Tony-OH

Yep, that's the general consensus of his doubters like you. The game is changing, as is that separation. Mountcastle is going to be an impact bat at the major league level.

Who will be the #13 and #14 prospects?

https://www.orioleshangout.com/2019/11/10/orioles-12-prospect-keegan-akin-lhp/

https://www.orioleshangout.com/2019/11/10/orioles-11-prospect-dean-kremer-rhp/

At some point these Mountcastle "doubters" are going to realize they did not account for age vs level and did not put enough emphasis on the ability to hit for average.

I'm out of my free articles.

Who will be the #11 and #12 prospects?

Talk to me after the top 30 is finished and maybe I can give you some sleepers. Thanks by the way.

True, and I'm of the opinions that he took a step forward this year which is why this prospect stuff is so fun to do!

You will not get any arguments from me. No one really thinks Davis can improve at this point, not even Davis is appears. So I guess he has to decide for himself is worth the money to cash those big checks when you know you are not earning it any longer. I'm sure he's thinking he was worth more than he was being paid during his big years so this evens it out, but it's just honestly embarrassing at this point as he continues to destroy whatever legacy he has left. He has to have enough money for him and his family to be well off for several generations. The question is at this point, does he even care about his legacy, fans, teammates, coaches or organization more than packing his stuffed bank account even more. Ok, that's it with Davis talk from me. This is Mountcastle's thread. I think he will be fun if he's battling Austin Hays for rookie of the year honors next year.

Everyone has different criteria on where they rank guys. My criteria has been explained and it's what I fall back on as we discuss the rankings. It's ok if you have different thoughts.

I don't think either of us have a great feel for him at this stage. I'm always leery of high schoolers the year after their draft and don't put a ton into their stats put up in rookie ball. Rick Elder, Chip Alley, Xavier Avery, Bryan Bass and Brandon Snyder (who went straight to Bluefield and skipped GCL) all hit well in rookie ball in their debuts as well regarded (1st or 2nd round) High School draft picks. It really doesn't say a ton either way unless they fail miserably and even then, they could have just had a long layoff or were struggling with being away for the first time. Derek Jeter (.202/.296/.312/.609) and Chipper Jones (.229/.321/.271/.592) are notable players who failed miserably in their first taste of rookie league ball after being drafted. Things worked out ok for them. Hernaiz is going to be on this list and we are already being pretty aggressive with him. He'll be an interesting follow next season.

You can only take so much from GCL stats and both had less than 125 PAs. Henderson was taken in the 2nd round and Hernaiz in the 5th because of their tools. At this point, there is no concrete data to say which one is ahead of the other so you have to go off pure tools which Henderson gets the nod. Saying that, Hernaiz could very well end up the better prospect down the road because he does have a better chance of sticking at SS than Henderson. Both should be at Delmarva next year and then we'll have some more data to go off of. Plus, both Luke and I will have seen them play outside of the scouting videos and some quick clips in the GCL by this point.

I will admit I'm higher on him then most, including Luke. I could be wrong, but I just feel it in my bones that he's going have success a major league starter. I just see a lot of bad swings against him and when he mixes his pitches, he's really hard to hit even when his command isn't great. I do know a scout who like me, likes him more than Baumann overall. In the end though, I was swayed to put Baumann over Lowther and it's certainly the safer bet. But, if I had a gun to my head and someone asked me if I could only have one, I would have taken Lowther over Baumann, but it is close due to Baumann significant velocity advantage. Like their grades though suggest, they are the same kind of prospect for us.

Thanks, that does sound like Chris Davis. Hopefully that will be information Elias will be able to use next spring when he needs to convince the Angelos brothers to let him release him. If Davis really feels this way, he should retire. He's basically saying he's not going to get better. Now, I don't think Davis has it in him to walk away from the money owed him, but he would, he would at least gain some respect in my eyes if he did.

On July 6, 2016 Bundy averaged 96.8 MPH on his fastball in a 2.1 shutout IP stint in which he struck out 7, walked 2 and allowed 3 hits. They don't break it down past the game average, but the was his highest day in the major leagues, so it's certainly possible he hit 98 once. His highest avg as a starter? His major league debut at 94.4. Since? 93.5 in 2017? In 2019? 92.4 in August 14th.

I would be utterly shocked if Mountcastle "pulled a Sisco". Then again, I had concerns about Sisco's bat when he K rate started going up and his struggles in AAA.

I must've missed that. Where was that reported? Thanks.

Thanks. I can understand that line of thinking and perhaps Mountcastle does belong in his own category, but here's why I think he belongs at this point. One, Rutchsman hasn't played above Low-A and although his tools should make him an impact player, we haven't seen him put up a full season of dominance. Mountcastle is only a year older than Rutschman so when Rutschman plays next year he will be he same age as Mountcastle was this year and will most likely be playing at a much lower level. As for the pitchers, if they end up at their mid-rotation most likely, that would be very close to the occasional All-Star ceiling for Mountcastle. So I guess I'm saying is that Mountcastle is going to hit and he's going to be impactful to the point that I think he ends up on some All-Star teams. The other three are all about promise and their risk factors are higher.

Well I will assume this question is to me since I had final say on the rankings. The potential impact of Henderson as an everyday impact bat outweighs a reliever profile on my mind. Yes, there is a little doubt that Harvey is a safer bet outside of his injury risk which still remains high until he can put up an entire season without being shutdown for a period of time. We have in the past put players like Machadon, Bundy, Britton, Eduardo Rodriguez and Jonathan Schoop pretty high in our rankings before they played above rookie ball. Sometimes the potential impact outweighs a player who is major league ready but ha a lower ceiling.

I think we will probably have Lowther higher than some others folks, but at the end of the day, I think when you add all his sums up it makes up for his lack of velocity. the batters tell you that right now and although the real test will be at the major league level, he's passed every test he's been given with flying colors. Plus, his fastball plays up over it's 89-90 sit and I like the fact he reaches back for 92 on occasion when he wants it.

It certainly couldn't hurt for his fastball to tick up a MPH or two, but his release point is closes to home than most so that help to allow it to play up.

Stuff took a step back this year, particularly the swing and miss on the fastball. There are more concerns of him sticking as a starter now which limits his profile over guys we think have better chances of staying in the rotation and power relievers like Harvey!

https://www.orioleshangout.com/2019/11/08/orioles-10-prospect-hunter-harvey-rhp/

https://www.orioleshangout.com/2019/11/08/orioles-9-prospect-gunnar-henderson-ss/