Jammer7

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/minor-league-baseball-playoffs-will-return-in-2021/ No playoffs in FCL. But, it is exciting that there will be playoffs again.

I think there will be a time when our inventory is where it needs to be. Then, you can take some bigger risks with higher picks, but only on the right guys. Right now, Elias is still adding talent for the next competitive cycle and he cannot afford big misses, not yet. And by then, we should not be in the top 10-15 picks anyway. I have seen Grayson since high school, so I was happy with the pick at that time. But HS pitchers is the riskiest demographic out there in any draft. But how else do you get them into your organization, right? A lot goes into the evaluation of a pitcher. What is the talent, the upside/projection, and the wear and tear? What is the make up? What would be their development plan, and is your organization able to develop that pitcher?

There is some risk on every pick. Adley has some risk, but a very high floor. Martin had risk in that part of his value was alleged to be defensive versatility. Martin had a 60 hit tool, with 50 power. The risk was that he'd be a 2B, or a LF since his arm was 45-50. That isn't a great value at 1-2. (Look at his stats this year, 43 K's in 142 at bats) Pitchers, no matter how talented, have enormous risk. I think we are arguing about semantics, mostly anyway. https://www.mlb.com/prospects/bluejays/austin-martin-668885 I looked at the schedule. South Alabama and Gonzaga are not as bad as you think. And they lost to Illinois State. But Texas, Baylor and Oklahoma are high level competition. And he mashed against them too. Don't forget they have more data than you and I know about. Team USA, Fall Arkansas data and so on. The scout knew the kid (and the family) for many years, coached his brother. His improvement each year may not show in stats as much, but it is there. You have to watch his video to see it. I have watched a ton of video on him. I followed the kid since he was the SEC Freshman of the Year. I was surprised at the pick, but then I went back and watched the video. His process really was impressive. He improved his physicality and defensive abilities. He played in about as many meaningful games as anyone ever has. SEC, NCAA Regionals, Super Regionals, College World Series and TEAM USA. The kid had been batting 3rd or 4th on all of those teams. He can hit, and he can hit for power. All players are flawed, but his production will be somewhere close to Martin's if he can get healthy. I will bet you a steak dinner on that. We can do this all night, but there are already threads with this stuff in them. I am at work with nothing else to do, at the moment. I am not Mike Elias' caddy. If I think he screws up, I will say so. If he takes Rocker, and pays him slot, I will call that a bad idea based on the pitcher that he has been nearly all of 2021, regardless of what some feel his upside may be.

The risk profile for any pitcher is much higher than a college position player. Injuries end a lot of pitchers' careers before they get started. The risk in Kjerstad's case is mitigated by the under slot signing. What was it again, a $2.1 million savings? They looked closely at the data of his swing and miss and found that he did not miss many pitches that he should swing at. In fact, his contact rate was excellent on pitches in the zone, according to Elias. This is something they feel they can continue to teach him. They felt his pitch recognition was excellent. And, they felt that he was about to explode into the top of the draft like Bleday and others have done in the recent past. Not that I put much into mock drafts, especially last year, but he was mocked by many to go around 7th. The group of players after the first few could have gone in any order up to about 15. And after the draft, the same publications came out and said they did not value Kjerstad as well as they should have. They found out that teams liked him after all, just that no one was talking about it before the draft. Callis said this about two weeks after the draft. I posted the podcast here when it came out. If it makes you happy, I'll say that Rocker is EXTREME RISK, and then I'll say that Kjerstad was a MEDIUM RISK. I would say, for the sake of argument, that Leiter is a HIGH RISK. I believe their profiles are that different. My opinion. Can we just wait about three years and see if Elias is pretty good at this? He has surely made mistakes, and he'll make more. But to judge Kjerstad with no professional sample data seems silly.

Reread what I wrote. He made some improvements to make more contact. Specifically, he swung less at balls outside the zone. His swing decisions became much better, and he did more damage. Minor swing adjustments as well. He improved every year. He competed at a high level, against top competition in the SEC and Internationally. He improved each year. Have we not talked about this enough? They did play a moderate schedule, like all teams. They did play Texas, Baylor and Oklahoma though. And he hit well against them, including a 445 foot home run and a bunt single. So no, I am not kidding. Are you kidding? Or just pushing the same tired anti-Elias schtick?

I listened to it this afternoon. Very good interview, but nothing earth shattering or new. He talked about the added risk of taking a pitcher with a high pick. He also spoke of the dynamics of taking a high school player, and how scouts are able to judge their abilities compared to college players. He also talked about the virtues of judging intangibles. Elias stated he made mistakes early in his career in not spending time to get to know the player. He spoke of the cooperative relationship between player development and scouting departments. He spoke of the PD folks involvement in the draft and the scouts input into the development process. This is awesome.

No, he wasn’t a high risk profile. They believed in the sustainable process he showed, and the small sample size you mentioned was all they had to go on for all of them. It wasn’t as though he wasn’t thought of as a premium talent prior to that. Pitchers break easy. I think he is dinged up now. His grades right now do not show a value at 1-5 slot. If he wanted to take a $2 million cut like Kjerstad did, that might be worth it more so. But I doubt that happens.

Rocker is a talented guy, but the risk profile is bad. Elias still is not in a position where he can gamble like that. Rocker’s mechanics are not what they should be. Sometimes his conditioning is not that great. And I wonder about his health with his velo down most of the year. I get why you like him. I think we all like him, and want to be believe he can be like the guy who struck out 18 against Duke. But that guy has not shown up much. If they take him, he has to sign for less than our slot. It would still be a big risk. I would not like it much, and they would have their work cut out with him. The reward could be huge, of course. My son competed against this kid for a few years in travel ball. I have seen him many times over the years since the age of 13. Him, Shane Baz, Matt Liberatore, Max Denaburg, Nolan Gorman, Lyon Richardson and our own Grayson Rodriguez, along with many more.

Well, Rocker was sitting at 93 on the fastball tonight, from what I saw. His secondaries were poor, especially the slider. The change up occasionally flashed above average. Command was just awful. He competed, but he got hit hard. There has to be a health issue there. The mechanics are inconsistent, but the foundation is solid. He did not pitch like a guy that belongs in the top 5 of the draft.

They can save, but they would have to save on some other picks as well. As you posted, the slot is roughly $1.5 million less than last year. Maybe they go over slot in one or two other picks. Whatever happens, Elias has done his due diligence.

Like you said, we disagree.

He is a sophomore in college sports eligibility. 2020 does not count. Maybe you don’t see why he might prefer another team, but if there is a preference, it could be nothing to do with the city and more to do with the organization. Let me be clear, this is only a hypothetical on my part, but that stuff happens sometimes. There is a lot that goes into this. I cannot agree with you on this one. It is highly unlikely Elias drafts Rocker. There is a lot of talent, but extreme risk on him. That said, whatever he does, I am sure it is well thought out and has the overall goal to make the organization stronger. I don’t think he cares much how the publications rate the farm system. He talks about it to the fans, sure. But that is meaningless, really, unless there is a stable winning major league team in the next few years. This is not the time to take extreme risks with your #1, IMHO.

A lot of people are assuming Elias will go underslot. Why? Because Keith Law and Jim Callis floated that out there? Between Houston and Baltimore, Elias has done that twice, out of seven drafts. (I believe seven is the right number) And in Houston, he was not the main decision maker. He was not the GM. The two times he has done it, Correa has shown be worthy of 1-1. We don’t yet know what Kjerstad is going to be, unfortunately. So, these rumors are nothing to get too excited about. The draft of Appel, and the HS arm (name escapes me at the moment) did not work out for them. Again, he was not the GM, so we do not know what his thought were. I will say that I am against taking Rocker, for slot. He is certainly a talent. But there are often times when he looks like a guy that should go in the middle of the first round. When you make that large of an investment on an arm, you better be sure that he has great medicals and the intangibles of a big winner. Their internal formula will assign a future value to all draft eligible players. I would think he is in the top 10 or so. People often forget that he could easily go back to school. This is his sophomore year. And do we know what his number is? It might be more than our slot. Does he even want to come to Baltimore? Some players do tell certain teams to not pick them, or they price themselves out for some teams. There is a lot that goes on behind the scenes. It isn’t a menu you simply order from.

Bednar is probably a back end of round 1 guy. McGreevy is more projectable, but I know nothing of the intangibles on him. I would be very surprised if they go pitcher at 1-5 unless it is Leiter. Even that would be mildly curious to me. I think it will be Watson or House, assuming Mayer, Lawlar, Jobe and Leiter are the first four picks. House might go to the Tigers, but I would be shocked if Elias goes with Jobe. Watson seems to be the guy. My only concern is the talk he ends up at 2B, or maybe CF. I do like the quick powerful hands and wrists, with a 55-60 arm. Cowser is much more interesting than I had realized. I think he’ll hit, run and defend in CF at a plus level. The knock is only average power, but the bat to ball skills are not apparently in doubt. If Cowser played at an SEC school, he would be a top 5-7 pick. Maybe they think he can add more strength and power with maturity. Harry Ford is a bit of a wildcard still. I have seen where he is described as a winner, a grinder, with great speed.

Absolutely. Maybe Madden is a guy that can increase the spin rate/axis on the fastball and breaking ball. Shape his pitches. Maybe the weight room holds the key for him. Bednar has a little lower ceiling, I think.

I thought so, too, and then I watched him against Mississippi State. The fastball velo is 95-96, but it was straight. The secondaries were good, but I was not real impressed. Only one outing, but I would say that Bednar impressed me much more in that game.

A lot of talk about Khalil Watson lately. He is certainly an outstanding talent and I would be a fan of the pick if he is our guy. Harry Ford is another toolsy guy, and maybe we save a little money for another pick. Colton Cowser was Keith Law's mock pick, and there is a lot to like there with a guy who might be a CF with 60 hit and run tools, but only 50 power currently. Supposed to have excellent hand-eye coordination and barrel awareness. I have not seen his name linked to the Orioles, but if they decide to go college pitcher, Mike McGreevy out of UC Santa Barbara is very interesting to me. Seems very much what Elias looks for in a college arm. A strike thrower with command of a very good four pitch mix, 91-93 and touches 96 with run and sink. Comps to Shane Bieber at this stage. I would still not count out Brady House. The 70 power and arm are exciting. The only tool seen as average is his speed, the rest are above average. He is probably a very good 3B down the line, but is an very good athlete nonetheless. That profile seems very much what Elias has liked over the years. Any of these picks are very good, depends on who is still there and what their numbers are.

There is a lot of heat on the fastball and slider. The mechanics are violent, the finish is poor and he falls off significantly, and he is inverted in the back side. He is 6'-01" 235 or so. I hope he is not the pick. Good stuff, but his profile screams surgery, and reliever, to me. Maybe a contender takes him and slots him into their pen sooner than later. Now, Michael McGreevy out of UC Santa Barbara, him I could see. He is 6'-04" 200 and sits 91-93, touches 96, with good sink and finish. A good above average four pitch mix. A strike thrower. Comparisons to Shane Bieber in college.

Nothing really specific beyond taking pitches that are not good to hit. Being a little less aggressive on borderline pitches. Buck Britton and their hitting coach have spoken about how the team works on these things. Matt Blood talked about it as well. I do not know about mechanical things. Ortiz obviously is exciting with the strength he added as well.

That is my hope as well. Sort of a JJ Hardy type, probably not as much power.

I have seen you beating that drum lately. That would be an unique gamble, certainly. I’m not ready to do that, but the idea isn’t unsound for a guy dominating in AA.

Agreed. I wonder if the sinker/slider combo comes back more so. It has to have somewhat of a correction. I forgot about Hernaiz, he has a ways to go with his bat though. Don’t sleep on Grenier. If he continues to hit the way he has the past 6 weeks. People still love his steady reliable defense.

Well, he is struggling some now. lol You know I agree with you for the most part, in that they need to be challenged when ready. He’ll be fine.

I can certainly see that comp. And yeah, the game has changed to bigger SS. The shift and all of the analytics come into play. I still have a hard time giving anyone’s upside anything until they actually do it. Henderson makes a ton of errors right now. Not a big issue, not now. He is still an elite prospect, sure. If I’m a pitcher, I want the guy who makes the most plays, turns outs into outs. But there are also less ground balls these days. I can see it both ways.

Thanks for the great synopsis! I agree it is very difficult to rank them at this point. A lot of unknowns. I read the comments by Kiley McDaniel, Callis and Mayo. I cannot say that “compact frame” and solid SS excites me when considering a profile of a 5’-09” HS SS, who is “not the elite runner that Abrams is.” I admit that I, like you, have seen limited video and such. If Elias takes him, I’m a fan. But just looking at what is publicly available, I agree he profiles at 2B. A 55 grade arm at SS is ok, but not exceptional. Ideally, I want a little more at SS, but above average is not really a knock. It just isn’t a plus. As players mature and gain muscle and size, the arm can sometimes slide a bit. That said, nothing wrong with those things if he hits, and he “competes” at an elite level. We need “winners” in this organization, even if they are nearly average defenders. It would be difficult to put such an unknown ahead of some of the existing players. Personally, I think Henderson will have to prove that he can stay at SS, not saying he cannot, just that he has to show that every step. Henderson and Westburg both project to be 3B, or perhaps a corner OF. We’ll see. I personally value defense at SS a great deal over offense. So to rank Grenier and Ortiz at the top right now is based on my value of steady quality defense, and a resurgence at the plate for both. Servideo is supposed to be another excellent defender and the early returns are that his OBP and ability to be patient at the plate are excellent. His versatility seems to indicate a utility profile, but we’ll see what offense he provides. Hall is generally thought to no longer be a SS prospect from what I have read.