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Tony-OH

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Everything posted by Tony-OH

  1. The bar is not incredibly high to get into the Orioles Hall of Fame so this is an easy yes. Either way though, Britton clearly belongs. Save: 142 (2nd most in Orioles history) ERA+: 131 2016 season: 0.47 ERA, 803 ERA+ (didn't even know that number was possible), 47 saves and still waiting for Buck Showalter to bring him into a one and done playoff game.
  2. Who are the 2023 Orioles #19 and #20 prospects? Last poll for the prospect as 21-25 and 26-30 will be release shortly afterwards.
  3. https://orioleshangout.com/2023/11/21/orioles-17-prospect-thomas-sosa-of/ The best outfield prospect in rookie ball not named Braylin Tavera, the 18-year old Thomas Sosa fulfilled some of his immense promise with a solid 2023 campaign in the Florida Complex League and comes in as the #17 prospect. Thomas Sosa Pos: RF/CF Bats: L Throws: L Age (as of Jun 30th) : 18 2023 Level: FCL Tools (current/future value) Hit: 25/50 Game Power: 35/50 Raw Power: 45/65 Run: 55/55 Defense: 45/55 Most Likely Future Role: Too early Ceiling: 1st Division starting RF What we know: After an uninspiring professional debut in 2022 in the Dominican Summer League, Sosa showed up a different player in 2023 and put together a very solid FCL season. He upped his walk rate, cut his K rate, doubled is ISO (.101 to .202) all while putting up an impressive .877 OPS. Listed at 6-1, 160 pounds by most publications, Sosa showed up this season at 6-4, 190 and hasn't even completely filled out yet and he's already putting up some of the best exit velocities in the entire Florida Complex League. He came in at 90th percentile for hitting the ball with 102+ exit Velocity and has top end EV of 110 MPH despite being just 18-years old. He barrels the ball well and although there was still a bit of swing and miss in his game (21.7%), it wasn't extreme and he did increase his walk percentage to a respectable 11.9%. His 25.3% line drive rate was the second best in the entire complex league for 18-year olds or younger and his 16.7 HR/FB rate was 7th best. Sosa mashed righthanders (.323/.425/.542/.967 in 113 PAs) but struggled in his small sample size against lefties (.179/.233/.321/.555 in 30 PAs). He did collect two triples though so its too early to consider it anything more than something to watch as he moves up the chain. Defensively Sosa a good right fielder with a plus arm that fits there, but runs well enough and played an effective CF when given a chance. He most likely profiles to a corner outfield overall. What we don't know: Like previous rookie league players on this list, we don't know how he will handle full season ball. Will he improve against lefties? Can hit hit upper level offspeed and velocity? What we think: Sosa was highlighted as a prospect by several scouts and publications as a player who could really take off and he could end up much higher on the list with a good 2024 campaign in Delmarva. He made quite the improvement jump from his DSL to FCL that it's unknown how quickly things could come. He's got 1st round tools and looks like a great value for hi
  4. https://orioleshangout.com/2023/11/21/2023-18-prospect-seth-johnson-rhp/ Back from Tommy John surgery, the 25-year old right-hander got just 10.1 innings under his belt this season but his upside brings him as the #18 prospect. Seth Johnson Throws: RHP Age (as of Jun 30th): 24 2022 Level: FCL/A-/A+/AA Pitches (current/future value) Fastball: 55/55 Curveball: 40/45 Change: 30/40 Slider: 40/50 Command: 40/50 Most Likely Future Role: Reliever Ceiling: Back of rotation starter What we know: Acquired as a key piece in a three-team Trey Mancini trade, this hard throwing righty missed most of the season recovering from Tommy John surgery, but did come back at the end of the year to get his feet wet on the mound again. The 6-1, 200 pound Johnson was drafted by Tampa in the 1st round (40th pick) of the 2019 draft after being converted to a pitcher in College due to his arm strength. Johnson was raw, but had a fastball that touched 99-100 MPH in college. Upon his return last this summer, Johnson's velocity was back to the 94-96 MPH range in short stints though his offspeed pitches clearly were not quite back to pre-injury form. Prior to the injury, his slider was his best strikeout pitch, but it was inconsistent in his return. He was able to miss bats with the pitch low and away on righties or even down and in on lefties. His curveball has similar shape than his slider, but comes in at 72-75 MPH, but is inconsistent though occasionally showing some power. While he has thrown a change in the past, he didn’t throw many the season before his injury or upon his return, and it while it has some fade and drop, he doesn't have great feel for the pitch. The slider works a bit against lefties, but it would be nice to have that pitch that breaks away from them more consistent. What we don’t know: Will the Orioles continue to try and develop him as a starter or will they convert him to relief to get him to the majors quicker? Can he hold up over 150 or more innings? Can he hold his velocity and command up past 80 pitches? What we think: It's hard to get a read on who Johnson really is as a prospect and he gets a bit of a mulligan until he gets a full season under his belt next year. He's already on the 40-man roster so there could be some interest in converting him to relief and see if there is some value to him in that role. He'll pitch at 25-years old and only has 148 innings under his belt so moving him to the pen and see if his stuff plays up might be the best play. The fastball does have good carry and if he can pop up to the high-90s in relief, he has the chance to be a high leverage reliever.
  5. I read it in a report after the draft from someone who apparently had the numbers. I agree though, looking at his arm angle and carry, it definitely looks like the fastball has good IVB.
  6. More logical informed speculation I guess.
  7. Besides his name and his 2022 season, I'm not sure of the hype surrounding Cease or why the Orioles should bid too high on him. When I look at the statcast info, I see a guy who's velocity has fallen off and most of his value is on his slider being good that day. Lefties hit him pretty well because he really doesn't have a changeup and if he's not spotting his slider low and in on them he can get hit hard by them. they put up a .797 OPS against him last year. He's a got decent amount of wear on him and his struggles in July ad August last year are a bit of a concern. Now saying that, he tends to pitch to the scoreboard a bit so can bear down when his team is not scoring much and that's a good quality to have in the playoffs. Now would I rather have him or Kremer in the rotation, I'm taking him, but if I have to give up Kjerstad or Cowser for him, I'm not giving a ton more. If the White Sox want Kjerstad, then perhaps you make that deal but maybe you give them a Trace Bright to go along with him. Same with Cowser. If they want Cowser, then maybe I'd consider giving up a Beavers or they want a pitcher, feel free to have them take a pick from Armbruester, Peek, Pinto, and maybe Bright (who is the best prospect of all of them). If they want a 3rd guy then you trade a Wagner, Haskin, or Bencosme type.
  8. He had a great career. Good guy on top of it all.
  9. Mateo is a handcuff if the Orioles have to trade Ortiz in a deal, so I think that's why he was tendered. Mateo and Holliday would be only major league ready shortstops (And Holliday may not be ready) if Ortiz was traded and say something happened (God forbid) to Gunnar. The Orioles don't want Westburg or Urias having to play shortstop for any length of time.
  10. I think the only chance he makes it is if he tears it up in spring training and there's an injury to Westburg or Ortiz who should both be ahead of him. I do expect one of them to be moved this offseason though, especially with Mateo resigned to be the utility guy.
  11. Because the person who told me worked out and saw both at the same age.
  12. Laziness?? Honestly by the end of the year, I'm not doing much changes besides adding the drafted players onto the list.
  13. Not sure about the lab, but I have him here based off some of the video stuff and after reading all the reports on his background, frame and raw stuff.
  14. No surprises here. I can remember when Gonzalez was considered a guy to watch and even showed up on some top 30 lists. Way too much miss in the bat despite the raw tools. Placencia is cautionary tale of high OBPs with great plate discipline, and a high GB% in the DSL with no power attached. He was one of the weakest professional hitters I've seen in some time. 11/16/23 Aberdeen IronBirds released RHP Shane Davis. 11/16/23 DSL Orioles Black released RHP Joldanny Genao. 11/16/23 DSL Orioles Black released RHP Francisco Crispin. 11/16/23 DSL Orioles Black released CF Héctor Jiménez. 11/16/23 DSL Orioles Black released CF Jonaiker Sandoval. 11/16/23 DSL Orioles Black released RHP Geronimo Rombley. 11/16/23 DSL Orioles Black released RHP Francis Martínez. 11/16/23 DSL Orioles Orange released RHP Jairo Vásquez. 11/16/23 Delmarva Shorebirds released SS Erison Placencia. 11/16/23 FCL Orioles released LHP Noelin Cuevas. 11/16/23 FCL Orioles released OF Luis González. 11/15/23 FCL Orioles released RHP Anthony Bello.
  15. Unless he's absolutely tearing up the FCL next year, it would be out of character for the Orioles to push a 17 year old to Delmarva. Basallo got a full FCL season. As exciting as these guys are, we have to be patient for them to get to full season ball. Next year Liranzo would have been senior in high school if he grew up in the states.
  16. He's more advanced with plate discipline at the same age and maybe a tad behind in raw power. The Orioles think they have a steal in this kid. He could very well be in the top ten next year if he can put up an impressive year in the FCL next year at 17-years old.
  17. Who are the 2023 Orioles #17 and #18 prospects
  18. https://orioleshangout.com/2023/11/20/orioles-2023-15-prospect-joshua-liranzo-3b/ You want upside and ceiling, look no further than Joshua Liranzo who played all of 2023 at 16 years old in the Dominican Summer League showing a mix of plate discipline, power, and solid defense at 3B to come in as the #15 prospect. Joshua Liranzo Pos: 3B Bats: R Throws: R Age (as of Jun 30th) : 16 2023 Level: DSL Tools (current/future value) Hit: 25/60 Game Power: 35/60 Raw Power: 40/60 Run: 50/50 Defense: 40/55 Most Likely Future Role: Too early Ceiling: 1st Division Starting 3rd Baseman, All-star What we know: Signed for just 500k in the 2023 signing period, this hard hitting third baseman looks like the standout of the class so far. Despite being one of the youngest players in the league and never facing a pitcher younger than him and after a slow start when he may have been pressing, the 6-foot-3 really took off and by the end of the year was one of the team's best hitters. He already hits the ball as hard as anyone on the team and after a slow start, he slashed .304/.463./511/.974 with four home runs, five doubles, a triple, and a fantastic 21 BB to 23 K ratio over 121 PAs. His 116 wRC+, .397 WOBA and 21.1% line drive percentage all speak to his potential. While he has pull power now, as he fills out it's expected that he will have power to all fields. One scout believes he's better than Fernando Tatis Jr. was at the same age. He works out with major leaguers and and that same scout believes he could very well be the next Samuel Basallo when it comes to blowing up on the prospects scene. Defensively Liranzo moves well and has a plus arm at third base and should be a solid defender there with a chance to become very, very good. He's an average runner but stealing bases won't be part of his game at upper levels. What we don't know: Obviously we don't know a lot because he's so young and so far away. Will he continue to grow? How will he adjust to full season ball? What we think: The way Liranzo finished off his first professional season along with the tools he brings to the field at such a young age gives him a tremendous ceiling. His ability to make adjustments mid-season suggests good aptitude to learn, and combined with his above average strike zone judgement, suggests he's got a chance to be pretty special. He'll most likely play in the FCL next year as a 17-year old.
  19. https://orioleshangout.com/2023/11/20/orioles-2023-16-prospect-jackson-baumeister-rhp/ A draft eligible sophomore out of Florida State University nabbed by the Orioles in the 2nd round pick of 2023 draft, Baumeister is all about projection and comes in as the #16 prospect. Jackson Baumeister Throws: Right Age (as of Jun 30th) : 20 2023 Level: NCAA (Did not pitch professionally) Pitches (current/future value) Fastball: 55/60 Slider: 35/45 Change: 40/50 Curveball: 45/50 Command: 35/45 Most Likely Future Role: 4th/5th starter or high leverage reliever Ceiling: Mid-rotation starter Draft video 2023 Highlights What we know: A draft eligible sophomore who turned 21 a few days before the draft, the Orioles took the 6-foot-4 225 pounder mostly on the great frame, a good carry fastball that has reached 97-98 mph early in outings, and two different breaking balls with promise. With the leverage of going back to be the Friday night starter in 2024, Baumeister was able to command an overslot $1,605,100 bonus in a $1,243,300 second round slot. Outside of his strike out numbers (12.4 K/9), Baumeister's stats weren't all that impressive at Florida State (5.09 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 9.0 H/9, and 3.8 BB/9), but the Orioles believe he wasn't taught how to use his stuff well and believe they can maximize his raw stuff. On top of it, he's a fairly recent convert to pitching (converted his senior year of high school) and with only 96.1 college innings under his belt, he's considered a "low-milage" pitcher. Lastly, he lands a bit closed on his front foot often and straightening that out can add some additional velocity as well. The fastball reportedly has good induced vertical break (IVB) which is a fancy way of saying it has good carry. He sat 92-95 MPH in games and would touch 97-98 at times, but the Orioles did not think he used it enough up in the zone in college and would have been more effective doing so. He spins two different breaking balls, a traditional curveball and more of a sweepy slider. Both can miss bats, but both are inconsistent offerings that will need work to command more often. He will flash a decent change on occasion but it's another offering that will need some shaping. Not only does he land a bit closed, but he also has a little bit of a head whack and some effort to the delivery so there are some of think he may be better in relief long term. What we don’t know: After being used in relief only in his Freshman year, he only has one season of starting under his belt so his ability to command his pitches and maintain his velocity deep into games is still unknown. We know the Orioles will have him use his fastball more up in the zone, but can he command it up there? Can he command his offspeed pitches more consistently and will the change develop in order for him to defend himself against lefties? Can he hold up to 180 innings one day when he's never thrown more than 69 innings? What we think: Baumeister is projectable prospect with upside, but he definitely has reliever risk to him. The Orioles choose not to start him back up after being off so long after his college season (something they did with most of their drafted pitchers this year with draft being so late). It will be interesting to see if the Orioles start him straight into High-A (Aberdeen) or get his feet wet in Delmarva first. Either way, he's an intriguing arm to follow in 2024.
  20. Thanks. I think it's just unfair to put a Hall of Fame ceiling on a young player no matter how good he is currently. Maybe I put one of Machado? Can't really remember, but if I'm putting 70 or more ceilings on guys they have HoF possibilities.
  21. Are you talking now of future? Remember, I take things into consideration like the consistency of the pitch and ability to throw it for strikes when doing the grades. Povich well flash you plus pitches with his sweeper, curve and change, but not enough to think they will end up there or are there yet.
  22. I typically don't do them over the weekend but wanted to get the top 20 out before Thanksgiving.
  23. Who are the 2023 Orioles #15 and #16 prospects?
  24. https://orioleshangout.com/2023/11/19/orioles-2023-14-prospect-luis-de-leon-lhp/ At just 20-years old and with just 26.1 innings above rookie ball, Luis De Leon comes in as the #14 prospect based on perhaps the highest ceiling of any pitcher in the Orioles system. Luis De Leon Throws: Left Age (as of Jun 30th) : 20 2023 Level: FCL/A Pitches (current/future value) Fastball: 50/70 Slider: 40/55 Change: 40/50 Command: 35/50 Most Likely Future Role: Too early Ceiling: Top of Rotation starter 2023 Highlights What we know: Quite simply, there is no pitcher in the minor league system with a higher ceiling then this 20-year old Dominican. De Leon is a 6-foot-3 lefty with plenty of room to fill out his frame who already possesses a mid-90s (94-95 mph) bowling ball of a fastball that has touched 98 MPH this season. His fastball does lose some velocity later in his outings, but still sits 92-93 MPH. He also brings a solid average slider to the mound that can be tough on lefties ,though it's horizontal movement can be inconsistent at times and sometimes backs up. The southpaw has pretty good feel for a changeup that also flashes average with good fade and drop at times, though he leaves it up a bit in the strike zone a little more than he would like. The slider is a bit ahead of the changeup currently, but they both could develop into at least average major league pitches He's an uncomfortable at bat for any hitter and put up the best ground ball % (68.3% overall, but was an unbelievable 73.4% in his 26.1 A ball innings with Delmarva) in the organization. Between the FCL and Delmarva (Low-A), batters slashed just .190/.290/.232/.523 with Carolina League batters hitting just .177 off him with a ridiculous 6.7% line drive rate. His overall 21.4% swinging strike percentage was the best in the system for anyone who pitched high than the rookie ball though that did drop to a respectable 14.1% in A ball. He's a bit of a slinger with a low 3/4 delivery that helps his fastball play up even more than it's already plus velocity. While he's a ground ball inducing machine who also misses bats, his downside is a lack of command that saw him put up a 5.47 BB/9 in A ball, but some of that was from two bad appearances in September. The good news is that he really doesn't throw all that many uncompetitive pitches and while he misses too much, he doesn't miss by a lot. He's a young man who is still growing into his body and part of that may be what is leading to the inconsistent command. Like some other young pitchers, he can let a bad call affect him and allow it to snowball his inning a bit, so controlling those emotions will be something he'll need to improve as well. What we don’t know: Can he find more consistency with throwing quality strikes? Can he go deeper into games? The Orioles never let him throw more than 65 pitches with Delmarva, but were probably treating him a bit cautious since he only threw 24 inning last year in the DSL. Either way, we don't if he can maintain his velocity up to 100 pitches or not and the fact it trails off to the 92-93 MPH range when he never threw more than 65 pitches means it's still up in the air whether he can stick as a starter. What we think: De Leon was put on our radar last year despite the less than stellar stats in the Dominican Summer League and after seeing his this year we can see why. While this might be an aggressive position to put him on the list, the fact remains that he has the best ceiling of any current pitcher in the system if he fully fills out, is able to maintain or even adds to his velocity, and improves his command. There are a ton of unknowns, but if he's stays healthy, he's an electric pitcher to watch in 2024. He'll most likely start the year back in Delmarva where the
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