Jammer7

I’d rather use his athleticism in the OF then, if that’s the case. Absolutely, been thinking that this offseason myself. The bat seems just about ready, though, either way.

I’m not of the opinion that we should play Westburg at 1B. I understand why many have this as a possibility, but why take a guy who is a legitimate 2B/3B and play him at 1B? To me, that is not utilizing his value properly. For me, by the end of 2023, I would trade Mateo and Urias, slide Gunnar to SS, Westburg to 3B and either Ortiz or Norby at 2B. Mountcastle is the 1B, for now, but I don’t think he is there long term. It seems like they are looking for a successor at 1B.

I was against Odor being in this team in the Spring, unless it was a marginal bench role. I defended his defense in mid season, but said it was time for him to go. I said he had contributed to Mateo’s growth and the team. I was never, in any way, in favor of Aguilar. And yes, I often admit when I am wrong. I did the other day with Vallimont. Feel free to call me out on a stance that turns out to be wrong. I’m not the guy to boast much when I was right about several things. You and I agree on many things. We are not all that polar when we disagree. The degrees of difference are often minor. My main points, so far, this off season is we may not be done yet, too soon. It is quite disappointing based on “Lift Off.” Yes, I join you in calling him out. I just don’t rant as loudly as the rest of you. And it makes little sense to be hypercritical of the moves made until we’re done. And then, let’s see how it goes with some of these that are bounce back types he got a bit cheaper than he may have gotten. Many things have to go right for a lot of teams, that is why depth is needed. He made mostly minor moves, no doubt. We don’t know the entire situation. It does not stop us from speculating, because that is what we do as intelligent and passionate fans. I don’t think he was ready, in his grand plans, for this team to contend in 2022. His moves at the deadline showed it. I was calling to trade some minor league depth last offseason. I have had times where I have been critical of Elias. I get frustrated. I just don’t call him an idiot, or rant to an extreme. Overall, I absolutely think the organ is on the right track. I suspect the ownership issues are very limiting on the moves he wants to make. To say he didn’t make moves to make this team much better is true. Is it because he doesn’t know how to do so? I seriously doubt that is true. Is it because he is hamstrung? I do believe that one. Do I believe he may value his prospect capital more than some wish he would? Yes. I think he drives a tough trade negotiation, in general.

I thought so too. The MLB tv crew said Rutschman was too, so I thought I was wrong.

Coming into the offseason, ideally, I wanted Verlander on a 2-3 year deal for $40 million a year. I wanted his knowledge and experience to help our young talented guys like Grayson Bradish, Kremer and Hall to see how he prepares and navigates a game. Of course, he and his lovely bride would actually have to want to come to Baltimore. I thought that was the best thing that could happen to our pitchers. I would have been ok with Bassit, although the draft pick I figured would be a bit of an issue just yet until the international pipeline gets production. I thought maybe Taillon would be good. I was interested in Synergaard and Quintana as well. I wanted no part of Eovaldi. The Gibson signing was a bit surprising, but I can see some of the likely reasoning behind it. He should be better in Baltimore than he was in Philadelphia. I think many here will be surprised how much better he is than Lyles. That assumes he stays healthy. I would not have signed Frazier, but again, I can see the logic if he makes it back to some reasonable facsimile of what he was. He’s not any kind of long term answer, and would not be surprised to see him moved before the deadline to make room for the young infielders. I really like the McCann move, but I had not considered that until I read about the Mets signing a catcher and McCann becoming available. This could be vastly underrated by many. It was unrealistic, but I wanted Rizzo. I would have been fine with Verlander and Rizzo, and a cheap back up Catcher. Those two would have impacted this team immensely. Neither likely had any intention of entertaining Elias with his pitch, but that is what I wanted. I wanted no part of Abreu. I watched about ten games of the White Sox in the second half, his defense has fallen dramatically. It’s really bad. And I see no logic in a physically declining RH DH bat. I guess I am in the minority there. I figured there would be a trade, and still might be, for a 2-3 starter. What seems to be emerging here is that they value their players, such as Santander, Urias and Mateo, higher than what is being offered. They do not seem to want Urias to be the everyday 2B. I get the feel that they really prefer their homegrown players to Urias and Mateo, and we should see the new kids by July or August. I think this is going to be interesting to see how 2023 unfolds. There should be a lot of movement of players, it just isn’t happening as fast as some here want it to. The progression is very methodical, but we want it now.

Good plan, only problem is extending two Boras clients of that magnitude isn’t going to be team friendly. Not at all. He doesn’t advise his clients that way. I would have loved to see both though.

Occasionally, sure. I just don’t call everyone else’s ideas stupid.

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I agree with @Sports Guy that position players generally get more of a return in the offseason. I do think Santander should be dealt before 2024. Mullins, maybe, if a CF emerges. Jud Fabian, maybe, but that isn’t happening this year. I want to see more of Mullins without an infielder playing in RF before I make a firm decision. I will say that if Hays does not make considerable improvement on his swing and decisions, I would move him. Ultimately, I do not think any of those three are on our next World Series contender. I don’t think Mountcastle will be either.

I agree with @Sports Guy that position players generally get more of a return in the offseason. I do think Santander should be dealt before 2024. Mullins, maybe, if a CF emerges. Jud Fabian, maybe, but that isn’t happening this year. I want to see more of Mullins without an infielder playing in RF before I make a firm decision. I will say that if Hays does not make considerable improvement on his swing and decisions, I would move him. Ultimately, I do not think any of those three are on our next World Series contender. I don’t think Mountcastle will be either.

Come on, you know that isn’t what I am saying. All I said is you disagree with Elias, fine. Have at it. But if he is right, you and many others will have a whole lot of crow to eat. lol I agree with you on some things. He did get good fortune on a few things, and that team overachieved. The fence made a huge difference, good and bad. The Means injury wasn’t unexpected, and that is really the only big injury. There will likely be some regression or injuries with a few pitchers. I think he is staying grounded, realistic in his expectations. He does not believe they are ready yet. I think he added a little value over 2022 with these moves, but not much. One year deals, so what. I think the McCann move was very underrated. The Gibson signing is likely to turn out to be better than most think. The Frazier signing, I am optimistic he can be a 2 WAR player again, but he has mechanical and timing issues he needs to fix. He’s a better hitter and defender than Odor. It’s a bit of an overpay to me, but I guess we’ll see. At the end of the day, we do not know what he knows. We don’t know what the ownership situation really is. We don’t know how much they have invested in the infrastructure and coaching upgrades. A lot went into building the analytics group they have too. Their personnel costs off the field has certainly increased a lot. We don’t have access to all of the data they have, nor the opinions of their analysts and coaches that give advice on who they should sign, and what they can fix. Or what kind of fit a particular player might be in the clubhouse. So, if it is wrong to take a wait and see attitude and have a little faith in a group that took a bunch of waiver wire pick ups to a few games within a wildcard birth, I don’t want to be right.

No, that hasn’t happened. Until it does, the jury is out. The team overachieved last year, by a lot. Several things had to happen for that level of success. I think he was pleasantly surprised. I do not think he has a winner. Until he does, not sure he puts a big package of prospects out there. We’re hopefully going to see by 2024. Its fair to criticize and be upset. I don’t love the moves either. They are what they are.

You and Mike Elias have vastly differing opinions apparently. I guess we’ll see. I remember all of the bashing about how terrible the moves were last off season and they won 83 games. Elias has earned my respect that he knows when to promote a prospect. It definitely is different than the old school “sink or swim” approach.

Except, those prospects will be playing everyday in AAA, improving whatever it is they need to do. That isn’t blocking prospects. That is buying time until they are ready. The competition makes them better. I get that you want them to be in Baltimore making their mistakes and learning with the big club, but that is not their way, currently. It just isn’t.

I think they’re done, more or less, for now. Trades at mid-season make sense. Maybe they are ready to move Mateo and/or Urias then, and Westburg, Ortiz and/or Norby emerges as ready. Frazier and O’Hearn are stop gaps to buy time for Stowers, Cowser and the young infielders. Adding ML depth to the rotation now? IDK. Gibson, Kremer, Bradish, T. Wells, G. Rodriguez, DL Hall, Voth, Watkins and Zimmermann should be just fine for now. You add Means in late July or August, hopefully. Elias will not want to block his young starters, unless it’s a true TOR, I think. The additions are not sexy, no. They appear to be buying time for their prospects, while improving incrementally in 2023.

I don’t know what to think about this one, honestly. I did not know he existed before this trade. I will say that most guys in today’s game cannot sit for days at a time, and then be effective pinch hitters.

Well, according to Roch, he did lead MLB in 2022 with 11 pinch hits. So, we acquired Jim Dwyer for $1.4 million. Ok.

Yep. Forget what I said.

I am one that usually defends him, honestly. I just think he is easily replaceable with the addition of Givens. His deception is what makes him good. I’m not sure he’s very durable, as he appeared to wear down in the second half. It was a very ugly second half for him, if we’re being honest. I find that Vallimont may bring more value overall than a reliever that is quite easily replaced.

You might be right. I think they might release Logan Gillespie, maybe Andrew Politti and Joey Krehbiel, before Vallimont. There is plenty of options inside the organization for pen depth. Givens impacts both guys I listed. If they need shuttle arms, Baumann, Watkins, Denoyer, Watson, Uvila, Hoffman, Vespi, Cano, Lucas, Loeprich, McSweeney, Bazardo and Gomez. Vallimont was bad in Norfolk last year, no argument. But I think they will stay patient because of what they think he can be.

The fact that he is still here means to me they like him and believe he may just need more time. I found this pre 2022 write up by Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs interesting. They ranked Vallimont as the #27 in the Twins organization then. Vallimont started the season a couple of weeks late with a game at Low-A Fort Myers, a rehab start that came after missing time with back spasms. In that start, he posted a CSW rate of 41%, missing bats with all four of his offerings and issuing six strikeouts in his three innings of work without allowing a free pass. But that would be the only outing of his season in which he didn’t allow a walk. After that game, he was skipped up to Double-A, where his 21 starts were far from flawless; his ERA and BB/9 were both 6.03. On the bright side, he struck out almost a third of the Double-A batters he faced, and his fastball velocity was in the 91-96 mph range, way up from the 89-92 he showed in 2019. He’s further shortened his arm action, and those alterations may have hurt his feel for release and could be to blame for some of the location variability. The Twins protected Vallimont from the Rule 5. Right now, he is trending toward a relief role, with a backend starter ceiling. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/minnesota-twins-top-39-prospects-2022/ (Also, an interesting write up on Povich in that article as well.) I was not aware that Vallimont shortened his arm angle, so it does seem to give some background for the patience being shown. I am curious if he stuck with it, or went back to the longer movement. He has two options left, according to Roster Resource. He was also a Top 100 player according to ZIPS in their pre 2021 list, #83. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/zips-2021-top-100-prospects/ A small school guy with a ton of life on his fastball, the COVID layoff did not help his development. A consistent release point is supposed to be the issue. I know the AAA numbers were bad, but he has time. I don’t think he is very close to being DFA. If he had a poor work ethic, they would have DFA’d him already. He needs innings and reps, so he should keep starting for the immediate future in AAA. I wonder how the organization compares him to Baumann, internally.

I understand your thoughts. We disagree about any positive value in that role. So be it. So, who is your bench? McCann, Urias, Stowers and McKenna are pretty solid right now, I think. One last spot, maybe Vavra. Perhaps there is a trade on the horizon. But as it stands, that is how I see it. Rutschman Mountcastle Frazier Mateo Henderson Hays Mullins Santander Stowers Urias McCann McKenna ? (Vavra) If McCann is going to get into 80 games or so, then he’ll have to DH and play a little 1B. I can see a LH hitting DH/1B type instead of Vavra. It all depends on what is going to happen in the next few months, and on what the Orioles actually think of Stowers. If Stowers is a legitimate prospect, he needs to be in the lineup for 400-500 at bats. If he gets 150 sporadic at bats this year, he’ll have a bad year. Bringing in a Hosmer type, would certainly take at bats away from someone. Maybe they spread the at bats around, causing Hays and Mountcastle to get less. Stowers would be affected as well.

Why add him in the first place, then? No one is going to be productive in limited at bats. He has had chances to improve, and shown no willingness to do so. That’s the thing. This isn’t a new criticism of him. I guess we’ll just disagree, my friend. I’d rather have them pick up Lewin Diaz again. Hosmer does make good contact for a big guy, and his exit velos are decent to good. However, he’s an extreme ground ball hitter. He always has been, and he has refused to do so for years. The Orioles do value contact more than in years past, according to Eve Rosenbaum. The Orioles also value defense and flexibility. His defense is limited to 1B, and that is bad these days. To be a DH and occasional 1B, he would need to produce. I just don’t see the net positive impact he would have.

Odor would have sat if Vavra could play 2B at an average level. Vavra certainly has a better bat. They tried to do so. They even played Henderson there with no preparation, a terrible idea. And they came back to Odor, who showed he was willing to cut his swing down and hit singles to LCF sometimes. I keep seeing this criticism of Hyde, and maybe he deserves it. But I just ask to show me who beat out Odor at 2B in 2022? I thought maybe Urias would be there with Henderson at 3B, but Urias did not hit well either at the end of the season.

Chris Davis was a part time player at the end too. They were both once productive. They both signed big deals and became very different players. Chris Davis had at least one big run-in with Brandon Hyde. As a veteran player, with a ring, he will have some impact here if he signs. He is probably not a complete tool. I pointed out some things, but there is a case to say he could come here and contribute in a role you mentioned. That would require some changes in how coachable he has been. He would have to work hard on conditioning and his defense. Otherwise, I do not see him having any positive value, just like Chris Davis. The Padres could not wait to get rid of him. They became a better team when he left. The Red Sox released him when no other team wanted anything to do with him. I don’t see anything to indicate he’s ready to change.