DrungoHazewood

Yes, he's been poor enough in the outfield and decent enough at first that he'd likely overcome the difference in positional adjustment. Just a few runs, but it's something.

Top third is probably more accurate. He's 39th in rWAR among the 111 players who've played at least 30 games at one of 1B, LF, RF, and DH.

Raffy was also in the majors at 21, playing regularly by middle of his age 22 season. Mancini was about three years behind. Raffy walked quite a bit more - at Mancini's age he walked 72 times. And Raffy aged exceptionally well. He was basically the same player at 26, 30, and 37. I don't think you can expect that from anyone.

Highest batting average with OPS+ < 100 and 300+ PAs: Rk Player BA OPS+ PA Year Age Tm Lg G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB IBB SO HBP SH SF GDP SB CS OBP SLG OPS Pos 1 Pinky Whitney .342 98 660 1930 25 PHI NL 149 606 87 207 41 5 8 117 40 41 1 15 3 .383 .465 .849 *5/H 2 Don Mueller .333 96 502 1953 26 NYG NL 131 480 56 160 12 2 6 60 19 1 13 1 2 7 2 0 .360 .404 .764 *97H 3 Rip Radcliff .330 99 545 1938 32 CHW AL 129 503 64 166 23 6 5 81 36 17 1 5 5 7 .376 .429 .805 *73/H 4 Tommy Tucker .330 92 572 1894 30 BSN NL 123 500 112 165 24 6 3 100 53 21 17 2 18 .412 .420 .832 *3/8 5 Norris Hopper .329 94 335 2007 28 CIN NL 121 307 51 101 14 2 0 14 20 1 33 1 6 1 8 14 6 .371 .388 .758 8H79 6 Walt Wilmot .329 97 655 1894 30 CHC NL 135 604 136 199 45 12 5 130 36 27 1 14 76 .368 .469 .837 *7 7 Juan Pierre .327 89 683 2001 23 COL NL 156 617 108 202 26 11 2 55 41 1 29 10 14 1 6 46 17 .378 .415 .793 *8/H 8 Jeff Cirillo .326 99 684 2000 30 COL NL 157 598 111 195 53 2 11 115 67 4 72 6 1 12 19 3 4 .392 .477 .869 *5/H 9 George Sisler .326 98 686 1929 36 BSN NL 154 629 67 205 40 8 2 79 33 17 4 20 6 .363 .424 .788 *3 10 Bill Lange .325 99 510 1894 23 CHC NL 113 449 86 146 17 9 6 91 56 18 1 4 66 .401 .443 .844 *8/6975 11 Aaron Ledesma .324 92 315 1998 27 TBD AL 95 299 30 97 16 3 0 29 9 1 51 1 4 2 8 9 7 .344 .398 .742 *64H/5D3 12 Eric Young Sr. .324 98 643 1996 29 COL NL 141 568 113 184 23 4 8 74 47 1 31 21 2 5 9 53 19 .393 .421 .814 *4/H 13 Monk Sherlock .324 83 335 1930 25 PHI NL 92 299 51 97 18 2 0 38 27 28 0 9 0 .380 .398 .778 *3H/48 14 Fresco Thompson .324 98 717 1929 27 PHI NL 148 623 115 202 41 3 4 53 75 34 1 16 16 .398 .419 .817 *4 15 Hank Severeid .324 98 531 1921 30 SLB AL 143 472 66 153 23 7 2 78 42 9 0 17 7 2 .379 .415 .795 *2H 16 Alex Sanchez .322 93 352 2004 27 DET AL 79 332 41 107 9 3 2 26 7 0 50 0 12 1 5 19 13 .335 .386 .721 *8/HD 17 Willy Taveras .320 89 408 2007 25 COL NL 97 372 64 119 13 2 2 24 21 0 55 7 7 1 1 33 9 .367 .382 .748 *8/HD 18 Homer Bush .320 97 523 1999 26 TOR AL 128 485 69 155 26 4 5 55 21 0 82 6 8 3 9 32 8 .353 .421 .774 *46/H 19 Bobby Lowe .320 99 336 1896 30 BSN NL 73 306 59 98 11 4 2 48 20 12 4 6 15 .370 .402 .772 *4 20 Lew Fonseca .319 97 505 1925 26 PHI NL 126 467 78 149 30 5 7 60 21 42 3 15 6 2 .352 .450 .802 *43/H 21 Jimmy Johnston .319 97 617 1922 32 BRO NL 138 567 110 181 20 7 4 49 38 17 2 10 18 9 .364 .400 .764 465 22 Al Todd .318 99 314 1934 32 PHI NL 91 302 33 96 22 2 4 41 10 39 2 0 9 3 .344 .444 .788 *2H 23 Jimmie Wilson .318 89 402 1930 29 STL NL 107 362 54 115 25 7 1 58 28 17 1 12 8 .368 .434 .802 *2/H 24 Fred Tenney .318 95 646 1897 25 BSN NL 132 566 125 180 24 3 1 85 49 18 4 27 34 .376 .376 .753 *3/9 25 Felix Fermin .317 85 411 1994 30 SEA AL 101 379 52 120 21 0 1 35 11 0 22 4 12 5 9 4 4 .338 .380 .718 *64 A lot of 1930, 1894, and pre-humidor Coors players.

I hope you are correct, I hope he has a 20+ win career. Sometimes it's more useful than confusing to look at comparable players. I did a bb-ref query with the following qualifiers: through age 27, OPS+ between 117-127, less than 1700 PAs, played 1B, LF, RF, and/or DH, total fielding runs =< 0. 46 names popped up. Josh Bell (the Pittsburgh one). Mancini. Corey Dickerson. Khris Davis. Yoenis Cespedes. Josh Willingham. Erubiel Durazo. Bubba Trammell. Brian Daubach. Sam Horn. Larry Sheets. Al Bumbry (?!) Leon Wagner. Dick Stuart. Bob Nieman. Nick Etten. Irish Meusel. Those are the more recognizable names. I think we and Mancini would be pretty happy with Josh Willingham's career. Or Cespedes'.

If I had to flee to Australia or South Africa or something I could switch the 14 hours of NFL I watch a year to rugby and not miss a beat.

I'm not sure why you've taken a throwaway post (which really I hoped people would focus on who the heck George Puccinelli and Butch Schmidt were) and turned it into a quest to redeem Trey Mancini's good name. I was not making any kind of negative value judgment about Mancini - all the guys on that list, at least the major leaguers, had solid, productive MLB careers. I actually thought I'd get much more flack for comparing Trey to Don Baylor and Bobby Bonilla than Trumbo and Scott. I assumed Trumbo and Scott were pretty non-controversial. I almost didn't even include Trumbo because you could argue the Trey Mancini of the 2010s is Trey Mancini.

That's not bad, except Mancini hits about 50% more homers per PA.

I guess he's in the same extended family, although he had gotten MVP votes in four seasons and been in a couple AS games by Mancini's age. Baines didn't have a bad year (i.e. sub-100 OPS+) from age 22 to 40. And he never played an inning at first in his career.

I don't know if it's a product of the juiced ball, but there are players who disproportionately benefit (or are hurt) by changes to the playing conditions. It might be a coincidence. Sometimes people have career years that happen to fall in favorable conditions. Larry Sheets had by far his best year in the juiced ball year, but I doubt the ball was the entire difference between his .921 OPS in '87 and his .645 the next year. It was probably a combination of a career year, the ball, health, and who knows what. But I don't think it's hurting Mancini that he's hitting a super bounce ball this year.

It's worth nothing/watching that Sheets had his big year in 1987, the year of the obviously juiced ball. Mancini is having his biggest year so far in what's looking like the biggest HR season in MLB history, by far. In 1988 MLB returned the ball to a pile of mush and Sheets was never the same. I wonder what, if anything, MLB will do to the ball in 2020?

Let's see... DHs, left fielders, and first basemen; all played at least a little of each. Power hitters with career slugging marks between 460 and 480. Listed weights between 215 and 225. Career highs in walks of 54, 59, and 44 with Trey having worst mark of the three but makes up for that by having a little higher average. None of them are plus fielders anywhere, although Scott was probably the best outfielder of the three and you could argue about whether Trumbo or Mancini were better first basemen. Baserunning value for all three through age 27 was within a few runs of zero, and none of them ever stole 10 bases in a season. None of them were MLB regulars before age 25. 8th, 9th, and 18th round picks. All had random seasons in mid career with sub-100 OPS+es. There are a lot more similarities here than differences.

And I think that when we start talking promotion that means Elias will start talking about it in 4-6 weeks.

Orioles who were the Trey Mancini of their decade: 2010s: Mark Trumbo 2000s: Luke Scott 1990s: Bobby Bonilla 1980s: Larry Sheets 1970s: Don Baylor 1960s: Curt Blefary 1950s: Bob Nieman 1940s: Howie Moss 1930s: George Puccinelli 1920s: Dick Porter 1910s: Butch Schmidt 1900s: Cy Seymour 1890s: George Van Haltren 1880s: Mike Griffin Some of the comps aren't great, but you don't always have a decade with a first baseman who sometimes played the outfield poorly and also hit quite well, but not always.

Back in his 1980s Abstracts Bill James would have lists of guys he called "Ken Phelps All Stars". A lot of AAA players with relatively big numbers who coaches and GMs "knew" would flame out in the majors. Ken Phelps of course was one. At 25 in AAA he OPS'd .988. At 27 in AAA he OPS'd 1.175. At 28 in AAA he OPS'd 1.029. He first got 100 PAs in a major league season at 28. Many of these guys were like Milligan or Phelps - not terribly athletic, didn't play key defensive postiions, but could hit, walked a ton and got labeled AAAA players. Could you imagine someone having Phelps' 1982 today and getting sent back to AAA? .333/.469/.706 with 46 homers, 108 walks, and 141 RBI in 132 games. The following season he spent 74 games in AAA. And the year after that he spent another 12 games in the minors! Finally in 1984 he got a real shot in the majors at the age of 29 and OPS'd .898. That same year Cal Ripken OPS'd .884, Eddie Murray .918. The Mariners, Royals, and Expos kept one of the better hitters in baseball in AAA for six years.

@Frobby, not trying to disprove your solid research, I'm just curious about old rookies. There have been 121 players who bb-ref classified as rookies at the age of 27 or older, who had 2+ win rookie seasons. If you stretch the definition of a Yaz-like player to someone who only briefly played prior to age 27 you get a lot of hits. Like Lew Ford, who had 83 PAs at 26, a 4-win season as a 27-year-old rookie, and several glorious months as a 2012 Oriole hero at 35. Mike Aviles was a 27-year-old debutant who hit .325, and then had a 10-year-career. Randy Milligan had just over 100 PAs at 25 and 26 before busting out with the 1989 Orioles at 27. Garrett Jones crossed the 100-PA threshold as a 28-year-old, and ended up with 122 homers in an eight-year career. Davey Lopes made his MLB debut at 27 and ended up with 577 stolen bases. Scott Posednik had 31 MLB PAs prior to his age 27 rookie season where he hit .314 with 43 steals. Minor league star Ike Boone (hit .400+ four times in the minors) hit .337 as a 27-year-old rookie in 1924, and .330 the following year. The rest of his MLB career he had less than 200 PAs. George Stone had two PAs prior to his 1905, age-28 rookie campaign where he led the league in hits. The next year he led the league in BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, and total bases. Seven year career. Maybe the most obscure 20th century player who once led the league practically everything. Hyper-annoying Nats announcer FP Santangelo made his debut at 27, rookie at 28, played seven years. Rich Amaral had a 10-year career after debuting at 29 and losing his rookie eligibility at 31. David Newhan was a 30-year-old rookie. And I'd be remiss if I didn't mention Wagon Tongue Bill Keister. Brief trials with the '96 and '98 Orioles. As a 27-year-old rookie in '99 for the last NL Orioles he hit .329 with 16 triples. I think he got his nickname because he moved around about as well as a big honkin' iron-and-wood wagon tongue. Although he stole 30+ bases multiple times, even under the modern, 1897-on definition.

Excellent research. But "lots" is subjective. I bet if I move the dates back a few decades or centuries I could find enough to make my statement technically true.

Define fair. Fairness in opportunities? Or fairness in outcomes? I don't like the draft because it takes away what might be a player's only opportunity to choose where he plays. If there was a draft pre-1964 the odds are very good that the O's don't get either Brooks or Palmer. And even if they did who knows how the fact they never got a choice impacts their willingness to stay in Baltimore their whole careers? I think a guy who wanted to play for the Orioles at the beginning would feel more of a connection to the team than someone who just happened to be drafted by them.

If you have a cap on expenditures for amateur signings I don't understand why the draft exists. If you want the Orioles to have an advantage, just structure the spending like it is today: the bad teams or the small-market teams get more cap space. Maybe a lot more. Where would you sign: With the Yanks or Sox and their stacked rosters and endless line of prospects for less money, or with the Orioles for more cash and an almost immediate opportunity to sieze a MLB job? If you structure the caps and limits the right way the Orioles could get the equivalent of 2, 3, 4 first round picks every year (that they were bad the prior year). Might even be able to go quality over quantity and get two high first rounders in one year.

Everyone can afford a 10/300 deal. Maybe most of them shouldn't but even the Rays have a payroll over $60M. A few years ago the O's were over $150M and $30M a season would be only a Jay Payton over Chris Davis.

So now that Manny has a 123 OPS+, has a UZR/150 at third of +10 and is on pace for about five wins I guess that he's a bargain.

I'm not sure I understand what you're saying. There doesn't have to be an anti-trust exemption for Congress to investigate something.

No, they're also angst over Yaz having a 106 OPS+ in his first 82 MLB PAs with the Giants.

Sure, why not, let's rearrange the deck chairs and give little Yaz his major league shot. We'll cut a .780 AAA OPS guy and call up another because why not.

Lots of players with Yaz' resume managed to carve out a 7-year MLB career. But you could say exactly the same thing about half a dozen other OFers in the upper levels of the O's system. Yaz is Dwight Smith Jr, just older.