Greg Pappas
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Posts posted by Greg Pappas
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Scene: Memorial Stadium, 1972 or 1973. I was about 8-years old maybe, and my Dad took me to an O's game and I still remember how nice Rich Coggins was to me, waving and smiling from the field. I was elated. Fan interaction matters.
What are your favorite 'fan interaction' memories?
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Turner & Hooch. Tango & Cash. Abbott & Costello. Sorry... I keed, I keed.
Ripken & Murray!
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Thank you, Frobby. I did not know what wOBA or xwOBA were, but began to look them up and thought this would be helpful to share for those like me that may not know what these two stats are:
QuoteWeighted On-Base Average (wOBA)
wOBA assigns proper value to every possible offensive event that happens while a batter is at the plate. Those proper valuations of singles, doubles, homers, walks, etc., distinguish wOBA from more traditional measures like AVG, OBP, and SLG. Also, for simplicity wOBA is scaled to look like OBP, which means that, say, .400 is elite and .290 is pretty poor. Babe Ruth is the all-time leader with a patently absurd wOBA of .513. You can read more about wOBA at FanGraphs.
Weighted On-Base Average, Expected (xwOBA)
xwOBA grows out of wOBA (see immediately above) and is an estimation of what a hitter's wOBA should be based on things like exit velocity off the bat and launch angle. xwOBA attempts to strip away luck -- bad or good -- and defensive play from wOBA and identify a hitter's baseline skill. It's somewhat useful for getting an idea of how a hitter figures to perform in the near-term future. Basically, if a hitter's xwOBA is significantly lower than his wOBA, he's probably going to come back to earth at some point. There's some evidence that slower players tend to underperform relative to their xwOBA and faster players tend to overperform, but even so xwOBA has utility. On the other side of things, if a hitter's xwOBA is quite a bit higher than his wOBA, then better days are likely ahead. Here's more on xwOBA.
Please note that the following chart is meant as an estimate, and that league-average wOBA varies on a year-by-year basis. It is set to the same scale as OBP, so league-average wOBA in a given year should be very close to the league-average OBP. To see the league-average wOBA for every year from 1901 to the present, check the FanGraphs leaderboards.
wOBA Rules of ThumbRating wOBA Excellent .400 Great .370 Above Average .340 Average .320 Below Average .310 Poor .300 Awful .290 -
@Tony-OHI'm curious to get your thoughts on whether it may make sense to try Holliday in CF? CF is a more valuable position than 2B, and while Bradfield Jr is promising, Holliday should be ready sooner and could (at the minimum) add to his defensive versatility. I'd still have him man 2B the bulk of the time, with starts at SS as well, but it doesn't seem like a bad idea to see how he adapts to it unless he's not fleet footed enough to cover ground well enough out there.
Some may be concerned that it could be a distraction, especially with the switch to 2B seemingly coming, but, again, I'm not sure.
Just spit balling. Thoughts?
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22 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:
In theory it makes sense, but in reality I think it's a flawed strategy. Mostly because of the rarity of prospect for prospect trades and the fact that teams seem to value young pitching more than they value young hitting. So in essence if you take that approach you're paying more than if you would have just taken a more balanced approach to drafting hitters and pitchers.
I wasn't looking at this as their solo strategy, but more of an alternate way of pitching acquisition. As I said in my post, it is rare and also teams with pitching prospects typically want them for themselves, making it a tough thing to pull off.
Drafting pitchers and hitters equally may not be the best way to go about it, as hitters are statistically the more likely group to be successful MLers. I believe that drafting philosophy has been on display thus far in Elias and Sig's tenure to great success, but get where you're coming from. It's tough to know whether Elias/Sig are looking to change up and go heavier with pitching, but it would be a boost to the system if they went pitching heavy this upcoming draft... especially with pick 22, 31, and 34.
Also, I'd disagree that pitching prospects are more valuable than hitting prospects, but there may be teams that view it that way philosophically or perhaps on a case by case basis.. Hard to know for sure. Regardless, to your point, it's not cheap acquiring pitching, whether they're minor leaguers or major leaguers.
An example of such a prospect trade might be Colton Cowser for Mick Abel. Cowser may be the higher ranked prospect, but the deal would seem about right overall. Whether either team would do it is debatable, however.
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6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:
This is all about Elias. My guess is Cowser or Kjerstad and Ortiz could get you Garrett but will Elias move either of the OFers?
At this point, I’m hoping for Cabrera because I think we can get him for a package that Elias is willing to trade and he represents an upside that no other starter that is realistically available to us has.
Cabrera could be a great addition, as he has prime stuff and may cost the least. He's a risk with his wildness (career 5.9 BB9)... but I believe there is a solid chance our pitching coaches can get the best out of him and lower those walk levels to closer to league average.
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4 minutes ago, RZNJ said:
One problem. I doubt very much that someone like Robbie Snelling can be counted on to be a #3 ML starter this year. It’s a fine move for the future but it doesn’t really address what Elias is attempting to do this year.
I agree completely. The thought is in consideration of adding starting pitching talent to the system for 2025 and beyond. Naturally if a good prospect is ML ready, all the merrier. A trade for one of many reportedly available current ML starters would be the likely route for this season.
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4 minutes ago, Otter said:
Yes, gotcha. But I'm thinking it goes beyond rare to wondering if the O's have ever done a trade like that?
In their history? Most likely. But what we've done or haven't done before Elias doesn't really matter outside of being a curiosity.
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5 minutes ago, Otter said:
In theory this sounds good, but how often do you hear about a prospect for prospect trade? Off the top of my head I can't recall the O's ever doing a legit prospect for legit prospect trade. I doubt teams would be keen on trading legit pitching prospects because no matter how much pitching it appears you have, you always need more.
You may have missed this part about it being fairly rare...
33 minutes ago, Greg Pappas said:I've been thinking that if Elias doesn't find the asking price for these ToR MLB pitchers, like Luzardo, Cease, etc..., to his liking, that perhaps another strategy could be the fairly rare trading of a hitting prospect for an equally talented pitching prospect.
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On 1/20/2024 at 10:30 AM, Tony-OH said:
One thing we have not really explored is why Elias has not been able to move his position prospects for pitching prospects. I think this is why he changed his drafting philosophy last year because he realized that teams don't trade starting pitching prospects for positional prospects very often.
The grow the bats, acquire the arms drafting philosophy has been a pretty big question mark so far, and until he makes a trade for a major league veteran #1-#3 starting pitcher, or trades from his positional depth and acquires starting pitching prospects, I will agree with you that this part of his GM skills is still up for evaluation.
I was about to post about this and realized I'd seen it somewhere before, LOL! I had already typed it out, like this:
I've been thinking that if Elias doesn't find the asking price for these ToR MLB pitchers, like Luzardo, Cease, etc..., to his liking, that perhaps another strategy could be the fairly rare trading of a hitting prospect for an equally talented pitching prospect. I'm not talking about low level guys, but those at AAA/AA and highly regarded. There are few to choose from, so the odds are low that we'd find a match, but it could be worth exploring.
LHP Robbie Snelling of the Padres would be my top target, with RHP Mick Abel of the Phillies another solid option. The issue with trades like these is that often starting pitching is a need for the team with the pitching prospects as much as those seeking to trade for them. San Diego needs starters, while the Phillies would seem to be good this year. Regardless, the idea of a prospect swap is intriguing.
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Great win after shaking off the rust!
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39 minutes ago, wildcard said:
The quote is from Tony's November 2023 report on Norby. I will respect the Tony knows more than I do about Norby.
It says Posted November 13, 2022. Maybe I'm missing something?
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This kid may be the second coming... or the 3rd or 4th, depending on your point of view. LOL! God I love our (offensive) system!
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11 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:
No question. I would be interested to know this for sure but my guess is that prospects are older right now because of the COVID year nonsense.
So, you may just have to suck it up and deal with that fact but to sit there and not do these players a favor and get them up here when needed is wrong.
True. FWIW and unless traded, I see Ortiz, Cowser, and Kjerstad with the big league club to start the season. Norby, Holliday, and Mayo are likely set for AAA, though Norby seems the most likely trade candidate among our prospects.
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1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:
I don’t buy it Greg. I don’t think we need to find excuses for Elias. He has to prove that he can make a big deal for a team trying to win. He has yet to prove that. There is risk in everything you do.
I'm not looking to excuse Elias, but rather provide a possible reason he wants to wait until making a big move, as he's thus far been unwilling to meet the asking price(s). Again, just a possible reason.
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5 minutes ago, wildcard said:
Nice post. Thanks for taking the time. Two points:
Norby: He is not a terrible 2B defensively. He is probably average compared to the league. The O's just have three guys that can play 2B at a higher level. Ortiz, Westburg and Holliday are probably all much better at 2B defensively. Norby needs to be traded because he is blocked but let's not down play his average defense at 2B.
From @Tony-OH's writeup on Norby in his November, 2022 Top Prospects feature:
QuoteDefensively, Norby is not going to provide much value at second base. While he showed improvements in limiting his throwing errors, he still struggles to get his feet under him well and is inconsistent. His range is suspect and he turns the double play a bit slow. He just never looks real smooth out there, but if a team is willing to put up with the below average defense, the bat should play well for the position. He did play 11 games in left field including 8 starts.
Now, if Tony's opinion/information on Norby's D at 2B has changed since then, I submit I could be wrong, but I have not read anything that supports that. Tony?
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1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:
Good recap, well done. The only nit pick is that Mayo has only reportedly been working in RF, not that he has any professional experience there.
At the end of the day, Elias has more major league ready players available to him than he has playing time. Sure, having depth is nice, but it's not like you can just plug and play rookies in the middle of the season and expect good results because most take some adjustment time.
My personal opinion is the Orioles see their 2024 starting infield as:
1B: Mountcastle
2B: Westburg
SS: Ortiz
3B: HendersonUrias, Mateo, and O'Hearn are all backup plans though I expect Mateo to be the utility guy because of his ability to play SS and the outfield, hit left-handers a bit, and of course his speed.
No matter what they say, I think Holliday and Mayo will start the year in AAA.
The outfield is where it gets really interesting:
With an an outfield that seems set with:
LF: Hays
CF: Mullins
RF: SantanderWhere does that leave Kjerstad and Cowser? Kjerstad should be on this team instead of O'Hearn, with Santander moving to 1B and Kjerstad to RF when when he's not DHing. There is probably 400 PAs for Kjerstad if O'Hearn is moved.
I'm not sure the Orioles are willing to bring up Cowser as a 4th outfielder so I would imagine without moves, he's back to AAA.
Norby is the guy that will either need to show that he can play outfield well enough to compete with McKenna and Hilliard for 4th/5th outfielder but if not he's going back to AAA. He's a traditional slow starter so that might be for the best anyways but I hope they play him a lot in the outfield if he goes back.
I just hope that guys who go back to AAA don't sulk. At some point it's got to be mentally tiresome to be playing in AAA when you know you are good enough to play in the majors somewhere.
Thanks Tony. I agree with you that the infield you showed above is our likeliest to start the season. I hope so anyway. I don't think Hays is set in LF, as I see Cowser platooning with him. Hays' career OPS v RHP is .738 with an OPS+ of 97, while his career OPS v LHP is .779 with an OPS+ of 107. I think Cowser would be better against RHP than Hays and may eventually displace Hays altogether by year's end. Just my own personal take... I could be wrong.
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...is that he considers none of our best young players or prospects as truly expendable... YET.
Obviously, current studs Henderson (22.7) and Rutschman (26.1) will not be dealt.
- Holliday (20.3) is the game's top prospect and is about as untouchable as one would expect. While he shows promise at SS, he currently projects as our future 2B. I suspect he'll start the season splitting action at 2B and SS in Norfolk and take over at 2B in Baltimore as soon as he's deemed ready. With that said, we shouldn't discount the possibility of him breaking camp with the big club.
- Westburg (25.1) is a promising player and is expected to be our starting 2B or 3B, pending a number of scenarios. Perhaps he's not expendable without knowing whether Holliday breaks camp with us at 2B, or even Mayo at 3B. Neither seems likely. Gunnar could move to 3B with Ortiz taking over at SS, but, again, it's not currently known how things will shake out. Until that shaking occurs, Westburg seems valuable moving forward, especially if Mayo shows no improvement at 3B, coupled with Gunnar remaining at SS. Westburg could be a super utility guy as soon as some point later this season, though if he has no starting spot, his trade availability increases.
- Ortiz (25.7) has nothing left to prove at AAA. As noted above, he may be our new SS, pushing Gunnar over to 3B. However, with Gunnar establishing himself as a quality defender at SS, it's not yet clear whether the O's would seek to move him for Ortiz. While Ortiz could start at 2B, it would be reasonable to expect that he'd instead be inserted as our starting SS. Some point out that Ortiz can handle 3B as well, making him a possible utility guy, but one might think that his value as a major league ready starting SS would be better utilized in trade.
- Mayo (22.3) is rightfully among the top prospects in the game, mostly based on his middle-of-the-order offensive profile. The unknown is his defensive position. He has come up as a 3B in the minors, with some time at 1B and RF as well. Determining his defensive home will be is among the more interesting storylines for the upcoming season. Some hope that will be at 3B, though even the kindest estimates have him as average at best. RF or 1B seem like solid alternatives, with his rocket arm probably best served in RF. 1B could be in play with neither Mountcastle or O'Hearn secure at 1B in the long term. Like the others listed here, Mayo is one of many puzzle pieces with currently unknown destinations.
- Basallo (19.6) is unlikely to factor into our plans this season, but as yet another great top prospect, his meteoric ascension may show no signs of slowing. Even with Rutschman securely entrenched at catcher, Basallo could push for inclusion on the team by year's end. I wouldn't go so far as to call him untouchable, but he's special enough for that to be given serious consideration.
- Norby (23.8) has a bat that seems ready for the big leagues, but with no obvious defensive home, his future in Baltimore is muddied. He can play 2B in a pinch but would not be an option there long term, and may be destined to be a DH/LF. Of all of our prospects, Norby stands out as the one that actually is expendable, but he alone may not be able to bring back the sort of difference maker we'd want.
- Kjerstad (25.1) and Cowser (24.0) are both ready for the show and with the entire outfield's future in doubt, there are opportunities for both. With that said, Kjerstad's defense in RF could push him to DH/1B. Cowser seems primed to push Hays for playing time in LF, and while Mullins has no heir in CF and may remain until Bradfield is deemed ready, Cowser may see time there as well. Santander seems secure as our starting RF, but as a FA at year's end, it's not out of the realm of possibility to see him dealt.
*ages as of opening day are listed in parentheses
Based on these many scenarios, things may become more clear this Spring, enabling Elias to pull off a big deal, but it wouldn't be surprising to see him waiting until the deadline to pull the trigger. Thoughts?
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23 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:
No. Not trading the elite bat/position player for elite pitcher. Too much injury risk for the pitcher.
Yeah... this is where I ended up as well... but it sure is tempting.
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27 minutes ago, interloper said:
Hell no. Respectfully.
Basallo, sure. But Holliday being a MI and his elite skills playing every single day I would take over a top SP prospect.
The 6' 8 Perez was great last year in his rookie season, as a 20-year old. He has all the makings of a true #1, and though he did end the season in late September with left SI joint inflammation (Perez is right handed) it shouldn't be an issue moving forward. I thought a stud like Perez would be one of only a few guys pitchers I'd consider dealing Holliday for, and thought it'd be fun to see what others here thought.
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Would you trade Jackson Holliday to the Marlins for Eury Perez? In this scenario, the Marlins would be agreeable to a straight up one for one trade.
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33 minutes ago, Jagwar said:
Thanks GP! My only observation would be that Ortiz is too high on the depth chart 2B/SS. He seems to be the odd man out with Mateo and Urias still on the roster.
Thank you. The Depth Chart is parts history and speculation, so how it shakes out will reveal itself this Spring.
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7 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:
Nice Greg …. A couple of thoughts.
Weve discussed Ortiz at SS so I’m not sure why you can’t put him at SS over Gunner. I think those 2 are our best defensive set of any listed.
Im sure it’s splitting hairs but O’Hearn was used a number of times in RF last season. I expect Hyde to do so again if his bat continues to play like it did in 2023.
Thank you. I believe Ortiz at SS makes sense, but our RoY played very well there and I could not put Ortiz over him until I see what Hyde does this Spring.
O'Hearn is listed 2nd in RF, behind Santander.
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6 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:
Deep depth. Much respect for being realistic.
I think Hilliard should be higher, but we’ll see what happens. It’s not a big deal anyways.
Aaron Hicks could be in the mix. Bring back the OH’s lovable vet.
Thanks. Hilliard was, IMHO, a depth signing, and one I'd be surprised to find on our roster Opening Day. He's about to turn 30, and has had 717 PA's over a 5-year career. His outfield defense is hard to judge for me, but seems modest, as has been his hitting, as he's sported a career 84 OPS+.
Your favorite 'fan interaction' memories
in Orioles Talk
Posted
Yeah, Brooks is, was, and always will be my favorite player. This isn't my story, but a friend of mine was at a local rec center as a teen and was excited to go to the game that evening with his Dad, but his Dad was unable to take him. Incredibly, Brooks happened to be at that center and heard what was going on, and arranged to take him to the game. I was always told he was great player and supposedly an even better person.