Tony-OH

As for the title of this thread, so is major league baseball apparently.

I think we're all mixed up at this point. lol This is what happens when the Orioles throw us a bone at the last second. I agree with you that Lyles is basically Harvey. I would not surprise me if he puts up similar numbers as Harvey in 2021 though hopefully they won't keep running him out there as long with Rodriguez, Bradish, Baumann and potentially Rom or Brnovich not too far behind.

Me? Where did I say that? I said it appears the Orioles are going off that since his expected stats and performance does not dictate a $7 million contract. Honestly, I'm just perplexed why he was signed for this much money. Was there a bidding war for this guy? I certainly think performance and expected stats mean a lot more than stuff when your 31 years old and a major league veteran.

Wait, something from Manfred was a bunch of crap? Man, he seemed so in touch with everything before this so this comes as a HUUUGGGEEEE surprise!! lol

No, it's better to just sit around, rag on anyone for a different opinion while just being happy that the Orioles spent money, even if the player doesn't fit. Make perfect sense. lol

Last year was the first year he pitched over 142 innings in a season. All of metrics show him to be a well below average pitcher with a pitching style that may not fit Camden Yards. I don't think it's assured at all he bought 170 innings of decent starting pitching. This is a guy who pitched to a 7.02 ERA in 2020 and who allowed 50 home runs in his last 238 IP. I would not be surprised if he's puts up Matt Harvey type numbers pitching in Camden Yards and against the AL East. If you're happy with paying Matt Harvey performance for 7 million next year, ok.

You are dug in. Enjoy your foxhole. I can't have a conversation with you on this kind of stuff if you are going to keep sitting your arguments on hypotheticals like if these guys improved I'd rather have that vs the 1st pick. That's not even in the conversation. That's like saying you'd rather have every rookie go off last year and the Orioles end up winning 70 games. Of course, we all would have preferred the rookies and young players to take big step forwards vs finishing in dead last. No one would possible argue that with you. The question is, would you rather have spent money on middling players like you keep talking about and finish with five or ten more wins and end up with the 4th or worse pick over the 1st. Last year, it made sense to give some young players chances (but they totally screwed up how they used Lowther) and basically fill the rest with never would bes and a few one year guys you hope do well and you can move for talent. Once they knew they weren't going to get much for Galvis and Franco, they went full tank mode to get the 1st overall pick. Under the current system, it made sense to do that.

Means gave Holt some credit with his changeup, but other than that, who has Holt made better and why do you think he's some magic wand for pitchers? I don't dislike Holt as a coordinator, but I see very little that he has improved to make me think he's a difference maker for a 31 year old pitcher.

First concern: He allowed 38 home runs last year and if he were pitching in Camden Yards it would have been 45. Expect a lot of souvenirs. Second concern: He'll pitch at 31 years old and was not wanted by the Rangers who were bad last year. Third Concern: This is the most expensive free agent Elias has signed and he's like the equivalent of Ubaldo, albeit less expensive and for one year vs four. Fourth Concern: The Oriole decision makers think this is the kind of guy that makes us better in the AL East. It appears they are focused on his good fastball and curveball spin rates and not the fact that his expected stats against have been terrible for years. I'm starting to get worried that they are becoming a slave to the spin rate metrics and not fpocusing on whether a guy can make consistently good pitches. COMMAND is important. Just because a guy has good stuff doesn't make him a good pitcher. He has to be able to pitch and command those pitches and the expected stats, particularly over an extended period of time tell you how major league hitters handle him, and they've been hitting him hard for a while now. Fifth concern: The signing of Odor (low OBP, power guy, questionable defense depending on metrics) and Lyle (Homer prone flyball pitcher who has been hit hard and no wanted by another last place team) is making me start to question Elias and team's ability to identify good major league talent that makes the team better. I realize these are fingers in the dam kind of moves, but they are underwhelming for sure and hold little upside. I'd rather give the ball to Bradish or Kremer (right-handed options) every five days and see what we have.

Right, which I believe will start in 2022-23 offseason if things go well this season. The 1st wave of the top prospects should start arriving this year and next. That's when he should have a better idea of his depth and holes and make the appropriate moves which should include spending way more money.

You are missing the point, I was talking about last year. I agree with you that I want to see improvement with the young players this year and want to see us win around 70 games.

No, because I haven't seen a player that will be a difference maker at a position of need in 2024 and beyond.

Sorry, but that's not smart. If the team is going to suck, might as well suck enough to get the best pick. At the end of the day, let's hope they are never in this situation again.

Nah, I'm just telling it like I see it. I don't think I'm looking at things with orange colored glasses. With all the unknowns of the CBA this offseason, it makes little sense for a 110 loss team to be aggressive in free agency. Besides, no starting pitcher is signing here unless grossly overpaid.

Let's say Elias did and the Orioles would have won 62 instead of 52. They still finish dead last, lose 100 games, and they get the #4 overall pick vs the #1. Are those ten wins worth getting the 4th over pick vs the #1 overall pick?

Ok, it's your team. How do make this team a 29 games better in one offseason without losing the depth of your farm system or overpaying players in free agency? That's the problem. We all would like to see .500 baseball again, but their is no path to .500 this year that also includes us being perennial contenders by 2024. And if you want to bring up hypothetical trades for players who may or may not be available, tell us who you think we'd have to give up to get such player.

I'm saying it's reasonable to expect the players in 2022 to be better than the players in this positions in 2021. Does that mean they all will, no, but it's reasonable to expect them to be better than the ones they replaced. As for the starting pitching, that's a pretty low bar to get over. As you know, I ultimately think Bradish, Baumann, Akin and maybe Kremer all will settled into the bullpen. I'm higher on Lowther than many, but over a full season, I'll be a good amount of money he's going to be better than Harvey/Lopez/Watkins etc. Same goes for a healthy Zimmermann who has a nice changeup at times and his slider is for real when he can command it. I still think they are going to try T. Wells as a starter unless they don't think he can handle the innings jump but he has better stuff than any of the Orioles potential opening day rotation pieces not named Means.

Ok, keep Wells in relief if you want. What's not probable? where is the "rosey" part? Will some players slip, sure. Heck we may find that none of the guy outside of Means are major league starters, but that would tell the team that they must acquire that pitching. Saying that, look at the stats of the guys they will be replacing. It's hard to be worse than what Lopez/Harvey/Kremer/Watkins/Akin/Eshelman did as starters in 2021.

Interesting history. Never knew any of that. Thanks Japan!

There is no world where Odor is starting over a healthy Urias on opening day with the Orioles this year. As for Martin, he could have been DFA'd at any point. He's just not a major league player. He's an up down 35 level player because of his lack of stick and inconsistent defense.

I don't know if you are just being hard headed at this point or just digging in your heals, but I don't think that's what this year is about at all. The Orioles are in a different spot in any previous year because they legitimate, major league or major league ready players and pitchers to play this year. 2022 vs 2021 C- Rutschman > Severino 1B: Mouncastle year two > Mountcastle rookie season 2B - Urias > Valaika/Wilkeson/Rio/Urias 2021 SS - Mateo < Galvis (The Orioles still need some work here unless they really believe Mateo is a full time SS) 3B - Gutierrez > Franco UTL- Odor > Valaika/Martin LF - Hays (27) >= Hays (26) CF - Mullins = Mullins RF - Santander (healthy) > Santander DH - Mancini 2 years removed from cancer >= Mancini SP - Means = Means SP - T Wells > Harvey SP - Lowther > Lopez SP - Zimmemann > Zimmermann hurt SP - Bradish/Baumann/A. Wells/Akin/Kremer (?) > Watkins/Kremer I think it's very realistic that we can improve 20 games from within and this doesn't even account for Rodriguez and Stowers being ready at some point.

Sure, that's an understandable view point, especially from a frustrated fan. First, the Orioles would have to overpay both of those guys to come to a 110 loss team, pitching half their games in Camden Yards and against the AL East competition. Even if they signed both of those guys, do you think we are ready to compete in 2022? I don't. A 20 win improvement would be huge, and that still makes us a 90 loss team. The reason I say you see where we are at the end of 2022 because by then you will have a better understanding of your current talent and close prospects and be able to start looking at adding good players through trade of free agency in the the 2022-23 offseason. Then, if the team improves to .500 or better hopefully, you then go get those final pieces in the 23-24 offseason. Then you have a competing team from 2024 onward.

Maybe, who knows? This process has been painful from a fan standpoint at the major league level, but I can see it coming to an end and yes, I do believe losing and losing a lot was part of the plan in order to get those top picks and more importantly, that big bonus pool that's he's used to add a lot of depth. Let's see where we are at the end of 2022 before getting too upset or happy.

Well I've put out what I think their plan is but you may have missed it. I think 2022 is when they are trying to win with prospects. No more Matt Harvey's, trying to start relievers (Lopez/Akin) bringing up 30 year old bad knuckleballers or giving starts to never should of bes in Spenser Watkins and Tom Eshleman and giving 13 starts to a guy under performing (Kremer). I think that could mean a 71-90 ish team this year especially with Rutschman arriving and Stowers and Rodriguez close behind. 2023 is when you start knowing where you holes are. By the end of 2022 we we know a lot more about our top prospects like Mayo, Hall, Henderson, Cowser, Westburg and maybe even Kjerstad. We should also have a pretty good idea on Kremer, Akin, Lowther, T. Wells, A. Wells, Bradish, Baumann, and Zimmermann and what roles if any they will have on a winning Orioles team in the future. I would like to see the Orioles as a .500 or slightly better team by 2023. That makes 2024 the year where they should be ready to acquire impact talent to fill the holes and compete. Hopefully perennially. AS for you last question, I always say brothers because they both were there at the Elias introuction. I have no other insights into how the ownership is handled currently.

Unless the CBA changes, he can be cut in spring training and not be owed a dime outside spring training per diem.