DrungoHazewood

Just so long as they're healthy going forward. Luis Matos' struggles could have been injury related, and then his MLB career was over at 27.

Once again I'll bring up my plan to remove the center field fence and put the turf area in front of the 30' wall out in between the bullpens and bleachers in play. There'd be a half dozen inside-the-park homers a year!

Those are load-bearing walls, they're not coming down!

By JAWS Adam Jones is the 79th-best CFer in Major League baseball history. I think it's down to Adam or Brady for 2nd-best CFer in team history. It would be pretty astounding if Hays could be mentioned in the same breath as those players. Right now he's about where Rich Coggins, Luis Matos, maybe Steve Finley, John Shelby were at his age. Damon Buford. Felix Pie. I think Hays could and should be a better defender than Jones. If only because he will not be able to push back on management when they tell him to play where the metrics say he should.

It's not always or even usually linear, incremental steps. The 2006 Rays had a 5.58 ERA. Flatly abysmal. The 2007 Rays had a 3.82.

1) The Orioles haven't given us much hope the last few years that we're on the verge of reaching Asia by sailing west. 2) Fans in general tend to think that teams move in predictable, linear steps. They'll win 60 this year, 70 the next, 80, then 90. But probably more often they do things like 63, 67, 67, 93. In 2011 we had many discussions about whether the O's would be in contention in '15 or '18, but certainly no earlier. We had the same discussions in '06 about '10 or '12 or later.

I'd hope that a team chock full of youngsters wouldn't have to (or certainly want to) stretch a RFer to play center. Although you might have to when Hayes pulls a Pete Reiser... But also, Diaz has always played mostly corners. I don't know of many players who were predominantly corner outfielders at 21/22 who then became good MLB center fielders. It's wishful thinking, like pondering Mountcastle at second.

Kind of feels like Bundy or Hunter Harvey, doesn't he? Like we've been talking about him for a long time.

Is 65 wins this year, 75 next, and 85 in 2022 that outrageous? Or something like 60, 72, 90 happens all the time. The Astros went from 51 wins in 2013 to playoffs in 2015. Starting in 2012 the Cubs went 61, 66, 73, 97. The Tigers were in the Series in '06 after winning 43 in '03. About every 20 years for the last century the Braves have a season where they go from 65 wins to 90. It may not be likely that they're contenders in '22, but it's not a huge reach. It doesn't require a '89 or '12 level miracle.

I guess the injuries are the reason behind his wild swings in performance? .958 OPS between A and AA at 21. Then .703 in AA the next. Then .763 between three levels this year, and a .947 in the majors. The high end looks great, but what's real? He had Jones' achilles heel, in that his career high in walks is 27. Just once I'd like a prospect who walks 80 times a year.

Have to say I don't quite get the pessimism here. Last year Villar was a 4.0 win player, the year before 2.7, then 0.1, then 3.9. One bad year out of the last four. I weight things 4-3-2-1, so I have his established value as 2.8 wins. He's 29, so the decline should be relatively small. But Steamer has it as a full win off his established level, and well below his last two seasons. I'd put him at more like 2.5 wins for '20.

Yes, but I don't even know if it's allowed. I'm not entirely sure a MLB team can sell a contract to another league, and even if they can probably not without the player's consent. The contract is with MLB. Not a completely separate, independent league. Lawyers and agents would have to get pretty creative to pull this off. But I think it's worth it for the complete absurdity of it all. How can you not love a place where you take a guy who didn't bat for four years and suddenly hits like Barry Bonds? It would be a perversely perfect bookend for Chris Davis' weird career.

Here's how you save money on Davis: you sell him to the Pecos League. That's the lowest level of all the Indy Leagues. And they average 7.5 runs a game. Davis could probably OPS 1.000 in a league where he's facing the equivalent of 66th-round draft picks in a stadium that sits at 6000 ft altitude. The Santa Fe Fuego would love to have him. Last season they had a guy named Sherman Graves who they converted to the field after being a mediocre pitcher at Savannah State, and he hit .432 and OPS'd 1.287. I'm guessing the going salary in the Pecos League is about $800 a month. Davis has three years left, six months of the season... 800 times six times three... carry the one... If the O's eat all but $14,400 of Davis' deal I bet someone would bite. That's $14,400 that could go to hire a roving area scout, or to help build the locker room in the new Dominican complex.

Why? Davis is owed $69M plus some deferred money, and the contract is over after '22. Cabrera is owed at least $124M through '23. Both are essentially worthless as players, you're hiding both on the bench, the odds of getting positive production from either are remote. Cabrera is 37 and played 26 games in the field last year. 2016 was the last time either was meaningfully above replacement. Trading Davis for Cabrera would be paying an extra $50M for the possibility of a win or two.

Chris Davis is a flood-damaged, salvage title Aston Martin that you still owe $155,000 on and insurance won't pay because you got drunk and drove into a lake. He could improve his OPS 200 points next year and still be totally untradeable, even for someone else's bad contract.

Rodrigo was awesome, but the 2002 Orioles had John Stephens. Stephens only got 11 starts because of a horrible and totally unwarranted prejudice against pitchers with 82 mph fastballs. Sure, he had a 6.09 ERA in those 11 starts, but after he got his feet on the ground and established and was wowing the league with that 56 mph eephus curve he would have been in the running for ROY. The Orioles would have still won roughly 67 games.

Or they could just clarify with this statement: "The only reason anybody thinks valuable doesn't mean best player is they want more clicks and eyeballs on their article*. Vote for the best player. The end." * or their messageboard post.

Zach/k Britton has the 2nd-highest career OPS+ of any player in history (min 8 PAs).

The DH thing doesn't mean anything. We're already taking defense into account. Do you say that Verlander shouldn't have been the MVP in '11 because he went 0-for-4? Should John Means be docked because he only played 31 games and had one hit all year? Talk about a one-dimensional player.

That argument quickly dissolves into wackiness. If Mike Trout wasn't on the Angels the Angels would have won 60-some games instead of 72. If Mookie Betts weren't on the Red Sox they would have won 76 or 78 games instead of 84. Value in baseball is in wins. Mike Trout being the best and most valuable player in baseball has nothing to do with whether or not Billy Eppler did his job. If MVP really means the guy who got a team to the postseason, you'll end up with the MVP being the guy on an 88-win team who was least replaceable. So, someone like Josh Hader. Without Josh Hader the Brewers don't play the wildcard game, and where else are you going to find a guy who strikes out almost two an inning, so he's the MVP. Even though he's a 2.5-win player. And if you're giving it to the best player on the best team, then you can just have Yanks and Sox brass plates pre-made to glue on the trophy, since they have the best record most years.

I never understood why an individual award should take into account how well the owner and GM did their jobs.

I think people can exercise good judgment and see that 20 games isn't the same as 80, and that 80 games at an MVP level probably has more impact than 150 innings at somewhat better than average performance. I could be mistaken about the first part. Means deserves consideration, and I can see an argument for him finishing second.

He's on the elite list of 34 players in history who had > 2 HR/9, < 6 K/9 and 81+ innings. Joins fellow Oriole Tommy Hunter and his 2012 season.

He's 645 hits from 3000. If you right and he's only making the roster because of a 26th man, I'm assuming he's not going to play full time. In his career he's averaged 111 hits per 100 games, that will probably go down in his late 30s. At 100 hits a year he'd have to play until he's 42. I'm not sure Nick is the kind of person who wants to be a part-timer into his 40s. I think his only real shot is to play almost every day for the next 4 years. He averaged about 170 hits a year from 2016-18, if he does that he gets there in mid-to-late 2023. You could dig around the archives here and find a post I made around 2009 or 2010 saying Nick had a 20-30% shot at 3000 hits. He's made a good run, but right now I don't think he gets there.

Here's Alvarez' total 2019 numbers including AAA: 143 games 622 PA 108 runs 171 hits 42 doubles 50 homers 149 RBI 2 steals/1 caught 90 walks 144 Ks .325/.424/.690 .690 is Babe Ruth's career slugging percentage, so that's not too shabby.