Tony-OH

They wear an Orioles uniform would be my guess. But you gotta love wildcards optimism.

Huh? Are you basing this off his minor league numbers last year after coming off mono? Give me a whole minor league season where he doesn't hit and I'll worry. I don't think he was ever 100% last year.

I think the difference in thinking here is you want everyone to " recognize the improvements" while many others don't feel we have enough data to make that assessment of real improvements vs a hot streak to start a season. Let's look at one of the guys you discussed: Rio Ruiz has some encouraging numbers between last year and this year. Stat 2019 2020 Dif xBA .233 .221 -.012 XSLG .362 .443 .081 xWOBA .297 .319 .022 Barrel% 2.8% 17.4% 14.6% 92nd percentile in MLB exitvel 88.4 91.7 3.3 MPH 85th percentile in MLB LA 11.3 15.6 4.3 K% 21.3% 28.2% 6.9% worse BB% 9.7% 12.8% 3.1% So it seems like Ruiz is hitting the ball with more authority, getting more launch angle, which is course has hurt his strikeout rate and expected batting average a bit. Right now his barrel and exit velocity is among the top in MLB. Pitchers are starting throw him a bit more offspeed this year to adjust so we will have to see how this goes as the season progresses. The improvement in exit velocity and barrels is impressive so he's actually one that I'm interested to follow and see if it levels out or if this is some kind of sustained improvement as he enters his peak years.

Well I think we would all take it as Orioles fans with team that was expected to finish last, but I was more referring to actual contending teams.

So looking at his stats he looks really unimpressive, but watching his stuff through some videos you can see the promise. I went over to baseball savant and looked at his statcast numbers and then watched random videos of his stuff. He's been used mainly as a starter and I think he might be better suited as a fastball/sinker and curveball guy out of the pen. His curveball can be a plus pitch at times (up to 84 MPH). The problem I see is it can roll up there at times closer to 80 MPH and it loses it's bite. https://sporty-clips.mlb.com/2b4f5c1c-bd75-4f76-8fd9-acff8cc8ef63.mp4 His sinker gets plus movement both vertically and horizontally at times but the pitch has been hit fairly effectively so I wonder if the Orioles will see if he can work on a true 4-seamer and see if he get more spin rate on the pitch. In 2019 he seemed to have more success in the upper part of the zone with his 4-seamer so it would make sense if they try to make him a 4-seamer/curveball guy out of the pen and see what it looks like. He needs to ditch the slider and change though. Neither are very good pitches.

Plus, what team is really going to go all in on this season with the expanded playoffs and craziness. Is anyone going to be crowing about being the 2021 "World Champions?" Not that I think the Orioles had a lot of great trading chips anyways, but I don't foresee teams giving up many prospects for guys at this trading deadline. I do still think Givens could gets traded though. I just don't expect a lot in return.

Or perhaps they aren't convinced that 14 games within a crazy season is enough to make a final assessment of whether the improvements are for real or not?

I'm glad you are enjoying the season and have a lot of optimism about the current group of players. While I do think there are some potential building block players (Hays, Santander, maybe even Alberto) on this current roster, I'm not convinced we've seen some major turn around. This is going to be very strange season and it's not out of the question that the Orioles find a way to stay competitive under these circumstances, but the reality is this team looks undermanned against every opponent. Maybe the coaching staff have found ways to get the most out of the current group and I do like the way Hyde is handling Wojo, Milone, Eshelman and LeBlanc with the extended bullpens, but I'm not convinced any of these guys are building blocks to sustained success after this season. I think we just need to enjoy this season for what it is, and don't get too caught up in anything one way of the other. This team is still 2-3 years from being consistently competitive over a full 162 game schedule and that's only if our current farm system starts to push out some impact players (Rutschman, Kjerstad?) and can rebuild a pitching staff while perhaps making a splash with a major league ready or nearly major league ready international signing.

I appreciate Wildcards's enthusiasm and optimism. This season is such a wildcard because of all the variables that really anything could happen and I wouldn't be overly surprised. Saying that, there is no reality where this is the beginning of a sustainable winning core. There is just as much of a chance of this team losing ten straight games as they do of keep playing .500 ball the rest of this season. As Drungo has point out, there are some guys who have started out this season way above their carer norms. Even if you believe Severino, Ruiz, Alberto and Nunez are breaking out as they enter their primes, does anyone think Cobb, Milone and Wojo are going to keep pitching to their current ERAs? Cobb maybe since it seems his splitter has come back, but I'm not buying long term sustainability on Milone and Hyde has used Wojo right but not letting him go more than twice through an order.

Best line of the day bar none!

Interesting. I haven't looked it up, but I wonder what's the HR rate compare to last year? I also would like to know the average game time (minus the 7-inning games) vs last year. BTW, I'm not asking you look it up, just wondering aloud.

Yeah, I can't remember so many calls getting called outside of the box this consistently by each umpire. It's not just the TV box either, you can go look at the pitch locations in baseball savant and see how many are well off the plate by a ball or two getting called strikes.

Might be, but it does seem like the strikezones have been expanded by the human umps.

I still think Hays is going to be a good players, he's just starting off in a bad funk. I don't think Mullins is a major league hitter and Stewart is 4th/5th outfield guy.

He has been a bit unlucky, but his 85.9 exit velocity is not good all. He's had some bad calls against him, but again, maybe he should try not getting behind 0-2 every at bat?

My son, "That Austin Hays guy is terrible. He can't hit. Every time I watch him he gets out." All I had was, ""He hit good last year. He's been pretty awful so far this year no doubt." Honestly, it's only 10 games in, but wow, he has been a major disappointment so far in 2020.

Marlins just pulling in guys from the local men's leagues to shut down the Orioles offense.

The way this team is hitting, the score might as well be 12-0.

We're just going to have to agree to disagree. I don't think Elias has any intent on trying to improve this team. He's goal is to give guys opportunities in order to evaluate them for the future first and foremost. His trade of Bleier weakened the bullpen, so how does that strengthen the team? Are you expecting an actual good prospect in return? Why would the Marlins give up a good prospect for a 33-year old reliever when they were literally trying to scratch together a roster? If it was contending team I could see the potential to get some kind of return, but it appears Elias saw this as an opportunity to strengthen the roster of a team that will be competing with the Orioles most likely for one of the worse records over the last two seasons which is what I think MLB will take into consideration when they set the order for the 2021 draft.

I think everything Elias does is with the big goal in mind and winning this season does nothing to help that. He went into this season knowing he was "tanking" once again and although he can never say this publicly, you don't trade away one of your best relievers a week into the season to another team that may be competing with you for worse record overall unless you have the big picture in mind. Obviously there are so many wild cards this year that really anything could happen, but let's be honest here, it does not do this franchise any good to just miss out on the expanded playoffs and then lose draft position in 2021 draft. I imagine trades of Givens, LeBlanc and Milone to happen if they continue to pitch well and especially if the Orioles find ways to keep winning.

I'm thinking the MLB needs to definitely put the 2020 and 2019 records together to sort out the draft next year. No way they can go off this weird 2020 mini season.

True, and they will probably be good enough to make the playoffs because of their pitching, particularly their bullpen. This is such a wild card year though it's crazy. Who really knows?