Jammer7

Most of the top players were already committed this year. We got Hernandez and Basallo since they got squeezed out by their previously committed organizations. We were fortunate to get those players with Kobe’s knowledge and relationships down there. This year should be better. I think the next year should be the one we have bigger expectations. The new facility might be ready by then. The name of the organization will have some traction and some of the players being recruited will have a track record to look at. Now that there is depth, I would expect them to spend their money on more talented and expensive guys as they become available. Faulting the organization for spending is a narrow argument without mentioning the massive amounts of capital spent on facilities and infrastructure. What problem is actually solved by spending recklessly? If you can accomplish what you are able and do so while spending a small amount less than others, is that not smart management?

Agree. Don’t get me wrong, talent wins games. And nice guys don’t necessarily win much. What I am saying is that Elias has stated he puts an emphasis on intangibles that allow the prospect to make progress and likely to reach toward his potential ceiling. So, if things are roughly even, talent wise, the intangibles count more so. All the talent in the world means nothing if you will not get close to it.

HS arms are just so risky. But I do love the profile if you can afford the risk.

Those are my thoughts as well. In the mocks that have Lawlar available, most have us taking Watson, Davis or Cowser. I cannot see Elias passing on Lawlar if he likes him. I think he puts a lot of emphasis on character, mental toughness, intelligence and determination. That said, if he passes on him, I think it has more to do with liking another player more so than the money.

Hard to say who will be available. Mayer and Leiter will probably be gone. After that, wide open field of players with similar value, but different price points. Elias has chosen two college bats with his first picks. He could afford to go after a higher end HS position player here as the system is not barren at any position at any level. The safe route (higher floor) is Davis, if he is available. The best player might come from among Lawlar, House and Watson. Ford is a real dark horse. I think this pick will come down to intangibles of players more than their bonus amount. If Elias is impressed with Lawlar, I think he should be willing to pay him slightly over slot. None of the mocks I have seen have the Orioles with any interest in Lawlar. I assume that is because of his number to forego Vandy. If Lawler’s number is more than Elias is willing to go, then House makes sense. House has the loudest tools and best physicality. He is probably not a SS for long, but he is a plus defender athletic enough to be an outstanding 3B or RF. Elias believes in his player development staff. So, my pick is Brady House. But I am pulling for Lawlar. Watson, if House is not a available.

I agree. And the answer is, “I don’t know.” I have never seen him play 3B. He appears to be athletic enough to play there, but IDK. You’ll have to love the bat to take him at 1-5, I think.

Tony, what are your thoughts on Rob Neustrom? He has flashed some serious power, and he has been a steady, if unspectacular performer for Bowie.

He is certainly has legit tools. The only question for me is the length of his swing. If he shortens that up, he should shore up the strikeouts some with better swing decisions.

I agree, though some have done it, supposedly. It is not good. This industry does not reward shenanigans like that. Be a man of your word, and embrace just how lucky you are to be in the position you are in. Of course, teams sometimes do similar things. I think Mike Elias has garnered a lot of respect in the industry for how he does business.

I agree. I mean, they can get him into a workout program and keep him lean. Do some HIT training and lots of stretching and such, perhaps that maximizes his athletic performance without losing his speed. I would be curious what his shuttle and exit velo numbers are.

Can you clarify? Do you mean to increase their number, or decrease and settle for less than what they were asking for?

Not according to Elias. He says he never makes the decision of exactly who he wants to draft until the day or night before the draft. Information changes up to the moment. I am sure he has an idea of a small group. He is talking to the players, agents and scouts until the decision is made. This is what he has outlined since he has been here.

It looks like Davis will hit with power, and a solid average. The plate discipline is good as well. He looks athletic enough to play a corner OF or INF position. The arm is enough for RF or 3B for sure. If they take Davis, it should be for the bat and not because of his defense at catcher. I cannot support taking a guy at 1-5 to DH him. Cowser is a guy you can project more power with added strength, but what is the cost to his speed/agility. More of a flat plane guy, so a swing adjustment is necessary to get more power. But honestly, I don’t think I would do that. He is going to be a high average guy. Just keep working on the swing decisions and keep the high barrel rate. More of a gap to gap guy. He can always add strength and power down the road. I am not sure he is a CF, have not seen enough to make that call. What I have read is that he should be able to stay in CF.

The OP is an absolutely ridiculous and baseless assertion. I think you might have earned the most down arrows I have ever seen in the history of the OH. And I have been here since 1997. I may have given 5 down arrows in that time. You have three of them. Your time here should end soon. Enjoy the ban I hope you receive.

I have read that in various sources today as well. House is rated at 70 power/70 arm/50 run, and he is likely an athletic 3B, or at least a corner OF. So, I wish they would stop calling him a SS, despite the fact that some scouts supposedly said he might’ve able to stick…I’m out on that. Look at his frame. I think he fits Elias’ power profile nicely. All depends if he thinks the swing and miss that plagued him earlier is a concern. Watson is not a SS either, not for me anyway. The hands are ok, but the actions and arms are not quite what I would like to see. In fairness, I have not seen any video from this HS season. So maybe he is better now. He is likely a 2B or CF, but 55 hit/55 power/65 run. I love the contact, barrels the ball with ease. Really great hands and wrists. It’s hard and loud contact all day. I just cannot believe they would have any interest in Rocker, but ok. And Frelick just doesn’t have enough tools to me. I think some of those names are smoke screens. Davis’ swing was much better this season, and he shortened up a once very high leg kick and a severe upper cut. I would be ok with him, but Watson and House make the most sense to me. If they go under-slot, I hope it is Cowser. That guy can really hit. If he was in the SEC, he would be in the top 5 solidly. Ford is a dude, and I love what I have read. I have not seen a ton of video on him. At this point, I am going to probably wait to watch much unless we take him. There is some talk by Callis he might slide and be an over slot in round 2. I’m not sure about that, but ok. Nobody knows who the pick will be. I doubt that Mike Elias has made a decision just yet. The publications said they spoke with agents the past few days and that was what they are basing this on. I am torn about Watson and House, but those are my two favorites among the most likely scenarios.

You are correct, according to various sources, including the signing scout just after the draft.

It seems like this year is the year the Orioles clear out some of the inventory in the minors. There was a lot of guys that they just needed to see play, and some have been released like JC Encarnacion and Jaylen Ferguson. Carmona still has time, I guess, because he still has a jersey on his back. But I doubt he gets many chances from here. He needs to keep hitting and I hope his defense is on point, because there is a lot of young infielders coming in behind him.

Excellent job, sir! I will not argue with one thing you wrote. Thanks for that. Hyde mentioned something a week or two ago about the competition in 2020 being very "different" than that these guys are facing in 2021. That point cannot be under-valued in the evaluation of disparate results. The only player that really disappointed me is Santander, but I think he is showing signs of coming to life with the bat. Akin and Kremer are the biggest under-achieving pitchers for me.

Not long ago, Shaun Anderson was considered a a good prospect out of UF. He was the Giants' #4 prospect in 2019 according to Baseball America. Only 26 years of age, 6'04" 225 lbs. and works in the 92-94 range mostly, bumping 96 frequently. I lost track of him over the past year, but he was highly regarded a short time ago. Looking at his stats, he was a reliever the past two seasons and struggled with his command. Here is a 2019 scouting report from BA, a partial excerpt from the write-up. https://www.baseballamerica.com/players/9887/shaun-anderson/

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/minor-league-baseball-playoffs-will-return-in-2021/ No playoffs in FCL. But, it is exciting that there will be playoffs again.

I think there will be a time when our inventory is where it needs to be. Then, you can take some bigger risks with higher picks, but only on the right guys. Right now, Elias is still adding talent for the next competitive cycle and he cannot afford big misses, not yet. And by then, we should not be in the top 10-15 picks anyway. I have seen Grayson since high school, so I was happy with the pick at that time. But HS pitchers is the riskiest demographic out there in any draft. But how else do you get them into your organization, right? A lot goes into the evaluation of a pitcher. What is the talent, the upside/projection, and the wear and tear? What is the make up? What would be their development plan, and is your organization able to develop that pitcher?

There is some risk on every pick. Adley has some risk, but a very high floor. Martin had risk in that part of his value was alleged to be defensive versatility. Martin had a 60 hit tool, with 50 power. The risk was that he'd be a 2B, or a LF since his arm was 45-50. That isn't a great value at 1-2. (Look at his stats this year, 43 K's in 142 at bats) Pitchers, no matter how talented, have enormous risk. I think we are arguing about semantics, mostly anyway. https://www.mlb.com/prospects/bluejays/austin-martin-668885 I looked at the schedule. South Alabama and Gonzaga are not as bad as you think. And they lost to Illinois State. But Texas, Baylor and Oklahoma are high level competition. And he mashed against them too. Don't forget they have more data than you and I know about. Team USA, Fall Arkansas data and so on. The scout knew the kid (and the family) for many years, coached his brother. His improvement each year may not show in stats as much, but it is there. You have to watch his video to see it. I have watched a ton of video on him. I followed the kid since he was the SEC Freshman of the Year. I was surprised at the pick, but then I went back and watched the video. His process really was impressive. He improved his physicality and defensive abilities. He played in about as many meaningful games as anyone ever has. SEC, NCAA Regionals, Super Regionals, College World Series and TEAM USA. The kid had been batting 3rd or 4th on all of those teams. He can hit, and he can hit for power. All players are flawed, but his production will be somewhere close to Martin's if he can get healthy. I will bet you a steak dinner on that. We can do this all night, but there are already threads with this stuff in them. I am at work with nothing else to do, at the moment. I am not Mike Elias' caddy. If I think he screws up, I will say so. If he takes Rocker, and pays him slot, I will call that a bad idea based on the pitcher that he has been nearly all of 2021, regardless of what some feel his upside may be.

The risk profile for any pitcher is much higher than a college position player. Injuries end a lot of pitchers' careers before they get started. The risk in Kjerstad's case is mitigated by the under slot signing. What was it again, a $2.1 million savings? They looked closely at the data of his swing and miss and found that he did not miss many pitches that he should swing at. In fact, his contact rate was excellent on pitches in the zone, according to Elias. This is something they feel they can continue to teach him. They felt his pitch recognition was excellent. And, they felt that he was about to explode into the top of the draft like Bleday and others have done in the recent past. Not that I put much into mock drafts, especially last year, but he was mocked by many to go around 7th. The group of players after the first few could have gone in any order up to about 15. And after the draft, the same publications came out and said they did not value Kjerstad as well as they should have. They found out that teams liked him after all, just that no one was talking about it before the draft. Callis said this about two weeks after the draft. I posted the podcast here when it came out. If it makes you happy, I'll say that Rocker is EXTREME RISK, and then I'll say that Kjerstad was a MEDIUM RISK. I would say, for the sake of argument, that Leiter is a HIGH RISK. I believe their profiles are that different. My opinion. Can we just wait about three years and see if Elias is pretty good at this? He has surely made mistakes, and he'll make more. But to judge Kjerstad with no professional sample data seems silly.

Reread what I wrote. He made some improvements to make more contact. Specifically, he swung less at balls outside the zone. His swing decisions became much better, and he did more damage. Minor swing adjustments as well. He improved every year. He competed at a high level, against top competition in the SEC and Internationally. He improved each year. Have we not talked about this enough? They did play a moderate schedule, like all teams. They did play Texas, Baylor and Oklahoma though. And he hit well against them, including a 445 foot home run and a bunt single. So no, I am not kidding. Are you kidding? Or just pushing the same tired anti-Elias schtick?

I listened to it this afternoon. Very good interview, but nothing earth shattering or new. He talked about the added risk of taking a pitcher with a high pick. He also spoke of the dynamics of taking a high school player, and how scouts are able to judge their abilities compared to college players. He also talked about the virtues of judging intangibles. Elias stated he made mistakes early in his career in not spending time to get to know the player. He spoke of the cooperative relationship between player development and scouting departments. He spoke of the PD folks involvement in the draft and the scouts input into the development process. This is awesome.