Tony-OH

I wish could help but not being around the major league team or minor league players for over a year now, it's made it hard to really know what's going on besides what we read. I would say that technological advances are being deployed that were not available back in the Astroball times so some of this is totally new so I don't think we can make just an apple to apples comparison. The Astro did find some hidden gems while Holt was there but you are right, some of there draft picks that were pitchers did not really pan out. Makes me wonder if that's why Elias has drafted so hitter heavy in his first two drafts. I wonder if he thinks he has more metrics on hitters or if hitters are a safer bet coming out of high school and college than pitchers. The first pitcher he gave a significant bonus to was Baumler and he's already on the shelf with TJ surgery.

Mountcastle does not have the arm strength or throwing motion to adequately play third base at any professional level. It's not "lore" or hearsay, but the absolute truth confirmed by scouting, the naked eye of the casual observer, and I'm sure trackmaster. His defense would be so poor there that it would offset his bat and take away the value he brings to the club. By the way, Ruiz is a literally an average defensive third baseman (0 OAA and 0% success added). His bat is what's below average (.286 WOBA in 812 career PAs and .298 last year) and the reason why he's a place holder until Westburg or Henderson arrives.

I'm all ready for a lot of "Ball coming out of his hand nicely" comments!

I thought I had read that the Orioles plan was to use him a starter before last season so not sure if I'm misremembering or what. He's also listed as a starter by Fangraphs's roster resource and was listed as a starter in OOTP 21. Saying all that, you very well could be right.

I like when Frobby does these comparisons because he respects our rankings and puts the OH rankings in there as the comparisons.

I see Sedlock being moved to the bullpen. If I had to make an educated guess, this will be Bowie's rotation barring injury: Hall Bradish Smith Marcos Diplan Connor Greene (though the team may want to move him to the pen and give him a chance in AAA) David Lebron seems to be a guy the team has liked at times so he could be in the running as well. Obviously there are a lot of bubble guys who could pushed out of AAA and back to AA that could affect things, and a pitcher like Brennan Hanifee could have a good spring and get a promotion, but those would be the guys with the inside track due to prospect status.

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Good catch, we can take him out of that running then. Still, Jannis appears ticketed to AAA this year unless something new has happened with that knuckleball and it's improved greatly.

Jannis is not a new knuckleball pitcher and he has been absolutely murdered by AAA hitters in 4 starts and while he's been good, it's not like he's been dominant against AA hitters (4.02 ERA and 1.36 WHIP) in 517.2 IP. He's a knucklballer so you just never know, but he's a guy that did not garner an official spring training invite last year or this year. He'll probably start the year in Norfolk's rotation with Baumann, Lowther, Wells, and Smith though Zimmermann could be there as well if he doesn't win an Orioles rotation spot. This whole things reminds me of spring training fluff more than an actual under the radar break out guy, but that's what spring training is ultimately for and he can prove it there.

Well they were going off the bad reports that said he was attending school rather than going to the instructional league workouts. Had it been reported correctly, they would have said he was attending school since he could not partake in baseball activities. I realize HIPPA rules get involve here when it comes to non-baseball related illnesses and injuries, but it could have been reported better. not sure if that was a reporting issue or an issue of the Orioles not being clear.

No, actually it proved those of us that knew there was more to the story than he just skipped baseball activity to focus on getting his degree. It also makes some of the people look foolish who were chastising those who felt a kid should focus on his career once he received such a large bonus because I can guarantee he would have been playing ball had he not been out for medical reasons. Saying all that, the most important part here is he seems to be on the mend and his health is the most important thing.

Glad to hear the pay is increasing for players and the travel will be less than in the past. I'm interested to see how the Draft League and the partner leagues will work. We already knew about the Orioles affiliates so no changes there. I still feel for Frederick on losing out of being an Orioles affiliate.

Good recap and assessment.

So like I thought, there was more to the story then he just missed the camps to focus on his degree. He was able to work on his degree because he could not play. Saying that, it sounds like he's recovering well but hearing he's still has a "lengthy" recovery makes me a little concerned about his season this year. Hopefully we see him playing a bit this spring and all is well for him to make his debut when Single-A/AA seasons start up.

Thread winners right here. Gave me a chuckle.

I don't see this happening at all. Akin and Kremer are as ready as they are going to be and if they see the minors this year it will be because they were completed ineffective in the rotation. Baumann will debut this year and Lowther probably too. The missed year means they can't just sit on guys in the minors. This season can not be about "eating innings" and trying to go for first pick. This needs to be an evaluation year where guys like Akin, Kremer, and Zimmermann are evaluated at the major league level and where Baumann, Lowther, Wells and Smith could get opportunities if they pitch well enough at AAA. Now LeBlanc, Hernandez or Harvey might be a guy they give a shot too if they an injury occurs or if Zimmermann struggles badly this spring, but if all three make this club it will be very disappointing from a fan standpoint and from a development standpoint.

The Norris and Miller trades were the kinds of trades you make when you have a legitimate World Series-caliber team like they did in 2014. Hader was the guy I didn't like getting traded but I was told Houston would not have done the deal without him. Obviously the Orioles came up short in 2104, but that does not mean the trades were the right thing to do. Whether we "won" or not I guess is up to the criteria people want to use, but Hader was turned into Fiers and Gomez, with both really being disappointments in Houston. I will say the Brewers won that Hader trade.

He was with Toronto after being traded, but this made me look up the rules. https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/league-info/transactions-glossary/#:~:text=A player becomes eligible to,any subsequent contract he signs. Outright assignments A player assigned outright to the minor leagues for the first time in his career must accept the assignment. Thereafter, a player has the choice of either 1) rejecting the assignment and becoming a free agent immediately, or 2) accepting the assignment and become a free agent at the end of the season if he has not been returned to the 40-man roster. A player with 3 years of Major League service may refuse an outright assignment and choose to become a free agent immediately or at the end of the season. A player with 5 years of Major League service who refuses an outright assignment is entitled to the money due according to the terms of his contract. Service Time A player earns Major League service time for each day he spends on the active (25-man) roster or on the Major League 15-day or 60-day disabled lists. A player also continues to earn service time while serving any disciplinary suspension or serving in the military. Under the CBA, 1 year of service is defined as 172 days. A player may earn up to 172 days of Major League service during a championship season (regular season), which lasts 187 calendar days. (Before the 2018 season, the season consisted of 183 days.) If a player is sent to the minor leagues on optional assignment for a total of less than 20 days during a season, he receives service time for the entire season. ---------------------------------------------------- So if I read this correctly, I think Fischer would be forced to accept the outright assignment to the minor leagues since this is his first time being outrighted, and he does not have three years of service time accrued from what I can tell. This might mean the only way to get him from Toronto would be to claim him or trade for him. At least I think that's the situation.

But as we know, this has nothing to do with jettisoning Stewart to pick up Fischer. I haven't seen anyone remotely say that and I certainly would not. This is about giving our coaches a a guy who hits the ball hard and see what they can do with him. If they can't do anything, you DFA at the end of spring training and probably get him through to the minors where they will have decent depth piece. Fischer doesn't get in the way of anyone currently in the system but adds to the depth. Honestly, my bigger concern is his defense but maybe there was something bothering last year when it seems his defense really feel off a cliff.

No argument from me. The perfect situation would be he makes it through waivers and can be signed to a minor league contract with a spring training invite.

Well again, if you look at his statcast hitting information and it suggest there's talent in there. Perhaps Elias may think a swing tweak could allow for him to tap into that bat speed and raw power. Goudeau, Lopez and Sulser are three guys I would drop off the 40-man to take a look. But saying that, if Elias thinks he will make it through waivers unclaimed, then just sign him to a minor league contract. I have no idea if he can get to his promise, but he's rolling into his prime age so if there's a good time to "break out" now would be it. I think he's worth a look, but Elias and company have much more data to go off of and probably are familiar with the guy so honestly, whatever they do I'm good with.

The x factor here is that Mullins has shown to have plus range as a center fielder and Fischer has been a below average defender wherever he's played in the outfield. I do think there is some upside with the bat with Fischer if they can tweak the swing and create more launch angle, but defensively they don't compare and I think Elias will want as much outfield defense as he can get in center if he needs to play Mountcastle in LF.

He's got the high exit velocity and hard hit % that Elias typically likes and his .333 XWOBA was over the major league average of .322 last year. His draw back is he doesn't appear to be a very good defensive outfielder. Despite his good sprint speed, he has poor reaction times and burst and he basically will catch anything hit right at him but his 2+ Star catch percentage last year was an awful 11.1% with a -2 OOA overall. Obviously this is a small sample size from last year in TOR, but his reaction and burst speed have not been good in any season. Now, the problem he's had at the plate despite the good exit velocities is his below average launch angle. He just hits a lot of balls on the ground which limits his effectiveness and game power. If Elias thinks they can tweak his stroke and get to that power, and if he thinks he can live with the defense, I could see Elias taking him and giving him a look in the spring. He honestly looks like a no-brainer to take a look at through a waiver claim and if there's no use for him, try to get him through waivers and into AAA as depth.

I don't believe I made that point either. I definitely understand the lure of going to games, and agree with you, I too enjoy being at the ball park with family and friends, but what I was trying to point out is that to get people out to games consistently in today's world, they need to provide a more immersive and social experience that people can't get elsewhere.

The stadium experience needs to provide something you don't get at home. Most of it in my mind revolves around the social aspect of going to game with friends or family because after all, if you really want to follow the game action and all the nuances, watching it at home with your computer up with Gameday, Baseball Savant, Twitter, and/or the Hangout message board is probably the most immersive experience. So keeping that in mind, it's time for teams to really take a look at how they do seating and how they provide social areas, and perhaps Camden Yards can become a leader in this aspect. The center field bar is the first "social area" where fans can have a drink and watch the ball game, but of course the team decided it was a better idea to sell the seats in the first two rows instead of having it as a first come first serve area where friends could meet up and watch the ball game with a nice view. That "sports bar" approach in my mind is definitely one that needs to be expanded but they really need to keep these places open where fans can congregate with others. Maybe build other areas like this in the stadium and they all don't have to revolve around a bar. Perhaps have an open area where there were places for small children to play where the parents could allow them to play a bit while they enjoy the game with other parents? Right now you have to go underneath the grandstand on the 1st base side and let them climb around, but you really only have a few TVs to watch the game and it's not the same as being out in the crowd and cheering together. As a poster mentioned before, the seating environment is not conducive towards talking with a bunch of people, especially if your group buys tickets in one row. I've always tried to offset this by putting my main party in a two row, four seat situation where you can kinda talk and cheer with your main friends and family. Perhaps there is way to configure more spacing between seating in little seating bowl areas that encourages groups? Maybe even add in some drop down tables for eating so your Boogs doesn't go all over the front of your shirt or on the grounds. Another thing that would add in some fun and excitement would be an in game app that allowed you to guess the next outcome at the plate, who will hit the first/next home run, have the most hits, etc). Maybe have a scoring system that would have inning by inning leaders, game leaders and season leaders and would have a leaderboard displayed somewhere. I think fans would like the idea of seeing their name on the screen if they had a good inning or game of guessing. Obviously this kind of thing is being brought in by teams with gambling in mind, and if it was connected in someway to that I guess that would encourage a whole other set of fans to attend and enjoy, but they need to have a free version that would be just for fun. Maybe even offer prizes like free tickets to future games or ticket upgrades for an inning winner? When people are fighting traffic, parking, and paying well over $200 for a family of four to attend, eat and have a drink or two, there needs to be an incentive to get people to do that vs sitting at home and watching the game on their 65 inch HD TV in the comfort of their homes. Everything should be about adding social opportunities and games/challenges that they don't get if they are home. FOMO is real with some people. They should use this to their advantage.