Tony-OH

I have zero issues with Elias going out and getting good stop gaps for 2B, SS, 3B, SPs and RPs, but who are they? Who will come here for a year or two and be good? This goes back to trading Means. If they do, they have to get back young nearly ready SPs that will be ready by sometime in 2022 but good by 2023.

Well, many studies have shown that a players prime is 27-31 years old for everything but spring speed which seems to top out at 22-23 and than gradually decline. Now that doesn't mean every player will follow that, and Mullins is an interesting case because of his complete breakout after dumping switch hitting. Mullins may not by a 5.7 rWAR again, but there's not a lot of signs that say he won't either. He was above average in every single category in expected stats, EV, barrel %, etc. Defensively he was elite and although his spring speed has fallen from 95.2 percentile to 85.9%, he's still an elite defender and base runner. Mullins to me is a star and although I would listen to any offers for anyone, i would need to be blown away by an offer for Mullins before moving him.

Ok, forget about COVID, let's just look at what we have right now coming up this year. Oh, and I'm not taking up for the Angelos family here, I'm just saying what I see on the horizon. I wish it was just, add a few players and this team will be good but we're talking about a team that was pathetic in every way last year. Who is part of true future contending team that was on the team last year? 1B: Mountcastle LF- Hays (Maybe) CF: Mullins SP: Lowther (Maybe) SP/RP: Tyler Wells RP: Akin (Maybe) SP/RP -Zimmermann (maybe) Who are we adding from the farm? 2022: C - Rutschman RF - Stowers (Maybe at some point) SP - Grayson Rodriguez (At some point) SP/RP - Kyle Bradish (At some point) RP - Baumann (at some point by could make team out of spring training if they decide he's a reliever) RP - Felix Bautista (should make team out of spring training) SP - Rom (Potentially by end) 2023: SP: DL Hall 2B - Vavra (maybe) 3B - Henderson (maybe) LF/RF/CF: Cowser 3B - Mayo (potentially if he makes it to AA in 2022) SS/2B - Westburg RF - Kjerstad (assuming he's healthy and returns to the player he was suppose to be when drafted) SP - Pinto (Maybe) SS/2B - Ortiz (maybe) SP - Brandon Young (maybe) Potentially a 2022 draft pick That's still a lot of holes that they will need to trade or sign free agents to fill. If these guys come up and are good, 2023 looks like the year to sign or trade for SP help. I do think the Orioles can be better in 2022, but start to consider contending by 2023. By 2024 they should be a contender or the rebuild has failed.

Mullins will be 29 in 2024 and he doesn't have a skill set that generally erodes in the early 30s. I think he will be fine. Hays is not a center fielder really either, though he can play there like Cowser. Hays' sprint speed has fallen from 91.7 percentile to 58.4 in the last four years and his reaction and burst speeds have fallen off to below average as well. Mullins overs 34.6 ft/per second while Hays covers 31.7 ft/per second. Mullins had a 10 Outs above average rating in center field while Hays ha a -1 in LF. So if you want a well below average center fielder, then you play Hays there. I don't have the statcast info on Cowser so I'm going by what I saw which admittedly is on video where it's tough to see jumps, but he just doesn't show me that top sprint speed you'd really want out there. His routes need some work as well but he's still new to pro ball so I can't ding him too much on that. I think you underestimate what Mullins brings as I don't think you are a true believer of his breakout season.

I think that's been the case ever since COVID stole a year of development. 2022 is able trying to win with young players. 2023 is about trying to compete with their core young players. 2024 should be the year where we are competing for the playoffs.

By who? Cowser is probably the closest outfielder who is an everyday player prospect who can play center field, but you are going to see a drop off from Mullins who is one of the best. Cowser probably belong in LF or RF really, but I'd play him in CF if I had no better alternatives. Means will be 29 years old and can't stay healthy over an entire year and has struggled in the second half when competitive teams need guys to step up. If we can turn him into a young starting pitching prospect that's ready or nearly ready, then maybe a power bullpen arm that's nearly ready, I'd do that. Maybe have them throw in a Pinto like lottery ticket. I just don't see why we would trade Mullins unless we got an absolute haul of pitching prospects to include nearly ready ones. Mullins will be just entering prime next year and is coming off a 30-30 year with all of statcast metrics trending in the right direction. Everything shows Mullins to be legit and we don't have a young pure center fielder in the system that is a an everyday player at the big league level.

This is how I look at it. I have no issues trading Means (I have more issues trading a young controllable Mullins) if they can get a nice return of young players that are ready or nearly ready. They have to get a nice young good looking starting pitching prospect in AA or AAA back in return along with at least one other piece (maybe a power bullpen arm in AA/AAA). I'd avoid getting anyone too far away and it can't be a Bundy like return.

The short answer is he does not rank. He's a career .244/.339/.332/.671 hitter in the minor leagues. He's got a .944 fld PCt at SS. Cadyn Grenier is a career .230/.337/.359/.696 hitter with a .963 fld percentage at SS (most of his errors were in Delmarva) with a .982 in AA. Honestly, I'd rather have a no stick, steady glove Grenier and he couldn't make the top 30.

He is if he's healthy enough to pitch at some point. The fact that he was not invited to instructs was not a great sign.

Roberts is a good minor league org guy who can fill in anywhere I play because he's solid defensively. He doesn't throw all that great and he has limited power and pretty much everything in his offensive game is well below average. He might get a major league invite to catch pitchers in spring training, but I don't think he's being looked at as a big league option.

Rizer is a gamer and he's fun to watch. He's a line drive hitter who occasionally will get into one, but the rising strikeout rate, lowered walk rate, average and OBP drop in AA all don't bode well for him. Mike Yastrzemski would be a guy I'd say he reminds me of when Yaz was in the minors, so never say never, but I wouldn't count on the meteoric rise like Yaz.

I was disappoint that Stauffer's velocity early in he year when he was 89-90 and I buried off the prospect scene. I took another look at him in Aberdeen and he was 91-93 over three inning stints with a mid 70's curveball (his best pitch), below average slider and changeup. Honestly, he looks very similar to Van Loon the 16r pick this past year. I'm not convince that mid-70s curveball works at the major league level so he may need a wrinkle or two to become interesting once again. He'l "only" be 23 next season so if he velocity can take another step forward and he can improve the offspeed he could become interesting once again.

Grenier by far. More consistent.

Handley is what he was advertised defensively but he can't hit. Probably the best overall defender at catcher in the system, better than Rutschman especially throwing, but he's been pretty much a zero at the plate. Daschbach is a bit of stiff power guy for me. More muscle power than quick bat, he did show nice power at Bowie but it came at a price. Not sure he's going to be able to show a consistent enough stick for 1B and he's Mancini like outfielder.

Cook hit half his homers in one game (quite the game). Decent power, but plate discipline suggests he will struggle at high levels. Armbruster is a fastball (93) curveball guy with a short arm delivery that may add in some deception. Fastball looks pretty true though the curveball gets so nice bit at times. Looks like an org guy to me. Pure relief. Lloyd was a guy who thought enough of himself to be one of the last guys signed and at 20 years old, he had some leverage. I only saw him a few outings and he was around 93 MPH on his fastball according to the broadcaster. It may have a little run but I didn't have great angels. The slider may be a cutter because there is very little break. He also threw what may have been a curveball at some point or a downward breaking slider, but hard to tell. At this point he's not overly interesting as a prospect. Van Loon I actually like a little better than the other two despite being a 16th rounder. He's a strike thrower, fastball around 93, throws a curve, slider and chance with his curve being the best of the three off-speed pitches. He'll be 23 next year so you would like to see him move quickly and have success against more mature hitters. The curve can be a strike out pitch at times but didn't see a lot of swing and miss on any of his pitches in the zone.

Bowens certainly has the look and physicality of a player of interest, but he just doesn't do anything well enough to be of interest at a high level. A low average with bad plate discipline is a major league red flag unfortunately.

Lara is a small, average tool player who hit well in his first professional taste. We'll have to see how he progresses up the chain. I didn't hear anything about Prado.

Thanks, didn't know that. Definitely not good signs for the young man.

That's doubtful. I don't know what roster he has to be protected on but I'll imagine he will be placed on that roster to keep him protected. Fenter is another guy that just struggles to find consistency and his stuff fell off for a me a bit though I never really had good video of him him previously. Burns has a decent slap hitting line drive approach at the plate and can look smooth at times in the field, but he made way too many errors and there's really not much pop there at all. A good year though could potentially get him on the scene as a utility guy.

The question is, why did Frazier fall off the "cliff" with exit velocity, barrel percentage and everything that tracks hitting the ball hard? It's pretty clear he can't hit offspeed pitches, but they didn't throw them more to him, he just stopped hitting the fastball this year. Saying that, with Mountcastle and Mancini, I don't see where he fits and I just don't see them giving away Mancini this offseason. I think he gets at least one more year to see if he can bring value next trading deadline.

Looks like the good Gillaspie showed up. There were times last year that I wondered, who is this guy, then he'd come out and have no idea where anything was going. Guess it doesn't hurt to protect an arm like this, but he really has to find that consistency during the season as his double-A stats will attest to. Everyone needs to remember, Connor Green throws 98 sometimes too, and has a great slider at times, but again, he can never find consistency.

While I would have no issue DFAing Martin, the answer is they think they will have both. I don't think the Orioles believe they will lose Vespi or anyone else that they didn't protect. Vespi doesn't throw hard and it's questionable whether his breaking balls will work against major league hitters since he struggled with them at times against AAA hitters. Can anyone find me a successful reliever that throws like Vespi in the major leagues? Fry throws 2-3 MPH faster and his slider when it was working and he was commanding it was a better pitch.

Teter had a nice start to his professional career but he wasn't able to tap into his raw power for playable game power enough for me. He'll play at 23 next year so he'll need to get up to AA next year while hitting for power to get on the prospect scene. I like some of Sparks tools, especially the arm, and 2021 was a big year for him to stay on the field an play without injury. Unfortunately though, his middling power numbers, average and plate discipline wasn't enough to put up him on the scene. Like Teter, he's 23 next year so he'll need to really move to keep getting priority playing time.

He's a $250K 20th rounder which makes him interesting enough to follow, but not enough to know whether he's worth really watching next year. He certainly could get himself on the scene with a good year in Delmarva next year.

I profiled 49 of the top prospects in the organization including the other prospects to know in 2022. So else would you like to know about? I'll do my best to explain what I know about them and why they may not have made the list. I may even add in one more to the other prospects to know in 2022 to round it off to 50.