Tony-OH

Happy Thanksgiving to everyone who is part of our special community. I'm thankful for each of you!!

Fair enough. Do you think Elias is rebuilding the way he's doing this because of a lack of money from ownership or do you think he's doing it this way because he thinks this is the best way to rebuild to become a perennial winner?

Do you honestly think that's Elias' goal? I'm not taking up for the Angelos brothers because to me, we just don't know their intentions yet when it comes to spending to win, but do you really think Elias is doing it this way because he doesn't want to win?

Well, you and Sports Guy have a different opinion on what the Orioles should be doing this offseason then many of us and clearly what the Orioles are going to do. That doesn't make you wrong, it means we have a different opinion. I do want the Orioles to start getting better next season and don't want to see any Matt Harvey type moves or bringing up guys from AAA that are not legitimate major league league players. But here's where I see us right now. This is the first year where wins and development at the major league level matter. Rutschman will be here. Rodriguez should not be too far behind. They were an awful team next year and signing a couple guys is not going to change that. When we're closer, then its time to add talent.

Agreed. As great a person and teammate Mancini is, he really doesn't make a ton of sense for this team, particularly with Mountcastle needing to play 1B. My hope is he comes back, has a big first half, and the orioles can get him to a playoff contender at the trading deadline and get a decent return for him.

This is the first claim that I like a bit, even if he's got a Tanner Scott vibe. Short lefthander with a 96 MPH fastball, a plus slider and who will flash a change occasionally. Obviously the walks are the issue and why he was DFA'd. May have the major league yips a bit since he doesn't have awful walk rates in the minors. Still, if I'm going to take a chance on a guy, the stuff is there for him to be successful, but he needs to find that control.

You know what I get out of this thread, that @Frobbyand @Sports Guy are Mullins haters! Seriously though, Hays has always been a very talented player that has been limited by injuries. Saying that, he needs to improve his hitting against right-handed pitching after a year in which he hit slashed .221/.283/.400/.682 in 315 PAs against them. Now the good news is this is really the first time he's had a big split so I'm not overly worried unless we have another season where he has a big split. Then you start thinking he's Gary Roenicke and may need to have a platoon mate (Neustrom???). Some other good news is he lowered his chase rate to a career best 29.4% (28.3% is MLB avg) and his other statcast metrics make him out to an average big league hitter. If he increases his walk rate a bit that would increase his OBP which would make him more valuable. The core injury also explains the big drop in spring speed and outfield ability. Maybe he's ll get some of that back though he's increasing in age a bit so that could offset anything gained from the surgery. The key to hi statements though is him saying he learned he can play through "nagging injuries" and still be productive. I think a lot of players have been told to shut things down too fast nowadays because everyone's worried about it becoming something major and costing them money. Hays played through his discomfort, had success, and dealt with things in the offseason. Looking forward to him patrolling left field next year full time.

I gotta admit, I'm a little perplexed why he went so cheap. I looked at all all his numbers and besides his disaster COVID 2020, he's thrown the ball well. He's a sinker, changeup guy, with a below average curveball and slider, but he's a pretty good 4th starter. He's pitched well against the AL East teams. I know Elias and company hates sinkerballers and maybe the numbers show guys with his stuff fall off after 30 (he'll pitch from 31-34 in this contract), but it seems to me that those were very realistic numbers for a guy who should be decent in the rotation over the length of his contract. I do think though that Elias is not going to spend until he sees the prospect up and doing well and then figures out where his holes are and then spend. While 2022 should not be like 2021 when the team was bringing up never will be's and never should have beens up to play, this season should be about evaluating as many prospects that are ready as possible. Matz is not going to make much difference for the Orioles this year and probably next, and who knows what he will look like in 2024 when he's 33. And by then the Orioles may have acquired better options. I'm more perplexed as to why he went so cheap and why Toronto didn't try to keep him for that money.

Got it, thanks. It doesn't change anything else I wrote though unfortunately. I'm rooting for the kid's bat to develop but I don't hold out a lot of hope.

You seem to be very close Handley and it's understandable why you are supportive. Saying that, it's silly to say Handley's defense will win more games in the big leagues than Rutschman's bat. Aberdeen is a tough place to hit home runs because of its deep power alleys so its normal to see ISOs go down there, but Handley has slashed .201/.310/.300/.610 in 365 PAs so far in his professional career with a 38-118 K-BB ratio. He has a 29.4% K rate and just a 6.2% walk rate. Par effects has nothing to do with that. He was 23 years old in High-A ball and put up a park adjusted 83 wRC+. Now I only bring this up because it goes to show that its not just because he's only played Aberdeen. He just hasn't hit. Now can he improve? Sure. Is his defense major league quality? Sure, I'd say he could play defensively in the major leagues, but he's got to at least be able to hit some. Could he potentially improve enough where he could be a back up to Rutschman one day? Potentially. But he's going to have to rework his hitting.

He really didn't do anything to make anyone get excited. Middling average, middling plate discipline, middling power. He's got a decent frame to wish upon but this year didn't put him on the prospects scene.

The early results were not good on either part of his game, but let's see what he looks like after a full season. Nothing jumped out at me in my early looks, but you never know.

I don't know how to explain it but he doesn't throw a ton of non competitive pitches. Most of the time hitters are taking close pitches called balls because they can't hit it anyways. The thing is, you can walk 5.8 per nine when nobody can hit you. Now will that work in the big leagues, that we'll need to see, but I'm telling you, he's got better control than Tanner Scott. Now Command? Eh, that' a different story, but at his velocity, command is rare.

For me, yes. But I'm only going by the stats as I've never seen Fox play. Remember, Mateo was at a .267/.325 /.422/.747 hitter over his minor league career. Mateo has a little pop too, where Fox doesn't. Fox is like Mateo-lite.

This should tell you everything you need to know about most national prospect publications/evaluators. When i saw Franco this year against the Tides, it was clear the guy is a future star. Fox might have tools, but we have years of stats to tell us he can't hit despite the tools.

He doesn't have 20 control, that's an ill-informed comment. I've watch him a lot this year. He occasionally can cut loose a crazy wild pitch, but for the most part he's around the strike zone. His split is his best offspeed pitch so all of this really seems ill-informed.

The one thing Elias showed last season is he's not afraid of in season promotion. Now whether that was because of the missed COVID year or the way he plans to move forward remains to be seen, but anyone who says he doesn't promote aggressively was not paying attention last year. He seemed to start guys off where he thought they would get off to a good start and then promoted them until they were challenged.

Henderson got just 157 PAs in Delmarva before getting promoted to Aberdeen and he showed less plate discipline. Obviously i will partially depend on how he looks next spring, but I would not be surprised if he starts 2021 in Aberdeen. Saying that, Elias likes to get guys off to a good start at lower levels so I could see him returning for a bit. Either way, I'd like to see him end up with some Double-A time next year.

There's a lot more starting pitching free agents next year and I'd a rather use this year to see what we have in house. It's time to fully evaluate: Lowther T. Wells Akin Kremer Bradish Baumann A. Wells Zimmermann In 2023, we will have a better idea which role if any these guys have in the major leagues, Grayson Rodriguez will be in the rotation, and hopefully DL Hall is close. Maybe even Rom. 2023 would be when I'd be more open to signing a starting pitcher to a 4-year deal.

I'd bring Davies back on the right one year deal, but again, I think he will find a better place to pitch to try and regain his value. Plus he's a sinkerballer. And we know Elias hates sinkerballers.

KC wouldn't do that deal ever. Means is not getting either of those guys.

Do you really think Stroman will want to pitch here? Also, let's remember, Stroman is going to give up more runs in Camden Yards and against the Al East. Last year he allowed 17 home runs, and if he was pitching at Camden Yards it would have been 23. He's also a a sinker guy and you know Elias hates sinkerballers. I'm not thrilled that batters seemed to hit his sinker last year harder than in year's past. That's not a good sign for a pitcher entering his 30s. H's also a little guy so how much more is left in that arm? You wanna give a 5-7 right-hander a $100 million dollars to pitch in age years 31-35? Not a guy for me for 4 years.

Gotta see his first year in the big leagues and then you have to be careful with catchers breaking down around 30. Under the current CBA, Rutschman won't be eligible for free agency until he's 30 years old. At that point, the Orioles should be annual contenders and should have the finances to resign him if he's still good.

Wow! That's quite the investment on a young player. He's is a great talent though. He's going to be an amazing player to watch.

Yes, you got it. I was astounded by Hernandez's burst. Covering 4 more feet than an average outfielder between 1.6 and 3 seconds is pretty amazing. Here are the rest of he explanations: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/outfield_jump