Jammer7

Yep, I had that wrong. It was Veen over Kjerstad, and you were not alone.

Agreed, but different people on this board have different valuations. Quicker arrival of a safer pick vs. a longer term and higher risk with significantly better potential reward. Is it simply the best talent, or are we adding in the risk of the player group (Such as HS pitcher)? It should be the most likely production/value based on the scouting input and data algorithm, and none of us here have that kind of info. Elias’ staff really does a great job scouting. They look hard at aptitude and other intangibles as deciding factors, to go along with the talent evaluations. Many of the ”tooled-up” scouting darlings out of HS never amount to much in pro ball. Aptitude and maturity are big factors as to why. With the PD system of Matt Blood and staff, I would like to see what they can do with a higher end HS talent like those we have mentioned. Particularly, I am curious what they want in a HS pitcher. I am curious what that looks like and how they would develop them. They were supposedly in on Bitsko, but a big late velocity bump scares me. And he’s been a poster boy for the risk of that group. I know where you have stood on this in the past. You wanted Jordan Lawler instead of Kjerstad. I was of the same opinion, until I really looked at his 2020 video more. We were both quite high on Drew Jones, but were good with Holliday when all was said and done.

For me, I like the idea of keeping him around over Vavra or perhaps McKenna. Hicks has been injured a lot, playing in only 307 games of a possible 600 or so since 2019. He did play in 130 games last year, however. He’s a switch-hitting veteran bat with playoff experience, and seems to fit in the clubhouse. We’ll see how his health holds up, but if he is used correctly it could be one of those additions we look back on favorably after the season. I don’t want it to get in the way of Cowser coming up, however.

That is certainly one valid way to go. My thought is really BPA, but what is the definition of that really? Is it a guy who has a modest chance to be a top 10 national prospect in 2-4 years, or a guy who has a good shot of at least being a bullpen contributor quickly with a ceiling of a #3-4 starter? They may not need a contributor as much as a trade piece for a later deal. I think they have to consider what they actually do well in development. What pitcher has Elias drafted and become a contributor in Baltimore? I am not saying they cannot develop pitching, not at all. They just have not done it yet. They have had some solid results with Kremer, Bradish, Bautista, Grayson and even DL. None of them Elias draftees, of course. They have not really taken a premium pitching talent yet either. Maybe they find one that Sig’s data models like. Apparently, he liked Nick Bitsko, and he has been as injury prone as as Carter Baumler. I think Elias will look to bring in the most talented position player they can, with some upside and great aptitude for what they teach. It could be a Dylan Beavers type college kid with upside, or maybe a high end high school kid who might be a little over slot. They will want to keep reloading the “talent pipeline.”

He made an absolutely phenomenal catch two nights ago in SF. Ran back to the fence and had to jump and twist backward to catch a ball at the wall. One of the finest catches we’ll see this year. I have to admit that it surprised me, and he looked surprised too. I expected him to be injured afterward, but thankfully he was fine.

I did not disagree with Kjerstad and Cowser, and said so after their selections and some time to process it. I initially wanted other players there, but when their draft was done I saw what they did and liked it. The under slot plan there was good, because the slot provided much more room to work with. Not the same thing this year at #17. It was a smart play each time, despite the fan backlash. Elias was in a much different position then, IMO, not only draft-capital-wise, but organizationally. They are obviously well-stocked with very good depth at the higher minors. They have shown they can draft and develop young high-end position players in Gunnar Henderson and Coby Mayo, but I am not too sure how much credit they deserve for the development of Jackson Holliday yet. He seems to have been extremely polished before he got here. Their development of young pitchers is a big question mark to me. We don’t have much to go on as far as kids they have drafted, except the Carter Baumler kid, and he has struggled to be able to stay on the mound. Do we give the Elias regime credit for the development of Grayson and DL? I think so, but are we as confident they can develop pitching as well as position players? Does any organization develop a high number of high school pitchers to be MLB contributors? I am struggling to think of any. Maybe St. Louis or LA Dodgers, but does anyone really do that well anymore? Internationally is very different, and it’s obviously the Astros have made a living in that realm recently. This draft has a lot of higher end HS guys that should be available at #17. These are the guys that could be top 5 picks when they get drafted again in three years. They can take them now and have them ready for MLB sooner, and they cost less. They are riskier, absolutely. A college bat is safer, and not necessary less-talented. The Brayden Taylor kid looks interesting from what I have read, but I have not seen him at all. I have learned to trust the draft process under Elias and crew. They have proven to be excellent in their evaluations and development. I think they know themselves very well and play to their organizational strengths. It will be interesting to see who they take in this situation. My hope for a high end high school talent is mostly because I am a fan of player development. I like the successful transition of talented young players from high school star to MLB all star for Baltimore. Holliday is looking to be a great story to me. Henderson seems to be as well. There is a lot of failure along the way for players and organizations, but when they find the right ones who are equipped with the fortitude to see it through its a great story. I’m gonna name-drop for a second. Back in 2013 Spring Training with the Nationals, Bryce Harper told my son and I once that he was just lucky to be a major leaguer. He said that there was very talented players all along the way who never make it. He kept saying how lucky he was. To be honest, I thought he was being disingenuous in his comments to my son and I, at the time. I thought he was falsely modest to teach my son about how hard it is. I mean, he was a star at 16 years old. But I have learned that he really felt that way, and he was wise to see it that way. So many things can go wrong. When they actually make it big, it’s been a hard road, and they were lucky along the way as well. So many can’t miss guys actually miss.

They may have to go over some for a few of these guys. It would be tough to go under in the middle picks, but I suppose they could. And I would hate it.

Absolutely different. What do I want? I would love to see them be aggressive with a high schooler, like Eldridge, Aidan Miller, Charles Soto, Thomas White or Colin Houck. Maybe Noble Meyer slips to us. I doubt they go with a HS arm here, though I think they could take a gamble now that they are stocked and can afford to have this prospect take time. They could go a college bat like Shaw from Maryland, or maybe a RHP Waldrup from Florida, and that would be safe.

I saw that Elias was spotted scouting Nimmala. I hope he has been in on Eldridge, though. He can go see these guys some and still take a step back from where his involvement had been. Maybe it was a baby step…? lol

I saw Jud in high school and college a lot. I saw Austin a few times in college, both at Seminole and Jacksonville. Jud is a much better CF prospect, by far. Jud is a smoother athlete, makes things look easier. He tracks the ball better, better routes, gets very good jumps. Hays’ arm is superior, and I think Hays was more of a grinder than Jud.

It really depends on what is out there in trade offers, and do they get what they believe is fair compensation. If I can only have one, it’s Ortiz. I likely play him at 2B with Holliday at SS in the long term. Westburg, IMO, is likely a fairly athletic 3B or COF long term. He can play SS and 2B, but we have better defenders there, and a lot of them. Personally, I would keep both and seriously consider Westburg in COF. Hays and Santander are both potentially replaceable with Westburg and Cowser. Westburg has some swing and miss concerns, but I think he can produce at least at Hays’ level, for a lot less money. I am not sure he is capable of being a premium defender in a COF, but I’m not sure Hays is anymore either.

Probably so, but they can ease him in there with some DH time as well. Give him some time to slow things down.

They could trade a veteran like Urias to take advantage of his now value. I do agree that he has solid value and is, to me, a solid MLB veteran bat to have in a part-time role. I do not think he is more productive everyday at 3B than Gunnar is going to be there. Not this year nor in the long term. I do not think he is a GG level 2B, but he's average. The bat is solid off the bench, and he is the kind of guy who will get hits and great at bats in big moments in big games. Urias and Frazier are similar in that they should be bench pieces. Both can give a quality at bat and get hits against top pitching. Their swing mechanics and approaches are playable in that role, and they are "pros." Do we need both in a bench role? Could we move Westburg into Urias' role and add his COF versatility? I think so, honestly. I would be tempted to not DH Rutschman much on his off days from catching. It would allow Cowser and Westburg to get those at bats. They need as many as possible. I would send Vavra down when Urias comes back, and keep Ortiz at 2B on most days. Cowser could soon make O'Hearn expendable, and I like O'Hearn. With Santander able to play 1B, O'Hearn's profile is not really a need. Below is what I would do, and I would do it sooner than later. 1B - Mountcastle 2B - Ortiz (R) SS - Mateo 3B - Henderson* (R) INF - Frazier* INF - Westburg (R) C - Rutschman# C - McCann LF - Hays CF - Mullins* RF - Santander# OF - Cowser* (R) OF - McKenna

Maybe he re-signs with the team, who knows. If not, they took a shot and missed. Some work out, some don’t. So what. Perhaps they did not like what they saw of him and have no interest in him. This may have played out this way for several reasons.

I understand, and that is fair to question based on a lack of track record. He has been a bit erratic, and I think he is pressing. I was just saying that it’s a bit early to say this 6 weeks, especially the last two, are indicative of what he will be the rest of the year.

It’s still very early to jump to ANY conclusions. This is uncharted territory for him, and I think he is hearing footsteps. He has never been the incumbent at SS until. He sees all the talent lining up behind him. He may just be going through something physical we don’t know about as well. To me, he’s pressing. Might just need a reset for a day or two.

Sure, I agree with that. He has the strength to be an .800 guy. I want to see if he can maintain the discipline and show an aptitude for the daily mental side of hitting. He gives away too many at bats right now.

He tells part of the story, I do not mean to outright dismiss him. Some of the conclusions he has come to in the past were a bit of a leap for me. I’ll read it later.

I cannot read this on my phone, but isn’t Sarris the “Stuff+” guy? I’m not sure I put much stock into his evaluations.

Ha! Not worried about his defense. He is pressing right now, trying to do too much. He just needs to take what the game gives him. That is part of the learning process. I hope fans are reminded by watching Gunnar struggle that this game is hard. The jump to MLB is huge. Adley made it look a lot easier than it is. I understand the fans calling for Westburg and Ortiz, but I think it should be a last resort this year. They are very talented players, absolutely. But Mateo is one of the most gifted and exciting players in MLB today. Those don’t come along very often. We will know a lot more about Mateo’s aptitude after this year.

I have not liked the at bats lately, since right about the time the poll came out. A little pull happy and the swing decisions were not as good as they had been. In fairness to him, he has been facing the Braves and Rays best. Slumps happen, but the defense has still been very good. The league has adjusted to him now. His turn to adjust. I want to see where he is at the end of June.

It sure is nice to see the progress of Cano. From being a guy that many here wanted to DFA a few months ago, to now being speculated as an All Star candidate. The Lopez trade looks pretty good for us.

The Royals offense is no joke. They’ve been bad to begin the year, but their young hitters can mash. Witt, Melendez and Pasquantino can really hit. It’s also like maybe they knew what was coming, at times. Perhaps our old friend Lyle has been giving the young hitters some tendencies of our sequencing and such.

I believe he has an option.

It seems a little strange, at this moment anyway. I’m trying not to overthink this. My first thought is that O’Hearn should go down, not that he has been bad at all. His profile doesn’t fit that well if Adley and McCann are going to DH often between catching games. I would think Stowers stays and provides a LH bat with solid defense in the OF corners. The question for me then is how many at bats will Stowers get while they are trying to get Santander on track? I watched Hyde talk about Santander’s 16 pitch at bat last night, and how he lamented that Santander is “really grinding right now.” They could keep O’Hearn as a bench role LH bat, and Frazier can play OF corners moreso than O’Hearn. IDK. I doubt Torrens is staying long term. Probably a guy they evaluate over a week or two and see what they have in him. See what his aptitude is and what they can fix.