Jammer7

I did not mean to post that at you, just adding to what you and Corn were saying.

Moises Ramirez was signed during the Duquette era on 8/28/18 Moises Ramirez Stats, Fantasy & News | MiLB.com. Stiven Acevedo was signed during the Elias era on 4/8/19 Stiven Acevedo Stats, Fantasy & News | MiLB.com. I happen to agree with Corn on this one. When Duquette arrived, he lauded his ties to DR and Venezuela and expected to dive deep into the International marketplace. Why not? He had tremendous success there and was very astute at player acquisition and development in Montreal and Boston. Ownership absolutely tied his hands there. Dan made many mistakes, sure, but the lack of International prospects and the Davis contract were not his fault. Both of those things really hurt the Orioles for many years. I think most here know all of that too well. Duquette also signed OF Kevin Infante, 1B/OF Josue Cruz, and a few others in a flurry of International signings he made at the end of his time in August and September 2018.

The truth is really painful right now.

I think MLBpipeline sees Westburg's scouting grades at 50-55 across the board. I think they see him as a high floor steady guy, but still a fairly higher ceiling. I think they are selling his hit tool and raw power short. His arm is the only 55 grade on their scouting report. I think we will see them re-evaluate that in the off-season. I think we will see Westburg improve his power in the offseason. With Gunnar, he is more exciting a prospect with 60 power/arm and 55 hit tool. His in game power is more apparent right now and he is only 20 in high A. Yes, he is struggling right now, but he is having good at bats and should see better results before the end of the year. Just my $.02, but Colton Cowser is going to climb much higher in these rankings by this time next year. He'll add some strength and loft to his swing and take off. I do not know that he'll stay a CF, but maybe. His bat to ball skills are just really impressive. I also think Coby Mayo is going to join him. Mayo is a dude! Stowers strikeouts are ridiculous, 122 in 366 plate appearances. That said, he is remarkably patient and productive. I am a little surprised to see Adam Hall at #15 and to not see Rob Neustrom in these rankings at all. Tony is a lot more accurate with his power rankings.

Leyba had a great opportunity, and he did not capitalize on it. Too bad.

That’s fair. He did just get back, and has barely played for two years. I liked where he was last Spring, when he was driving the ball gap to gap. His hands were loaded in a much more powerful position. The current iteration does remind me of 2019. He just never seems to get his hands back enough before launch. His trigger needs to be sooner from that pre-pitch relaxed posture.

Saying Adley took an under slot deal is technically true. It is not in the common usage for draft talk, and in that way it is kinda silly to say it. All 1-1 picks have signed under slot, I believe, under the current CBA. Adley was the BPA.

Agreed. When you have average stuff, at best, you’d better have great command and learn how to sequence. You have to pitch. This year matters if they are not mentally tough enough. If their confidence is so shaken that they will not challenge hitters, that is a problem.

Yeah, those questions are hard to answer right now. How long does the learning process take? The biggest gains are always in the beginning of something new. We’ve seen that in the minor league performance gains since 2019. But, when those prospects, such as Zimmerman, Akin, Kremer, Lowther, Wells, etc…have come up, they are getting shelled. My question is, would Elias have brought those guys listed into the organization? Are they equipped with what Elias and Holt are looking for? I think Zimmermann and Kremer are guys for them, but they have to get mentally tougher. The others are probably not much more than back-end shuttle guys, maybe bullpen middle guys. Maybe.

With Cowser, he might be a candidate, but I think they will want him to get into instructs and work on some swing changes to add some loft. And they will want to get him into a conditioning routine for the off season as well. He makes great contact and he is more advanced than many thought, but they will want him to be able to drive the ball in the air more.

I don’t think we should send any AAA guys to the AFL. If you want a AAA guy to get reps, have them play Winter ball in the DR or PR. It s a higher level of comp. Just another thought, but Elias may be making a few deals with prospects going out. The AFL is also a chance to showcase those players, maybe 1-2, he may be willing to move. The roster decisions prior to the R5 draft are going to be interesting.

It depends on who is healthy at the end of the season, and needs more reps. I would not send Adley. As a catcher, and I know he has played 1B and DH’d some, but I just rest his knees and get him ready for AAA and to make his debut in July 2022. I would like to send Westburg and Henderson, but I might want to rest them this off-season. Just get them into an off-season conditioning/lifting program. I do like the idea of sending Terrin Vavra, Cadyn Grenier, Kyle Stowers and Hudson Haskin. Joey Ortiz would be great, but I would not think he will be ready after labrum surgery on his left shoulder. Maverick Handley might be a guy to send. Maybe Patrick Dorrian or Zach Watson. Adam Hall is another I might consider, but he might need to focus on a program to add more muscle to his frame. Pitchers are going to be interesting. With so many watching their innings from the COVID stoppage, hard to say yet. I would not think we send any real top 30 type prospects. Maybe Cody Sedlock, Gray Fenter and Cameron Bishop.

When Mike Elias took over, the Orioles were a mess throughout the organization. Administratively, personnel-wise, technologically, infrastructure…complete disarray. Whatever people think, there is only just so much money for a team on the lower end of mid-market. The contracts of Chris Davis, and even Alex Cobb, really hamstrung the payroll flexibility. That said, these teams were not designed to win. Absolutely true. It was by design, based on the fact that they could not afford to spend at a level to make them compete for a playoff run. So spending any money that takes away from your long range goals seems a bad idea to me. I think it is an important distinction to say that these teams were designed to lose, rather than to say they were not designed to win. Hyde had these guys competitive the first two years. They lost a lot of games, but they competed on most nights. This year, very polar performance. Some decent, but mostly just bad. When Holt left the team, for whatever reason, this team played awful baseball. The pitching really suffered, and it has not come back, especially the pen. And the sticky stuff probably has had a big effect on the few decent options in our pen. Anything that has an effect on the grip, and the spin rates of moderate arm talent, is going to affect the pen on this team. Holt put a lot of emphasis on high spin rates and pitching up in the zone. So, now what? Going forward, despite the recent hit pieces by Olney and Rosenthal, it should be time for Mike Elias to get his GM on. Haters are always there. It is time to put together a team built to compete for a playoff run. And I think that has been the plan all along. It’s the last year of Davis’ contract, I believe. He held on to the main players at the deadline, though I still think Trey may be dealt in the off-season. They certainly could sign him to an extension, but I do not think it is an obvious need. Elias needs to move some of his depth for pitching help that makes sense for this team. A few veteran pitchers to help the rotation and pen would go a long way. There will be many young players in need of R5 protection, so it is time. We cannot rely on Means and four rookies or second year pitchers in the rotation. Make Akin, Kremer, Baumann, Bradish, Zimmerman, Wells, and all of the rest actually earn their way. Hold them accountable and stop holding their hands when they come up. No more mass player development at the ML level would be a welcome change.

I agree that DJ has had ample opportunity to perform, and he simply has not gotten the job done offensively or defensively. He should have claimed the majority of the DH at bats this season. He is not going to get any more athletic, and they should hide his glove from him. His eye at the plate is excellent, sure. In this season, he is almost always late on the fastball and appears to be caught in-between. Not sure why. Is he unable to recognize pitches? The bat is not quick, but I wouldn't say he has a slow bat either. The hands can work, and they should. For me, it just looks to be all mental. He cannot be sitting on the fastball right now, but maybe he should. What does he have to lose at this point? He should sit dead red and never get off it. If you consistently cannot hit even an average fastball, you are not a major league player.

I did not see much of the games the past two nights. It seems like Mateo is as advertised. He may be a better hitter, mechanically anyway. He might be a bit rusty, and that is understandable. He has time to show what he can do.

An excellent post, Rob. Very fair legitimate criticism. I agree with everything you wrote. It is time to build the major league team. The pitching has to be addressed. It would not surprise me to see Elias trade some minor leaguers (a few) this off-season. With many becoming rule 5 eligible, it seems to make some sense.

There isn’t a magic that others do not have anymore. There are special scouts. There are special coaches and managers. Most teams have models and algorithms and nerds with pocket protectors and taped glasses. They are all intelligent. Sometimes, they just get lucky and things fall right into their laps. I will just say that Mike Elias has done a good job so far. A lot of work to do to fulfill his goals here. So far, I am happy with his progress, overall.

Ha, listening to any politician…funny guy! ? I don’t disagree with anything you said. The comments have rarely been candid, but often these guys are all vague. They have to be for a variety of issues that come up. That is management of any business these days. It is also smart to keep many things in house or close to the vest. Why give away what your plans are? All of these guys/gals have things they can point to as mistakes. The San Diego Padres just claimed Shaun Anderson from us. They are a well-run organization, a contending one, and they thought enough of him to claim him. Preller is a genius and Elias is a poor GM for some here, but they make the same moves. ??

Chris Davis was watching at home and saying, "I would have made that play." And he would be correct. Maybe Mountcastle would have made that play as well. Going forward, we need to make Mountcastle's development at 1B a priority. Even the best defenders need help from the 1B sometimes. Many times this year, our 1B situation cost us errors on other players and themselves. Trey's rust, and Ryan's inexperience have cost guys like Urias, Galvis and Franco some error. Those extended innings, and well, you know the rest.

Absolutely true. A really good post, sir. Yaz and Pop are mistakes that Elias has to wear. Elias has brought in lower budget acquisitions and most have not worked out. Iglesias and Galvis did. Franco, Matt Harvey and Felix Hernandez were worth the shot. LeBlanc and Milone were low risk/cost guys that provided some value. But generally, Elias has a bunch of young players to evaluate at the ML level to see what he has moving forward. You do not want to bring in a bunch of older veterans above the ML minimum to clog things up. Guys like Ramon Urias, Hanser Alberto, Jorge Lopez, Shaun Anderson, Marcos Diplan, Pedro Severino, Jorge Mateo, Kelvin Gutierrez and Pat Valaika were all significant prospects at one point. Some were Top 100, or at least in their previous teams’ top 30 prospects. These are guys that were worth the shot. And many here would have been critical if they were not selected on waivers. Most of Elias’ trades have been focused on minor league talent acquisition, like you wrote. Early returns on Bundy seem to be very positive. The Cobb trade, probably about even at the moment. The Givens trade is a win. The Miguel Castro trade looks pretty good at the moment. The Iglesias trade looks good at the moment. The releases of Hanser Alberto and Renato Nunez were also intelligent moves despite being criticized widely by many here. Too flawed and too expensive. They had their opportunities, as have many others, and they proved they were not keepers. Shaun Anderson recently showed that. But these are guys that need more than just one appearance to show what they are and for coaches to get a feel for them. The Fulmer kid was another example. A high draft pick, talented arm, and just not worthy in their estimation after getting hands on. San Francisco was fortunate that Yaz worked out, though. If they knew something we did not, they could have had him in rule 5 for the previous three years. I also think they are helped out by the fact that it is San Francisco. Put that team is a small ballpark in the AL East and I think they are nowhere near the record they have now. The Gausman signing was very astute. Again, I think he is helped out by the big parks in the NL West, aside from Colorado of course. I have watched a few games he pitched out there and he still gives up a lot of fly balls that would have easily been out at Camden Yards. In San Francisco and San Diego, and Dodger Stadium at night, a fly ball is just that. I am no apologist. I do choose to give Elias the benefit of the doubt. I try to look at the entire picture, and the factors that go into each decision. I find Elias to be very intelligent, well-prepared and a good communicator. He has been about as transparent and genuine as he could be since arriving. He said we were going to lose a lot. He said we were going to try to develop and evaluate the guys in our system, while looking for low cost talent to acquire to do the same. He said he wanted to build a long term winner through an elite talent pipeline. He said he would cut payroll and reallocate those resources into technology, development personnel, and various other infrastructure investments. He said he would tear down and restructure every facet of the organization. He has done what he said he would, so far. He needs to prove he can make the next steps to turn this around into a winning team. By the end of 2022, we should have a much clearer idea whether or not he is on target. That, to me, is the big picture. Not the W/L record in 2021. Not how sexy the trades look to fans a minute after they happen. Let us not forget that losing bring higher picks. That was the plan all along, at least it sure seems to be the case of tanking intentionally. Provide a minimal MLB product, but bad enough to lose a lot and draft high. I do not like it at all. But that is the shortest road to turning it around completely. Elias is committed to his model, and he will make mistakes. Let’s see what he does when he is supposed to win. Then, I will break out the pitch fork.

I agree that he needs to make that play. I think that is just a lack of time there, though. He has been in the middle infield almost exclusively until he hit MLB. And then, mostly in the OF for San Diego. He needs work there, certainly, but I give him a pass on that one. Those liners hook, and if you’re not used to that it can be tough. Coaches cannot really replicate that in practice with a fungo. Let’s see what he does at 2B and SS. Most of the scouting reports out there on Mateo are really really good. Some are critical of him being too aggressive and then too passive at other times. All of them cite plus plus athleticism and a plus arm. I liked what I saw of the swing last night. We didn’t lose the game because of that play. Paul Fry’s lack of command, and Connor Greene’s lack of command cost us that one.

I’m not starting a fight with you. I rarely reply to you, but a high percentage of your posts are the same tune. We know you don’t like Mike Elias’ decisions on many things. Even when you like the move, and as you said, you do, you have to throw in there something negative about the GM. We can look into any GM around the league and point to mistakes after three years on the job. I think he has made incredible strides here, overall. And you and I disagree on most things you write about as mistakes, not all. All opinions are welcome here. Maybe just present them in a more mature argument and people will respect you more here. Someone here told me the same thing many years ago, and I have tried to make that happen.

Mateo has 80 grade speed, according to Baseball America. I just read the write-up in the BA 2020 Prospect Handbook on Mateo. They talked about his dramatic ups and downs, his inconsistency on offense and defense. He was the preseason #8 prospect in the Oakland system. They cited his athleticism, plus arm strength and ability to play multiple positions. I am paraphrasing here, but essentially they describe him as enigmatic, maybe even erratic. It said evaluators cannot figure him out. They said that best case scenario might be .250 with 15 HR’s. it is just one write-up, but it might be one of the strangest ones I have ever read on BA. None of the other articles I have read were quite so critical of a guy in their top 100 in 2019. Who knows what to expect. Why not see what you have on this. I think it is a good move. He only has to be a little better than Valaika, not too much to ask.

Um, ok, did you just use the terms dazzle and waiver wire acquisitions? C’mon man, that is ridiculous. Waiver claims rarely do much at all, maybe become a borderline regular. No GM dazzles with waiver claims. You’re anti-Elias rants are predictable and tiresome.

All of that is great info. Thanks for that. The biggest issue with him making contact has been swing decisions. The strike to ball slider used to really eat him up. He has gotten stronger as well. His power production is much less than before, despite the increased exit velo. The bigger issue for me is just the balance. He falls off on nearly every swing. And he does seem to be pull happy. Everything he has ever done is hard to judge due to small sample size. I am just going by what I see.