Tony-OH

Zach Davies was a successful major league starting pitcher at 22 years old.

When I assess the most likely role of a player in the major leagues, it has nothing to do with the players within the organization. What I meant by what I said is that in the past, a guy with a most likely role as "backup catcher" or "middle reliever" has made the list at times, but the depth of the systems allows for guys like that to not make the Top 30 list. If I thought Cumberland could be a starting major league catcher, he'd be in the top 30.

We just have to agree to disagree as we're just repeating the same points. If the Orioles have to keep him in the minors to start the year for a few weeks then I can see them potentially doing so, but I don't see them keeping him in the minors this season like they will Rutschman when realistically, Rutschman is probably the best catcher in the organization right now including the major league catchers.

Maybe I missed it, but apparently two Orioles organization players played in the 18-game Puerto Rican Winter League in December/January. Here's what I found. Feel free to add anyone I missed if players played in some other Winter League. Criollos de Caguas Richie Martin - Played 14 games at SS and slashed .236/.323/.455/.777 Zach Muckenhirm - Dominated in 9.1 relief IPs, striking out 15, walking just one, and allowing just seven hits while putting up a 0.96 ERA. Jesmuel Valentín (Bowie, 2019) also played, but i believe he's a free agent and no longer in the organization as of last November. What does this all mean, nothing, but hey, it's a morsel of minor league action! Side note, Muckenhirm has the stuff to be a big leaguers but has not been able to command his stuff. the talent level from what I saw was all over the place from 32-year old former big leaguers to DSL players so can't really take anything out of this, but I guess it's nice to see him walk just one.

If Baumann was 22 or 23 vs 25, maybe. It's not that I'm not a believer in Baumann, its that good GMs don't game the system for an extra year of a 31 year old pitcher. I believe either he will be traded (most likely), turned into a reliever, or possibly extended long before we'd need to worry about getting an extra year before free agency.

I think the system is too deep for a backup catcher or middle reliever to make the list, which is a good thing. The days of needing to put potential backup catchers in the top 30 is hopefully behind us with the new found International pipeline adding to our 1st year player drafts and trades. I could definitely see a headliner from Mancini or Santander trade getting on the list, but I think the Orioles would have to eat some of Cobb's contract to get something back from him.

Eshleman is reading through this thread like, "Man, I thought this was about me!"

He's an interesting guy as well, just didn't know much about his control/command or the mechanics so it would e tough for him to jump on the scene unless he show up in the GCL and is pitching lights out with great stuff. then again, he's probably in the same class as Ortiz overall, just a lot of unknowns.

Haha, I'll give my thoughts in a bit, but I want to see what you guys are thinking!

Just as a follow up to our Beyond the Top 30 piece, who will be the prospect that is in the system now that is not in the top 30 (I added Hernandez and Basallo at #17 and #18), but will be in the end of season 2021 Top 30?

I will say watching Eshleman pitch is similar to watching a bomb squad diffuse a bomb. You hope he gets through it unscathed, but you are always prepared for it to go off.

Padres are going all in for next year. Wow!

I'd like to see them expand the number of games in the GCL. Perhaps make it a May - Sep League.

Yep, you're right, I do now remember reading that Elias said he would like to have two GCL teams when discussing losing a current team. Unless I missed it though, I haven't heard it officially yet though. Guess I can check.

This is true. I hope it's nothing, but we have definitely seen a history of guys shut down with elbow "strains", feel good over the winter when not pitching, then needing surgery. Let's hope not but I agree, I'll be holding my breath a bit until I see him healthy and throwing well this spring in games.

Agreed. I actually like see both him and Hernandez sharing some time at SS or if his arm isn't as strong, slide him over to 2B and see what they look like together.

We'll see, but I just don't see Elias concerned over control six years from now with a 25-year old. Plus, we don't know what the next bargaining agreement will hold for free agency or arbitration eligibility.

Honestly, we don't have much more information and the lost season last year makes it even worse. He'll play at 19-years old and with so many high draft picks ahead of him needing playing time between Low-A and High-A, I suspect he will start the year in the GCL League. With no NY-Penn League anymore, the Orioles will only have one rookie league team in the GCL Orioles so playing time will be at a premium. The 1st year player draft next year has been moved back to July 11-13 so that allows for some more playing time for guys. Now, the rub here is that the Orioles could choose to start Maikol Hernandez in the GCL if they think he's advanced enough to handle that. That could move Placencia to second base if the Orioles are high enough on him to bring him over to the states which considering the options right now, makes sense that they will.

Elias has typically been very methodical when it comes to promotions once a player hits A-ball and he did not show any inclination to "rush" a player up the chain or to the big leagues before putting in some time and success at a previous level. Michael Baumann has just 13 AA appearances (70 IP) so it's easy to just think Elias would want him to have success at AAA before having him compete for a big league job. One could also think that Elias would prefer an extra year of control for a pitcher with the upside of Baumann. My argument to that is two fold with Baumann. First, Baumann will pitch at 25 years old next year which means he'll be 31 when he's eligible for free agency. That to me suggests that player control will not be an issue. The second part is that Baumann was considered by several observers as the best pitcher at the alternate camp before coming down with elbow discomfort. To me, those were like AAA starts with the talent level of the hitters in camp for the most part so in Elias' head, he could be thinking he's gotten that AAA experience. The rotation this year barring injury should start with Means and Cobb, with Akin and Kremer having the inside track to the next two spots. Saying that, it's not like akin and Kremer can come into camp and just be terrible and get a spot, so I'd say they have spots as long as they don't implode in the spring. The last spot has these candidates right now: Zimmermann Baumann Jorge Lopez Ashton Goudeau Mac Sceroler Alexander Wells Baumann is clearly the best pitcher of these options though I think Zimmemann is better than what we saw last year since he had missed some time due to COVID along with the long layoff from the spring where he was throwing the ball well. One more thing about Elias doing things out of his norm is that AA and A ball will begin about a month late due to COVID concerns at spring training. This means we could see some players, potentially Rutschman, jumped to AAA in order to get them playing time. Rutschman was reportedly one of the best hitters at the alternate camp against the upper level pitching so it might not be a stretch to see him start the year in Norfolk and if he's not doing well, moved back to Bowie when their season starts.

He's 25 years old and will be 31 when he's eligible for free agency. I doubt Elias is worried about holding him back to get an extra year of control. The missed season has put a lot of what Elias typically has done in question.

I wonder if they will push Rutschman to AAA to get him extra PAs? It's not like there are prospects in his way.

If Baumann doesn't get hurt, I believe he would have gotten that call up instead of Kremer based on what I heard about them at the time. While Kremer does have a starting spot to lose at this point, I think Baumann could end up the 5th starter as well in this rotation if he's healthy and pitches well this spring.

He very well could, but I don't see them making the team out of spring training unless injuries occur to the young pitchers. 2021 to me is a transition year where the young guys will get there chances.

I think what some people fail to realize is how much the short season affected the normal draft rankings. Some guys like Kjerstad and Servideo were off to really good starts and had they kept it up through the entire season, they may have been ranked higher by pundits. It's hard to know whether they were off to great starts because they were playing the normal soft portion of the early season schedule, or was it genuine improvement. Austin Hays is a good example of how a guy's great junior year shot up his draft stock, but because it was his first real success, some were still a little bit of a non believer so he was available in the 3rd round still. If he only had part of a junior season, would he even had been drafted in a five round draft? All of these rankings have to be all considered with a grain of salt because of the lack of a minor league season and such short college and high school seasons.

I hope not. The Orioles have Akin, Kremer, Zimmermann, and Baumann all ready for major league opportunities behind Means and Cobb in the rotation. With Kevin Smith, Zac Lowther and Alex Wells all guys that should be at AAA this season and if they pitch well, could be worth giving opportunities as well. I don't think Lopez or Goudeau will be in the rotation, and I really doubt Elias that Elias is worried about bringing in a Milone-type of guy unless it's on a minor league contract and if a slew of injuries requires a veteran to take some starts until the latter guys are ready.