Jammer7

Somewhat related, but Riley Greene is our new neighbor. He bought a house in my neighborhood a few months ago, but we have not actually seen him yet. He’s about 10 houses down, and my little guy and I are looking forward to asking him if we can fish off his new dock. Maybe he’ll throw in a few hitting tips.

I sure wish Elias was picking for us in 1999! I would love to see what he would have done with 7 picks in the top 50. Oh well, we got Syd Thrift instead.

Gunnar will have the better numbers over Adley, as he is much younger, a great talent and he has a great work ethic. My only reasons for having him third, right now anyway, is that he has played only one season, and I have little doubt it will continue, but show me. Second, Adley has leadership intangibles that every good team needs, to go with his talents. Third, Witt has similar tools to Gunnar, except that he is a good bit faster runner. And he is a surer bet to stay at SS at this point. Though Witt is up and down at times. A catcher does so many things to impact the game that are not easily quantified beyond wins/losses. If Gunnar would have come up when Adley did, instead of Adley, would he have had as significant a role in turning around the season for 2022? I don’t think it would have been even close to the same. The great catchers have a daily presence about them in how they manage the game and the clubhouse. As I wrote before, we can put the top four in any order right now, although I have Carroll a clear fourth. An eye of the beholder thing. A few years from now, Gunnar could easily be seen as the best player out of this draft. But he had Adley to lean on in many ways as he matured in 2023. Adley is a mature confident winner, who makes the players on his team better. For the Orioles, Adley was the right pick. Tough call, though.

You could argue any order for the top four. I would have Gunnar third, over Carroll, but that’s just my opinion. Ask me again five years from now, and Gunnar might be #1.

I saw the same video, and others like it over the years. Solid stuff from Rodriguez there. Cowser may be very cerebral, and his intake of data and pitch shapes from the elite in the sport should help him. That kind of tipping info is passed within the dugout from vets to young players commonly. Or from coaches. A game within the game, like sign-stealing. Pitchers will sometimes set the hitter up as well if they think they are keying on something. I hope he is very intelligent, and able to get going early in the Spring. He can rid himself of the doubt that consumed him, and get on with hitting like he is capable of.

Those are good questions. 1. Will they stash, and seemingly stifle, MLB ready talent in AAA? 2. Who does Elias prefer long term among OF candidates? Beavers would seem more dynamic, but maybe a lower floor. Tough call.

His value did go down some, sure it did. That does not mean he cannot be a solid MLB starting OF. It wasn’t just that he struggled, he wilted badly in his struggles. His body language was awful. He looked beat down by his struggles. Adley and Gunnar struggled badly, at times, before finding their footing. However, they never looked defeated. Frustrated, of course, but never defeated. He was afraid of making mistakes on defense, but I think that is fixable given time. He was late on velo, a lot, but that is fixable for a guy with his ability. He looked like he was letting everything travel deep. Maybe that was his process, to just see as many pitches as he could, and to see them deep. To try to speed up his adjustments and judging spin and stuff. That is the only way I can make sense of how bad he looked. He may be a guy who puts a lot of pressure on himself. Being in a playoff hunt might be an issue for him. He might be a guy who produces bigger numbers for a second divisional club, though. Those questions are fair to me, considering his terrible look in his debut. The timing of his debut cannot be ignored. I’m not eager to trade him at this point, unless it is for a top end starter. You have to give to get. Longer-term, where does he play if he stays? LF? I don’t see CF skills. For him to be a fit, they’ll have to move some vets on the roster currently. Are they going to do that right now and commit to a guy that has not shown he cannot handle it, not yet anyway? I have no idea what the plan is, but I do not think Cowser has anything to prove in AAA. He is a talented guy, but what he ends up being at the MLB level may depend on how quickly he finds success and what his everyday opportunities are. You do not sit a guy like this, and make him a 4th OF type.

I think his stuff and track record justifies the opportunity. Let’s face it, he could fall flat on his face. The thing is, how will he respond to that?

I would be in favor of Hall getting the ball every fifth day, absolutely. He may need a break for a few weeks in July or August, because he certainly is not stretched out. There is no one with better pure stuff that we are going to acquire. I am not sure what Means will give us next year, innings-wise. We’ll likely have Irvin and Wells for starting depth.

I thought he was ok for the majority of the year, but faded badly. He was probably overpaid. He was 1.7 WAR on Baseball Ref and only .3 on Fangraphs. (I guess those are rWAR and fWAR respectively.) He won some games for us, and had some surprising power, and some really pro at bats. Just under a .700 OPS.

That thought certainly occurred to me. I have it on very good sources that PED’s among certain groups of players is still rampant. They just stay ahead of the tests, alter the drug slightly to stay ahead of what they know is being tested for. We all know that contract will never be picked up by Angelos. But all of the other stuff with that guy is just too much, for me anyway.

The PED’s don’t bother me, as long as they are over. His decision-making and immaturity does bother me. When Manny Machado has to rein him in constantly, you know it’s bad. A very talented kid, with a yuge contract. This is the kind of move that would likely wreck the chemistry they have built, unless he would come in very humble and assimilate. It screams bad move to me.

Ok, no worries. Just curious. This depth of analysis is quite an undertaking. Thanks for doing all of this. A lot of great insight, as always!

Regarding his defense, why is he likely a corner OF with 60 speed? Reads or routes not good? Arm looked decent in the limited video I could find.

My guess is something like .270/.340/430. I think he’ll have more power than last year, at least more extra base hits. He drives the ball well and uses the entire field. I like him a lot, just how professional he is and the way he grinds. I believe in him as he really impressed me with his work ethic in the few times I got to see his pregame work. (What he did no the field anyway.) He and Gunnar really work hard. I was not a fan of his work at 2B early, but he worked really hard to be average there. That is not a slight of him. He still isn’t the most graceful athletic guy there, but he’ll be solid. I like him better at 3B long term, despite the arm concerns. I have not seen Ortiz much, other than a few highlights and a few minor games streamed. Like everyone here, I’ve read a lot of glowing reports from people I trust. I would like to see the Orioles start the year with 2B Ortiz, SS Henderson and 3B Westburg. Mayo may be the 3B of the future, and Holliday will be there somewhere in the next year, but for 2024 I think this is the way I would go with the current roster. Urias fell off quite a bit last year with the bat, and Mateo is what he is. Henderson may be the only one of the three I want to see start guaranteed to not be traded, and he deserves to be the everyday SS for as long as that is what is best for the team. That kid posts up everyday and leads the way. He’s a star, and a winner. Every other player listed is yet unproven or strictly a role player.

They should look hard at the medicals, and be aggressive. They have an excellent medical staff, according to Elias, so bet on their opinion. Woodruff is too good, when healthy, to not take a chance on unless the medicals are that bad. Mid-season return, at least that is what I have read. Do you pitch him in the back end of the pen for the rest of the year and perhaps make him a starter in 2025 as he is further away from surgery? Even best case scenario, he’ll have to get built back up and stronger over time.

Agreed. If the bat is that special, keep him healthy for as many games as you can, and for as many years as you can. Put him at 1B, and sign him to an extension early in his career.

I understand. There should be, unless there is some plan to keep payroll extremely low for an impending sale. We know the money is there. The fans have come back. No more cheap excuses. They do not have to go crazy and give out Texas Rangers type deals, but they can still get a back end starter like Lorenzen, Wacha, Gibson, Montas or whomever. They’ll have to trade for a Burnes, or maybe it is Cease. And find a closer, somehow.

No doubt. That is a few things. One, the Orioles were not competitive. Two, they were not spending money, a very Angelos thing. Three, before the wall was moved back, most good pitchers did not want to come here and see their ERA’s balloon. Elias referenced this in his recent comments. He spoke of FA’s interested in coming to Baltimore now. There are no guarantees, unless of course you do not try. I am a little optimistic, maybe I am wrong for that. We’ll see. Insanity can be defined as doing the same thing over and over again, expecting a different result. Standing pat, with this team, would be insanity.

No pitcher is a lock, not one. I like Kremer, and I’m willing to part with him in the right deal. You are saying we should not move him in this deal. Fine, we disagree. Let’s move on. Third starters are easily found in free agency if you don’t like your in-house options. Gibson added a lot to this team beyond his numbers, and I think we more than got our money’s worth. There are other options out there, many of them. Wells in the back end of a bullpen, I’m fine with. Closer, with his health, no way. Occasionally closing games, perhaps. We need a closer. This window will not be open every year.

Ok, so you’d rather have four years of Kremer over one year of Burnes and two years of Williams? You would rather give up more prospects than to give up Kremer. Frobby’s post, to me, was pointing out that Irvin made strides and improved. Those stats were indicative of changes he had made. There was not any major changes with Kremer, though he did change his pitch usage, I think the sweeper was used much less as the season went on. Look at Kremer’s game logs and splits. He still had some big blow up starts through the year, particularly his last one. He had a 5.91 ERA in June, for instance. So it was not just April. He had a good, solid, and mostly healthy year. I’m not down on him, he just is what he is. He’s not a guy I feel great about in a big game. https://www.mlb.com/player/dean-kremer-665152?stats=splits-r-pitching-mlb&year=2023

You cannot cherry-pick like that. He’s a solid 3, that is it. He’s improved, absolutely. But he is replaced easily.

Well, as Ftobby already stated, Irvin is a possibility. Wells says Hello. Is DL Hall a starter? How about McDermott, Povich, Zimm, Davidson, Armbruester, or others Elias will pick up under the radar? It is difficult to know about what they have behind the curtain. Or the FA route with resigning Kyle Gibson. Lorenzen is another guy that intrigues me, depending on his price. There are several others. I do not undervalue Kremer. You have to give up value to get it back. I doubt we’ll get Burnes, but we have the pieces to go get him. Kremer included in the deal limits the prospect capital you would have to send back. The postseason is tournament baseball. Burnes makes us better, a lot better, than Kremer. That is the bottom line for me. 101 wins us great, but 0-3 was a kick in the groin.

I understand, it is a gamble. It really only would make the most sense if the Orioles would give him an extension, and there is no reason to believe Angelos will do that. Even if we cannot reach an extension, I think he’ll bring enough in his contract year to make it worth it in some me ways. Buys a year for Bradish and Rodriguez to further grow. Gives us a legit shot at going deep into playoff contention. There are no guarantees that Kremer will be healthy, or any pitcher. Kremer’s production will be easier to replicate with what we have in house, or with free agents. The package I was talking about was for Burnes and Williams. It’s a pipe dream, I know.

Awesome info, thanks Frobby! After looking at it and realizing that four of our top 5 from that timeframe did almost all of their best work in other uniforms, ouch! In the years to come, I look forward to the comparison of the same years range with Adley, Gunnar, Grayson, Jackson, Heston, Colton, Jordan and Coby.