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DrungoHazewood

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Everything posted by DrungoHazewood

  1. Anyway, that may or may not be the same home run that some claimed rolled onto a cart, which had it's contents dumped onto a ship in the Harbor, which then took it all the way to China. That's the home run that inspired someone to paint "Here" on the fence at Union Park, which was echoed in the HERE flag marking the point where Frank Robinson's home run left Memorial Stadium.
  2. Today there's a story on baseballhistorydaily.com discussing a very long home run hit by Joe Jackson at the Polo Grounds, claiming it was the longest ever. But they go on to say that Dan Brouthers and the members of the old 1800s Orioles immediately disputed this claim, saying that a ball hit by Brouthers at Union Park was much further. But know, or at least strongly suspect, that the RF fence at Union Park was nothing like 500'. It was more like 350' down the line and 390' in deepest right. My measurements would have to be off by so much the rest of the park doesn't make any sense for RF to be close to 500'. I guess that doesn't matter so much because Brouthers and others claimed that the ball didn't stop rolling until it hit something on Guilford Avenue almost 1500 feet away. I think Guilford is what was then N. Calvert on the map above. It seems unlikely that a) a ball could roll unimpeded to N. Calvert St. and that b) that distance doesn't look like 1500'.
  3. I don't know, depends on how stubborn Boggs and his coach were. Some people deviate and succeed. Hanser Alberto exists in a world of Mark Trumbos. But the deck is stacked against them.
  4. Sure. But my main point is that Wade Boggs wouldn't be allowed to be Wade Boggs today. His 12U coach would have told him to try to hit every ball off the 340' sign in right.
  5. Teams are run by the guys who also set the rules for the leagues. So they develop this interest in maintaining the status quo. If you spend a lot of time and money and acquisition resources on three true outcome players, or three-point shooters you're not going to go lobby the league to make those things less valuable. You're going to focus on today's wins, and maybe tomorrow's wins. You don't care so much about the game in 10 or 20 years being all out of whack and less enjoyable to the fans. That's one reason why I like the idea (although rarely the implementation of) a body like FIFA. A sport's governing body outside of the control of a league that can take in a variety of stakeholder inputs and make proactive changes. Someone who is tasked with the care and feeding and growth of the sport in general. Unfortunately FIFA is also an object lesson on the influence of money and corruption.
  6. Today a Wade Boggs would be told at the age of 11 that he needed to use a lighter bat and really start driving the ball every at bat. There wouldn't be all those sub-optimal opposite-field singles, because he'd have been raised knowing that line drives to RF were the goal. If he refused he'd get a scouting report like "slow bat, poor launch angle, below-average glove and running speed. Not a prospect."
  7. Santander's +8 fielding runs in RF is the 4th-highest total in modern Orioles history. In 37 games. Probably not something we can count on going forward.
  8. I wish MLB could get us back to a world where contact is valuable.
  9. That depends on how you define great. Here's a list of everyone by WAR in their first eight years. Only a handful of the top 50 aren't HOFers, and probably 90% of the top 100 is in or probably will be. Not too many players were epic for 6-10, then bad afterwards. Nomar, Wally Berger, Vada Pinson, Ken Boyer (I guess)... Cesar Cedeno. Sisler had the eye thing. Hughie Jennings had a five-year run of 35 wins, and an entire career worth 42. But 80-90% of the time if you're really great in your mid-20s you're at least pretty good for a while after that. Although when you put up 40-50 WAR in your first eight you might go to the Hall if you get hit by a train in year 10.
  10. It's probably easier to last forever at catcher than anywhere else, since a lot of teams don't care if their backup catcher OPSes .580, and the defensive metrics for catchers are hard to gauge so stories and legends hold more weight.
  11. There's really no shortage in guys who're backup catchers into their mid-to-late 30s, or longer. These are the leaders in most seasons with less than 100 games played, 80%+ at catcher: Rk Name Yrs From To Age 1 Val Picinich 18 1916 1933 19-36 Ind. Seasons 2 Tom Prince 17 1987 2003 22-38 Ind. Seasons 3 Bob OFarrell 17 1915 1935 18-38 Ind. Seasons 4 Buck Martinez 16 1969 1986 20-37 Ind. Seasons 5 Pop Snyder 16 1873 1890 18-35 Ind. Seasons 6 Jeff Mathis 15 2006 2020 23-37 Ind. Seasons 7 Sandy Alomar 15 1989 2007 23-41 Ind. Seasons 8 Rick Dempsey 15 1969 1992 19-42 Ind. Seasons 9 Malachi Kittridge 15 1890 1906 20-36 Ind. Seasons 10 Deacon McGuire 15 1884 1912 20-48 Ind. Seasons 11 Chief Zimmer 15 1886 1903 25-42 Ind. Seasons 12 David Ross 14 2002 2016 25-39 Ind. Seasons 13 Jose Molina 14 1999 2014 24-39 Ind. Seasons 14 Todd Pratt 14 1992 2006 25-39 Ind. Seasons 15 Kelly Stinnett 14 1994 2007 24-37 Ind. Seasons 16 Chad Kreuter 14 1988 2003 23-38 Ind. Seasons 17 Rick Cerone 14 1975 1992 21-38 Ind. Seasons 18 Charlie OBrien 14 1985 2000 25-40 Ind. Seasons 19 Lou Criger 14 1897 1912 25-40 Ind. Seasons 20 Wilbert Robinson 14 1887 1902 23-38 Ind. Seasons 21 Ramon Castro 13 1999 2011 23-35 Ind. Seasons 22 Henry Blanco 13 1999 2013 27-41 Ind. Seasons 23 Mike Difelice 13 1996 2008 27-39 Ind. Seasons 24 Mark Parent 13 1986 1998 24-36 Ind. Seasons 25 Junior Ortiz 13 1982 1994 22-34 Ind. Seasons 26 Jeff Reed 13 1984 2000 21-37 Ind. Seasons 27 Duffy Dyer 13 1968 1981 22-35 Ind. Seasons 28 Del Rice 13 1945 1961 22-38 Ind. Seasons 29 Rollie Hemsley 13 1928 1947 21-40 Ind. Seasons 30 Glenn Myatt 13 1921 1936 23-38 Ind. Seasons 31 Silver Flint 13 1875 1889 19-33 Ind. Seasons 32 Mike Redmond 12 1998 2010 27-39 Ind. Seasons 33 Gary Bennett 12 1996 2008 24-36 Ind. Seasons 34 Paul Bako 12 1998 2009 26-37 Ind. Seasons 35 Humberto Quintero 12 2003 2014 23-34 Ind. Seasons 36 Doug Mirabelli 12 1996 2007 25-36 Ind. Seasons 37 Alberto Castillo 12 1995 2007 25-37 Ind. Seasons 38 Don Slaught 12 1982 1997 23-38 Ind. Seasons 39 Marc Hill 12 1973 1986 21-34 Ind. Seasons 40 Alan Ashby 12 1973 1989 21-37 Ind. Seasons 41 Larry Haney 12 1966 1978 23-35 Ind. Seasons 42 Andy Etchebarren 12 1962 1978 19-35 Ind. Seasons 43 Clyde McCullough 12 1940 1956 23-39 Ind. Seasons 44 Hobie Landrith 12 1950 1963 20-33 Ind. Seasons 45 Bob Swift 12 1941 1953 26-38 Ind. Seasons 46 Ken ODea 12 1935 1946 22-33 Ind. Seasons 47 Gene Desautels 12 1930 1946 23-39 Ind. Seasons 48 Ray Hayworth 12 1926 1945 22-41 Ind. Seasons 49 Zack Taylor 12 1920 1935 21-36 Ind. Seasons 50 Ivey Wingo 12 1911 1929 20-38 Ind. Seasons 51 Otto Miller 12 1910 1922 21-33 Ind. Seasons 52 Eddie Ainsmith 12 1910 1924 20-34 Ind. Seasons 53 Jack Warner 12 1895 1908 22-35 Ind. Seasons 54 Billy Sullivan 12 1899 1916 24-41 Ind. Seasons 55 Ed McFarland 12 1896 1908 22-34 Ind. Seasons 56 Doc Bushong 12 1875 1890 18-33 Ind. Seasons 57 Jack Clements 12 1886 1899 21-34 Ind. Seasons 58 Yorvit Torrealba 11 2001 2013 22-34 Ind. Seasons 59 Wil Nieves 11 2002 2014 24-36 Ind. Seasons 60 Gerald Laird 11 2003 2015 23-35 Ind. Seasons 61 Corky Miller 11 2001 2013 25-37 Ind. Seasons 62 Gregg Zaun 11 1995 2010 24-39 Ind. Seasons 63 Lenny Webster 11 1989 2000 24-35 Ind. Seasons 64 Greg Myers 11 1987 2005 21-39 Ind. Seasons 65 Sal Fasano 11 1996 2008 24-36 Ind. Seasons 66 Raul Chavez 11 1996 2009 23-36 Ind. Seasons 67 Steve Lake 11 1983 1993 26-36 Ind. Seasons 68 Phil Roof 11 1961 1977 20-36 Ind. Seasons 69 Ron Hodges 11 1973 1984 24-35 Ind. Seasons 70 Bill Fahey 11 1971 1983 21-33 Ind. Seasons 71 Johnny Oates 11 1970 1981 24-35 Ind. Seasons 72 Rube Walker 11 1948 1958 22-32 Ind. Seasons 73 Joe Ginsberg 11 1948 1962 21-35 Ind. Seasons 74 Les Moss 11 1946 1957 21-32 Ind. Seasons 75 Al Evans 11 1939 1951 22-34 Ind. Seasons 76 Moe Berg 11 1928 1939 26-37 Ind. Seasons 77 Jimmie Wilson 11 1923 1940 22-39 Ind. Seasons 78 Ray Mueller 11 1935 1951 23-39 Ind. Seasons 79 Arndt Jorgens 11 1929 1939 24-34 Ind. Seasons 80 Gus Mancuso 11 1928 1945 22-39 Ind. Seasons 81 Mike Gonzalez 11 1912 1932 21-41 Ind. Seasons 82 Clyde Manion 11 1920 1934 23-37 Ind. Seasons 83 Hank Gowdy 11 1913 1930 23-40 Ind. Seasons 84 Oscar Stanage 11 1906 1925 23-42 Ind. Seasons 85 Hank DeBerry 11 1916 1930 21-35 Ind. Seasons 86 Muddy Ruel 11 1915 1934 19-38 Ind. Seasons 87 Josh Billings 11 1913 1923 21-31 Ind. Seasons 88 Art Wilson 11 1909 1921 23-35 Ind. Seasons 89 Tom Needham 11 1904 1914 25-35 Ind. Seasons 90 Mike Kahoe 11 1895 1909 21-35 Ind. Seasons 91 Con Daily 11 1885 1896 20-31 Ind. Seasons 92 Charlie Bennett 11 1880 1893 25-38 Ind. Seasons 93 Drew Butera 10 2010 2020 26-36 Ind. Seasons 94 Rene Rivera 10 2004 2020 20-36 Ind. Seasons 95 Ryan Hanigan 10 2007 2017 26-36 Ind. Seasons 96 Francisco Cervelli 10 2008 2020 22-34 Ind. Seasons 97 Bobby Wilson 10 2008 2019 25-36 Ind. Seasons 98 Chad Moeller 10 2000 2010 25-35 Ind. Seasons 99 Koyie Hill 10 2004 2014 25-35 Ind. Seasons 100 Chris Stewart 10 2006 2018 24-36 Ind. Seasons
  12. I think what you mean is if framing is as impactful as the most extreme outliers say, prior to regressing to true talent levels. Hey, I don't like framing either. But the available data says it has some moderate impact, at least until they fix that part of the game.
  13. Oh, so he's not really a save situation specialist. Which means you're assuming that he can hit, at least minimally. Really what you're talking about is a standard issue backup catcher with emphasis on framing. Which likely means that, on average, he'll be worse than a normal backup catcher in hitting and other fielding aspects. Also, +50 is the framing equivalent of 73 homers. Far more likely your framing specialist is going to be +15 per season, meaning his 40 or 50 games a year are going to be worth +5 runs.
  14. And we've been over this before. A top closer pitches 60-70 innings a year, out of a team's 1450-odd innings. So if a catcher was worth an outlandish +50 framing runs per 150 games, he'd be worth two runs/year as a save-framer. Maybe as much as four if you include leverage. Your specialist catcher would be worth a fraction of a LOOGY, a role that's already so specialized that it's arguable they're not worth carving out a roster spot for.
  15. Wild, somewhat related tangent: I wonder if baseball's deep-seated conservatism when it comes to rules changes and technological advances like RoboUmps comes from the very long development path? In football if they change something fundamental you just go out and draft guys the next year to account for that, and that year they're in the NFL. In MLB if they go to RoboUmps and immediately eliminate framing, every system has like six or eight catchers down to rookie ball who were (at least in part) drafted and in development because they frame well. All that future value has now been zeroed out, and you have to go find differently-skilled catchers not only for now, but for the next half-decade.
  16. Wouldn't the eye test, in this case, show you that things were happening but not help to reach any conclusions about how effective they were? If players were randomly positioned before each pitch some of the time the ball would be hit right at someone. But you need a control and/or some kind of bookkeeping and analysis to tease out the positive or negative impact.
  17. Modern stats say he was great. My question would be whether most of that advantage would now be negated by everyone being positioned nearly optimally all the time.
  18. Some people still can't get past the idea that shortstops are supposed to be 5' 8" 165.
  19. bb-ref's fielding runs that come from at least a couple systems depending on the timeframe. But basically centered at zero, an average team or performance is 0. For individuals +10 is very good, +20 is pretty epic. The Orioles (mostly Belanger and Cal, with at least one Bordick season) have had 13 +20 seasons. The O's have been so good that Luis Aparicio's best year is 19th, and he's in the Hall mostly for fielding. The O's median SS performance since '54 is something like +10, which is at least in the Gold Glove conversation.
  20. JJ always looked like he was hurting, but only '15 and '17 did it have a big impact on his performances. It's not completely coincidental that his two hurt years were the O's worst seasons from 2012-17.
  21. Acquired for Brett Jacobson and Jim Hoey, neither of whom appeared in the majors after 2011. Jacobson had 17 innings in AAA. The Orioles won that trade in a lopsided shutout.
  22. Cross-posting from Bill James' site, but a cool observation: Top 8 franchises, SS fielding runs, since 1954: Orioles 602 White Sox 352 Cardinals 327 Royals 191 Pirates 159 Angels 153 Giants 139 Not really close. At the other end, Padres are -351 and Houston is -285. No one else in that neighborhood. Data from bb-ref. The Orioles are farther ahead of #4 than #4 is from average. This puts Belanger, Cal, Bordick, Hardy, Aparicio and the rest in an objective context.
  23. Yea, like if Mancini started the game with 22 homers, then hits another in the 4th inning, the app will show he has 23.
  24. Billy the Kid. After 20 some years of Mr. Angelos I'd be okay with a few years of Mr. The Kid.
  25. I just hope that whoever is the next owner of the Orioles is the opposite of a lawyer. Whatever that is.
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