Jammer7

Like I said, I don’t have a feeling about it either way. Call me…an optimist? Or just acknowledging two rational intelligent men can disagree? We can each call it like we see it, without hating or being his caddy. If Frazier sucks, then I’ll call it what it is. Until then, I’ll root the guy on and hope he works hard to get back to where he was with the Pirates. He’s an Oriole now.

That is utterly ridiculous. I expected it, though.

Tony, I’m not offended. I may not find the fan boy references amusing or particularly dignified by a man your age to a man my age, but I don’t care. I’ve been called far worse to my face for 29 years at work, trust me. What I wrote there was just humor. I guess I should have put that in green font. You intel guys have no sense of humor…lol! I do respect your opinions, and I mean no slight at all. I know many scouts, associates and full timers. I know some executives and former players. I don’t agree with all of them either. So what. The conversations are usually a lot more respectful, and not so polarized. This board feeds off you. Your polar opinion becomes that of many here. Most here are stat line scouts and have no idea about the processes that player has or is capable of having. To say I find no faults in Elias’ decisions is false. It does not happen near as often as you. Some of the moves I definitely do not understand at the time they are made. I am not privy to the factors surrounding the choices made. We are all just making guesses. Some of them are educated more than others. I happen to agree with many things they do. It doesn’t mean that I or anyone else is a rubber stamp. There is a lot of gray area in there. I don’t see many absolutes. I am not as eloquent as some here. I do not put much time into statistical research, and my understanding of advanced metrics is fairly rudimentary compared to many here. I am busy working and coaching. Not much time these days for message boards. I got papers and homework to grade as a rookie teacher. But I do know a few things about the game and the processes of players. I know that players can improve greatly, if only to a point. It can depend on the fit with an organization. I see a chance that Frazier might work out. I am not saying this was some kind of great signing. I am not going to crap all over any signing by this group before the guy has a chance to even play a game. That I won’t do. They have earned the benefit of the doubt for me. Except for the Aguilar signing and the Phillips trade. Those puzzle me more than just about anything. Whoever brought those ideas to the table should be reassigned to washing batting practice balls and cleaning/polishing cleats. We need help for the clubbies too. See, I sometimes criticize Elias…lol. I’m just a guy who has been coming to your board for a long time. We agree on a lot of things. Not on this one. Moving on. Cheers!

That’s not what I meant. We have beaten this to death, no? Rutschman is the bigger factor, yes. Those veterans you mentioned, not just Roughned Odor, did have a bigger impact than most fans think. You’re a baseball guy, you know there is something to that. Or maybe you don’t. Brandon Hyde and many others do. Most baseball guys know there is value to a veteran providing leadership in areas like preparation and other subtle areas like how to compete every day. To hold players accountable and have the street cred for others to respect them and listen. There is a lot that goes into the development of a winning culture. As I said, I am not sure what to make of the Frazier signing. It may work out, it may not. You guys pointed out all of the negative aspects of this. I pointed out how it might just surprise us. Yet, you seem really intent on picking an argument that has already been beaten to death with various insults flying because someone disagrees with you? I don’t care if you call me a fluffer, fan boy or even Elias’ executive ball washer. If it makes you feel better, I’m here for you. Let me ask you this, Oh Great Swami. What kind of batting line and production would it take for you to call the Frazier signing a successful signing? Would his 2019 line of .278/.336/.417/.753 be good enough for your stamp of approval? I mean, what more could you hope for on a 1 year deal for $8 million? I did a little film work on him myself. I don’t like the lower half at all. He needs to work there. He talked about that and his approach. He talked specifically about syncing up the lower and upper halves. I am curious what mechanical things they might incorporate to get his rhythm back. He talked about needing to look for more pitches he can hit harder, instead of entire plate coverage. I know you think Elias made a terrible move here. You basically call him an idiot by expressing your incredulity at how bad this is. Mike Elias is not an idiot. They know things you do not. That is why they have that job. You’re a knowledgeable fan with a great long-term website. You’ve done some legit associate scouting and you have a different philosophy. They have different ways of improving this team. I happen to think they have done a good job, so far. There is a lot left to prove, of course. I think their moves are telling that they do not believe some of their infield prospects are quite ready yet to contribute to improving on last year’s team. They sign Adam Frazier, who in a best case, is similar to Odor in some ways, with an average offensive output. He was what they want Vavra to be just a short time ago. That would be a great improvement. That’s about what $8 million buys it seems. And it’s a one year deal, so you do not block prospects long-term. I do get all of the venom over this. I have stayed out of this mostly. It is a questionable move at first blush. If you believe the coaches can help him regain his better days, then perhaps it isn’t what you wanted with the lift off comments, but maybe it isn’t such a terrible move after all. A full year of Adley and Gunnar makes us considerably better. Will the pitching improve, or will some regression happen to Kremer, Wells, Bradish, Voth, Akin, Perez and Bautista? Does Mateo improve with his production? Does Santander improve his mobility, and keep improving his swing decisions? Is Hays the guy in the first or second halves? Is Mountcastle their 1B and MOO hitter long-term? Is Ced more the guy in 2022 than in 2021? Is Stowers going to have an opportunity to get regular at bats? Vavra? These are all bigger questions to me than “why Adam Frazier.” From what I see, Frazier is an average 2B. He was always better than that. I wonder if he was playing through an injury last year. There are several reasons that San Diego and Seattle have traded for him. Two playoff teams wanted him recently. I guess they are crazy too. There is still a lot of time before Spring Training. We’ll see what else happens. Enjoy the holidays, big guy.

A great piece. A lot of interesting data. It makes me wonder, what were the EV’s of Wade Boggs, Tony Gwynn, Rod Carew, Pete Rose or Ichiro? They could hit the ball harder and hit home runs if they wanted to. They found success with weaker frequent contact. And these are just a few examples. I get that the game has changed. I wonder if the shift rules will help these kinds of guys some. To the point of the article, it makes me think the Orioles must strongly believe Frazier can increase his EV. I listened to him speak about syncing his upper and lower half and getting more from the ground up. That makes sense to me. Does he go away from his recent mechanics, which has no step, not even a toe tap? He gets nothing out of his lower half right now. Maybe he gets more upright, a bit more of a step. Something to reconnect and regain his rhythm in the box. He talked about looking for pitches he can hit well, instead of trying to cover the whole plate. That makes sense to me. I’m not saying it will happen, but it could. His contact rate and low swing and miss rate make me more optimistic than most here. This off season is a bit disappointing, so far, based on Elias’ regrettable “Lift Off” comments and what I interpreted that to mean. Perhaps there is a trade coming before Spring Training. Maybe not until the deadline. He obviously doesn’t have real lift-off money to spend.

Let’s take a look at three “no doubt” hitters of recent times. Spencer Torkelson hit .203/.285/.319/.604 last year in 360 at bats, and he was a sure thing. A top 3 prospect in baseball, #1 pick in the draft in 2020. There are doubts about his glove, but never any doubts he will hit. And he still should. He is a major reason the Tigers underachieved in 2022. Jarred Kelenic has hit .168/.251/.338/.589 in 500 at bats with Seattle. Another top 5 prospect in baseball. Everyone said he’d hit, and he probably still can. Seattle made the playoffs despite not getting much from him. Keston Hiura, a guy with a 60 hit tool, had a great showing in 2019 in 314 at bats, .303/.368.570/.938. Then followed that up with a .707 OPS in 2020 and a .557 in 2021. He isn’t the same prospect status as the other two cited, but he was the #9 pick in 2017. He is not a silver slugger type at this point, but he did have a .765 OPS (wRC+ of 115) in 2022. A 41% K rate is awful, but has great EV numbers. The point is, prospects, even the most talented sure things, they start slow. They slump. They even fail. It’s a tried and true baseball sure thing. When they hit like Adley and Gunnar, be grateful, because they all will not be like that. For as much grief as Elias has gotten for not promoting prospects when some think he should, his philosophy of making sure they are as ready as they can be seems to be working, so far. Perhaps he is hesitant to promote Westburg, or play Stowers last year much more because he just felt they are not or were not ready to succeed just yet.

All I will say further is, let’s let it play out. I do not think this is some kind of great sign. It has potential to go either way. And the veteranosity gained 31 games in the win column and helped Mateo become an excellent defensive SS. But whatever, you see it differently. Carry on. I am not going to get into this frenzy with you knuckleheads. Merry Christmas!

Yes, I’m following the Tigers situation closely because of Riley mostly. I still believe Tork will hit too. I just do not think their coaching and development people are that great. Riley is who is because of the work he puts in elsewhere. I don’t think many people realize how good our development staff really is.

The Braves like Grissom a lot. BTW, he went to Hagerty HS with Riley Greene, same school as Mountcastle and Eflin. Grissom is still improving. The Braves prospects are depleted, but the three HS RHP’s they took in 2022 early, Owens, Ritchie and Phillips are good but a long way away. Risky guys to take, but talented.

No argument about his EV. He talked about making some changes, and that Elias had the same changes in mind. I do not know what he will be offensively, but he can be a guy who gets on base and hits line drives all over the field. Frazier will bring above average defense to a place where you can value defense higher. But this isn’t his thread. Hosmer is a guy that plays poor defense now, and does not hit near enough for a MLB average 1B.

You might be right. There is a case for him, which isn’t really that strong, and against him. Either might be right. Elias has the data and the video at his fingertips. He trusts his people to make these evaluations. No such thing as a bad one year contract, at least that is what GM’s are famous for saying. Man, I don’t know what’s going to happen. But there is case both ways. If someone was expecting Xander Bogaerts to come here for $8 million, that’s delusional. But, if Adam Frazier can get back to doing what he did in 2019-2021, it might just pay off. I cannot see him playing 156 games again, like he did for the Mariners in their playoff run. Maybe 140 ish…

Yes, already have. But it comes down to two different ways to go. Playing the prospects in the infield is less reliable on the defensive end. They want the pitchers to get out of innings when they should. Frazier is a contact guy, not a big guy like Hosmer.

Prospects fail much more than they succeed. When you have them, you know them best if your coaching staff and scouts are as good as you think they are. When you play them to see if they can make those adjustments, and they fail, are they as valuable in trades as they were? I don’t believe so. So, why add Frazier on a one year deal? Because prospects fail and injuries happen. They have made it clear they want to compete for playoff spots. They don’t have the resources to make huge elite multi-year purchases in the FA market. Frazier is a proven Major League player, a veteran who will have an impact on how the young guys are used, yes. But he will also provide more of the leadership to the young infielders. He will help them develop. He will make frequent contact and get on base in front of Adley, Gunnar, Mountcastle and Santander. He is a little more than insurance against the failure of Stowers, Vavra, Westburg, Ortiz and so on. According to MASN article announcing his signing, “According to Statcast, he ranked in the top five percent of MLB in strikeout rate (12.1%) and whiff rate (14.4%).” They want to win more games and keep improving. Frazier’s defense is considered above average as well. This is a big value to the development of young pitchers. If Vavra could play 2B at that level, I doubt Frazier would have been signed. They need a guy who reliably makes plays there. One who turns outs into outs. Elias could have gone with the rookies only. He would have been criticized by the same posters who are criticizing this move for not picking up a veteran if the rookies struggle. You cannot please everyone. Some, you can never please. It would have been a defensible position for the reasons you stated. Elias and Hyde want a more proven commodity for now, and I think it has a lot to do with the defense helping the young pitchers get out of innings. You aren’t wrong, and neither are they. Two different ways of going about it. We’ll see who was right.

Hosmer is not well-liked around the league as a teammate. He is a ground ball hitter, not exactly what the front office would want. In 2022, LD% was 18, GB% was 57 and FB% was 25, according to FanGraphs. The EV is down several MPH. The once strong defense is pretty bad. He looks really apathetic out there and he has been very resistant to any swing change designed to lift the ball more. He was also .6 fWar last year. If Elias signs him, it would be the single most questionable move that he has made to date for me. I cannot defend it. https://www.fangraphs.com/players/eric-hosmer/3516/stats?position=1B

If the team wants Gunnar to play 3B, and Ortiz and/or Mateo are SS’s, maybe Westburg does see time at 1B and COF. I prefer the OF option more than 1B. Maybe he spells Gunnar at 3B on occasion, and perhaps a guy that can play some 2B and emergency SS. Is he a UT at this point? That bat can play. He is a very good athlete, not some kind of base clogger. He is, at the very least, a dramatic improvement to what Nevin has shown so far.

I’ve been wondering the same thing. It is striking, indeed. Last year’s success seemed to make them shift gears in this way. We have seen the previous three years where they took waiver claims with much less of a minor league reputation and played them with developing their talent in mind to see what they could get them to become. What kind of value they could mine out of the raw material. The only conclusion I can come to with Stowers and Vavra is that they do not believe in them. At least Brandon Hyde does not. The question with Vavra is not the bat, but where does he play. Hyde DH’d and pinch hit him. With all of the injuries Vavra has had, was it difficult to get him the reps, or has his physicality decreased because of the back injuries and such? One thing was obvious to me, Vavra is not even an average 2B if that showing is who he is. When it comes to Stowers, is it just the defensive issues he showed, which most assume will be remedied with a little more MLB time? Or do they not believe the bat will play effectively?

No way. Like others, the 2014 playoff series left an indelible impression on me in a bad way. I never liked his swing anyway. He is absolutely terrible now in every facet of the game.

This has been a truly terrible thread. I can’t believe I actually read every post. No one can say Frazier is a great pick up. I think you can make a case that he is a solid major league player. $8 million seems like a lot, but this market is what it is. Why is he here? Because Westburg, Ortiz and Vavra are not proven commodities. Prospects fail all the time. And if these guys fail, many naysayers here would be the same ones that would say that they should have signed Frazier, who is an upgrade to Odor. His versatility is huge to me. Sort of a Brock Holt lite. Injuries and prospect failure is why this is a solid pick up to me. The depth he provides is important. The same people complaining want to compete for a playoff relying on unproven rookies? Ok, gotcha. It certainly isn’t worth 34 pages of bickering, but you carry on. As you were.

Yeah, that has to be tough to rate these guys. Way too many variables, even when they come to the states. The pitchers do take longer, so perhaps there is still hope for Ortiz. A LHP at 6-03 with his raw tools should get every opportunity to succeed.

Yes, you are right. The “prospect Luis Ortiz,” the LHP. Anything on that one?

Sure. Orioles fans aren’t used to big dollar international signees. And Elias’ track record now makes us surprised when they don’t work out. I guess we’re getting spoiled. lol In all seriousness, I get it that even the bigger hyped signees don’t usually work out. There is still time, hopefully. We know so little about the international guys until they come to the states.

It is good to see Luis DeLeon re-emerge in the top 50 discussion. Even if it’s all projection, it is encouraging to know that Tony’s contacts believe in him in the same breath as Rangel. Equally disappointing to not see Maikol Hernandez in the top 50. I have read many of your previous comments on him, so not a shock. It’s disappointing when the team spends over a million on a kid who is not excelling yet. There is still time and all, and hopefully he is working hard on his game.

Great stuff, Tony! Really well done. Would you pin this one in the minors forum?

The first part is certainly an understandable take. The second part has me curious, and maybe you have answered this elsewhere. But how do you know that? Did this come from a “source?” Or is it just your speculation? I would never want to “out” a source, and I know you would not do that. But that’s quite a statement. I mean, it could be something Elias and Hyde agreed on. Maybe Hyde pushed for a veteran guy they thought might drive in some runs with a few adjustments. The offense was anemic and Mountcastle and Hays effectively stopped hitting since July. I wanted Stowers to play too, but perhaps they felt they needed match ups for him, or had him working certain things. To throw a rookie into a playoff run isn’t always advantageous.

Thanks for the kind words. I enjoy your posts as well. I agree, it’s an intricate undertaking. You’d have to have the framework of some deals in place to make it all work. You’d sign Turner, and then go forward with other things. The worst scenario would be Turner getting hurt, but with his track record, he’s a smart bet. Having him in pocket opens the door to the others, in my opinion. The infield depth becomes expendable at that point. Maybe some of your minor league players open in AAA, not ideal, but not a bad thing. For a while anyway. You make the deals that make sense, and they do fall apart far more than we know. I would love to get Burnes, but they apparently came out and said they’re holding onto him, for now. Maybe at the deadline. Makes little sense as teams generally get more in the Winter deals, but that’s the Brewers. Elias and crew are very capable front office people. They can prove it over the next few years. All GM’s think they’re the smartest people in any room, absolutely. It isn’t that they have to win trades. Both teams can win from them and it isn’t a bad thing. We would be re-allocating resources to places of need. The thing that bothers me about a deal like Lopez for Mullins is how long Lopez is under team control and will they get him to extend. I believe he has two remaining arb years. Mullins for him straight up would be great, but I doubt they do that. What else do you need to give up? If they want Bradish, for instance, fine. What are they sending back to balance that out some? There is a hundred scenarios they could have unfold. It’s a lot of fun for us to speculate, but I have generally stayed out of these conversations on here because they are too time consuming for me. Fit and opportunity is what we don’t really know the whole story on. Pro scouting and probing other org coaching connections becomes vital. They do not need to bring in some talented guy, but he’s a turd in the clubhouse.