson was definitely stronger and he's two inches taller and is just a more physical guy all-around. Holliday is definitely the more advanced hitter at the same age though. Also, let's not forget that Gunnar basically lost an entire year of his minor league career due to COVID so it's tough to do a pure age for age comparison statistically. Again, I'm not trying to diminish Holliday in any way besides just being honest about his physicality vs a guy like Gunnar Henderson or say, Manny Machado. Now, could Holliday end up a better hitter overall then these guys, sure.

We shall see. There are a lot of factors that will determine when Holliday makes the majors: 1) Team need at 2B or SS 2) Holliday's AAA performance both offensively and defensively 3) Long-term Economic factors 4) Orioles team performance Gunnar Henderson, who was the equivalent type of prospects, but was more physical, stronger and probably faster than Holliday at the same age, didn't make his major league debut until he was 21-years old after 295 AAA PAs. Holliday has 91 PAs in AAA. If Westburg and/or Ortiz are still here come spring, one of them is going to be the everyday 2B. I personally think Mayo is going to be the opening day 3B with Gunnar at SS. If Westburg/Ortiz is playing well at 2B, the team is doing well, why would they start Holliday's clock at the major league level? Plus, if they give him the Gunnar treatment and bring him up on Aug 31st, he's playoff eligible and they can keep his PAs under the amount to keep him a a rookie in 2025. Now, could Holliday force his way to the big leagues by dominating and then Westburg/Ortiz/Mayo struggle and they decide to bring him up sooner, sure, that's a possibility. But the best plan when you take both short term and long term implications is for Holliday to spend most of 2024 in the minors IF Westburg/Ortiz are playing well and there's no need on the major league team. There still could be trades so that could change things, but I definitely think saying it's "zero chance" this happens is hyperbole at it's finest. I realize fans want to see Holliday and rightfully so, he's going to be a fun player to watch, but this is an organization that signed Adam Frazier last year despite having both Westburg and Ortiz ready to take over 2B and Urias as a backup plan. If Mayo wins 3B this spring and Westburg and/or Ortiz is still in the organization, Holliday is going spend a lot more time in AAA then you guys think. This organization has five players in AAA that are fully major league ready (Ortiz/Mayo/Kjerstad/Norby/Cowser). Holliday is nearly ready but it's too early for me to say he's absolutely ready after just one minor league season. Could he be, sure, because his hit tool is special. But he still needs to grow into his man strength and his defense needs to be more consistent at both SS and 2B.

Damn, that does seem like a long time ago now that you say it like that. A whole lifetime ago for sure. I love the way back machine. Always cool to go back in time and see the amount of time and effort I was putting in back then to start this thing up. This is the first snapshot of the site from 1999. Some of the links still work. https://web.archive.org/web/19990427141640/http://www.orioleshangout.com/

I may have come a little way. But it was fun to go back and read some names I haven't thought about in a long time! Looks like I didn't do a top prospects list per se, but more of a "minor league organizational report." At least I liked Sidney Ponson! Just a note. I was a Warrant Officer at Fort Bragg when I wrote this with no contacts whatsoever. All the "analysis" was off of what I read or statistical analysis. https://web.archive.org/web/19990202231502/http://www.geocities.com/Colosseum/8533/organ.htm

The whole winter meetings has now just become a boondoggle for everyone involved.

I disagree. Unless there's a need at either shortstop or 2B this year, I think he gets the Gunnar treatment (Aug 31st). I expect Mayo has a better chance to make OD lineup than Holliday. Mayo will be there rookie of the year candidate in 2024, Holliday in 2025.

Cool place. We went to eat at a restaurant in the Orlando Gaylord and that was impressive as well. They're like little villages with a hotel attached.

Sad to read that Ryan Minor is under hospice care due to his Stage 4 colon cancer. I had interacted with Ryan many times over the years when he was manager of the Delmarva Shorebirds. While not the most affable guy when talking prospects, he would sit in his office after a game and talk with me about his guys. I always appreciated that he was always willing to say hello when I would watch pregame in the stands. While he will mostly be remembered for being the guy who replaced Cal Ripken Jr. at 3B to end Cal's game streak, I'll remember him for hitting some of the longest home runs I've seen at Prince George's stadium. He teamed with Calvin Pickering to give the Baysox some of the longest home runs hit there back in 1998. My thoughts and prayers go out to Ryan's family and friends. 49-years old is way too young. Cancer sucks!