Tony-OH

https://orioleshangout.com/2023/11/19/orioles-2023-13-prospect-cade-povich-lhp/ Inconsistent is the word that probably best describes this 23-year old left-handed starter, but when he was good, he flashed potential of a mid-rotation starter and comes in as the #13 prospect. Cade Povich Throws: Left Age (as of Jun 30th) : 23 2023 Level: AA/AAA Pitches (current/future value) Fastball: 50/55 Cutter: 45/50 Sweeper: 45/50 Change: 45/50 Curveball: 40/45 Command: 40/45 9/16 -Best AAA start, 6 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 2BB, 8 K Last AAA start of the season Most Likely Future Role: 4th/5th starter Ceiling: Mid-rotation starter 2023 Highlights What we know: When he's commanding the baseball, he's one of the best pitching prospect in the system who can flash three solid major league average offerings including a high spin rate fastball that gets a lot of swing and miss up in the zone despite averagish velocity (91-94, t95-96). The issue is he's still searching for consistency from start to start and just walks too many hitters. The 23-year old southpaw started off in Bowie alternating good and bad starts over his first six outings before going into a five start funk in mid-May, early June where he put up an ugly 8.47 ERA with batters slashing .325/.426/.554/.980 in five starts. He broke out of that with his best start of his career against Richmond when he went seven innings, allowing just one hit, no walks, and striking out a career high 13 batters. Unfortunately he had two more bad starts before righting himself to earn a promotion to AAA in late July. In AAA, he had two good starts out of three before bottoming out on August 16th when he allowed nine earned runs on seven hits and two walks in just an innings and two-thirds of work. He finished strong though over his last six starts pitching to a 3.26 ERA, with 40 strike outs and 20 walks while holding batters to a .167/.300/.241/.541 slash over 30.1 innings. The 6-3 hurler throws five distinct pitches and it could be part off the reason why he's so inconsistent. His sweeper has really good movement but he struggles to throw it for strikes consistently. the same can be said for the curveball which he buries in the dirt a lot to try and induce chase. If he could land these pitches for strikes more often he will have a better chance of keeping hitters off his fastball. The change will flash average to even plus at times with nice fade and drop and induces swings and misses from right-handers. What we don’t know: Can he find more consistency with throwing strikes with his offspeed pitches? Can he find the consistency from start to start? He'll pitch at 24-years old next year and will have two full offseasons under the Orioles program so the hope is he will find a way to keep his mechanics on track and find the zone more. What we think: Povich is an interesting pitcher because the quality of stuff and ability to go deep into games makes him an intriguing starting pitching prospect. His walk rate climbed to a career high (14.7%/5.8 BB/9) and his strikeouts fell to a career low (10.5 K/9) in his 10 AAA starts, but he held AAA batters to just a .194/.315/.327/.642 slash line. If he can decrease the walks, he could very well be an option for the Orioles in 2024 at some point if they have need. If he puts it all together though he has a chance to become a staple in the Orioles rotation for years to come.

That was Luis Jimenez after the 2002 season and while he did flame out, he actually did get 18 major league PAs and slashed .289/.367/.470/.837 in 1462 AAA PAs. So I might have gotten a little too excited over the bat when I went down and saw him in Bluefield, but he wasn't quite a big a miss as you suggested. Jimenez was a product of the Orioles system when they had no clue how to develop a prospect, especially an international prospect from Venezuela. I pretty sure the guy had some depression issues and even when he was killing it at Bluefield, he was the most depressed professional player I ever interviewed (through an interpreter). The Orioles quickly gave up on him (I believe for an off field issue if I remember correctly) and then brought him back years later and he killed it at Bowie too, but he had no position. He was basically Calvin Pickering but with less game power. BTW, look at that system when I named him #1: 2002 Orioles Farm system stats Erik Bedard should have been the #1 prospects in the system and Jim Johnson #2.

It's hard sometimes to comp guys at this age and experience level, but if I had to, I'd say Austin Hays could be a decent comp though he may have a better chance to stick in CF than Hays did.

I've seen him hit velocity just fine. That's not an issue for him. Saying that, I didn't see him face a lot of high velocity guys this year. I know I've seen him turn on a 95+ fastballs on the past, and he doesn't get taken up the ladder all that much from what I've observed. He's got plenty of bat speed and hand/wrist quickness so it should be an issue.

Norby and Ortiz are the two players that are completely ready for the major leagues although a case could be made for Norby to get exclusive left field playing time in AAA in order for him to gain that experience. Saying that, I also think he, Ortiz, and Westburg all are significant trade chips and one or several of them will most likely be dealt this offseason.

Nothing wrong with the young man wanting to still be a starter, afterall, the big money is about being a starting pitcher. He's got the stuff to compete as a starter for sure, but his health, command record, and ability to get a ground ball continues to scream out reliever. Would be the worse thing in the world to have him stretch out as a starter once again this spring? Probably not, but I still think his best role at the big league level will be as a high leverage reliever. He could very well be the closer next year at some point.

Somebody watched two highlight plays and came up with that assessment of Norby's defense! lol Makes me not want to pay attention to anything they else post.

Thanks. Not sure how that messed up in a cut and paste, but I corrected it.

Who are the 2023 Orioles #13 and #14 prospects?

https://orioleshangout.com/2023/11/18/orioles-2023-12-prospect-braylin-tavera-cf/ Signed for $1.7 million during the 2022 international signing period, Braylin Tavera made the jump to the Florida Complex League in 2023 and flashed the five tools that makes him the #12 prospect. Braylin Tavera Pos: CF Bats: R Throws: R Age (as of Jun 30th) : 18 2023 Level: FCL Tools (current/future value) Hit: 25/50 Game Power: 30/50 Raw Power: 30/55 Run: 60/60 Defense: 45/60 Most Likely Future Role: Too Early Ceiling: 1st Division Center Fielder What we know: The 18-year old Dominican showed off his five tools down in the complex league despite a few nagging injuries that lost him some playing time. The right-handed hitter made strides in many areas including more than doubling his ISO (.076 to .159), cutting his K% (25.4% to 16.5%), cutting his Swinging Strike % (26.8% to 16.5%) while increasing his WOBA (.385 to .395) and OPS (.730 to .812) from his DSL debut last year. His 22 to 23 BB to K ratio showed an ability to control the strike zone and his 13 SBs in 35 games flashed his speed and base stealing abilities though he did get caught five times. As one of the youngest players in the league, he only had two PAs against pitchers younger than him. Defensively, Tavera has good range, a solid average arm, and reportedly shows enough speed and instincts to be able to stay there as he moves up the chain. What we don't know: Obviously there are a lot of unknowns with him being so far away from the major leagues. How will he handle the jump to full season ball next year? Can he stay healthy all year? Will his power take another step forward? What we think: He'll play all of 2024 at 19-years old and should start the year in A-ball (Delmarva). He outperformed Samuel Basallo in the complex league (.812 OPS to .774 with a much better K-BB ratio) but was six months older at the same time. Tavera has an above average eye at the plate and that should help him in his jump to full season ball next season, but don't expect the same Basallo ascension.

https://orioleshangout.com/2023/11/18/orioles-2023-11-prospect-connor-norby-2b/ The Orioles 2nd round pick in the 2021 draft, Norby comes in as the #11 prospect after a good offensive season in AAA, but an up and down season defensively. Connor Norby Pos: 2B Bats: R Throws: R Age (as of Jun 30th) : 23 2023 Level: AAA Tools (current/future value) Hit: 45/50 Game Power: 50/55 Raw Power: 55/55 Run: 50/50 Defense: 40/45 2023 Highlights Most Likely Future Role: Everyday Left fielder or Second baseman Ceiling: 1st Division Left fielder or 2nd Division Second baseman What we know: Norby has solidified himself as a bat first prospect with a solid hit tool with above average power. Only Heston Kjerstad's 34.7% line drive rate was higher than Norby's 27.5% in AAA. The 23-year old drives the ball to all fields and although his 14.7% HR/FB% was the lowest of his career, he collected a career high 40 doubles to go along with his 21 homers. Playing in AAA all season, Norby set an affiliate record with a 164 hits. He seems to be slow starter who heats up with the weather. After slashing just .265/.311/.347/.658 with home runs in 106 April PAs, he slashed .298/.369/.515/.884 from May to the end of the season. He showed he was completely major league ready by September when he slashed .313/.414/.590/1.005 with 5 homers, 14 BBs, and 15Ks in 99 PAs. Norby will chase sliders away on occasion, and while he doesn't have elite bat speed, he makes adjustments during games and at bats. His bat is major league ready. He does have some miss in his swing, but not at an extreme rate (21.6 K%). He'll draw some walks, but it won't be a huge part of his offensive game. Defensively, he did improve some at second base, but he's still a below average defender on the dirt. He did turn the double play better and he's got average second base arm strength but his accuracy is not always there especially when he has to throw hard on a play. He gets caught in short hops too often he seems to occasionally lose focus on making simple catches or pop ups.. He committed 16 errors this year in just 105 games at second base. By September, the Orioles were splitting his time between left field and second base, and while he looks inexperienced in the outfield with some awkward routes and catches, he was a gamer out there and made several diving catches. He did make this nice play https://www.mlb.com/video/connor-norby-s-diving-catch?q=norby&cp=CMS_FIRST&qt=FREETEXT&p=0 . He's got the speed to play out there and with more experience, he could turn into an average defensive outfielder. What we don't know: Norby's bat is major league ready, but where does he play defensively? The Orioles are stacked at second base with much better defenders, so if he stays in the organization, his best chance at getting everyday PAs is in left field, but even there he's got to beat out Austin Hays and Colton Cowser currently. What we think: While Norby is major league ready offensively, his path to every day PAs with the Orioles looks blocked at his current positions. He's a prime candidate to be traded this offseason and without a series of trades of players ahead of him, he'll be back in AAA. He's put up a .295/.362/.498/.860 slash line in 675 AAA PAs now. There's nothing left for his bat to prove.

We're still talking 2025, right? My ideal infield starting 2025 would be Mayo, Gunnar, Holliday, and Basallo at 1B. How's that? I don't think he's a bad defensive catcher, but I don't want his catching to get in the way of the bat. He didn't wear down at all last year at 18/19 years old, but as he gets older, it will be tough to do all that up and down on the legs, some perhaps converting him more or less to 1B would allow his special bat to be more special.

I think his size will ultimately hold him back a bit, but he definitely improved last year and I didn't see a ton of mistakes. He very well could end up an average defensive catcher and I might have shot low with the 45 grade, but I do think as he gets older he'll become less flexible and that will make popping up and moving side to side much harder.

Well, you got pretty much all the names right so hard to argue too much with your selections. I could maybe see Kjerstad at 1B and Beavers or Horvath in RF. I think Westburg and or Ortiz are traded this offseason.

I heard Law on 105.7 last week and man, he really does like to poo-poo the organization anytime he can. I don't think he necessarily changes his scouting reports on players because of it, but he clearly does not like Elias and company.

Who are the 2023 Orioles #11 and #12 prospects?

I've become a believer that Mayo can play 3B at the major league level so he can play there or 1B. I'd really like to know that Kjerstad is working hard this offseason on his defense at 1B. I do think his profile works best there, but I don't necessarily think he's terrible in RF. Basallo could be a very good handcuff at catcher with Adley. Together they would share catcher and DH. Basallo is a good athlete though so I do think with more work at first base that could be an option as well.

Yep, I'm in the same boat overall. That's why I look at them all. I honestly prefer the "raw data" like the jump components and arm strength numbers for outfielders.

Basallo is just an exciting player to watch because of the immense power. You know, chicks dig the longball, but so does everyone else! If Basallo hits his ceiling, he very well may end up the more dynamic offensive player, but let's not get too down on Holliday. We're talking about a 19 year old kid that put up a .442 OBP in 581 PAs across 4 levels of the minor league system. Holliday doesn't really wow you with the big home runs, and very well may never end up a big power guy, but he's going to be an absolute OBP machine and has enough speed to be a really good leadoff hitter. He's good enough defensively too up the middle and I expect him to get better. So while it's easy to gush over Basallo's bat, and rightfully so, Holliday is the #1 overall for me because of his overall game and the fact he's already in AAA. Now if Basallo comes back next season is continues to kill it and improves like he did this year, then we can have that conversation at this time next year.

Thanks for the info. dWAR is the least accurate of the defensive metrics in my opinion. It's not that it's totally off, just that I much rather have the statcast data because that is not subjective. Saying that, I do have some questions about the accuracy of infielder statcast data. I think it does a much better job in the outfield, or at least in matching up with Fangraph's defensive metrics and the eye test.

That is hilarious because he did get in what seemed to be two sentences while watching that bomb fly. BTW, he it the ball so far that statcast couldn't track it. It states the home run was 325 ft LOL. He hit it at 106.8 MPH and you can see the people chasing it behind the scoreboard. If that ball was less than 450 feet I would be surprised.

Mayo backspins the ball which give him that natural loft. Sure, the wall could take a few like it will for any hitter, but I don't see it being an issue. When he first arrived in AAA he was getting under balls more to RF and flying out, but starting driving them more later in the year when he got hot. He certainly has the power to hit the ball out of all fields.

I have to be honest, I've never seen a bat with as much promise as his in the 27 years I've been scouting the Orioles minor league system. His power is so easy, his strike zone judgement jumped so quickly, and even his ability to pick up spin is just very, very impressive. It would not surprise me if Basallo is not the #1 prospect on this list next year, even if Holliday is still eligible. I truly thought about jumping him to #1, but ultimately, Holliday has already had success at the upper levels so his risk factor is a bit lower. Ceiling wise though, Basallo is #1 on this list.

https://orioleshangout.com/2023/11/17/orioles-2023-1-prospect-jackson-holliday-ss-2b/ The first overall selection in the 2022 draft by the Orioles, Jackson Holliday flew through the minor league systems at just 19-year old, and is widely considered across baseball as the top prospect in all of baseball. Jackson Holliday Pos: SS/2B Bats: L Throws: R Age (as of Jun 30th) : 19 2023 Levels: A/A+/AA/AAA Tools (current/future value) Hit: 45/70 Game Power: 40/55 Raw Power: 40/60 Run: 55/55 Defense: 45/55 Most Likely Future Role: Starting 1st Division SS or 2B Ceiling: 1st Division Starting SS, multiple All-Star appearances 2023 Highlights 2023 Stats What we know: The 1st overall pick in the 2022 draft, this 19-year old left-handed-hitting shortstop has the making of a future superstar, and that future may begin at the major league level sooner than later. Although not as physical as say a Gunnar Henderson or Manny Machado at 19, he keeps his body under control in all aspects of the game and still has lots of room to grow into more strength. Went from Low A-ball to AAA in his first full minor league season as a 19-year old, and never looked out of place among the older competition. Jackson brings 70 grade bat to ball skills with a very advance feel for hitting at a very young baseball age. He can drive the ball to all fields, even hitting multiple oppo home runs, but was more of a line drive hitter. He tends to drift out of the box a bit at times and struggles at times to hit left-handed breaking balls. That upper body leaking suggests there's more power in the bat. Overall though, he picks up spin well and will make in game adjustments. He's got a well above average control of the strike zone and although he has some miss in his swing at times, especially when it gets a bit long, he makes good adjustments and battles with two strikes. Defensively, Jackson has an average arm at shortstop and average range, though he doesn't show that explosive quickness team may prefer at shortstop. His hands are solid and should get better as he matures. At just 19-years old, he's hasn't grown into his man strength so the arm and quickness could still improve. As of now, he's behind Gunnar Henderson and Joey Ortiz defensively at SS but that could change with some more physicality that comes with age. He runs well, and although he’s not a burner, he’s an above average runner with a good aptitude to steal bases. He may not be a big time stolen base threat at the major league level, but should be able to steal 15-20 bases a season. Not surprisingly after growing up in major league clubhouses, he has off the charts baseball aptitude, is a hard worker, and by all reports, is a humble young man who gets along well with his teammates. What we don’t know: Holliday is going to be a major leaguer but the question is when? Mike Elias has stated he will get an opportunity to win a job at major league camp next spring, but the Orioles typically like to get their top prospects at least 200+ PAs in AAA before bringing them up. Defensively, he has some work to do at SS and while he shows solid average quickness, he doesn't have the plus arm and quickness most teams want at the SS position. Without some improvements as he grows into his man strength, his best position might be at 2B at the major league level if he stays on the dirt. What we think: While Jackson doesn't bring top of the chart power and speed to his tools, his 70, maybe 75 hit tool will be his carrying tool at the major league level. He's going to hit for average, draw walks, and should fill out more to give him 20-30 home run power at the major league level. While he may never be a gold glove candidate at SS, he should be able to be a solid average defensive SS and if he moves to 2B, he could be a well above average fielder. With the Orioles currently stacked with second base and shortstops, they can take it a bit slow and allow him to physically mature in AAA next year if there is not an immediate need. We could see the Orioles giving him the Gunnar Henderson treatment by bringing him up late in August so he's available for a playoff roster, but not giving him enough PAs to lose his rookie status for 2025. Some Action Shots by Patrick Cavey: Taken by Patrick Cavey Taken by Patrick Cavey Taken by Patrick Cavey

https://orioleshangout.com/2023/11/17/orioles-2023-2-prospect-samuel-basallo-c/ No prospect improved his prospect status as much as this hulking left-handed hitting catcher did during the 2023 campaign. With unlimited potential with the bat, Basallo brings top of the chart power grades to a vastly improved hit tool and has easily become one of the best prospects in all of baseball. Samuel Basallo Pos: C Bats: L Throws: R Age (as of Jun 30th) : 18 2023 Level: A/A+/AA Tools (current/future value) Hit: 40/60 Game Power: 50/70 Raw Power: 65/80 Run: 45/40 Defense: 35/45 at C 35/50 at 1B Most Likely Future Role: 1st Division Starting Catcher/First baseman/DH Ceiling: 1st Division Starting Catcher/First Base/DH, multiple times All-Star 2023 Highlight Reel What we know: No prospect made more of a jump in prospects status during the 2023 season then this hulking left-handed hitting catcher. Laughably listed at 6-3, 180 pounds by most publications, Basallo is every bit of 6-foot-5 and probably nearing 230-240 pounds already and he still could be growing. Basallo came into his own offensively while playing most of the season at 18-years old. He has well above average barrel rates and exit velocities (at least one at 110 MPH) and hit some of the most prestigious home runs hit by any Orioles minor leaguer including one home run that went 454 foot to CF. Basallo has power to all fields and hit one of the most impressive oppo laser home runs you will see. When he hits home runs, they are typically the no-doubter kind. And let's not forget, he spent most of the season at 18-years old so he hasn't even grown into his man strength yet. But it wasn't just his home runs that was impressive. He his swinging strike rate significantly dropped and actually went down as the season progressed despite moving up the chain. His strike out rate dropped and his walk rate improved as pitchers had to start respecting his power. He even slashed .306/.385/.459/.844 in 96 PAs against left-handers. How good was he by the end of the year? Over his last 36 games of the season, he slashed .355/.467/.686/1.152 with 9 doubles, 3 triples, 8 home runs, 26 walks and 24 strike outs over 150 PAs and ended the year in AA. Defensively, Basallo improved behind the plate with his receiving, blocking and cut his passed balls down as well. Despite his large size, his plus plus arm allows for him to overcome a bit of a slow transfer and he nailed an above average 33% of the runners attempting to steal. Respecting his need to stay fresh with the bat, the Orioles only caught him 68 times out of 114 games played. He started a career high 28 games at first base and while he made five errors, he showed good movement and the ability to pick balls at times despite his limited experience at the position. He even made a complete split during a stretch attempt to nab a runner on a close play. While stealing bases is not going to be part of his game, he did manage to steal 12 bases and collected 7 triples on the season, so he's no base clogger out there. He's a very hard worker who has goals of not just being the best Orioles player of all-time, but the best player of all-time. Despite his lofty goals, he's an affable player who plays with an infectious youthful game who is a fun player to watch. What we don't know: How big will he get and will the bat be so special that the Orioles may want to keep him from wearing down behind the plate? Basallo is already a very large human being while there are 6-foot-5 catchers in the majors, none of them have the bat potential that Basallo brings to the plate. While he hit well in his small sample size in AA, he'll still need to show he can hit upper level offspeed pitches though there's no indications he won't be able to do so. What we think: Honestly, Basallo has as much upside with the bat as any player in the entire Orioles system, including the major leagues. We even considered him as the #1 prospect on this list and very well may the #1b prospect. It's hard to find too much fault with Basallo after his 2023 season. He'll most likely start 2023 as a 19-year old in AA and if he continues his improvement should end his season in AAA. He very well could be in the running for a major league job by 2025 at the age of 20-years old.