Tony-OH

It's a baseball thing that predates Hyde for sure. For as long as I can remember baseball players give each other nicknames. Personally I don't use them because I'm not in the clubhouse and part of the team. And some are absolutely cringeworthy and forced.

I really don't disagree with you and was not trying to indicate Holt was a "problem" per se with Rodriguez. But what was clear was that he wasn't the solution for him either.

I 100% believe that could be an issue that keeps him down this year, especially if they don't think he's ready to win it (he's not). If he has a better chance of winning it and gaining an extra pick, and there is not a big need for him (say Mayo/Henderson/Ortiz or Westburg hold down the infield in 2024). My guess is he gets the Gunnar treatment and comes up in late August. It just makes sense for the team in the long run unless there is a need. Right now, barring any moves, I don't see a need for Holliday in 2024 with the Orioles and he could use more work on defense and to get stronger as he grows into his man strength.

It's always interesting to see how different systems come up with different answers for players defensively. - Fangraphs has Gunnar as a well above average SS (10 defensive runs saved) and he comes up as a 13.8 UZR/150 at SS as well. UZR says he gets most of that from his range. - OAA has have as average (O OAA). Interestingly, they have -2 OAA going to his lateral to his right which usually is an indication of arm strength, but Gunnar's 84th percentile arm strength would suggest otherwise. Gunnar was 2 OAA coming in on balls which is typically achieved by SS's with good quickness. - BBRef has him as a 2.0 dWAR players though it's not broken down between positions. So looking at all the metrics, I do think Gunnar is an above average defender at SS at 22-years old. Since most of his good scores seem to come from range and quickness, how quickly will that degrade as a gets older? Gunnar was listed at 6-3, 220 already at 22-years old. He carries that 220 well so it's not like he has weight to lose and if anything, he's going to gain weight. So while I can easily prove that Gunnar was an above average defensive shortstop last year, is he the best defensive SS moving forward or at least the best combination of bat and fielding at SS in 2024 and beyond near term? I'm 100% fine with him being a SS next year, especially if that means they give 3B to Mayo. This is one reason why I think Holliday will spend most if not all of 2024 in AAA at SS. It allows Holliday to improve his defensive abilities at SS, gives the Orioles one more year of control (I would not be surprised to see him get the Gunnar Henderson treatment where they give him enough PAs to not lose his rookie status), and breaks up Holliday from Henderson for free agency by two years.

I assume you mean he would no longer qualify because he would have been given too many major league PAs already vs he's not good enough?

I don't know exactly, but reading the tea leaves here a bit, perhaps they want Holt to use his skills with the younger prospects coming up and feel that now guys are a bit established and may not benefit as much. Reading that also may indicate that Holt may be better at developing than sustaining. I honestly don't know, but the fact he was moved to the director of pitcher rather than fired indicates to me they just think he's more valuable in the other role. I thought Gibson's comments were interesting as well. He said he thought everyone had his back but maybe not everyone liked him. The only situation that jumps out to me is how Grayson Rodriguez failed so miserably during his first stint with the Orioles, and seemed to get fixed in AAA under Ramsey. Overall though with pitchers like McDermott, Povich, DeLeon, and Baumeister having high ceiling arms, along with the fact the Orioles drafted more arms in the top ten rounds, maybe they just want him to focused on development rather than sustaining the arms that have arrived?

You may have been missing the exact order, but I know you follow along closely enough to have the basic names right. But yes, the writeups are always more important than any rankings because honestly, 1-5 this year could have been the #1 prospect in the organization in many other years in the past.

His home runs go so far typically that Walltimore should not affect him unless it somehow gets in his head like it did with Mountcastle. Personally I think Mayo is very mentally tough and has shown an above average knowledge of what pitchers are trying to do to him and then make adjustments.

Plus you would assume lineups would go right-handed heavy against him allowing the Great wall of Baltimore to do it's job.

I could build a case for both honestly.

Maybe I have a surprise? Or maybe I just needed to finish off the polls?

I'll be honest, I went back and forth on this one and ultimately went with Basallo because at the same age he had already had a taste of AA and yet to have a blip of issues at new levels.

Who are the 2023 Orioles #1 and #2 prospects?

https://orioleshangout.com/2023/11/16/orioles-2023-3-prospect-coby-mayo-3b/ Huge breakout year saw this 21-year old start the year tearing up AA only to finish the year tearing up AAA to become the Orioles #3 overall prospect. Coby Mayo Pos: Third baseman Bats: R Throws: R Age (as of Jun 30th) : 21 2023 Level: AA/AAA Tools (current/future value) Hit: 45/55 Game Power: 50/60 Raw Power: 60/70 Run: 45/40 Defense: 40/45 Most Likely Future Role: 1st Division Starting 3rd Baseman/1st Baseman Ceiling: 1st division starting third baseman, occasional All-Star 2023 Highlights What we know: The first thing you have to realize is this would have been Mayo's junior draft year and had he developed in college like he did in the pros, it's not hard to imagine him being the 1-1 pick in the 2023 draft. Instead in he's already put up a 124 wRC+ in 227 AAA PAs, and that was after a slow start. Mayo made great strides in all aspects of hitting putting up a combined .427 WOBA and a 156 wRC+ between AA and AAA. He started the year just absolutely destroying AA pitching for a .449 wOBA and 178 wRC+ with career high 14.7% BB rate to go along with a respectable 24.8% K rate while putting up a .296 ISO. His AA season included a .307/.424/.603/1.026 slash line highlighted by 30 doubles and 16 home runs in just 347 PAs before earning a promotion to AAA. He needed an adjustment period in AAA as the more mature pitchers gave him a assortment of breaking balls that he struggled with at times, slashing just .194/.284/.398/.682 in his first 29 games over 109 PAs. Mayo though not only made the adjustments, he absolutely dominated AAA pitching over the last 37 games slashing .341/.480/.652/1.131 with 9 doubles, 11 homers and an extremely impressive 32 BB - 37 K ratio over 171 PAs. Mayo is able to make these adjustments because an extremely smart hitter who studies what pitchers are trying to do to him. He can make not only in game adjustments, but will make in at bat adjustments at times and rarely chased once he got comfortable putting up a very respectable 10.3 swing strike rate over the season. He doesn't miss many mistakes and will make pitchers work by getting into many deep counts looking for his pitch to do damage on. While he's still a bit of a pull hitter, he has power to all fields and can hit a ball out of any ball park with his plus raw power and improving game power. His 20.1% FB/HR ratio was second only to Jud Fabian in the organization, and combined with his low 10.3% swinging strike percentage makes that an exciting combination. Defensively, Mayo also made strides at third base where he worked on moving closer to the hitter and working on a drop step vs positioning himself so deep. This allowed him to come in on balls more effectively and the drop step allowed him to set his feet under him better and use his plus plus arm to throw out runners. Mayo's throwing accuracy also improved this season with the better footwork and a slightly lowered arm angle though he can still struggle at time when moving to his left. Listed at 6-5, 230 the concern remains whether he will eventually end up too big to play an effective 3B, but for now, he's shown enough improvements that he can play 3B effectively if a team is going to live with a few more errors then some would like. In his limited play at first base, Mayo took well to the position and looks to be a legitimate option there, though he would waste his plus plus arm. He's an average to slightly below average runner so he's not base clogger, but he will slow with age due to his size. He's athletic enough and moves well once he get going. What we don't know: Mayo has needed to adjust to pretty much every level so it's reasonable to expect he'll need an adjustment period at the major league level as well. With a team that should be competing for another AL East crown, will the Orioles be patient enough to give those PAs and how fast can he make that adjustment. Defensively, the question also exists where will he play since the Orioles have several better defensive options at 3B including Gunnar Henderson and Joey Ortiz and with Ryan Mountcastle and Ryan O'Hearn over at 1B barring any trades this off season. What we think: Mayo would be the #1 prospect in many other organizations and is absolutely an impact positional prospect. After the heater he was on at the end of the 2023 season, he should get an opportunity to win a job with the Orioles next spring or shortly there after if Elias chooses to keep him down a bit longer to add to his 267 AAA PAs. Mayo is going to end up a middle of the order hitter in a major league lineup for years to come.

https://orioleshangout.com/2023/11/16/2023-4-prospect-heston-kjerstad-rf-1b/ The 24-year old outfielder went from AA to the major leagues this season with a solid offensive season. That offensive potential sees him come in as the #4 prospect in the system. Heston Kjerstad Pos: OF Bats: L Throws: R Age (as of Jun 30th) : 24 2023 Level: AA/AAA/MAJ Tools (current/future value) Hit: 45/50 Game Power: 45/60 Raw Power: 65/65 Run: 50/45 Defense: 40/45 Most Likely Future Role: Starting right fielder Ceiling: 1st Division Starting right fielder What we know: The Orioles 1st pick (2nd overall) in the 2020 made his way from AA to the major league in his second full professional season. The 24-year old left-handed hitting outfielder's bat will be his calling card and he had quite a season. Between Bowie (AA) and Norfolk, he hit collected 58 extra base hits including 21 home runs while slashing .303/.376/.529 in 543 PAs. Kjerstad was known for making consistent hard contact putting up a 10% barrel rate, and an 89.5 MPH average exit velocity while making solid contact with 74% Contact and 87% ZCon rates. His 34.7% line drive rate at AAA was heads and shoulders better than anyone in the system. In his 33 major league PAs, he had a 92.5 EV, 107.6 max EV, and 55% hard hit rate. His first major league hit was a 418 foot home run to right field. He showed no platoon difference in the minors this season, but only received one PA vs left-handers at the major league level. Kjerstad has no issue with hitting velocity, but can struggle with the down and in sliders at times though he's shown the ability to make adjustments. There is very little doubt his bat will play at the major league level. Defensively, Kjerstad is below average in right field who can struggle at times with his jumps and routes. While he has average footspeed when he gets going, he doesn't have a quick first step. His arm this season seemed to fall off a bit and would now rate as a below average arm, especially for RF. His throws are accurate but inconsistent. Knowing his defensive short comings, the Orioles started to convert him to first base where he made 38 starts. He improved a bit throughout the year but has some ways to go to be playable there at the major league level. He surprisingly struggled on pop ups from the first base position. On the bases, he has slightly above average sprint speed on the bases and run well on the go, but he does not have a quick first step and will not steal bases. What we don't know: While his bat is going to play, the biggest question is where does he play defensively? He'll get an entre offseason to work on his first base skills and that might be his best place to play in the long run unless his jumps and routes can improve in the outfield. The only question with the bat is penchant to chase the down and in slider out of the zone. He's not a big strike out guy, but his power output at AAA was a bit of a disappointment so it bares watching how often he can get to his game power in 2024 What we think: Kjerstad is ready to be an everyday major league hitter and depending on the Orioles offseason, it could be as the Orioles everyday RF or first baseman. How often he can get to his game power and his eventual defensive value will determine his overall ceiling. He's got all the makings though of being a middle of the order major league hitte

Westburg would be #7 on this list if he were still eligible. He'd be below Ortiz because I do think Ortiz is going to be a plus to plus-plus defender wherever he plays so that will increase his value. Really though, he's 6.b because to me, you have to decide do you want more power or better defense? Ortiz would also get the nod in that he can play SS and Westburg would be a Urias-like shortstop.

Yeah, that probably came off as looking like I was telling you that, but I was just re-emphasizing that I said his ceiling was in CF, not his most likely outcome.

I will say this, it would not totally surprise me if you told me ten years from now that 2 or 3 put up more WAR than #1, but I still think #1 will end up a cut above.

I like to add I said "ceiling" but his most likely was a corner outfielder defensively. Cowser can play center and not kill you, he's just not ideal.

Cowser missed one ball that was a two-star catch or less which was this one while playing LF. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=41ec60ac-1810-4296-b636-74a0a90e3a54 Cowser was given just 16 games in LF in the minors and then asked to play 7 major league games in LF in the majors. if you want to blame anyone, blame Blood (managers play the lineups provided for the and only change if there is an injury or sickness) for playing him almost exclusively in CF and a bit if RF when he game translates to LF in Camden Yards. He made this 3-star catch (75% catch probability) in CF: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=72ae2f61-3c35-4c4b-86b2-3242cbc99f15 Overall he didn't get great jumps but I think his "poor" defense is being way overplayed based on small sample sizes and couple of plays that may have not looked great but weren't either catchable or would have taken 3-5 star catches to make happen. I watch him a decent amount in AAA and he's fine defensively. His 33.1 ft/sec covered is a little below average and why I don't think he's an everyday CF, but it was better than Austin Hays' 32.2 ft/sec so he so would be fine in LF with more experience out there.

You only give up that much if you think Burnes is the final piece of your World Series puzzle, and even then, I think you need him for at least two years for that return. Mayo is one of the three guys I would not move unless I was blown away by an offer. I'd trade Ortiz, McDermott, and say a guy like Haskin or even a wild card like Nunez for him though.

You guys are making a loot of good comments. The one thing I will say is that whoever is #3 is really #2b.

I kinda went through all the options as I see it. Saying that, I would be surprised if Westburg and Ortiz are both in the organization come next spring. One of that should be traded this offseason because they have value and can be a core part of a trade for a top starting pitcher.

At the start of the year of end? I think they will start the year with Gunnar at 3B, Ortiz at SS, and Westburg at 2B. that would give them plus defenders at every infield position. I'd be happy to see a Mayo/Henderson/Ortiz with Westburg traded or as a super sub to start the year. Depending on how Holliday does at AAA and the need, I could see them ending the year with Henderson/Ortiz/Holliday with Westburg as a supersub or Mayo/Henderson/Holliday with Ortiz as the supersub if Westburg is traded.. A lot depends on whether the Orioles trade Ortiz or Westburg this offseason. If neither are moved, I think that's your starting infield on opening day.

When Holliday is deemed ready, and I doubt that is going to be at the start of next season no matter what GM speak Elias says about giving him a chance, he will play 2B or SS.