Tony-OH

I'm not too worried about the lack of extra base hits yet. He's raised his average, raised his BB% and cut his K% down. These are all adjustments he's made this year. Maybe that's happened at the expense of his power a bit? I have definitely noticed he'll take that oppo single if it gets him on vs swinging from the heels on every pitch. If Kjerstad, Westburg and Cowser are who we think they can be, he may not need to be a huge power guy.

Rutschman has a .361 wOBA (it was .354 last year) with a .376 xwOBA to go along with his 133 RC+. Rutschman's offense has been the least of our concerns. He's a better hitter than he was last year so although his SLG is down a bit .425 to his .445 last year when he was a double machine, he's picking up more single than outs as the trade off. Rutschman is not going to be a big homer guy. We saw that in the minors. He's going to settle in a 20-25 homer guy most likely but he's going to walk a lot and hit for a good average so he's going to remain a great hitter and plus plus for his position.

Nice to see Estrada getting going today. Went 2-for-4 with a double, HR and walk. seems they've settled on him playing 2B which probably makes the most sense based on some of the reviews of his defense and arm. But the biggest story may be the hitting of Maikol Hernandez so far. Went 3-for-4 playing 3B today as Arias got SS time today. He's batting .462 so far while batting first as a priority play everyday. If he keeps it up he could move up to Delmarva to unjam the SS position in the FCL.

Yeah, I don't really understand it.

Mountcastle, Mateo, Henderson and Urias have all under performed this year to expectations. Frazier is actually better than I expected but still not good offensively. The team has hitters ready in AAA, but appears to be waiting until the Super-2 deadline passes before pulling them up.

The lack of pop is hurting this team and think that's why you are seeing the BB% drop a bit. Pitchers are not afraid of many guys going deep on them and the ones that they are (Mountcastle) they know they can get him out out of the zone. Yes, the Orioles play half their games in the Baltimore Grand Canyon in left field, but they are not exactly smacking homes all over away either.

Lester could be DFA'd, but I think you lose him. Now whether that matters or not is debatable and I'd be fine if he was DFA'd, but Gillespie is easily replaceable and Denoyer has regressed. I think they would probably make it through waivers and still be in the org if needed to be re-added.

If you need to DFA guys, Gillespie and Denoyer would be the guys I'd move. Denoyer's stuff has dropped off for some reason this season and he can't pull any length. Both are replaceable. Zimmerman is a bulk reliever, spot starter guy who can do what he did yesterday, eat innings when needed. I'd keep him on the 40-man until you absolutely need to DFA him. Lester is a guy who probably would be claimed by a team like Oakland. Might be best for him if that happened anyways but he's a bit redundant. Vavra is also a guy that might need a fresh start. Maybe they could trade him for a decent arm bullpen guy that doesn't need to be on the 40-man.

While I don't think it's everything, I do think that's part of the equation. I do wonder if Cowser would have been the answer when Mullins went down if he wasn't injured. Either way, it will be interesting if Cowser and Westburg are brought up once their super-2 points have passed.

Baseball Reference now has dropped the Orioles down 17% over the last week of making the playoffs down to 31% with 0.1% chance of winning the World Series. Fangraphs have the at 35% and 1% for World Series. Do with that what you will but thought that was interesting enough to post and follow. Either way, right now the Orioles would be in the playoffs if they started today.

There is no doubt that Carroll is doing what you expect from impact players to do right off the bat. That's not to say Henderson won't be that guy at some point, but it's not even close that Carroll has been the better overall major league player so far in their careers. Besides his arm strength, Carroll doesn't appear to have a hole in his game. They have huge differences in K% and WHIF % and defensively Gunnar has been a disappointment this year so far.

Freddi managed last night? I totally missed the game and was about to come in and give credit to Hyde for only using two pitchers in a 10-2 loss vs depleting his pen. If so, put me in the Freddi Gonzales camp for managing a bullpen. This tells me that it is Hyde not the "stat nerds" making these bullpen decisions.

The lefty issue was something I pointed out throughout his minor league career, but the good news is he's been pretty selective against them and although he hasn't hit them well in the majors, he has drawn 10 walks in 48 PAs giving him a .313 OBP against them despite batting just .132. Whether he should have been the number one prospect in all of baseball is certainly debatable, and it would be nice if he got it going a little bit at this point. He's slashed .226/.336/.407/.744 over his first 321 PAs at 21 years of age. You could definitely make an argument that he could have stayed in AAA a bit longing and worked on consistency, being more aggressive at times, and hitting left-handers before making his debut. But saying all that, the talent and eye is there to improve and while he may never be great against lefties, I think he'll end up serviceable against them and killer against righties.

I agree. The tools have been on display but he's going though some adjustments. Since May 13th, he's slashed .254/.302/.509/.810 over his last 63 PAs. Now those aren't eye popping numbers and of course we'd like to see the OBP move up, but Henderson was making some adjustments. He's going to be fine and will be a fixture with the Orioles for years to come.

Maybe it's not hatred but fans who actually understand his lack of production and limited value to a team. The Orioles released 26-year old Renato Núñez who was actually more valuable and better player than Mountcastle he's basically out of baseball now. It's not personal, it's not hatred, it's the fact that he's not producing offensively or defensively enough for a quality playoff caliber team. He should be a platoon RH 1B or DH.

Mountcastle is a one dimensional player who brings some power but very little else. He's never hit for the average I thought he would because even though he has good plate coverage, he's never made the adjustments for taking that low and away pitch to RF. Instead he'll pull that pitch and roll over to SS or 3B. He hits the ball hard consistently, but he seems to hit the ball hard on the ground or too high which averages out to make his numbers look good. His xBA this year on fastballs has fallen to .218. That's a concern as well. At the end of the day, while WAR is not a perfect stat, the fact is he's not a very valuable player especially when you bring his below average defense at first base (1% arm strength for first baseman). Mountcastle has really become a platoon right-handed DH type who may be able to provide some Benny Ayala type PH against lefties late in games if used correctly. Either way, I'm hoping to see Kjerstad play 1B a lot of AAA because I think he's the best long term option at 1B though Mayo and 3-4 years for now Basallo could be options. But we'll get there when we get there. For now, O'Hearn and Mountcastle should be platooned.

Teams go through patches like this as others have pointed out. The good news is the Orioles really have been in almost every game during this streak. Now, these close losses or blown save games always hurt more, but there is no reason to think this team is suddenly going to implode. The rotation has been pretty good overall and the bullpen has been ok, though they have been worked very hard. If the Orioles would be willing to go with the hot hands more and be willing to sit players like Mountcastle more often, I think they have a chance to be better offensively. I do think we will see Cowser and Westburg at some point in the second half and they should help as well.

I feel like this should be posted permanently somewhere on the site! Mountcastle is a one dimensional player who brings some power but very little else. He's never hit for the average I thought he would because even though he has good plate coverage, he's never made the adjustments for taking that low and away pitch to RF. Instead he'll pull that pitch and roll over to SS or 3B. He hits the ball hard consistently, but he seems to hit the ball hard on the ground or too high which averages out to make his numbers look good. His xBA this year on fastballs has fallen to .218. That's a concern as well. At the end of the day, while WAR is not a perfect stat, the fact is he's not a very valuable player especially when you bring his below average defense at first base (1% arm strength for first baseman). Mountcastle has really become a platoon right-handed DH type who may be able to provide some Benny Ayala type PH against lefties late in games if used correctly. Either way, I'm hoping to see Kjerstad play 1B a lot of AAA because I think he's the best long term option at 1B though Mayo and 3-4 years for now Basallo could be options. But we'll get there when we get there. For now, O'Hearn and Mountcastle should be platooned.

Really, air quality? Wow. That Bowens Little League home run was something else. What a terrible outfielder. Great job always posting the twitter videos in these. I enjoy them every day.

It's probably more about getting him regular PAs. The Bowie catching situation has been abysmal.

Stats look good, but he's a junkballer that I think would struggle against major leaguers. By the way, and this is not for you but to all, last night was an earned loss, but it was also an earned win by the Brewers. In 162 game schedule, sometimes you are just going to get outplayed. This team is resilient. They'll bounce back.

Bastardo is crappo!

A mystery of Hyde's bullpen management.

Terrible pitch, terrible pitch call, terrible job of using Bautista in the 9th instead of the 10th with a man on. Terrible throwing by Rutschman, terrible leadoff walk by Cano. What, 14 strike outs? Well earned loss.

The Orioles earned every ounce of that loss.