now

... or Zach Britton? I see definite echoes there in Tony's high praise and description of his stuff: the "bowling ball" fastball, and "ground ball inducing machine who also misses bats" Yes, please!

OMG that's a depressing list. That has to be the nadir of the dark age... two years past the great selloff of 2000, and ten years to go until the 2012 playoffs breakthrough. I'd wager that list has the lowest total WAR of any Orioles team ever. Just the name "Leslie Brea"... I'll stop it there. (Except I confess, I was prob'ly wearing Orange glasses then in spite of it all).

As for Corey, there's playoffs moxie (clutch power). Which maybe gets to makeup, which is supposedly 80 for Holliday, so there's hope.

Interesting that you characterize Norby as a RH power hitter and @btdart20 calls him a LD hitter. If I go with the latter and believe in his improved defense then there's a place for him in Baltimore playing and hitting to left.

You've highlighted the main limitations for me. If he can reach the 60 power that's a game changer. The SS/2B issue is lesser, I guess, but SS is the more premium position, or one where you hope to see more premium tools. On the other hand, the Orioles are exceptional in having, it appears, three other premium defensive SS options already (Mateo, Henderson, Ortiz), so Holliday at 2B is a super consolation prize if that's what it comes to.

I'm not saying the experts (incl. Tony) or the rankings are wrong. So I guess it's just caution for myself and others not to get too overboard with expectations. Especially when the projections and performance aren't earth shattering for every tool: Tools (current/future value) Hit: 45/70 Game Power: 40/55 Raw Power: 40/60 Run: 55/55 Defense: 45/55 Most Likely Future Role: Starting 1st Division SS or 2B Ceiling: 1st Division Starting SS, multiple All-Star appearances I admit, Tony never said HOF either, even as ceiling. So maybe JH is no Acuna or Soto, Mantle or Honus Wagner. That's okay to have a multiple All-Star second-baseman (like Adley at catcher). I guess our eyes get so big over prospect hype (Wieters, Bundy), that it's easy to get those hopes dampened when they're not Jesus or Superman after all, just damn good ballplayers.

Selling high on Hays would help matters.

Despite the high hit tool and OBP, I can't help but feel Holliday is overrated as an elite, #1 prospect. Maybe it's just that, of the 5 tools you might expect from such a lofty perch, the "above average" rating for speed, defense and homerun power just seems underwhelming, especially if his position ends up being 2B. I'm no expert but even judging by Tony's writeup, I find Basallo, Mayo and even Kjerstad more exciting. And I'm no chick either, but I guess this means I just dig the long ball. On the other hand, Holliday's skills certainly complement the big boppers in the lineup. In that respect (and in terms of the catcher's hype as the second coming of the switch-hitting Jesus), Holliday seems to me in the same category as Adley Rutschman. Of course, as Tony also points out, the makeup is off the charts for both players so maybe that will prove the difference maker for these players to be truly elite, HOF talents as advertised.

I can see the logic of too much risk for a pitcher in the all-important first round. But doesn't it hold throughout? Yes, 2023 seemed to signal a new trend (for Elias) of pitching depth in the lower rounds. But with any given pick, the injury risk factor is still going to favor the position player. We should see soon if the theory of trading hitting prospects for established pitchers becomes a reality. Perhaps... On the other hand, the FA route, cheaper analytical pickups, and trading position vets (Hays, Mullins, Santander) for high pitching prospects (a la Johnson, McDermott, Povich) might remain the preferred, lower-risk route to acquiring pitchers.

As of a few years back it seemed the conventional wisdom was to have the #2 catcher be a "catch and throw" guy. I wonder where Elias is at, on that score.

I think Kjerstad's a lock for OD, and Ortiz if he's not traded. Kjerstad just looked ready last year, with his playoff spot as further evidence.

I look at it as simple math: more RH opposing pitchers >> more LH Oriole batters

Can we now all acknowledge the Orioles have an "ace" and legit "#1" starter in our rotation?

Brings to mind our own Jorge Mateo. I wonder how those two will compare... and if they will ever end up playing together.

I wonder why the Orioles would be linked to only one of the top 50.

Yeah really. With our pipeline of top talent coming in the next couple of years, those seasons of "tanking" are the gift that keeps on giving.

Different forum, but thanks for the link.

Can someone remind what the bonus is for this award--in next year's draft, an extra pick?

No doubt, but that's fine. Just my intuition. We'll see how they compare five years from now.

I agree. I want them on the major league roster, over the likes of Urias, Mateo, Hays, Frazier, even Mountcastle.

True, and I'm fine with that. I confess I hate to lose any of those prospects. My pecking order to keep would be: Henderson, Holliday, Mayo, Ortiz, Norby, Westburg. That could include utility and outfield spots as well as IB, DH, and platoon... but if any have to leave the ship, go in reverse order in the above list.

Today's column at MLB.com observes, "if Jackson Holliday, Gunnar Henderson, and Jordan Westburg are all in the 2024 infield, then prospect infielders Coby Mayo (No. 4 Orioles prospect per MLB Pipeline), Joey Ortiz (No. 6) and/or Connor Norby (No. 7) may be best served as trade bait for high-level pitching. A bunch of assumptions there but one I take issue with: trading Mayo instead of Westburg. To this fan's eye Mayo is far more valuable, mainly because of the big power that Westburg so far hasn't shown.

Just want to take issue with the limitation of your trade scope, as in moving the needle immediately. Trading one of our top bats and closer (Mancini and Lopez) in 2022 brought back young talent (Povich, McDermott, Seth Johnson, and others) that will move the needle later; and Cano was a major factor in 2023 success.

If the general consensus is that the 2023 season was a failure because of the last three games against Texas, then I guess the door is wide open for an all-youth roster in 2024. Why not?

Right, there are basically two different seasons, long and short, likely with distinct winners for each. We want to think in the old way, Year XXXX Champions, yay! But now we have to divide our expectations and enthusiasm into two boxes, each with an asterisk: * Regular season (large sample size): Who's built for the long haul? * Playoffs (small sample size): Who's hot and who's not? Even in the old system, fans gave disproportionate importance to the 7-game World Series winner, overshadowing the season-long records. For further nuance, teams like the 100-win 1980 Orioles are forgotten since they finished second that year. At least with the new system they get a fighting chance at redemption. (Same goes for the 1981 and 1982 O's which also missed pennants, by only 1 game each. Which is another kind of small sample size.) So between the division or league's best record, and the playoff championship, which one is more meaningful and which is the consolation prize? Personally I give more weight to the former. But hey, we get to have a shot at both. They don't need to have the same outcome, since they are different ways of recognizing "the best."